Motor Neuron Disease Population-Based Registry in Egypt: Where Do We Stand?

BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of evidence indicating that the worldwide distribution of ALS is far from uniform. This is evident through variations in the epidemiology, genetics, and phenotypical characteristics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and other motor neuron diseases (MND) across different regions. However, comprehensive ALS epidemiological studies are still lacking in many parts of the world, especially in Africa. Therefore, we propose the establishment of a population-based register for ALS/MND in Egypt, an important part of Africa with a population of more than 100 millions of people. SUMMARY: Given Egypt's distinctive social and demographic characteristics, it is highly recommended to employ specific, recently developed epidemiological techniques for assessing the prevalence and incidence of these diseases within the country. By utilizing these methods, we can gather invaluable data that will contribute to a deeper understanding of ALS and enable us to effectively address its impact on the population of Egypt. KEY MESSAGES: Our goal with this pioneering ALS/MND population-based register in Egypt is to define the burden of ALS in this part of Africa and to increase the chances for this consanguineous population to get access to modern individualized genetic therapies. Additionally, we aspire to uncover potential environmental factors and gene-environment interactions that contribute to the development of ALS. This knowledge of MND individual and group risk in Egypt will not only open doors for interventions but also provide opportunities for future research and discovery.

Correlates and reproductive consequences of consanguinity in six Egyptian governorates.

This study aimed to explore some correlates and potential reproductive consequences of consanguinity. We analysed data for 8515 ever-married women aged 15-49 derived from a household survey conducted in 2017 in six governorates. The prevalence of consanguineous marriage was 35.9%. The odds (OR (95%CI)) of consanguinity were higher in rural southern governorates (3.68 (3.03-4.46)), with less than secondary education (1.55 (1.42-1.7)), with unemployment (1.74(1.48-2.04)) and in the lowest wealth quintile (3.09 (2.66-3.6)). After adjusting for residence, education, wealth, age at marriage and the number of children; the OR (95%CI) for spontaneous abortion and still births with consanguinity were 1.31 (1.09-1.59) and 1.63 (1.18-2.25) respectively. Consanguinity remains highly prevalent in Egypt especially in rural southern governorates. Women empowerment in terms of attaining higher education and employment may reduce the problem. Consanguinity appears to be associated with adverse reproductive outcomes including spontaneous abortion and still birth.

Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) Cases at a sentinel site in Egypt, 2013-15.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel surveillance for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Egypt began in 2006 and occurs at eight sites. Avian influenza is endemic, and human cases of influenza A (H5N1) have been reported annually since 2006. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of SARI at a major sentinel site in the country. METHODS: Data included in the study were collected from a major SARI sentinel site in Egypt during three consecutive years (2013-15). RESULTS: A total of 1254 SARI patients conforming to the WHO case definition were admitted to the sentinel site, representing 5.6% of admitted patients for all causes and 36.6% of acute respiratory infection patients. A total of 99.7% of the patients were tested, and 21.04% tested positive; 48.7% of cases involved influenza A viruses, while 25% involved influenza B. The predominant age group was under 5 years of age, accounting for 443 cases. The seasonality of the influenza data conformed to the Northern Hemisphere pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The present study's results show that SARI leads to substantial morbidity in Egypt. There is a great need for high-quality data from the SARI surveillance system in Egypt, especially with endemic respiratory threats such as influenza A (H5N1) in Egypt.

How to optimize hepatitis C virus treatment impact on life years saved in resource-constrained countries.

