A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Functional status predicts postoperative mortality after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Frail patients are more vulnerable to perioperative stressors of liver transplantation (LT). Program Specific Reports, used in transplant center auditing, risk-adjust for frailty using the Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scale. We evaluate the extent to which functional impairment/disability is associated with increased risk of postoperative death. METHODS: We included 24 505 first-time LT recipients from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (2006-2011). We categorized patients as Severe, Moderate, or Normal function/disability using the KPS scale and evaluated risk of 30- and 90-day mortality. Analyses took potential center-specific differences in KPS measurement protocols into account using hierarchal logistic modeling. RESULTS: Over one-quarter of our population was Severely impaired/disabled, and 30.5% had no functional limitations. Severely and Moderately impaired/disabled patients had 2.56 (95% CI 1.91-3.44) and 1.40 (95% CI 1.10-1.78) times the odds of 30-day mortality, respectively, after adjusting for key recipient and donor factors. Estimates remained consistent regardless of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, medical condition, or clustering analyses by center. Technical/operative complications and multiorgan failure/hemorrhage were more common causes of death among more Severely disabled patients than in higher functioning groups. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-transplant functional status, assessed using the KPS scale, is a reliable predictor of post-LT mortality in the United States.

Frequency and impact of intensive care unit complications on moderate-severe traumatic brain injury: early results of the Outcome Prognostication in Traumatic Brain Injury (OPTIMISM) Study.

BACKGROUND: Known predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with moderate-severe TBI (msTBI) explain only a relatively small proportion of patient-related outcomes. The frequency and impact of intensive care unit complications (ICU-COMPL) on msTBI-associated outcomes are poorly understood. METHODS: In 213 consecutive msTBI patients admitted to a Level I Trauma Center neuro trauma ICU, twenty-eight ICU-COMPL (21 medical and 7 neurological) were prospectively collected and adjudicated by group consensus, using pre-defined criteria. We determined frequencies, and explored associations of ICU-COMPL and hospital discharge outcomes using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The average age of the study sample was 53 years, and the median presenting Glasgow Coma Scale and Injury Severity Scores were 5 and 27, respectively. Hyperglycemia (79%), fever (62%), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (60%), and hypotension requiring vasopressors (42%) were the four most common medical ICU-COMPL. Herniation (39%), intracranial rebleed (39%), and brain edema requiring osmotherapy (37%) were the three most common neurological ICU-COMPL. After adjusting for admission variables, duration of ventilation, and ICU length-of-stay, patients with brain edema (OR 5.8; 95% CI 2, 16.7) had a significantly increased odds for dying during hospitalization whereas patients with hospital-acquired urinary tract infection (UTI) had a decreased odds (OR 0.05; 95% CI 0.005, 0.6). Sensitivity analysis revealed that UTI occurred later, suggesting a non-causal association with survival. Brain herniation (OR 15.7; 95% CI 2.6, 95.4) was associated with an unfavorable functional status (GOS 1-3). CONCLUSION: ICU-COMPL are very common after msTBI, have a considerable impact on short-term outcomes, and should be considered in the prognostication of these high risk patients. Survival associations of time-dependent complications warrant cautious interpretation.

Prospective observational studies to assess comparative effectiveness: the ISPOR good research practices task force report.

