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BACKGROUND: This paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. METHODS: Compartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, 'Optimistic', 'Middling' and 'Pessimistic', were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd February. RESULTS: The key output was the demand and capacity model described. There were no excess deaths from a lack of capacity in the 'Optimistic' scenario. Several of the 'Middling' scenario applications resulted in excess deaths-up to 597 deaths (0.6% increase) with a 20% reduction compared to best estimate ICU capacity. All the 'Pessimistic' scenario applications resulted in excess deaths, ranging from 49,178 (17.0% increase) for a 20% increase in ward bed availability, to 103,735 (35.8% increase) for a 20% shortfall in ward bed availability. These scenarios took no account of the emergence of the new, more transmissible, variant of concern (b.1.1.7). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality is increased when hospital demand exceeds available capacity. No excess deaths from breaching capacity would be expected under the 'Optimistic' scenario. The 'Middling' scenario could result in some excess deaths-up to a 0.7% increase relative to the total number of deaths. The 'Pessimistic' scenario would have resulted in significant excess deaths. Our sensitivity analysis indicated a range between 49,178 (17% increase) and 103,735 (35.8% increase). Given the new variant, the pessimistic scenario appeared increasingly likely and could have resulted in a substantial increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. In the event, it would appear that capacity was not breached at any stage at a national level with no excess deaths. it will remain unclear if minor local capacity breaches resulted in any small number of excess deaths.
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COVID-19 , Cuidados Críticos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales , Hospitales , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Severe glenoid bone loss remains a challenge in patients requiring shoulder arthroplasty and often requires autogenous bone grafting. The purpose of this study was to assess the integrity of the bone graft at 2 years in a series of primary and revision shoulder replacements where glenoid bone loss was managed using a structural autograft (humeral head or iliac crest bone graft) in combination with a trabecular titanium (TT) implant. METHODS: Ethical approval was sought, and the study has a portfolio study status by the NIHR (17/YH/0318). We contacted patients who had primary and revision shoulder arthroplasty with Lima Axioma TT metal-back glenoid with autologous bone graft and were more than 2 years since their operation. All eligible patients underwent computed tomographic evaluation, clinical review, and scoring. Early failures of composite fixation and patients who had revision procedures were excluded (2 patients). RESULTS: Forty-one patients (43 shoulders) with a mean age of 65 years (range 33-85 years) were reviewed. There were 24 women and 17 men. The average follow-up period was 40 months (range 24-59 months). Primary arthroplasty was performed in 24 shoulders, whereas 19 shoulders had revision arthroplasty. Twenty-five shoulders had reverse shoulder replacement and 18 had anatomic shoulder replacement. Twenty-four shoulders had graft taken from the humeral head, and 19 had iliac crest bone graft, reflecting the number of revisions. We used Wrightington classification for porous metal implant and bone graft incorporation. Satisfactory bone graft incorporation (>50%) was seen in 40 shoulders, and only 3 patients had <50% graft incorporation. The scans at 2 years or later showed no significant deterioration in the bone graft from the early postoperative scans. Average forward elevation improved from 50° (preoperative) to 98° (range 35°-150°). The mean improvement in mean Oxford Shoulder Score was 16 (preoperative, 15; postoperative, 31) and the mean improvement in Constant score improvement was 36 (preoperative, 12; postoperative, 48). The mean postoperative American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons Standardized Shoulder Assessment Form (ASES) score was 64 (range 30-85). CONCLUSION: The use of TT in conjunction with autologous bone graft provides a reliable method of addressing glenoid bone defects in primary and revision shoulder arthroplasty. This graft-trabecular metal composite has been shown to integrate well and remain largely unchanged over a 2-year period. A stable baseplate is essential in difficult primary and revision arthroplasty situations. The stability of this construct in our series is reflected in the satisfactory outcomes.
