Some extensions in continuous models for immunological correlates of protection.

BACKGROUND: A scaled logit model has previously been proposed to quantify the relationship between an immunological assay and protection from disease, and has been applied in a number of settings. The probability of disease was modelled as a function of the probability of exposure, which was assumed to be fixed, and of protection, which was assumed to increase smoothly with the value of the assay. METHODS: Some extensions are here investigated. Alternative functions to represent the protection curve are explored, applications to case-cohort designs are evaluated, and approaches to variance estimation compared. The steepness of the protection curve must sometimes be bounded to achieve convergence and methods for doing so are outlined. Criteria for evaluating the fit of models are proposed and approaches to assessing the utility of results suggested. Models are evaluated by application to sixteen datasets from vaccine clinical trials. RESULTS: Alternative protection curve functions improved model evaluation criteria for every dataset. Standard errors based on the observed information were found to be unreliable; bootstrap estimates of precision were to be preferred. In most instances, case-cohort designs resulted in little loss of precision. Some results achieved suggested measures for utility. CONCLUSIONS: The original scaled logit model can be improved upon. Evaluation criteria permit well-fitting models and useful results to be identified. The proposed methods provide a comprehensive set of tools for quantifying the relationship between immunological assays and protection from disease.

A threshold method for immunological correlates of protection.

BACKGROUND: Immunological correlates of protection are biological markers such as disease-specific antibodies which correlate with protection against disease and which are measurable with immunological assays. It is common in vaccine research and in setting immunization policy to rely on threshold values for the correlate where the accepted threshold differentiates between individuals who are considered to be protected against disease and those who are susceptible. Examples where thresholds are used include development of a new generation 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine which was required in clinical trials to meet accepted thresholds for the older 7-valent vaccine, and public health decision making on vaccination policy based on long-term maintenance of protective thresholds for Hepatitis A, rubella, measles, Japanese encephalitis and others. Despite widespread use of such thresholds in vaccine policy and research, few statistical approaches have been formally developed which specifically incorporate a threshold parameter in order to estimate the value of the protective threshold from data. METHODS: We propose a 3-parameter statistical model called the a:b model which incorporates parameters for a threshold and constant but different infection probabilities below and above the threshold estimated using profile likelihood or least squares methods. Evaluation of the estimated threshold can be performed by a significance test for the existence of a threshold using a modified likelihood ratio test which follows a chi-squared distribution with 3 degrees of freedom, and confidence intervals for the threshold can be obtained by bootstrapping. The model also permits assessment of relative risk of infection in patients achieving the threshold or not. Goodness-of-fit of the a:b model may be assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow approach. The model is applied to 15 datasets from published clinical trials on pertussis, respiratory syncytial virus and varicella. RESULTS: Highly significant thresholds with p-values less than 0.01 were found for 13 of the 15 datasets. Considerable variability was seen in the widths of confidence intervals. Relative risks indicated around 70% or better protection in 11 datasets and relevance of the estimated threshold to imply strong protection. Goodness-of-fit was generally acceptable. CONCLUSIONS: The a:b model offers a formal statistical method of estimation of thresholds differentiating susceptible from protected individuals which has previously depended on putative statements based on visual inspection of data.

Associations of human leukocyte antigen with neutralizing antibody titers in a tetravalent dengue vaccine phase 2 efficacy trial in Thailand.

The recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV has shown efficacy against all four dengue serotypes. In this exploratory study (CYD59, NCT02827162), we evaluated potential associations of host human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles with dengue antibody responses, CYD-TDV vaccine efficacy, and virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) cases. Children 4-11 years old, who previously completed a phase 2b efficacy study of CYD-TDV in a single center in Thailand, were included in the study. Genotyping of HLA class I and II loci was performed by next-generation sequencing from DNA obtained from 335 saliva samples. Dengue neutralizing antibody titers (NAb) were assessed as a correlate of risk and protection. Regression analyses were used to assess associations between HLA alleles and NAb responses, vaccine efficacy, and dengue outcomes. Month 13 NAb log geometric mean titers (GMTs) were associated with decreased risk of VCD. In the vaccine group, HLA-DRB1*11 was significantly associated with higher NAb log GMT levels (beta: 0.76; p = 0.002, q = 0.13). Additionally, in the absence of vaccination, HLA associations were observed between the presence of DPB1*03:01 and increased NAb log GMT levels (beta: 1.24; p = 0.005, q = 0.17), and between DPB1*05:01 and reduced NAb log GMT levels (beta: -1.1; p = 0.001, q = 0.07). This study suggests associations of HLA alleles with NAb titers in the context of dengue outcomes. This study was registered with clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02827162.