UNLABELLED: In resource-constrained countries where the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease is usually high, it is important to know which population should be treated first in order to increase treatment effectiveness. The aim was to estimate the effectiveness of different HCV treatment eligibility scenarios in three different countries. Using a Markov model, we estimated the number of life-years saved (LYS) with different treatment eligibility scenarios according to fibrosis stage (F1-F4 or F3-4), compared to base case (F2-F4), at a constant treatment rate, of patients between 18 and 60 years of age, at stages F0/F1 to F4, without liver complications or coinfections, chronically infected by HCV, and treated with pegylated interferon (IFN)/ribavirin or more-efficacious therapies (i.e. IFN free). We conducted the analysis in Egypt (prevalence = 14.7%; 45,000 patients treated/year), Thailand (prevalence = 2.2%; 1,000 patients treated/year), and Côte d'Ivoire (prevalence = 3%; 150 patients treated/year). In Egypt, treating F1 patients in addition to ≥F2 patients (SE1 vs. SE0) decreased LYS by 3.9%. Focusing treatment only on F3-F4 patients increased LYS by 6.7% (SE2 vs. SE0). In Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire, focusing treatment only on F3-F4 patients increased LYS by 15.3% and 11.0%, respectively, compared to treating patients ≥F2 (ST0 and SC0, respectively). Treatment only for patients at stages F3-F4 with IFN-free therapies would increase LYS by 16.7% versus SE0 in Egypt, 22.0% versus ST0 in Thailand, and 13.1% versus SC0 in Côte d'Ivoire. In this study, we did not take into account the yearly new infections and the impact of treatment on HCV transmission. CONCLUSION: Our model-based analysis demonstrates that prioritizing treatment in F3-F4 patients in resource-constrained countries is the most effective scenario in terms of LYS, regardless of treatment considered.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of immediate versus delayed treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients in a country with limited resources: the case of Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Because of logistical and economic issues, in Egypt, as in other resource-limited settings, decision makers should determine for which patients hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment should be prioritized. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different treatment initiation strategies. METHODS: Using a Markov model, we simulated HCV disease in chronically infected patients in Egypt, to compare lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment initiation strategies. RESULTS: Immediate treatment of patients at stages F1/F2/F3 was less expensive and more effective than delaying treatment until more severe stages or not providing treatment (in patients diagnosed at F1: QALE = 18.32 years if treatment at F1 vs 18.22 if treatment at F2). Treatment of F4 patients was more effective than no treatment at all (QALE = 10.33 years vs 8.77 years) and was cost-effective (ICER = $1915/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). When considering that affordable triple therapies, including new direct-acting antivirals, will be available starting in 2016, delaying treatment until stage F2, then treating all patients regardless of their disease stage after 2016, was found to be cost-effective (ICER = $33/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: In Egypt, immediate treatment of patients with fibrosis stage F1-F3 who present to care is less expensive and more effective than delaying treatment. However, immediate treatment at stage F1 is only slightly more effective than waiting for disease to progress to stage F2 before starting treatment and is sensitive to the forthcoming availability of new treatments. Treating patients at stage F4 is highly effective and cost-effective. In Egypt, decision makers should prioritize treatment for F4 patients and delay treatment for F1 patients who present to care.

Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. METHODS: We used the "elicitation of expert opinions" method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. RESULTS: We found substantial disparity between experts' answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners' difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results.

Consanguinity and genetic diseases in North Africa and immigrants to Europe.

Endemic diseases are caused by environmental and genetic factors. While in this special issue several chapters deal with environmental factors, including infections, the present focus is on genetic causes of disease clustering due to inbreeding and recessive disease mechanisms. Consanguinity is implying sharing of genetic heritage because of marriage between close relatives originating from a common ancestor. With limited natural selection, recessive genes may become more frequent in an inbred compared with an outbred population. Consanguinity is common in North Africa (NA), and the estimates range from 40 to 49% of all marriages in Tunisia and 29-33% in Morocco. As a consequence, recessive disorders are common in the NA region, and we give some examples. Thalassaemia and sickle cell disease/anaemia constitute the most common inherited recessive disorders globally and they are common in NA, but with immigration they have spread to Europe and to other parts of the world. Another example is familial Mediterranean fever, which is common in the Eastern Mediterranean area. With immigrantion from that area to Sweden, it has become the most common hereditary autoinflammatory disease in that country, and there is no evidence that any native Swede would have been diagnosed with this disease. The examples discussed in this chapter show that the historic movement of populations and current immigration are influencing the concept of 'endemic' disease.

Cancer in immigrants as a pointer to the causes of cancer.

The early cancer studies on immigrants, which started to appear some 50 years ago, showed that the incidence in cancers changes to the level of the new host country in one or two generations. These findings were fundamental to the understanding of the environmental etiology of human cancer. Many immigrant groups originate from countries with no cancer registration, and, hence, the immigrant studies may provide estimates on the indigenous cancer rates. The Swedish Family-Cancer Database has been an important source of data for immigrant studies on various diseases. The Database covers the Swedish population of the past 100 years, and it records the country of birth for each subject. A total of 1.79 million individuals were foreign born, Finns and other Scandinavians being the largest immigrant groups. Over the course of years, some 30 publications have appeared relating to cancer in immigrants. In the present article, we will review more recent immigrant studies, mainly among Swedish immigrants, on all cancers and emphasize the differences between ethnic groups. In the second part, we discuss the problem of reliable registration of cancer and compare cancer incidence among non-European immigrants with cancer incidence in countries of origin, as these have now active cancer registries. We discuss the experiences in cancer registration in Morocco and Egypt. We show the usefulness and limitations in predicting cancer incidence in the countries of origin.

