Status of the national immunization technical advisory groups in the Americas: recommendations for improvement.

Objectives: To evaluate the structure and operation of national immunization technical advisory groups (NITAGs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and to make recommendations for improvement. Methods: A convenience sample of six current and eight former NITAG members representing 12 countries in the region were invited in 2022 to answer a web-based questionnaire on NITAG structure, organization, and procedures. The questionnaire used indicators similar to those in the Joint Reporting Form on Immunization. Participants were also asked about the role their NITAGs played in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immunization policies. Results: Brazil, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) reported not having an active NITAG. The nine active NITAGs are structured and organized according to World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization recommendations, with variations between countries. Most NITAGs include representatives of the five recommended medical specialties with the participation of additional members possible. Only Bolivia (Plurinational State of) and Mexico have no explicit policy for managing members' potential conflicts of interest. All NITAGs have an exclusively technical advisory role and generally meet once a quarter. Usually, NITAGs are asked by health ministries to analyze issues and make recommendations. All NITAGs, except for Peru's, actively participated in supporting decision-making for immunization policy on COVID-19. Conclusions: NITAGs have successfully supported vaccine policy-making through evidence-based recommendations. However, improvement in their structure, operation, and transparency is needed to help them keep up with the rapidly evolving field of immunization. Research on the impact of NITAGs is important to support the development of recommendations for improvement.

An anti-infodemic virtual center for the Americas.

The Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) Anti-Infodemic Virtual Center for the Americas (AIVCA) is a project led by the Department of Evidence and Intelligence for Action in Health, PAHO and the Center for Health Informatics, PAHO/WHO Collaborating Center on Information Systems for Health, at the University of Illinois, with the participation of PAHO staff and consultants across the region. Its goal is to develop a set of tools-pairing AI with human judgment-to help ministries of health and related health institutions respond to infodemics. Public health officials will learn about emerging threats detected by the center and get recommendations on how to respond. The virtual center is structured with three parallel teams: detection, evidence, and response. The detection team will employ a mixture of advanced search queries, machine learning, and other AI techniques to sift through more than 800 million new public social media posts per day to identify emerging infodemic threats in both English and Spanish. The evidence team will use the EasySearch federated search engine backed by AI, PAHO's knowledge management team, and the Librarian Reserve Corps to identify the most relevant authoritative sources. The response team will use a design approach to communicate recommended response strategies based on behavioural science, storytelling, and information design approaches.

El centro virtual contra la infodemia para la Región de las Américas de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud/Organización Mundial de la Salud (OPS/OMS) es un proyecto liderado por el Departamento de Evidencia e Inteligencia para la Acción en la Salud de la OPS y el Center for Health Informatics de la Universidad de Illinois, centro colaborador de la OPS/OMS en sistemas de información para la salud, con la participación de personal y consultores de la OPS en toda la Región. Su objetivo es crear un conjunto de herramientas que combinen inteligencia artificial (IA) y los criterios humanos para apoyar a los ministerios de salud y las instituciones relacionadas con la salud en la respuesta a la infodemia. Los funcionarios de salud pública recibirán formación sobre las amenazas emergentes detectadas por el centro y recomendaciones sobre cómo abordarlas. El centro virtual está estructurado en tres equipos paralelos: detección, evidencia y respuesta. El equipo de detección empleará una combinación de consultas mediante búsqueda avanzada, aprendizaje automático y otras técnicas de IA para evaluar más de 800 millones de publicaciones nuevas en las redes sociales al día con el fin de detectar amenazas emergentes en el ámbito de la infodemia tanto en inglés como en español. El equipo de evidencia hará uso del motor de búsqueda federado EasySearch y, con el apoyo de la IA, el equipo de gestión del conocimiento de la OPS y la red Librarian Reserve Corps, determinará cuáles son las fuentes autorizadas más pertinentes. El equipo de respuesta utilizará un enfoque vinculado al diseño para difundir las estrategias recomendadas sobre la base de las ciencias del comportamiento, la narración de historias y el diseño de la información.