Relationship between haemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titres and clinical protection against influenza: development and application of a bayesian random-effects model.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies directed against haemagglutinin, measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay are essential to protective immunity against influenza infection. An HI titre of 1:40 is generally accepted to correspond to a 50% reduction in the risk of contracting influenza in a susceptible population, but limited attempts have been made to further quantify the association between HI titre and protective efficacy. METHODS: We present a model, using a meta-analytical approach, that estimates the level of clinical protection against influenza at any HI titre level. Source data were derived from a systematic literature review that identified 15 studies, representing a total of 5899 adult subjects and 1304 influenza cases with interval-censored information on HI titre. The parameters of the relationship between HI titre and clinical protection were estimated using Bayesian inference with a consideration of random effects and censorship in the available information. RESULTS: A significant and positive relationship between HI titre and clinical protection against influenza was observed in all tested models. This relationship was found to be similar irrespective of the type of viral strain (A or B) and the vaccination status of the individuals. CONCLUSION: Although limitations in the data used should not be overlooked, the relationship derived in this analysis provides a means to predict the efficacy of inactivated influenza vaccines when only immunogenicity data are available. This relationship can also be useful for comparing the efficacy of different influenza vaccines based on their immunological profile.

A new approach to estimate vaccine efficacy based on immunogenicity data applied to influenza vaccines administered by the intradermal or intramuscular routes.

BACKGROUND: Despite their pivotal role in the assessment of influenza vaccines, limited attempts have been made to use haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers for predicting vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed influenza. We present here the second step of a two-step approach allowing performing such predictions and use it to compare a new trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine administered by the intradermal (ID) route (INTANZA® /IDFlu®) with the vaccine administered by the classical intramuscular (IM) route. METHODS: The first step corresponding to the estimation of the level of protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza that can be linked to each HI titer, referred to as the HI protection curve, was achieved by using a meta-analytical approach based on published information. Vaccine efficacy and differences in vaccine efficacy are predicted in a second step using this HI protection curve alongside the results of two randomized clinical trials providing comparative information on the immunogenicity of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines administered ID or IM in 3503 & 1645 elderly participants, respectively. RESULTS: Pooling all available immunogenicity data, the predicted vaccine efficacy was 63.3% [CI: 58.1; 68.7] for ID route and 54.4% [CI: 49.4; 59.2] for IM route. The corresponding relative increase in efficacy that is of 16.5% [CI: 12.7; 20.1]. Predicted vaccine efficacies decreased with age for both vaccines, but the decrease was less marked by ID route: the relative increase in efficacy for subjects aged 70 years and above is of 18.0% [CI:12;24]. CONCLUSION: The analysis performed confirmed that the superior immune response provided by the vaccine using the ID route should translate into a higher vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Modeling the long-term persistence of neutralizing antibody in children and toddlers after vaccination with live attenuated Japanese encephalitis chimeric virus vaccine.

The live-attenuated Japanese encephalitis chimeric virus vaccine JE-CV (IMOJEV®, Sanofi Pasteur) elicits a robust antibody response in children, which wanes over time. Clinical efficacy is based on a correlate of protection against JE infection defined as neutralizing antibody levels equal to or greater than the threshold of 10 (1/dil). Information on the duration of persistence of the JE antibody response above this threshold is needed. We constructed statistical models using 5-year persistence data from a randomised clinical trial (NCT00621764) in children (2-5 years old) primed with inactivated JE vaccine who received a booster dose of JE-CV, and in JE-naïve toddlers (12-24 months) who received a JE-CV single dose primary vaccination. Models were constructed using a Bayesian Monte-Carlo Markov Chain approach and implemented with OpenBugs V3.2.1. Antibody persistence was predicted for up to 10 years following JE-CV vaccination. Findings from a piecewise model with 2 phases (children) and a classic linear model (toddlers) are presented. For children, predicted median antibody titers (77 [2.5th-97.5th percentile range 41-144] 1/dil) remained above the threshold for seroprotection over the 10 years following booster JE-CV vaccination; the predicted median duration of protection was 19.5 years. For toddlers, 10 years after JE-CV primary vaccination median antibody titers were predicted to wane to around the level required for seroprotection (10.8 [5.8-20.1] 1/dil). A booster dose of JE-CV in children is predicted to provide long-term protection against JE. Such data are useful to facilitate decisions on implementation of and recommendations for future vaccination strategies.