Emigration flows from North Africa to Europe.

The region of North Africa (NA) represents a striking locality regarding migration with several migration patterns, namely emigration in the form of labour export to Europe and North America and, to a lesser extent, to the Arab Gulf area. The latter has increased enormously in the last decade because of the political instability in most of the NA countries. The aim of the present chapter was to explore the patterns of migration stocks and flows in NA countries, based on several websites, systematic review of journals, comparable data available by the United Nations and by the International Organization of Migration. The NA region has become an area of transit migration and labour migration. Emigrant flows from NA countries towards Europe and North America are increasing this decade more than towards the Arab Gulf countries after being replaced by Asian labour. The recent increase in the proportion of women among the migrant population is remarkable. Remittances sent by African migrants have become an important source of external finance for countries of origin. Transient and irregular migration to Egypt originates at the borders with Sudan, Palestine and Libya with destination to the Euro Mediterranean countries. In Tunisia and Morocco, irregular migrants originate from Sub-Saharan Africa to the northern borders. The NA countries serve as departure rather than destination countries, and migration flows to the Euro-Mediterranean countries through legal or illegal routes.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults from North Africa.

The share of North African immigrants in Europe is growing continuously. In this review, we aimed to systematically analyse and describe the literature on weight status and physical activity in North African adults, both in their home country and after immigration to Europe. Existing data on North African residents and on North African immigrants in Europe were analysed by a systematic search on PUBMED. There is a wide variation among countries in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, with immigrants showing higher values. The overall results revealed a higher prevalence of overweight and obesity in females than in males in North African residents. Females also show higher levels of obesity among immigrants. In particular, literature reports indicate that 1.3-47.8% of North African residents and 3.6-49.4% of North African immigrants in adult age are overweight or obese. Physical inactivity is higher than 20% in males and 40% in females in North African residents. The highest frequency of physically inactive or lightly active people among immigrants was observed in first-generation Sudanese and Moroccans in Amsterdam (males: 57.1%; females: 74.2%), with increasing rates in second-generation females. The results underline a higher health risk in North African immigrants than in residents. Specific public health strategies should be adopted in various populations of North African origin to control the obesity epidemic.

Overview on health research ethics in Egypt and North Africa.

Developing countries, including Egypt and North African countries, need to improve their quality of research by enhancing international cooperation and exchanges of scientific information, as well as competing for obtaining international funds to support research activities. Research must comply with laws and other requirements for research that involves human subjects. The purpose of this article is to overview the status of health research ethics in Egypt and North African countries, with reference to other Middle Eastern countries. The EU and North African Migrants: Health and Health Systems project (EUNAM) has supported the revision of the status of health research ethics in Egypt and North African countries, by holding meetings and discussions to collect information about research ethics committees in Egypt, and revising the structure and guidelines of the committees, as well as reviewing the literature concerning ethics activities in the concerned countries. This overview has revealed that noticeable efforts have been made to regulate research ethics in certain countries in the Middle East. This can be seen in the new regulations, which contain the majority of protections mentioned in the international guidelines related to research ethics. For most of the internationally registered research ethics committees in North African countries, the composition and functionality reflect the international guidelines. There is growing awareness of research ethics in these countries, which extends to teaching efforts to undergraduate and postgraduate medical students.

Preventing iatrogenic HCV infection: A quantitative risk assessment based on observational data in an Egyptian hospital.

