Predicting common maternal postpartum complications: leveraging health administrative data and machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the risk of common maternal postpartum complications requiring an inpatient episode of care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Maternal data from the beginning of gestation up to and including the delivery, and neonatal data recorded at delivery, were used to predict postpartum complications. SAMPLE: Administrative health data of all inpatient live births (n = 422 509) in the Australian state of Queensland between January 2009 and October 2015. METHOD: Gradient boosted trees were used with five-fold cross-validation to compare model performance. The best performing models for each outcome were then assessed in the independent validation data using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC-ROC). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Postpartum complications occurring in the first 12 weeks after delivery requiring hospital admission. RESULTS: Postpartum hypertensive disorders obtained good discrimination in the independent validation data (AUC = 0.879, 95% CI 0.846-0.912), as did obstetric surgical wound infection (AUC = 0.856, 95% CI 0.838-0.873), whereas postpartum sepsis and haemorrhage obtained poor discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that routinely collected health data have the potential to play an important role in helping determine women's risk of common postpartum complications leading to hospital admission. This information can be presented to clinical staff after delivery to help guide immediate postpartum care, delayed discharge, and post-discharge patient follow up. For such a system to be effective and valued, it must produce accurate predictions, and our findings suggest areas where routine data collection could be strengthened to this end. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Improved prediction of maternal postnatal hypertensive disorders and wound infection via machine learning.

The natural history of risky drinking and associated harms from adolescence to young adulthood: findings from the Australian Temperament Project.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe the natural history of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and associated harms from adolescence to young adulthood in a large Australian population cohort study. METHOD: The Australian Temperament Project consists of mothers and babies (4-8 months) recruited from Infant Welfare Centres and followed every 2 to 4 years until age 28 years. Analyses were based on data from 1156 young people (497 male; 659 female) surveyed repeatedly at ages 16, 18, 20, 24 and 28 years. We used dual processes latent class growth analysis to estimate trajectories of HED and associated harms, employing a piecewise approach to model the hypothesized rise and subsequent fall across adolescence and the late twenties, respectively. RESULTS: We identified four sex-specific trajectories and observed little evidence of maturing-out across the twenties. In males, a normative pattern of increasing HED across the twenties with little related harm was observed (40% of the male sample). Early and late starter groups that peaked in harms at age 20 years with only minor attenuation in binging thereafter were also observed (6.1% and 35%, respectively). In females, a normative pattern of increasing, but moderate, HED with little related harm was observed (44% of the female sample). Early and late starter groups were also identified (18% and 17%, respectively); however, unlike males, the female late starter group showed a pattern of increasing HED and related harms. CONCLUSIONS: Continued patterns of risky alcohol use and related harms are apparent for both males and females across the twenties.

Intellectual disability and patient activation after release from prison: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Intellectual disability and patient activation may be important drivers of inequities in health service access and health outcomes for people with intellectual disability transitioning from prison to the community. We assessed the association between intellectual disability and patient activation after prison release and examined whether this association varied, depending on whether intellectual disability was identified prior to prison release. METHODS: Overall, 936 prisoners were screened for intellectual disability by using the Hayes Ability Screening Index and completed the Patient Activation Measure (PAM) within 6 weeks of prison release and again at 1, 3 and 6 months post-release. We estimated the association between intellectual disability status and PAM scores by using a multilevel linear model, adjusting for sociodemographic, behavioural, health and criminogenic factors. We used propensity score matching to estimate the impact of being identified with intellectual disability prior to release from prison on the change in mean PAM score after prison release. RESULTS: Compared with those who screened negative for intellectual disability, ex-prisoners who screened positive, both with and without prior identification of intellectual disability, had significantly decreased mean PAM scores [(B = -4.3; 95% CI: -6.3, -2.4) and (B = -4.5; 95% CI: -6.8, -2.3), respectively] over 6 months of follow-up. Among those who reported being identified with intellectual disability prior to release from prison, a significant increase in PAM score at the 6-month follow-up interview (B = 5.89; 95% CI: 2.35, 9.42; P = 0.001) was attributable to being identified with intellectual disability prior to release. CONCLUSIONS: Ex-prisoners screening positive for possible intellectual disability have decreased patient activation for at least 6 months after release from prison. However, individuals whose possible intellectual disability is unidentified appear to be particularly vulnerable. Incarceration is a pivotal opportunity for the identification of intellectual disability and for initiating transitional linkages to health and intellectual disability-specific community services for this marginalised population.