OBJECTIVE: In both the United States and Europe there has been an increased interest in using comparative effectiveness research of interventions to inform health policy decisions. Prospective observational studies will undoubtedly be conducted with increased frequency to assess the comparative effectiveness of different treatments, including as a tool for "coverage with evidence development," "risk-sharing contracting," or key element in a "learning health-care system." The principle alternatives for comparative effectiveness research include retrospective observational studies, prospective observational studies, randomized clinical trials, and naturalistic ("pragmatic") randomized clinical trials. METHODS: This report details the recommendations of a Good Research Practice Task Force on Prospective Observational Studies for comparative effectiveness research. Key issues discussed include how to decide when to do a prospective observational study in light of its advantages and disadvantages with respect to alternatives, and the report summarizes the challenges and approaches to the appropriate design, analysis, and execution of prospective observational studies to make them most valuable and relevant to health-care decision makers. RECOMMENDATIONS: The task force emphasizes the need for precision and clarity in specifying the key policy questions to be addressed and that studies should be designed with a goal of drawing causal inferences whenever possible. If a study is being performed to support a policy decision, then it should be designed as hypothesis testing-this requires drafting a protocol as if subjects were to be randomized and that investigators clearly state the purpose or main hypotheses, define the treatment groups and outcomes, identify all measured and unmeasured confounders, and specify the primary analyses and required sample size. Separate from analytic and statistical approaches, study design choices may strengthen the ability to address potential biases and confounding in prospective observational studies. The use of inception cohorts, new user designs, multiple comparator groups, matching designs, and assessment of outcomes thought not to be impacted by the therapies being compared are several strategies that should be given strong consideration recognizing that there may be feasibility constraints. The reasoning behind all study design and analytic choices should be transparent and explained in study protocol. Execution of prospective observational studies is as important as their design and analysis in ensuring that results are valuable and relevant, especially capturing the target population of interest, having reasonably complete and nondifferential follow-up. Similar to the concept of the importance of declaring a prespecified hypothesis, we believe that the credibility of many prospective observational studies would be enhanced by their registration on appropriate publicly accessible sites (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov and encepp.eu) in advance of their execution.

Management patterns of non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes in relation to prior coronary revascularization.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary guidelines support an early invasive strategy for non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) patients who had prior coronary revascularization. However, little is known about the management pattern of these patients in "real world." METHODS: We analyzed 3 consecutive Canadian registries (ACS I, ACS II, and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events [GRACE]/expanded-GRACE) that recruited 12,483 NSTE-ACS patients from June 1999 to December 2007. We stratified the study population according to prior coronary revascularization status into 4 groups and compared their clinical characteristics, in-hospital use of medications, and cardiac procedures. RESULTS: Of the 12,483 NSTE-ACS patients, 71.2% had no prior revascularization, 14.2% had percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) only, 9.5% had coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) only, and 5% had both PCI and CABG. Compared to their counterparts without prior revascularization, patients with previous PCI and/or CABG were more likely to be male, to have diabetes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure but less likely to have ST-segment deviation or positive cardiac biomarker on presentation. Early use of evidence-based medications was higher among patients with previous PCI only and lower among patients with previous CABG only. After adjusting for possible confounders including GRACE risk score, prior PCI was independently associated with in-hospital use of cardiac catheterization (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.34, P = .008). In contrast, previous CABG was an independent negative predictor (adjusted OR .77, 95% CI 0.68-0.87, P < .001). There was no significant interaction (P = .93) between previous PCI and CABG. CONCLUSIONS: The NSTE-ACS patients with previous PCI were more likely to be treated invasively. Conversely, patients with prior CABG less frequently received invasive therapy. Future studies should determine the appropriateness of this treatment discrepancy.

Outcomes research in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: lessons learned from the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical assessment, research, and education database.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the care of patients with ALS following the publication of the standardized recommendations for the management of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) published in 1999 by the American Academy of Neurology. METHODS: Specific aspects of ALS patient management have been evaluated serially using a national Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Clinical Assessment, Research, and Education (ALS CARE) database to encourage compliance with these recommendations and to assure continuing quality improvement. RESULTS: The most recent analysis of 5,600 patients shows interesting epidemiological observations and treatment trends. Proper management of many ALS symptoms has increased substantially since the first publication of the guidelines, and awareness of pseudobulbar affect has increased. Other recommendations are underutilized: Only 9% undergo percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy, although this procedure was recommended in 22% of patients; and noninvasive positive pressure ventilation was used by only 21% of patients despite being associated with improved 5-year survival rates. INTERPRETATION: This observational database has been a useful tool in monitoring compliance with the standard of care for patients with ALS and may have resulted in greater adherence to guidelines.

