Mating competitiveness of irradiated flies for screwworm fly eradication campaigns.

Should the screwworm fly invade Australia, the sterile insect technique (as used successfully overseas) is currently the only feasible method of eradication. Used in conjunction with chemical control methods, it relies on large numbers of factory-reared, sterilized males competing successfully with wild males for the wild females. However, laboratory and field studies have shown that the processes of mass rearing, irradiation and distribution seriously impair the competitiveness of the sterilized flies. This study collates and analyses the relatively sparse information on the relative mating competitiveness of sterilized screwworm flies, from both controlled experiments and large-scale field studies. A population dynamics example then demonstrates that competitiveness will be a key parameter in the effectiveness and economic feasibility of any future eradication campaign.

Comparison of the predicted impact of a screwworm fly outbreak in Australia using a growth index model and a life-cycle model.

The spatial population dynamics of an Old World screwworm fly, Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (OWS), outbreak in Australia have been modelled in two ways. The first model uses weekly growth indices derived from climatic data to predict the adult female population. The second is a detailed cohort life-cycle model. Due to technical and time constraints, the growth index model is preferred as the biological component of a much larger bioeconomic model because of its smaller program size and faster execution. In deciding whether adoption of the growth index model would be at the expense of scientific accuracy, the life-cycle model was developed as a yardstick. We showed that the growth index model was a practical and adequate substitution for the OWS life-cycle model and a novel spatial/temporal modelling approach with generic qualities. We elaborate on the previously reported growth index model, describe the life-cycle model and compare the results of both models. In the event of an OWS incursion in northern or eastern Australia, given average climatic conditions, both models predict that most of the suitable range (some 2.3M km2) will be colonized within 4-5 years if an eradication campaign is not attempted. Much of its permanent range would be in tropical and subtropical extensive grazing regions. Where computer or funding resources are restrictive, models incorporating growth indices may prove adequate for spatial population studies of some species.