Tolerability and immunogenicity of an eleven valent mixed carrier Streptococcus pneumoniae capsular polysaccharide-diphtheria toxoid or tetanus protein conjugate vaccine in Finnish and Israeli infants.

BACKGROUND: To have wide global coverage of pneumococcal serotypes, the number of serotypes covered by the current 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine must be increased. We have studied the safety and immunogenicity of an 11-valent mixed carrier vaccine (PncDT11) in infants. METHODS: The study vaccine contained polysaccharide antigens of serotypes 1, 4, 5, 7F, 9V, 19F and 23F conjugated to tetanus protein and serotypes 3, 6B, 14 and 18C conjugated to diphtheria toxoid. The vaccine was administered to Finnish (n = 117) and Israeli (n = 135) infants at ages 2, 4, 6 and 12 months concomitantly with other vaccines used in national vaccination programs. IgG antibodies to polysaccharides were determined by enzyme immunoassay from serum samples taken at ages 2, 7, 12 and 13 months. After each injection the infants were followed for 30 min to detect any immediate adverse reactions, and parents were given a diary card to report any adverse events during the next 5 days. RESULTS: No severe adverse reactions occurred, and immediate adverse reactions were rare. After each dose approximately 30% of the vaccinees experienced local reactions of which pain was the most common. Fever of >38 degrees C was reported in 33 to 53% of the vaccinees and high fever (>40 degrees C) was reported 6 times. The PncDT11 vaccine was immunogenic. The antibody concentrations after primary immunization series were higher in Israeli than in Finnish infants, but the differences were not significant for most serotypes. The difference was most marked at 13 months, a time point at which the difference was significant in 10 of 11 serotypes. CONCLUSION: PncDT11 is safe and immunogenic in infants. The use of 11-valent pneumococcal vaccine would increase the serotype coverage beyond the currently available 7-valent vaccine.

Immune response to octavalent diphtheria- and tetanus-conjugated pneumococcal vaccines is serotype- and carrier-specific: the choice for a mixed carrier vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Development of protein-conjugated pneumococcal vaccines for infants has led to formulations that are immunogenic in the age group at highest risk for pneumococcal diseases. This study focuses on the search for an optimal formulation. METHODS: In a randomized trial Icelandic infants (n = 160) were immunized at age 3, 4 and 6 months with one of two octavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (serotypes 3, 4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F and 23F conjugated to diphtheria toxoid (PncD) or tetanus protein (PncT) followed with a booster of either the same conjugate or 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine at 13 months. Safety data were collected after each vaccination, and IgG responses (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) were measured at 3, 4, 6, 7, 13 and 14 months. RESULTS: Both conjugates were safe and caused fewer local reactions than the routine vaccines (P < 0.0001). At 7 months both groups had significant IgG response to all serotypes. The geometric mean concentration range was 0.35 to 4.09 and 0.65 to 3.38 microg/ml for PncD and PncT, respectively, with 88.2 to 100% and 92.4 to 100% of subjects reaching > or = 0.15 microg/ml. The PncD gave better primary responses to serotypes 3, 9V and 18C, whereas PncT gave better response to serotype 4. Similar responses were induced to the other serotypes. Good booster IgG responses were obtained in all vaccine groups; 97.5 to 100% of subjects reached > or = 1 microg/ml. CONCLUSIONS: Both octavalent pneumococcal conjugates were safe and immunogenic in infants. Based on the results from this and similar trials, a mixed diphtheria and tetanus pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was designed to provide the optimal immune response to each serotype.

Functional activity of antibodies after immunization of Finnish and Israeli infants with an 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

Finnish and Israeli infants received an 11-valent mixed carrier pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (11PCV) with or without aluminum adjuvant at the age of 2, 4, 6, and 12 months. We measured opsonophagocytic activity (OPA) of antibodies to pneumococcal strains of serotypes 4, 6B, 14, 19F, and 23F. At 7 months, OPA was clearly detected for all the serotypes. At 13 months, OPAs increased further and the proportion of individuals with a positive OPA ranged between 81 and 100%. The adjuvant improved functional activity of antibodies to serotype 6B pneumococci. In conclusion, immunization of infants with the 11PCV induced functionally active antibodies.