O Centro Virtual Anti-Infodemia para as Américas (AIVCA, na sigla em inglês) da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde/Organização Mundial da Saúde (OPAS/OMS) é um projeto liderado pelo Departamento de Evidência e Inteligência para a Ação em Saúde da OPAS e pelo Centro de Informática em Saúde da Universidade de Illinois, EUA (Centro Colaborador da OPAS/OMS para Sistemas de Informação para a Saúde), com a participação de funcionários e consultores da OPAS de toda a região. Seu objetivo é desenvolver um conjunto de ferramentas ­ combinando a inteligência artificial (IA) com o discernimento humano ­ para ajudar os ministérios e instituições de saúde a responder às infodemias. As autoridades de saúde pública aprenderão sobre as ameaças emergentes detectadas pelo centro e obterão recomendações sobre como responder. O centro virtual está estruturado com três equipes paralelas: detecção, evidência e resposta. A equipe de detecção utilizará consultas de pesquisa avançada, machine learning (aprendizagem de máquina) e outras técnicas de IA para filtrar mais de 800 milhões de novas postagens públicas nas redes sociais por dia, a fim de identificar ameaças infodêmicas emergentes em inglês e espanhol. A equipe de evidência usará o mecanismo de busca federada EasySearch, com apoio de IA, da equipe de gestão de conhecimento da OPAS e do Librarian Reserve Corps (LRC), para identificar as fontes abalizadas mais relevantes. A equipe de resposta usará uma abordagem de design para comunicar estratégias de resposta recomendadas com base em abordagens de ciência comportamental, narração de histórias e design da informação.

Universal influenza vaccination: a Mexican Expert Position Paper.

OBJECTIVE: Influenza is a costly disease for the population. It is a cause of seasonal morbidity and mortality, epidemics and pandemics or syndemics. Given the variability of the virus, surveillance systems are implemented in order to update the strains and include them in the annual influenza vaccine. This vaccine is currently recommended in some high-risk groups. However, universal vaccination remains controversial. To evaluate the evidence and describe the position of a panel of experts on the relevance of universal vaccination against influenza virus. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Five clinical questions were asked, whereby a systematic search of the literature in electronic sources and a Delphi panel were carried out. The evidence was analyzed, and recommendations were issued by the experts. RESULTS: The group of experts recommends vaccinating the population starting at six months of age and include people who live with egg protein allergy, with comorbidities (diabetes, obesity, cancer), health workers and pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination, starting with vulnerable groups, is a necessary, ethical and cost-effective strategy. However, expanding the coverage to achieve universal vaccination could reduce the transmission of the disease and its consequences in the population.

OBJETIVO: La influenza es una enfermedad costosa para la población. Es causa de morbimortalidad estacional, epidemias y pandemias o sindemias. Debido a la variabilidad del virus, se implementan sistemas de vigilancia para actualizar las cepas e incluirlas en la vacuna antiinfluenza anual. Actualmente se recomienda esta vacuna en algunos grupos de alto riesgo. Sin embargo, la vacunación universal es aún controvertida. Evaluar la evidencia y describir la posición de un panel de expertos sobre la pertinencia de la vacunación universal contra el virus de influenza. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se realizaron cinco preguntas clínicas, con las que se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de la literatura en fuentes electrónicas y un panel Delphi. Se analizó la evidencia y se emitieron recomendaciones por los expertos. RESULTADOS: El grupo de expertos recomienda vacunar a la población desde los seis meses de edad e incluir a personas que viven con alergia a la proteína del huevo, con comorbilidades (diabetes, obesidad, cáncer), trabajadores de la salud y embarazadas. CONCLUSIONES: La vacunación, iniciando con los grupos vulnerables, es una estrategia necesaria, ética y costo-efectiva. Sin embargo, extender la cobertura para lograr la vacunación universal podría disminuir la transmisión de la enfermedad y sus consecuencias en la población.