When compliance with infection control recommendations is non-optimal, hospitals may play an important role in hepatitis C (HCV) transmission. However, few studies have analyzed the nosocomial HCV acquisition risk based on detailed empirical data. Here, we used data from a prospective cohort study conducted on 500 patients in the Ain Shams hospital (Cairo, Egypt) in 2017 with the objective of identifying (i) high-risk patient profiles and (ii) transmission hotspots within the hospital. Data included information on patient HCV status upon admission, their trajectories between wards and the invasive procedures they underwent. We first performed a sequence analysis to identify different hospitalization profiles. Second, we estimated each patient's individual risk of HCV acquisition based on ward-specific prevalence and procedures undergone, and risk hotspots by computing ward-level risks. Then, using a beta regression model, we evaluated upon-admission factors linked to HCV acquisition risk and built a score estimating the risk of HCV infection during hospitalization based on these factors. Finally, we assessed and compared ward-focused and patient-focused HCV control strategies. The sequence analysis based on patient trajectories allowed us to identify four distinct patient trajectory profiles. The risk of HCV infection was greater in the internal medicine department, compared to the surgery department (0·188% [0·142%-0·235%] vs. 0·043%, CI 95%: [0·036%-0·050%]), with risk hotspots in the geriatric, tropical medicine and intensive-care wards. Upon-admission risk predictors included source of admission, age, reason for hospitalization, and medical history. Interventions focused on the most at-risk patients were most effective to reduce HCV infection risk. Our results might help reduce the risk of HCV acquisition during hospitalization in Egypt by targeting enhanced control measures to ward-level transmission hotspots and to at-risk patients identified upon admission.

Changes in the burden and underlying causes of heart failure in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: The burden of heart failure (HF) is high globally, but information on its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is limited. This study provides a systematic analysis of the burden and underlying causes of HF in the EMR, including at the country level, between 1990 and 2019. Methods: We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for estimates of prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and underlying causes of HF in the EMR. Age-standardised prevalence, YLDs, and underlying causes of HF were compared by 5-year age groups (considering 15 years old and more), sex (male and female), and countries. Findings: In contrast with the decreasing trend of HF burden globally, EMR showed an increasing trend. Globally, the HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs decreased by 7.06% (95% UI: -7.22%, -6.9%) and 6.82% (95% UI: -6.98%, -6.66%) respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in the EMR in 2019 were 706.43 (95% UI: 558.22-887.87) and 63.46 (95% UI: 39.82-92.59) per 100,000 persons, representing an increase of 8.07% (95% UI: 7.9%, 8.24%) and 8.79% (95% UI: 8.61%, 8.97%) from 1990, respectively. Amongst EMR countries, the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were highest in Kuwait, while Pakistan consistently had the lowest HF burden. The dramatic increase of the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were seen in Oman (28.79%; 95% UI: 28.51%, 29.07% and 29.56%; 95% UI: 29.28%, 29.84%), while Bahrain witnessed a reduction over the period shown (-9.66%; 95% UI: -9.84%, -9.48% and-9.14%; 95% UI: -9.32%, -8.96%). There were significant country-specific differences in trends of HF burden from 1990 to 2019. Males had relatively higher rates than females in all age groups. Among all causes of HF in 2019, ischemic heart disease accounted for the highest age-standardised prevalence and YLDs, followed by hypertensive heart disease. Interpretation: The burden of HF in the EMR was higher than the global, with increasing age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in countries of the region. A more comprehensive approach is needed to prevent underlying causes and improve medical care to control the burden of HF in the region. Funding: None.

Trends in the burden and determinants of hypertensive heart disease in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD), one of the end-organ damage consequences of hypertension, is an important public health issue worldwide. Data on the HHD burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are scarce. We aimed to investigate the burden of HHD in the EMR, its member countries, and globally from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to report the HHD age-standardised prevalence, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and mortality, as well as HHD risk factors attribution percent with their 95% uncertainty interval (UI). Global data are reported alongside EMR data, and its 22 respective countries. We compared the burden of HHD by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, age groups, and countries. Findings: The age-standardised prevalence rate (per 100,000 population) of HHD was higher in the EMR (281.7; 95% UI: 204.5-383.4) in 2019, compared with the global prevalence (233.8; 95% UI: 170.5-312.9). The EMR age-standardised DALYs (per 100,000 population) for HHD in 2019 was 561.9 (361.0-704.1), compared with 268.2 (204.6-298.1) at the global level. There was an increase in HHD prevalence, reduction in mortality, and DALYs between 1990 and 2019 (4.01%, -7.6%, and -6.5%, respectively) in EMR. Among EMR countries, the highest versus lowest rates of age-standardised prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in 2019 [estimate (95% UI)] were in Jordan [561.62 (417.9-747.6)] versus Saudi Arabia [94.9 (69.5-129.0)]; Afghanistan [74.5 (23.7-112.3)] versus Saudi Arabia [4.3 (3.3-5.9)]; and Afghanistan [1374.1 (467.2-2020.7)] versus Qatar [87.11 (64.40-114.29)], respectively. Interpretation: HHD remains a significant problem in the EMR, with a higher burden than global levels. Serious efforts toward high-quality management and prevention are strongly recommended. Based on this study, our recommendation for the EMR is to adopt effective preventive strategies. For example, promoting healthy dietary patterns and prompt screening for undiagnosed HTN in public places, promoting regular blood pressure measurements at home, and creating community awareness about early detection of HTN. Funding: None.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and the epidemiologic transition in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: 1990-2019.

