A century of statistical Ecology.

As data and computing power have surged in recent decades, statistical modeling has become an important tool for understanding ecological patterns and processes. Statistical modeling in ecology faces two major challenges. First, ecological data may not conform to traditional methods, and second, professional ecologists often do not receive extensive statistical training. In response to these challenges, the journal Ecology has published many innovative statistical ecology papers that introduced novel modeling methods and provided accessible guides to statistical best practices. In this paper, we reflect on Ecology's history and its role in the emergence of the subdiscipline of statistical ecology, which we define as the study of ecological systems using mathematical equations, probability, and empirical data. We showcase 36 influential statistical ecology papers that have been published in Ecology over the last century and, in so doing, comment on the evolution of the field. As data and computing power continue to increase, we anticipate continued growth in statistical ecology to tackle complex analyses and an expanding role for Ecology to publish innovative and influential papers, advancing the discipline and guiding practicing ecologists.

Light and thermal niches of ground-foraging Amazonian insectivorous birds.

Insectivores of the tropical rainforest floor are consistently among the most vulnerable birds to forest clearing and fragmentation. Several hypotheses attempt to explain this pattern, including sensitivity to extreme microclimates found near forest borders, particularly brighter and warmer conditions. Importantly, this "microclimate hypothesis" has additional implications for intact forest under global climate change that could be evaluated through direct assessment of the light and temperature environment of terrestrial insectivores. In this study, we harness novel technology to directly quantify the light and thermal niches of 10 species of terrestrial insectivores in undisturbed Amazonian rainforest. Loggers placed on birds (N = 33) and their environment (N = 9) recorded nearly continuous microclimate data from 2017 to 2019, amassing >5 million measurements. We found that midday light intensity in tree fall gaps (~39,000 lux) was >40 times higher than at the ground level of forest interior (950 lux). Light intensity registered by sensors placed on birds averaged 17.4 (range 3.9-41.5) lux, with species using only 4.3% (0.9%-10.4%) of available light on the forest floor. Birds therefore selected very dark microhabitats-the light environment was >2200 times brighter in tree fall gaps. Bird thermal niche was a function of ambient temperature as well as body temperature, which averaged >40.5°C but varied among species. Forest floor temperature peaked daily at 27.0°C, whereas bird loggers averaged 35.1°C (34.5-35.7°C) at midday. The antpitta Myrmothera campanisona and the antthrush Formicarius colma used thermal conditions closest to their body temperatures, whereas leaftossers (Sclerurus spp.) and Myrmornis torquata occupied relatively cool microclimates. We found no general link between abundance trends and variation in species-specific light and thermal niches. However, all species occupied markedly dim and cool microclimates. Because such conditions are rare outside the interior of primary forest, these results support the microclimate hypothesis in disturbed landscapes. Moreover, strong avoidance of conditions that are becoming more common under climate change highlights the vulnerability of terrestrial insectivores even in the absence of disturbance and may be the reason for enigmatic declines in Amazonia and elsewhere.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up.

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Morphological consequences of climate change for resident birds in intact Amazonian rainforest.

Warming from climate change is expected to reduce body size of endotherms, but studies from temperate systems have produced equivocal results. Over four decades, we collected morphometric data on a nonmigratory understory bird community within Amazonian primary rainforest that is experiencing increasingly extreme climate. All 77 species showed lower mean mass since the early 1980s­nearly half with 95% confidence. A third of species concomitantly increased wing length, driving a decrease in mass:wing ratio for 69% of species. Seasonal precipitation patterns were generally better than temperature at explaining morphological variation. Short-term climatic conditions affected all metrics, but time trends in wing and mass:wing remained robust even after controlling for annual seasonal conditions. We attribute these results to pressures to increase resource economy under warming. Both seasonal and long-term morphological shifts suggest response to climate change and highlight its pervasive consequences, even in the heart of the world's largest rainforest.

Insecticidal activity of synthetic amides on Spodoptera frugiperda.

The phytochemistry of the genus Piper (Piperaceae) has been widely studied due to the biological properties of amides from these plants. In this work, we have synthesized and evaluated the toxic effect of 11 amides against the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda larvae. The naturally occurring piperine was also evaluated. The most active amide was N-[3-(3',4'-methylenedioxyphenyl)-2-(E)-propenoyl]piperidine with a LD50 of 1.07 microg mg(-1) larvae. This amide was also evaluated by ingestion.