Influenza in the school-aged population in Mexico: burden of disease and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in children.

BACKGROUND: The current national influenza vaccination schedule in Mexico does not recommend vaccination in the school-aged population (5-11 years). Currently, there are limited data from middle-income countries analysing the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in this population. We explored the clinical effects and economic benefits of expanding the current national influenza vaccination schedule in Mexico to include the school-aged population. METHODS: A static 1-year model incorporating herd effect was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of expanding the current national influenza vaccination schedule of Mexico to include the school-aged population. We performed a cross-sectional epidemiological study using influenza records (2009-2018), death records (2010-2015), and discharge and hospitalisation records (2010-2016), from the databases of Mexico's Influenza Surveillance System (SISVEFLU), the National Mortality Epidemiological and Statistical System (SEED), and the Automated Hospital Discharge System (SAEH), respectively. Cost estimates for influenza cases were based on 7 scenarios using data analysed from SISVEFLU; assumptions for clinical management of cases were defined according to Mexico's national clinical guidelines. The primary health outcome for this study was the number of influenza cases avoided. A sensitivity analysis was performed using conservative and optimistic parameters (vaccination coverage: 30% / 70%, Vaccine effectiveness: 19% / 68%). RESULTS: It was estimated that expanding the influenza immunisation programme to cover school-aged population in Mexico over the 2018-2019 influenza season would result in 671,461 cases of influenza avoided (50% coverage and 50% effectiveness assumed). Associated with this were 262,800 fewer outpatient consultations; 154,100 fewer emergency room consultations; 97,600 fewer hospitalisations, and 15 fewer deaths. Analysis of cases avoided by age-group showed that 55.4% of them were in the school-aged population, and the decrease in outpatient consultations was largest in this population. There was an overall decrease in the economic burden for the Mexican health care system of 111.9 million US dollars; the immunization programme was determined to be cost-saving in the base, conservative and optimistic scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating school-aged population in Mexico would be cost-effective; expansion of the current national vaccination schedule to this age group is supported.

[First Mexican Consensus of Vaccination in Adults]. / 1º Consenso Mexicano de Vacunación en el Adulto.

For years our efforts have been focused on vaccination during childhood. Today we know that this is not enough to ensure health in the rest of the life. Childhood is as important as any other stage and, therefore, vaccination must be permanent and differentiated, according to our age, throughout life. Introducing a life course perspective in vaccination programs, with emphasis on adult vaccination, particularly in older adults, offers us the opportunity to review the performance of health programs, actions, and services in the field of immunization, as well as strengthening health promotion actions. In this context, the first Mexican Consensus on Adult Vaccination was carried out in a joint effort of the National Institute of Geriatrics, bringing together a group of specialists who worked on three central objectives: establishing vaccination guidelines throughout the life course, with emphasis on new vaccines; defining priority groups according to their risk factors; and contributing to the effort to promote healthy aging.

[Results of the First Mexican Consensus of Vaccination in the Adult]. / Resultados del Primer Consenso Mexicano de Vacunación en el Adulto.

For years our efforts have been focused on vaccination during childhood. Today we know that this is not enough to ensure health in the rest of the life. Childhood is as important as any other stage and, therefore, vaccination must be permanent and differentiated, according to our age, throughout life. Introducing a life course perspective in vaccination programs, with emphasis on adult vaccination, particularly in older adults, offers us the opportunity to review the performance of health programs, actions, and services in the field of immunization, as well as strengthening health promotion actions. In this context, the first Mexican Consensus on Adult Vaccination was carried out in a joint effort of the National Institute of Geriatrics, bringing together a group of specialists who worked on three central objectives: establishing vaccination guidelines throughout the life course, with emphasis on new vaccines; defining priority groups according to their risk factors; and contributing to the effort to promote healthy aging.