Choosing Clinical Variables for Risk Stratification Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Most risk stratification methods use expert opinion to identify a fixed number of clinical variables that have prognostic significance. In this study our goal was to develop improved metrics that utilize a variable number of input parameters. We first used Bootstrap Lasso Regression (BLR) - a Machine Learning method for selecting important variables - to identify a prognostic set of features that identify patients at high risk of death 6-months after presenting with an Acute Coronary Syndrome. Using data derived from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) we trained a logistic regression model using these features and evaluated its performance on a development set (N = 43,063) containing patients who have values for all features, and a separate dataset (N = 6,363) that contains patients who have missing feature values. The final model, Ridge Logistic Regression with Variable Inputs (RLRVI), uses imputation to estimate values for missing features. BLR identified 19 features, 8 of which appear in the GRACE score. RLRVI had modest, yet statistically significant, improvement over the standard GRACE score on both datasets. Moreover, for patients who are relatively low-risk (GRACE≤87), RLRVI had an AUC and Hazard Ratio of 0.754 and 6.27, respectively, vs. 0.688 and 2.46 for GRACE, (p < 0.007). RLRVI has improved discriminatory performance on patients who have values for the 8 GRACE features plus any subset of the 11 non-GRACE features. Our results demonstrate that BLR and data imputation can be used to obtain improved risk stratification metrics, particularly for patients who are classified as low risk using traditional methods.

Risks factors for significant injury after geriatric falls.

Elderly falls are a healthcare epidemic. We aimed to identify risk factors of serious falls by linking data on functional status from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) and our institutional trauma registry. 124 of 5,091 local women enrolled in GLOW were evaluated by our trauma team for injuries related to a fall during the study period. Median injury severity score was 9. The most common injuries were intertrochanteric femur fracture (n = 25, 9.8%) and skin contusion/hematoma to face (n = 12, 4.7%). Injured women were older than the uninjured cohort (median 80 versus 68 years), more likely to have cardiovascular disease and osteoarthritis, and less likely to have high cholesterol. Prospectively collected Short Form 36 (SF-36) baseline activity status revealed greater limitation in all assessed activities in women evaluated for fall-related injuries in our trauma center. In multivariable analysis, age (per 10 year increase) and two or more self-reported falls in the baseline survey were the strongest predictors of falling (both HR 2.4, p <0.0001 and p<0.001 respectively), followed by history of osteoarthritis (HR 1.6, p= 0.01). Functional status was no longer associated with risk of fall when adjusting for these factors. Functional status appears to be a surrogate marker for frailty. With the aging of the US population and long lifespan of American women, this finding has important implications for both fall prevention strategies and research intended to better understand why aging women fall as burdensome validated metrics may not be the best indicators of fall risk.

Evaluation of a Multimodal, Direct-to-Patient Educational Intervention Targeting Barriers to Osteoporosis Care: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Osteoporosis treatment rates are declining, even among those with past fractures. Novel, low-cost approaches are needed to improve osteoporosis care. We conducted a parallel group, controlled, randomized clinical trial evaluating a behavioral intervention for improving osteoporosis medication use. A total of 2684 women with self-reported fracture history after age 45 years not using osteoporosis therapy from US Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) sites were randomized 1:1 to receive a multimodal, tailored, direct-to-patient, video intervention versus usual care. The primary study outcome was self-report of osteoporosis medication use at 6 months. Other outcomes included calcium and vitamin D supplementation, bone mineral density (BMD) testing, readiness for behavioral change, and barriers to treatment. In intent-to-treat analyses, there were no significant differences between groups (intervention versus control) in osteoporosis medication use (11.7% versus 11.4%, p = 0.8), calcium supplementation (31.8% versus 32.6%, p = 0.7), vitamin D intake (41.3% versus 41.9%, p = 0.8), or BMD testing (61.8% versus 57.1%, p = 0.2). In the intervention group, fewer women were in the precontemplative stage of behavior change, more women reported seeing their primary care provider, had concerns regarding osteonecrosis of the jaw, and difficulty in taking/remembering to take osteoporosis medications. We found differences in BMD testing among the subgroup of women with no prior osteoporosis treatment, those who provided contact information, and those with no past BMD testing. In per protocol analyses, women with appreciable exposure to the online intervention (n = 257) were more likely to start nonbisphosphonates (odds ratio [OR] = 2.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-5.79) compared with the usual care group. Although our intervention did not increase the use of osteoporosis therapy at 6 months, it increased nonbisphosphonate medication use and BMD testing in select subgroups, shifted participants' readiness for behavior change, and altered perceptions of barriers to osteoporosis treatment. Achieving changes in osteoporosis care using patient activation approaches alone is challenging. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