Generational increase in obesity among young women: a prospective analysis of mother-daughter dyads.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Increases in obesity in young adults over recent decades are shown by national survey data but have yet to be replicated using prospective data. We aim to quantify the increase in obesity and overweight over two generations of young adult women using prospective measures of body mass index (BMI). SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data are from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a prospective pre-birth cohort study started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. Analyses were restricted to 992 mother-daughter dyads who were at similar ages at the time they were assessed and for whom measures of BMI were available. We also conducted an additional analysis to test whether there was a similar increase amongst father-son dyads. We used multinomial logistic regression for clustered data to compare the same prospective measures of BMI categories between mother and daughters. RESULTS: Controlling for a number of sociodemographic and lifestyle factors in the female sample, daughters had 5.04 (3.03, 8.85) times the odds of being obese and 2.54 (1.86, 3.54) times the odds of being overweight compared with their mothers. A large increase in obesity was also observed in the male sample. CONCLUSIONS: Using a longitudinal design to partly account for familial confounding of obesity risk factors, this study confirms a large and concerning increases in obesity rates over two generations of young adults and suggests increases in obesity over the past 20 years may be greater than previously anticipated.

The natural history of internalizing behaviours from adolescence to emerging adulthood: findings from the Australian Temperament Project.

BACKGROUND: The aims of the study were to describe the patterning and persistence of anxiety and depressive symptoms from adolescence to young adulthood and to examine long-term developmental relationships with earlier patterns of internalizing behaviours in childhood. METHOD: We used parallel processes latent growth curve modelling to build trajectories of internalizing from adolescence to adulthood, using seven waves of follow-ups (ages 11-27 years) from 1406 participants of the Australian Temperament Project. We then used latent factors to capture the stability of maternal reported child internalizing symptoms across three waves of early childhood follow-ups (ages 5, 7 and 9 years), and examined relationships among these patterns of symptoms across the three developmental periods, adjusting for gender and socio-economic status. RESULTS: We observed strong continuity in depressive symptoms from adolescence to young adulthood. In contrast, adolescent anxiety was not persistent across the same period, nor was it related to later depressive symptoms. Anxiety was, however, related to non-specific stress in young adulthood, but only moderately so. Although childhood internalizing was related to adolescent and adult profiles, the associations were weak and indirect by adulthood, suggesting that other factors are important in the development of internalizing symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Once established, adolescent depressive symptoms are not only strongly persistent, but also have the potential to differentiate into anxiety in young adulthood. Relationships with childhood internalizing symptoms are weak, suggesting that early adolescence may be an important period for targeted intervention, but also that further research into the childhood origins of internalizing behaviours is needed.

Trajectories of psychological distress after prison release: implications for mental health service need in ex-prisoners.

BACKGROUND: Understanding individual-level changes in mental health status after prison release is crucial to providing targeted and effective mental health care to ex-prisoners. We aimed to describe trajectories of psychological distress following prison discharge and compare these trajectories with mental health service use in the community. METHOD: The Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) was administered to 1216 sentenced adult prisoners in Queensland, Australia, before prison release and approximately 1, 3 and 6 months after release. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify K10 trajectories after release. Contact with community mental health services in the year following release was assessed via data linkage. RESULTS: We identified five trajectory groups, representing consistently low (51.1% of the cohort), consistently moderate (29.8%), high increasing (11.6%), high declining (5.5%) and consistently very high (1.9%) psychological distress. Mood disorder, anxiety disorder, history of self-harm and risky drug use were risk factors for the high increasing, very high and high declining trajectory groups. Women were over-represented in the high increasing and high declining groups, but men were at higher risk of very high psychological distress. Within the high increasing and very high groups, 25% of participants accessed community mental health services in the first year post-release, for a median of 4.4 contact hours. CONCLUSIONS: For the majority of prisoners with high to very high psychological distress, distress persists after release. However, contact with mental health services in the community appears low. Further research is required to understand barriers to mental health service access among ex-prisoners.