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Artroplastía de Reemplazo de Hombro , Articulación del Hombro , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Autoinjertos , Trasplante Óseo , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Rango del Movimiento Articular , Estudios Retrospectivos , Articulación del Hombro/diagnóstico por imagen , Articulación del Hombro/cirugía , Supervivencia , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Aims: Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA) can be used in complex cases when the glenoid requires reconstruction. In this study, a baseplate with composite bone autograft and a central trabecular titanium peg was implanted, and its migration was assessed for two years postoperatively using radiostereometric analysis (RSA). Methods: A total of 14 patients who underwent a rTSA with an autograft consented to participate. Of these, 11 had a primary rTSA using humeral head autograft and three had a revision rTSA with autograft harvested from the iliac crest. The mean age of the patients was 66 years (39 to 81). Tantalum beads were implanted in the scapula around the glenoid. RSA imaging (stereographic radiographs) was undertaken immediately postoperatively and at three, six, 12, and 24 months. Analysis was completed using model-based RSA software. Outcomes were collected preoperatively and at two years postoperatively, including the Oxford Shoulder Score, the American Shoulder and Elbow Score, and a visual analogue score for pain. A Constant score was also obtained for the assessment of strength and range of motion. Results: RSA analysis showed a small increase in all translation and rotational values up to six months postoperatively, consistent with settling of the implant. The mean values plateaued by 12 months, with no evidence of further migration. In four patients, there was significant variation outside the mean, which corresponded to postoperative complications. There was a significant improvement in the clinical and patient-reported outcomes from the preoperative values to those at two years postoperatively (p < 0.001). Conclusion: These findings show, using RSA, that a glenoid baseplate composite of a trabecular titanium peg with autograft stabilizes within the glenoid about 12 months after surgery, and reinforce findings from a previous study of this implant/graft with CT scans at two years postoperatively, indicating that this type of structural composite results in sound early fixation.
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Artroplastía de Reemplazo de Hombro , Cavidad Glenoidea , Articulación del Hombro , Humanos , Anciano , Artroplastía de Reemplazo de Hombro/métodos , Articulación del Hombro/diagnóstico por imagen , Articulación del Hombro/cirugía , Autoinjertos , Análisis Radioestereométrico , Titanio , Estudios Prospectivos , Escápula/diagnóstico por imagen , Escápula/cirugía , Estudios Retrospectivos , Rango del Movimiento Articular , Resultado del Tratamiento , Cavidad Glenoidea/cirugíaRESUMEN
Background: This study assesses outcomes in revision shoulder replacements where the glenoid bone loss was managed using a structural allograft (donated femoral head) in combination with a trabecular titanium (TT) implant. Methods: We contacted patients who had undergone revision shoulder arthroplasty using the Lima Axioma TT metal-backed glenoid with an allologous bone graft as a composite who were over 2 years since surgery. Patients underwent computerd tomography evaluation, clinical review, and scoring preoperatively, at 6 months and the latest follow-up. Results: Fifteen patients were included with a mean age of 59 (33-76). The average follow-up period was 40.5 months (24-51). 80% showed satisfactory bone graft incorporation and peg integration at the latest follow-up. Three had signs of significant bone graft resorption, although in 2 patients the pegs were still soundly fixed in the host bone. Clinically all patients showed a statistically significant improvement in pain relief, movement, and function. No unusual complications were reported. Conclusion: Results show femoral head structural allograft in combination with TT metal-backed glenoid baseplate is a viable option for revision total shoulder replacement in the context of massive glenoid bone loss. We do, however, acknowledge that this resorption rate is higher than in other reported series where autograft is used.
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INTRODUCTION: Indications for reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) have expanded over recent years. Whilst cuff tear arthropathy is an accepted indication, the results of its use in those without arthritis is not clear. The aim of this article is to review the literature on RTSA for massive rotator cuff tears without associated arthritis. METHODS: A systematic review search was performed in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to find all studies with clinical outcomes on RTSA performed for massive irreparable rotator cuff tears (MIRCT) without arthritis. RESULTS: Of the 160 studies produced by the search, a detailed analysis found 11 articles to be included in this review. There was variability in the implant style used and the outcome measures utilised, but all studies found improvement in the outcome following RTSA. Many studies advised judicious use following high complication rates, and caution was advised in those patients with pre-operatively preserved active forward elevation. CONCLUSION: The available evidence suggests that RTSA is a reliable option in older patients with persistent pain and lack of function following MIRCT even without arthritis. However, as outcomes are not significantly worse following failed rotator cuff repair, joint preserving options in the younger age group should be carefully considered in light of the relatively high complication rate associated with RTSA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.
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The management of glenoid bone loss is a major challenge in both complex primary and revision arthroplasty surgery. To deal with this problem, a number of techniques have been advocated, although there has been no previous systematic review of the literature. In the present review, we have attempted to identify a coherent strategy for addressing this problem, taking into account the degree of bone loss, the advantages and limits of standard implants, bone reconstruction techniques and the use of customized prostheses.