A multi-modal intervention for Activating Patients at Risk for Osteoporosis (APROPOS): Rationale, design, and uptake of online study intervention material.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an innovative and effective educational intervention to inform patients about the need for osteoporosis treatment and to determine factors associated with its online uptake. METHODS: Postmenopausal women with a prior fracture and not currently using osteoporosis therapy were eligible to be included in the Activating Patients at Risk for OsteoPOroSis (APROPOS). Four nominal groups with a total of 18 racially/ethnically diverse women identified osteoporosis treatment barriers. We used the Information, Motivation, Behavior Skills conceptual model to develop a direct-to-patient intervention to mitigate potentially modifiable barriers to osteoporosis therapy. The intervention included videos tailored by participants' race/ethnicity and their survey responses: ranked barriers to osteoporosis treatment, deduced barriers to treatment, readiness to behavior change, and osteoporosis treatment history. Videos consisted of "storytelling" narratives, based on osteoporosis patient experiences and portrayed by actresses of patient-identified race/ethnicity. We also delivered personalized brief phone calls followed by an interactive voice-response phone messages aimed to promote uptake of the videos. RESULTS: To address the factors associated with online intervention uptake, we focused on participants assigned to the intervention arm (n = 1342). These participants were 92.9% Caucasian, with a mean (SD) age 74.9 (8.0) years and the majority (77.7%) had some college education. Preference for natural treatments was the barrier ranked #1 by most (n = 130; 27%), while concern about osteonecrosis of the jaw was the most frequently reported barrier (at any level; n = 322; 67%). Overall, 28.1% (n = 377) of participants in the intervention group accessed the videos online. After adjusting for relevant covariates, the participants who provided an email address had 6.07 (95% CI 4.53-8.14) higher adjusted odds of accessing their online videos compared to those who did not. CONCLUSION: We developed and implemented a novel tailored multi-modal intervention to improve initiation of osteoporosis therapy. An email address provided on the survey was the most important factor independently associated with accessing the intervention online. The design and uptake of this intervention may have implications for future studies in osteoporosis or other chronic diseases.

Outbreaks of salmonellosis at elementary schools associated with dissection of owl pellets.

Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium outbreaks occurred at two elementary schools after science club students dissected owl pellets. Forty primary cases were identified (26 culture-confirmed). At the first school, pellets were dissected on a cafeteria table, concurrent with after-school child care in the cafeteria. Subsequently, the table was not sanitized before use by after-school care students for snack, or before the next school lunch. At the second school, pellets were dissected in a dedicated science room, and fewer cases occurred. Pellets in both outbreaks originated from a single captive barred owl. The outbreak pulsed-field gel electrophoresis subtype of S. Typhimurium was isolated from the owl's pellets and feces, and from four frozen chicks from a batch used to feed the owl.

Predictors and outcomes of readmission for Clostridium difficile in a national sample of medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Rates of Clostridium difficile (CD) infections are increasing. Elderly patients may be at particular risk of recurrent CD infection. Little is known about the risk for CD readmission specifically in this age group. METHODS: A 5% random sample of Medicare data (2009-2011) was queried for patients surviving a hospitalization for CD by ICD-9 code. Demographic (age, sex, gender), clinical (Elixhauser index, gastrointestinal comorbidities), and hospitalization (length of stay, ICU admission) characteristics as well as exposure to antibiotics and interim non-CD hospitalization were compared for those with and without a readmission for CD. A multivariable survival analysis was used to determine predictors of readmission. RESULTS: Of 7,564 patients surviving a CD hospitalization, 8.5% were readmitted with CD in a median of 25 days (interquartile range (IQR) 14-57). In multivariable survival analyses, interim non-CD hospital exposure was the strongest predictor of CD readmission (hazard ration (HR) 3.75 95%, confidence interval (CI) 3.2-4.42). Oral and intravenous/intramuscular (IV/IM) antibiotic use, Elixhauser index, and CD as the primary diagnosis also increased the risk of CD readmission. Discharge to hospice, long-term care or a skilled nursing facility decreased the odds of CD readmission. CONCLUSION: Hospital exposure and antibiotic use put elderly patients at risk of CD readmission. Exposure to these factors should be minimized in the immediate post discharge period.

