Two decades of clear-cutting threats in the Brazilian Amazonian protected areas around the Jirau, Santo Antônio, and Belo Monte large dams.

Deforestation rates in the Amazon have markedly increased in the last few years, affecting non-protected and protected areas (PAs). Brazil is a hotspot of Protected Area Downgrading, Downsizing, and Degazettement (PADDD) events, with most events associated with infrastructure projects. Despite the threats dams impose on PAs, there is a knowledge gap in assessing deforestation in PAs around large dams in the Amazon. This study investigates how deforestation affects Biodiversity Protection Areas (BioPAs) and Indigenous Lands around the Jirau and Santo Antônio (JSA) dams (Madeira River, Rondônia) and Belo Monte dam (Xingu River, Pará) in the Brazilian Amazon. We compared clear-cutting between PAs and control areas and the annual rates of forest change between pre-dam and post-dam periods. We discussed deforestation-related factors (e.g., PADDD events and the presence of management plans or councils). Our results show an increase in deforestation after the operation of the dams when environmental control from licensing agencies decreases and other political and economic factors are in practice. Indigenous Lands experienced a significant increase in deforestation around the Belo Monte dam, which is associated with the demarcation process and land conflicts. Surrounding the JSA dams, sustainable use BioPAs showed high deforestation rates, and 27 PADDD events were reported, four directly related to dams. In addition to dams, deforestation was associated with the crisis of Brazilian democracy and the weakening of environmental policies. In conclusion, the weak environmental control from environmental licensing agencies during dam operation and PADDD events have contributed to increased deforestation rates and additional stresses in the Amazon.

Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics.

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.