Improved post-marketing safety surveillance of quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Mexico using a computerized, SMS-based follow-up system.

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) are designed to prevent influenza disease caused by two influenza A viruses (H1N1 and H3N2) and both influenza B lineages. Risk-monitoring of QIVs to identify adverse events (AEs) is necessary as influenza vaccines are reformulated each year. We developed a new active surveillance system (Sistema de Control de Vacunación; SICOVA) to improve pharmacovigilance in Mexico. Participants (N = 2013) aged 0 - 96 years from nine sites across three influenza seasons (n = 1166 in 2015 - 2016; n = 633 in 2016 - 2017; and n = 214 in 2017 - 2018) agreed to receive text messages 1, 7, 28, and 42 days post-vaccination to know if they had experienced any AEs. The study was completed electronically by 1763 (87.6%) participants; manual follow-up was conducted for 250 participants whose reporting was incomplete. The overall AE rate was 9.09%. At least one AE was reported by 183 participants, of whom 131 (71.58%) did not require a medical visit and 52 (28.42%) needed medical attention, with none requiring hospitalization. Most AEs requiring medical attention occurred in children aged 0 - 5 years (n = 22, 42.31%) and adults aged 31 - 35 years (n = 5, 9.62%). These results are consistent with the established safety profile of Fluzone® Quadrivalent, and show that SICOVA can facilitate surveillance and increase AE reporting in Mexico.

Vaccination coverage estimation in Mexico in children under five years old: Trends and associated factors.

We aimed to estimate vaccination coverage and factors associated in completing schemes in children under 5 years old between 2000 and 2018. A secondary analysis was carried out on five national health surveys between 2000 and 2018 in Mexico. The sample was 53,898 children under 5 years old, where 30% of missing vaccination information was imputed using chained equations. During this period two basic vaccination schemes (CBS) were identified. For each doses and vaccines of both schemes and completed CBS, the coverage was estimated using weighted logistic regression models. Additionally, the factors associated with incomplete schemes were reported. Between 2000 and 2018, the caretakers who did not show the vaccination card went from 13.8% to 45.6%. During this period, the estimated vaccination coverages did not exceed 95%, except for BCG and marginally the first doses of vaccines against pneumococcus, acellular pentavalent, and Sabin. In the same period, the CBS estimated coverage decreased steadily and was under 90%, except for children aged 6-11 months (92.6%; 91.5-93.7) in 2000. Not having health insurance stands out as an associated factor with incomplete vaccination schemes. In conclusion, the imputation allowed to recuperate information and obtain better data of vaccination coverage. The estimated vaccination coverage and CBS do not reach sufficient levels to guarantee herd immunity, hence innovative strategies to improve vaccination must be established in Mexico.

A Call for a Reform of the Influenza Immunization Program in Mexico: Epidemiologic and Economic Evidence for Decision Making.

Limited information is available to determine the effectiveness of Mexico's national influenza vaccination guidelines and inform policy updates. We aim to propose reforms to current influenza vaccination policies based on our analysis of cost-effectiveness studies. This cross-sectional epidemiological study used influenza case, death, discharge and hospitalization data from several influenza seasons and applied a one-year decision-analytic model to assess cost-effectiveness. The primary health outcome was influenza cases avoided; secondary health outcomes were influenza-related events associated with case reduction. By increasing vaccination coverage to 75% in the population aged 12-49 years with risk factors (diabetes, high blood pressure, morbid obesity, chronic renal failure, asthma, pregnancy), and expanding universal vaccination coverage to school-aged children (5-11 years) and adults aged 50-59 years, 7142-671,461 influenza cases; 1-15 deaths; 7615-262,812 healthcare visits; 2886-154,143 emergency room admissions and 2891-97,637 hospitalizations could be prevented (ranges correspond to separate age and risk factor groups), with a net annual savings of 3.90 to 111.99 million USD. Such changes to the current vaccination policy could potentially result in significant economic and health benefits. These data could be used to inform the revision of a vaccination policy in Mexico with substantial social value.