Basic fibroblast growth factor stimulates osteoclast recruitment, development, and bone pit resorption in association with angiogenesis in vivo on the chick chorioallantoic membrane and activates isolated avian osteoclast resorption in vitro.

Increased local osteoclast (OC)-mediated bone resorption coincides with angiogenesis in normal bone development and fracture repair, as well as in pathological disorders such as tumor-associated osteolysis and inflammatory-related rheumatoid arthritis or periodontal disease. Angiogenic stimulation causes recruitment, activation, adhesion, transmigration, and differentiation of hematopoietic cells which may therefore enable greater numbers of pre-OC to emigrate from the circulation and develop into bone-resorptive OCs. A chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) model, involving coimplantation of a stimulus in an agarose plug directly adjacent to a bone chip was used to investigate if a potent angiogenic stimulator, basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), could promote OC recruitment, differentiation, and resorption in vivo. Angiogenesis elicited by bFGF on the CAM was accompanied by increased OC formation and bone pit resorption (both overall and on a per OC basis) on the bone implants in vivo. In complementary in vitro assays, bFGF did not directly stimulate avian OC development from bone marrow mononuclear cell precursors, consistent with their low mRNA expression of the four avian signaling FGF receptors (FGFR)-1, FGFR-2, FGFR-3, and FGFR-like embryonic kinase (FREK). In contrast, bFGF activated isolated avian OC bone pit resorption via mechanisms inhibited by a selective cyclo-oxygenase (COX)-2 prostaglandin inhibitor (NS-398) or p42/p44 MAPK activation inhibitor (PD98059), consistent with a relatively high expression of FGFR-1 by differentiated avian OCs. Thus, bFGF may sensitively regulate local bone resorption and remodeling through direct and indirect mechanisms that promote angiogenesis and OC recruitment, formation, differentiation, and activated bone pit resorption. The potential for bFGF to coinduce angiogenesis and OC bone remodeling may find clinical applications in reconstructive surgery, fracture repair, or the treatment of avascular necrosis. Alternatively, inhibiting such bFGF-dependent processes may aid in the treatment of inflammatory-related or metastatic bone loss.

Survival following surgery and prognostic factors for recently diagnosed malignant glioma: data from the Glioma Outcomes Project.

OBJECT: The Glioma Outcomes Project represents a contemporary analysis of the management of malignant (Grade III and Grade IV/GBM) gliomas in North America. This observational database was used to evaluate the influence of resection, as opposed to biopsy, on patient outcome as measured by the length of survival. Attempts were made to reduce the impact of selection bias by repeating the data analysis after omitting patients with major negative prognostic factors. METHODS: Outcome data from 788 patients accrued from multiple sites over a 4-year period (1997-2001) were analyzed with the primary outcome measure being length of survival. Of these, 565 patients with recent diagnoses formed the basis of the present analysis. Patients were systematically followed up until death or up to 24 months after enrollment in the study, and survival data were correlated with the histopathological grade and location of the tumor, the extent of surgery, the patient's performance status, and demographic factors. The median length of survival was 40.9 weeks for patients with recently diagnosed GBMs. The true median length of survival for patients with Grade III gliomas was not reached, although there was a 58% survival rate at 104 weeks. In multivariate analysis, resection rather than biopsy (p < 0.0001), age 60 years or younger (p < 0.0001), and a Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score of 70 or greater (p = 0.0004) were associated with a prolonged survival time for patients with Grade III or IV gliomas. The prognostic value of resection compared with biopsy was maintained (p < 0.0001), even after eliminating patients considered to be "poor risk" (those with age > 60 years, KPS score < 70, or presence of multifocal tumors), who may have been overrepresented in the biopsy group. Survival "tails" at 24 months were 58% for Grade III gliomas and 11% for GBMs. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide Class II evidence to support tumor grade, patient's age, and patient's functional status as prognostic factors for survival in individuals with recently diagnosed malignant gliomas. Resection (compared with biopsy) is also a strong prognostic factor; however, no quantitative attempt was made to assess the true extent of the resection.