Maternal depression and family adversity: Linked pathways to offspring depression?

There is conflicting evidence about the contribution of maternal depression and family adversity to depression experienced by offspring. Because maternal depression and family adversity are related, there is a need to determine how they independently contribute to offspring depression. Data are from a long-running prospective birth cohort study (Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes - MUSP). For this study some 2200 offspring were followed up at 30 years of age. We first examine the association between maternal depression and family adversity over the period from the pregnancy to the child reaching adulthood. Then we consider the extent to which maternal depression and family adversity trajectories over this period predict CIDI/DSM-IV episodes of depression in the offspring of these mothers at 30 years of age. We find a strong bi-directional association between maternal depression and family experiences of adverse life events over the entire period the child is at home. After adjustment, children reared in a family experiencing high levels of adverse life events are more likely to experience a lifetime ever DSM-IV diagnosis of depression, are more likely to have experienced multiple episodes of lifetime ever depression, and are more likely to report their first episode of depression was at a younger age. The findings suggest the association between maternal depression and offspring depression appears to be partly attributable to the higher levels of family adversity characteristic of depressed mothers.

Trajectories of maternal depression: a 27-year population-based prospective study.

AIMS: To identify distinct trajectories of depression experienced by a population-based sample of women over a 27-year period and to assess the validity of the derived trajectories. METHOD: The Mater University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy is a birth cohort study which commenced in 1981. Women (N = 6753) were interviewed at their first clinic visit, at 6 months, then 5, 14, 21 and 27 years after the birth of their child, using the Delusions Symptoms - States Inventory. Some 3561 (52.7%) women were followed up at 27 years, with 3337 (49.4%) of the sample completing the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Depression trajectories over a 27-year period were identified using Latent Class Growth Modelling (LCGM). LCGM was used to identify respondents with similar patterns of depression over a 27-year period. At the 27-year follow-up women who completed the CIDI, were stratified according to their trajectory group membership. RESULTS: Three trajectory groups, each with different life-course patterns of depression were identified. The low/no symptoms of depression trajectory group comprised 48.4% of women. The mid-depression group (41.7%) had a consistent pattern of occasional symptoms of depression. The high/escalating trajectory group comprised 9.9% of the women in the study. We then examined each trajectory group based on their completion of the CIDI at the 27-year follow-up. Using the CIDI, 27.0% of women in the study had met the DSM-IV criteria for lifetime ever depression by their mean age of 46.5 years. The responses to the CIDI differed greatly for each of the trajectory groups, suggesting that the trajectories validly reflect different life histories of depression. The high/escalating trajectory group had an earlier age of first onset, more frequent episodes, longer duration of each episode of depression and experienced higher levels of impairment for their episodes of depression. For the high symptoms trajectory group, clinically significant depression is estimated to be experienced by women almost one in every 6 days of their life. CONCLUSION: While symptoms of depression are commonly experienced in a large community-based sample of women, a minority of women experience many episodes of depression in their lifetime. It is this group of women who are most impaired and should be of most concern, and who should be the main target of prevention and treatment initiatives.

The role of parental alcohol use, parental discipline and antisocial behaviour on adolescent drinking trajectories.

BACKGROUNDS: Parental drinking, harsh parental discipline and adolescent antisocial behaviour have been independently implicated in adolescent alcohol use. Robust prospective studies are required to examine developmental relationships between these factors and their effect on trajectories of alcohol use across adolescence. METHODS: Data were ascertained at three consecutive adolescent waves (13.5, 15.5 and 17.5 years) from the Australian Temperament Project, a 15-wave (30 year) general population birth cohort in Victoria, Australia. Adolescent alcohol trajectories, adjusted for time-varying measures of parenting and antisocial behaviour, were regressed on time-stable measures of parental alcohol use. The full case analysis comprised 751 individuals with complete data. RESULTS: Two distinct alcohol trajectories were identified across the three adolescent waves after adjusting for time-varying factors: a higher and lower drinking group. Both trajectories increased linearly over the study period. Antisocial behaviour was positively associated with both trajectories while harsh parental discipline was positively associated with alcohol use in the lower-use group only. Increased maternal and paternal drinking at 13.5 years placed teenagers at a greater risk of being included in the high-risk trajectory. CONCLUSION: Parental drinking was the strongest predictor of different drinking trajectories in adolescence. This finding underscores the importance of comprehensive public heath approaches that target both parental and adolescent drinking attitudes and behaviour.