Public Health and Economic Benefits of Influenza Vaccination of the Population Aged 50 to 59 Years without Risk Factors for Influenza Complications in Mexico: A Cross-Sectional Epidemiological Study.

The Mexican influenza vaccination program does not include a recommendation for people aged 50-59 years without risk factors for influenza complications, and there are limited data regarding the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating this population. To explore the clinical and economic effects of including this population in the vaccination schedule, we performed a cross-sectional epidemiological study using records (2009-2018) from Mexico's Influenza Surveillance System (SISVEFLU), death records (2010-2015) from the National Mortality Epidemiological and Statistical System, and discharge and hospitalization records (2010-2015) from the Automated Hospital Discharge System databases. A 1-year decision-analytic model was used to assess cost-effectiveness through a decision-tree based on data from SISVEFLU. The primary outcome was influenza cases avoided; with associated influenza-related events as secondary outcomes. Including the population aged 50-59 years without risk factors in Mexico's influenza immunization program would have resulted in 199,500 fewer cases; 67,008 fewer outpatient consultations; 33,024 fewer emergency room consultations; 33,091 fewer hospitalizations; 12 fewer deaths. These reductions equate to a substantial public health benefit as well as an economic benefit; yielding net savings of 49.8 million US dollars over a typical influenza season. Expansion of the current Mexican vaccination schedule to include these people would be a cost-saving and dominant strategy.

[Current situation of A/H1N1 influenza in the world]. / Situación actual de la influenza A(H1N1) en el mundo.

Between March and April, 2009 a new strain of influenza capable of causing severe disease and mortality in humans was identified in North America, leading to the declaration by the World Health Organization (WHO) of the first pandemic of the 21st Century. The prompt intervention of World Health authorities allowed the early identification of the virus as triple assortment A(H1N1) derived from avian, swine and human viruses, and a descendant of the A(H1N1) virus that caused the 1918 influenza pandemic. International reports reflect a homogeneous disease that affects mainly the young, with severe cases in chronic patients, small children, the elderly, and pregnant women. Currently, the whole world, under the leadership of the WHO, is implementing pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions to try and stop viral transmission. There are still many questions unanswered, particularly about the future behavior of the virus. Nevertheless, until now the world has demonstrated the capacity to successfully face, in a coordinated fashion, one of the greatest known threats to international public health.

Influence of obesity, parental history of diabetes, and genes in type 2 diabetes: A case-control study.

Obesity, parental history (PH) of type 2 diabetes (T2D), and genes play an important role in T2D development. However, the influence of each factor on T2D variability is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the influence of obesity (body mass index [BMI], waist/hip ratio), PH, and 16 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with T2D on T2D variability in Mexico, comparing 1234 non-diabetic controls and 1219 diabetic patients. To replicate the data, a case-control (n = 2904) and a cross-sectional (n = 1901) study were also included. In a multivariate logistic regression model, all factors accounted for only 27.3% of T2D variability: SNPs (8.4%); PH (11.8%) and obesity (7.1%). These factors contributed more in men (33.2%) than in women (25%), specifically when the disease was diagnosed before the age of 46 (46.7% vs. 30%). Genes played a substantially more important role in men than in women (14.9% vs. 5.5%), while obesity and PH played a similar role in both genders. Genes and PH appeared to play a greater role than obesity in T2D. However, obesity contribution was calculated at the time of recruitment and may be underestimated in patients because the BMI decreased linearly with the number of years with the disease. The data suggest that sexual hormones may play important roles in genes that are associated with T2D.