It has been estimated that in the next decade, IHD prevalence, DALYs and deaths will increase more significantly in EMR than in any other region of the world. This study aims to provide a comprehensive description of the trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2019. Data on IHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, DALYs attributable to risk factors, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ), and universal health coverage (UHC) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for EMR countries. The data were stratified based on the social demographic index (SDI). Information on cardiac rehabilitation was obtained from publications by the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR), and additional country-specific data were obtained through advanced search methods. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, applying the estimated age structure of the global population from 2019. Uncertainty intervals were calculated through 1000 iterations, and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were derived from these calculations. The age-standardized prevalence of IHD in the EMR increased from 5.0% to 5.5% between 1990 and 2019, while it decreased at the global level. In the EMR, the age-standardized rates of IHD mortality and DALYs decreased by 11.4% and 15.4%, respectively, during the study period, although both rates remained higher than the global rates. The burden of IHD was found to be higher in males compared to females. Bahrain exhibited the highest decrease in age-standardized prevalence (-3.7%), mortality (-65.0%), and DALYs (-69.1%) rates among the EMR countries. Conversely, Oman experienced the highest increase in prevalence (14.5%), while Pakistan had the greatest increase in mortality (30.0%) and DALYs (32.0%) rates. The top three risk factors contributing to IHD DALYs in the EMR in 2019 were high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and particulate matter pollution. The trend analysis over the 29-year period (1990-2019) revealed that high fasting plasma glucose (64.0%) and high body mass index (23.4%) exhibited increasing trends as attributed risk factors for IHD DALYs in the EMR. Our findings indicate an increasing trend in the prevalence of IHD and a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the EMR. These results emphasize the need for well-planned prevention and treatment strategies to address the risk factors associated with IHD. It is crucial for the countries in this region to prioritize the development and implementation of programs focused on health promotion, education, prevention, and medical care.

Rising trends in Caesarean section in 6 Egyptian governorates.

Background: Caesarean section (CS) is a life-saving operation when vaginal delivery is risky to the mother or baby. However, if not medically indicated or performed under suboptimal conditions, it can be harmful and resource-intensive. Aims: To estimate the prevalence of CS in 6 Egyptian governorates and identify possible risk factors (including demographic, social and healthcare services factors) stratified according to geographical areas. Methods: We used secondary data collected from a large survey to investigate the sociodemographic and health indicators of 6 purposefully selected Egyptian governorates with suboptimal health indicators: 3 from Upper Egypt (Sohag, Assiut and Menia) and 3 from Lower Egypt (Sharkia, Beheira and Ismailia). The survey data were gathered using an interview questionnaire that targeted household members. Results: The CS rate was estimated at 55.1% for the 3 years preceding the study, and the highest rate was 67.8% in Behira and the lowest was 49.0% in Assiut. In most governorates, the CS rate was higher in rural than in urban areas, but the difference was not significant. High CS rates were significantly related to higher social class and lower number of children (≤ 3). Conclusion: In the governorates investigated, CS was performed more often, with higher rates than those reported in the 2015 Egypt Health Issue Survey. The adoption of protocols for elective CS should be enforced with a more multisectoral effort. Pregnant women should be well informed of the risks associated with CS and its medical indications.

Inflammatory biomarkers and severity of COVID-19: Cross sectional study among Egyptian patients.

The newly emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by multisystem inflammatory syndrome. The development of SARS-CoV-2 complications usually starts within few days following infection, and the severity of the disease determines its outcome. Vitamin D insufficiency is associated with risk of lung infections, also cell-based studies reported the ability of vitamin D to control enveloped virus growth. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the most eminent inflammatory biomarkers and the level of vitamin D aiming to provide a tool for early diagnosis and prediction of disease progression. The current study was approved by Research Ethics Committee (REC), Kasr Al-Ainy. After confirmation of being COVID-19 by PCR, the admitted patients were categorized as mild-moderate, and severe-critically ill based on clinical and radiologic data. The total levels of serum 25(OH)D, as well as other pro-inflammatory biomarkers were measured and were analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis for detection of their association with COVID-19 disease severity and to determine their sensitivity and specificity at optimum cutoff points. The area under the curve (AUC) ROC for predicting COVID-19 disease severity was the highest (of 0.97) for vitamin D, inflammatory cytokines, liver enzymes, ferritin, and D-Dimer. In addition, high serum levels of creatinine, and elevated liver enzymes associated with severe-critical COVID-19. The low 25(OH)D was associated with the disease severity.