The relationship between age and risky injecting behaviours among a sample of Australian people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence suggests that younger people who inject drugs (PWID) engage in high-risk injecting behaviours. This study aims to better understand the relationships between age and risky injecting behaviours. METHODS: Data were taken from 11 years of a repeat cross-sectional study of sentinel samples of regular PWID (The Australian Illicit Drug Reporting System, 2001-2011). Multivariable Poisson regression was used to explore the relationship between age and four outcomes of interest: last drug injection occurred in public, receptive needle sharing (past month), experiencing injecting-related problems (e.g. abscess, dirty hit; past month), and non-fatal heroin overdose (past six months). RESULTS: Data from 6795 first-time study participants were analysed (median age: 33 years, interquartile range [IQR]: 27-40; median duration of injecting: 13 years [IQR: 7-20]). After adjusting for factors including duration of injecting, each five year increase in age was associated with significant reductions in public injecting (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR]: 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.92), needle sharing (AIRR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.79-0.89) and injecting-related problems (AIRR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.97). Among those who had injected heroin in the six months preceding interview, each five year increase in age was associated with an average 10% reduction in the risk of heroin overdose (AIRR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.85-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Older PWID report significantly lower levels of high-risk injecting practices than younger PWID. Although they make up a small proportion of the current PWID population, younger PWID remain an important group for prevention and harm reduction.

Moderate alcohol consumption contributes to women's well-being through the menopausal transition.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of alcohol consumption with well-being in mid-aged Australian women, taking into account other lifestyle factors. METHODS: A prospective, observational study was carried out among 438 urban Australian women aged 45-55 years at baseline. They were assessed annually for 8 years using a questionnaire on health and lifestyle, including self-ratings of well-being and daily 'hassles'. Statistical analyses were performed using cluster and repeated measures analyses. RESULTS: About 80% of the women had consumed alcohol in the week preceding the interview. Alcohol intake was weakly associated with well-being overall (p = 0.094). Women who consumed alcohol at moderate levels had higher well-being scores than non-drinkers or heavy drinkers, however, provided they were also non-smokers and exercised weekly or more (p for interaction = 0.023) (21% of all study participants). Everyday symptoms and stresses had a negative impact on well-being (all p values < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among women undergoing menopausal transition, well-being is positively associated with moderate alcohol consumption along with other lifestyle factors in a synergistic fashion, rather than any individual factor having a dominant or an independent effect.

Increasing body mass index from age 5 to 14 years predicts asthma among adolescents: evidence from a birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and asthma are common disorders, and the prevalence of both has increased in recent decades. It has been suggested that increases in the prevalence of obesity might in part explain the increase in asthma prevalence. This study aims to examine the prospective association between change in body mass index (BMI) z-score between ages 5 and 14 years and asthma symptoms at 14 years. METHODS: Data was taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes (MUSP), a birth cohort of 7223 mothers and children started in Brisbane (Australia) in 1981. BMI was measured at age 5 and 14 years. Asthma was assessed from maternal reports of symptoms at age 5 and 14 years. In this study analyses were conducted on 2911 participants who had information on BMI and asthma at both ages. RESULTS: BMI z-score at age 14 and the change in BMI z-score from age 5 to 14-years were positively associated with asthma symptoms at age 14 years, whereas BMI z-score at age 5 was not associated with asthma at age 14. Adjustment for a range of early-life exposures did not substantially alter these findings. The association between change in BMI z-score with asthma symptoms at 14 years appeared stronger for male subjects compared with female subjects but there was no statistical evidence for a sex difference (P=0.36). CONCLUSIONS: Increase in BMI z-score between age 5 and 14 years is associated with increased risk of asthma symptoms in adolescence.