An anti-infodemic virtual center for the Americas / Un centro virtual contra la infodemia para la Región de las Américas / Um centro virtual anti-infodemia para as Américas

ABSTRACT The Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) Anti-Infodemic Virtual Center for the Americas (AIVCA) is a project led by the Department of Evidence and Intelligence for Action in Health, PAHO and the Center for Health Informatics, PAHO/WHO Collaborating Center on Information Systems for Health, at the University of Illinois, with the participation of PAHO staff and consultants across the region. Its goal is to develop a set of tools—pairing AI with human judgment—to help ministries of health and related health institutions respond to infodemics. Public health officials will learn about emerging threats detected by the center and get recommendations on how to respond. The virtual center is structured with three parallel teams: detection, evidence, and response. The detection team will employ a mixture of advanced search queries, machine learning, and other AI techniques to sift through more than 800 million new public social media posts per day to identify emerging infodemic threats in both English and Spanish. The evidence team will use the EasySearch federated search engine backed by AI, PAHO's knowledge management team, and the Librarian Reserve Corps to identify the most relevant authoritative sources. The response team will use a design approach to communicate recommended response strategies based on behavioural science, storytelling, and information design approaches.

RESUMEN El centro virtual contra la infodemia para la Región de las Américas de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud/Organización Mundial de la Salud (OPS/OMS) es un proyecto liderado por el Departamento de Evidencia e Inteligencia para la Acción en la Salud de la OPS y el Center for Health Informatics de la Universidad de Illinois, centro colaborador de la OPS/OMS en sistemas de información para la salud, con la participación de personal y consultores de la OPS en toda la Región. Su objetivo es crear un conjunto de herramientas que combinen inteligencia artificial (IA) y los criterios humanos para apoyar a los ministerios de salud y las instituciones relacionadas con la salud en la respuesta a la infodemia. Los funcionarios de salud pública recibirán formación sobre las amenazas emergentes detectadas por el centro y recomendaciones sobre cómo abordarlas. El centro virtual está estructurado en tres equipos paralelos: detección, evidencia y respuesta. El equipo de detección empleará una combinación de consultas mediante búsqueda avanzada, aprendizaje automático y otras técnicas de IA para evaluar más de 800 millones de publicaciones nuevas en las redes sociales al día con el fin de detectar amenazas emergentes en el ámbito de la infodemia tanto en inglés como en español. El equipo de evidencia hará uso del motor de búsqueda federado EasySearch y, con el apoyo de la IA, el equipo de gestión del conocimiento de la OPS y la red Librarian Reserve Corps, determinará cuáles son las fuentes autorizadas más pertinentes. El equipo de respuesta utilizará un enfoque vinculado al diseño para difundir las estrategias recomendadas sobre la base de las ciencias del comportamiento, la narración de historias y el diseño de la información.

RESUMO O Centro Virtual Anti-Infodemia para as Américas (AIVCA, na sigla em inglês) da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde/Organização Mundial da Saúde (OPAS/OMS) é um projeto liderado pelo Departamento de Evidência e Inteligência para a Ação em Saúde da OPAS e pelo Centro de Informática em Saúde da Universidade de Illinois, EUA (Centro Colaborador da OPAS/OMS para Sistemas de Informação para a Saúde), com a participação de funcionários e consultores da OPAS de toda a região. Seu objetivo é desenvolver um conjunto de ferramentas — combinando a inteligência artificial (IA) com o discernimento humano — para ajudar os ministérios e instituições de saúde a responder às infodemias. As autoridades de saúde pública aprenderão sobre as ameaças emergentes detectadas pelo centro e obterão recomendações sobre como responder. O centro virtual está estruturado com três equipes paralelas: detecção, evidência e resposta. A equipe de detecção utilizará consultas de pesquisa avançada, machine learning (aprendizagem de máquina) e outras técnicas de IA para filtrar mais de 800 milhões de novas postagens públicas nas redes sociais por dia, a fim de identificar ameaças infodêmicas emergentes em inglês e espanhol. A equipe de evidência usará o mecanismo de busca federada EasySearch, com apoio de IA, da equipe de gestão de conhecimento da OPAS e do Librarian Reserve Corps (LRC), para identificar as fontes abalizadas mais relevantes. A equipe de resposta usará uma abordagem de design para comunicar estratégias de resposta recomendadas com base em abordagens de ciência comportamental, narração de histórias e design da informação.