Effect of preinjury warfarin use on outcomes after head trauma in Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Elderly Americans are at increased risk of head trauma, particularly fall related. The effect of warfarin on head trauma outcomes remains controversial. METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries with head injuries from 2009 to 2011 were identified by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 code. Preinjury warfarin use was determined using Part D claims. Multiple logistic regression models determined the association of preinjury warfarin on need for hospitalization, intensive care unit care, and occurrence of intracranial hemorrhage. Association between warfarin and in-hospital mortality was assessed using a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Of 11,078 head injured patients, 5.2% were injured while on warfarin. Preinjury warfarin increased the odds of intracranial hemorrhage by 40% and doubled the risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. CONCLUSIONS: Warfarin at the time of head injury increases the risk of adverse outcomes in Medicare beneficiaries with head injuries. Caution should be used when initiating anticoagulation in elderly Americans at risk for trauma.

Should patients with acute coronary disease be stratified for management according to their risk? Derivation, external validation and outcomes using the updated GRACE risk score.

OBJECTIVES: Risk scores are recommended in guidelines to facilitate the management of patients who present with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Internationally, such scores are not systematically used because they are not easy to apply and some risk indicators are not available at first presentation. We aimed to derive and externally validate a more accurate version of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for predicting the risk of death or death/myocardial infarction (MI) both acutely and over the longer term. The risk score was designed to be suitable for acute and emergency clinical settings and usable in electronic devices. DESIGN AND SETTING: The GRACE risk score (2.0) was derived in 32 037 patients from the GRACE registry (14 countries, 94 hospitals) and validated externally in the French registry of Acute ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation MI (FAST-MI) 2005. PARTICIPANTS: Patients presenting with ST-elevation and non-ST elevation ACS and with long-term outcomes. OUTCOME MEASURES: The GRACE Score (2.0) predicts the risk of short-term and long-term mortality, and death/MI, overall and in hospital survivors. RESULTS: For key independent risk predictors of death (1 year), non-linear associations (vs linear) were found for age (p<0.0005), systolic blood pressure (p<0.0001), pulse (p<0.0001) and creatinine (p<0.0001). By employing non-linear algorithms, there was improved model discrimination, validated externally. Using the FAST-MI 2005 cohort, the c indices for death exceeded 0.82 for the overall population at 1 year and also at 3 years. Discrimination for death or MI was slightly lower than for death alone (c=0.78). Similar results were obtained for hospital survivors, and with substitutions for creatinine and Killip class, the model performed nearly as well. CONCLUSIONS: The updated GRACE risk score has better discrimination and is easier to use than the previous score based on linear associations. GRACE Risk (2.0) performed equally well acutely and over the longer term and can be used in a variety of clinical settings to aid management decisions.

Use of noninvasive ventilation in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) is associated with improved survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and has been widely recommended. The extent of NIPPV use in ALS patients and the factors associated with its use have not been studied. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using the ALS Patient Care Database. Analyses were performed to assess the association of patient and care characteristics with use of ventilatory support. RESULTS: 1458 patients were studied. 15.6% used NIPPV and 2.1% used invasive mechanical ventilation. Patients who used NIPPV were significantly more likely to be male and have higher income than those who did not. They were also more likely to have a gastrostomy tube, lower vital capacity, more severe disease, bulbar involvement and poorer general health status as measured by the SF-12 and Sickness Impact Profile. Multivariate analysis revealed that lower FVC, higher income and use of gastrostomy tube were independently associated with use of NIPPV. CONCLUSIONS: NIPPV is used more than seven times as frequently as invasive ventilation in ALS patients. Patients who use NIPPV have more severe disease than those who do not use any respiratory intervention. Patients with lower income are less likely to use NIPPV, which raises concerns about disparities in the care of patients with ALS.