The COVEG score to predict severity and mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 severity and mortality predictors could determine admission criteria and reduce mortality. We aimed to evaluate the clinical-laboratory features of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to develop a novel score of severity and mortality. METHODOLOGY: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to five Egyptian university hospitals. Demographics, comorbidities, clinical manifestations, laboratory parameters, the duration of hospitalization, and disease outcome were analyzed, and a score to predict severity and mortality was developed. RESULTS: A total of 1308 patients with COVID-19, with 996 (76.1%) being moderate and 312 (23.9%) being severe cases, were included. The mean age was 46.5 ± 17.1 years, and 61.6% were males. The overall mortality was 12.6%. Regression analysis determined significant predictors, and a ROC curve defined cut-off values. The COVEG severity score was defined by age ≥ 54, D-dimer ≥ 0.795, serum ferritin ≥ 406, C-reactive protein ≥ 30.1, and neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio ≥ 2.88. The COVEG mortality score was based on COVEG severity and the presence of cardiac diseases. Both COVEG scores had high predictive values (area under the curve 0.882 and 0.883, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: COVEG score predicts the severity and mortality of patients with COVID-19 accurately.

Comparative analysis of the diagnostic performance of crude sheep hydatid cyst fluid, purified antigen B and its subunit (12 Kda), assessed by ELISA, in the diagnosis of human cystic echinococcosis.

The diagnosis of patients with cystic echinococcosis (CE) by means of serology has a limited support in clinical practice due to cross-reactivity with other helminthes leading to overestimation of the parasite's true prevalence. A wealth of reports on the diagnostic performance of antigen B (AgB) has been produced. This study was designed to comparatively assess the diagnostic efficacy of crude sheep hydatid cyst fluid (HCF), AgB and its subunit (12 KDa) to detect IgG or IgG4 antibodies in CE patients' sera using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).The best diagnostic performance was obtained with anti-HCF IgG ELISA which gave 92.4% sensitivity and 92.6% specificity. Despite the low sensitivity of anti AgB IgG ELISA (84%), it gave the best specificity (94.4%) with less cross-reaction with sera of subjects infected with other parasites. In conclusion, it is recommended to use anti-HCF IgG ELISA for initial screening in large seroprevalence studies. Further analysis of positive serum samples with anti AgB IgG ELISA would allow the confirmation of true positives. Specific IgG4 ELISA may represent a complementary assay, useful as secondary confirmatory tests for patients with suspected CE and negative for total IgG ELISA.

Health Literacy Co-Design in a Low Resource Setting: Harnessing Local Wisdom to Inform Interventions across Fishing Villages in Egypt to Improve Health and Equity.

Fishermen in low resource settings have limited access to health services and may have a range of health literacy-related difficulties that may lead to poor health outcomes. To provide solutions and interventions based on their needs, co-design is considered best practice in such settings. This study aimed to implement a co-design process as a step towards developing health literacy interventions to improve health and equity in the Borollos Lake region of northern Egypt, a low resource setting with a high prevalence of chronic diseases. This study was guided by the Ophelia (Optimising Health Literacy and Access) process, a widely used and flexible co-design process that seeks to create local and fit-for-purpose health literacy solutions through genuine engagement and participation of community members and relevant stakeholders. Following a health literacy survey using the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ), cluster analysis was conducted to identify the diverse health literacy profiles among the fishing communities. Seven health literacy profiles were identified. Vignettes, representing these profiles, were presented and discussed in ideas generation/co-design workshops with fishermen and health workers to develop intervention ideas. Seventeen fishermen, 22 wives of fishermen, and 20 nurses participated in four workshops. Fifteen key strategies across five themes, including 'Enhancing education among fishing communities', 'Provide good quality health services', 'Financial support for health', 'Social support for health', and 'Promote better health-related quality of life among fishermen', were generated. The ideas did not only target the individuals but also required actions from the government, non-government organizations, and fishermen syndicates. By harnessing local wisdom, the Ophelia process has created meaningful engagement with the local communities, leading to a wide range of practical and feasible solutions that match the special needs and environment of a low resource setting.