Supply-side interventions to improve health: Findings from the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Results-based aid (RBA) is increasingly used to incentivize action in health. In Mesoamerica, the region consisting of southern Mexico and Central America, the RBA project known as the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI) was designed to target disparities in maternal and child health, focusing on the poorest 20% of the population across the region. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were first collected in 365 intervention health facilities to establish a baseline of indicators. For the first follow-up measure, 18 to 24 months later, 368 facilities were evaluated in these same areas. At both stages, we measured a near-identical set of supply-side performance indicators in line with country-specific priorities in maternal and child health. All countries showed progress in performance indicators, although with different levels. El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama reached their 18-month targets, while the State of Chiapas in Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize did not. A second follow-up measurement in Chiapas and Guatemala showed continued progress, as they achieved previously missed targets nine to 12 months later, after implementing a performance improvement plan. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show an initial success in the supply-side indicators of SMI. Our data suggest that the RBA approach can be a motivator to improve availability of drugs and services in poor areas. Moreover, our innovative monitoring and evaluation framework will allow health officials with limited resources to identify and target areas of greatest need.

Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. CONCLUSION: With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue.

Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions.

Strengthening vaccination policies in Latin America: an evidence-based approach.

Despite many successes in the region, Latin American vaccination policies have significant shortcomings, and further work is needed to maintain progress and prepare for the introduction of newly available vaccines. In order to address the challenges facing Latin America, the Commission for the Future of Vaccines in Latin America (COFVAL) has made recommendations for strengthening evidence-based policy-making and reducing regional inequalities in immunisation. We have conducted a comprehensive literature review to assess the feasibility of these recommendations. Standardisation of performance indicators for disease burden, vaccine coverage, epidemiological surveillance and national health resourcing can ensure comparability of the data used to assess vaccination programmes, allowing deeper analysis of how best to provide services. Regional vaccination reference schemes, as used in Europe, can be used to develop best practice models for vaccine introduction and scheduling. Successful models exist for the continuous training of vaccination providers and decision-makers, with a new Latin American diploma aiming to contribute to the successful implementation of vaccination programmes. Permanent, independent vaccine advisory committees, based on the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), could facilitate the uptake of new vaccines and support evidence-based decision-making in the administration of national immunisation programmes. Innovative financing mechanisms for the purchase of new vaccines, such as advance market commitments and cost front-loading, have shown potential for improving vaccine coverage. A common regulatory framework for vaccine approval is needed to accelerate delivery and pool human, technological and scientific resources in the region. Finally, public-private partnerships between industry, government, academia and non-profit sectors could provide new investment to stimulate vaccine development in the region, reducing prices in the long term. These reforms are now crucial, particularly as vaccines for previously neglected, developing-world diseases become available. In summary, a regionally-coordinated health policy will reduce vaccination inequality in Latin America.

Dengue: an escalating public health problem in Latin America.

Dengue infection is a significant and escalating public health problem in Latin America. Its re-emergence and subsequent rise in the region over the past 50 years has largely been caused by a combination of a lack of political will, the radical growth of urban populations, migration flow and insufficient financial resources. Its increased incidence has been compounded by climate change, poor sanitation and extreme poverty, which lead to more breeding sites of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti. In order to control dengue effectively, an integrated approach incorporating vector management and environmental and social solutions is required. To achieve success, these programmes require commitment and responses at both national and community level. The development of a vaccine is a vital tool in the fight against dengue. For successful introduction, those implementing vaccination need to be educated on the value of such a strategy. Effective political leadership, innovative financial mechanisms and co-operation across all disciplines, sectors and national borders are essential to eradication of the disease.