Pollinator foraging tactics have divergent consequences for the mating system of a tropical plant.

Resolving the consequences of pollinator foraging behaviour for plant mating systems is a fundamental challenge in evolutionary ecology. Pollinators may adopt particular foraging tactics: complete trapline foraging (repeated movements along a fixed route), sample-and-shift trapline foraging (a variable route that incorporates information from previous experiences) and territorial foraging (stochastic movements within a restricted area). Studies that integrate these pollinator foraging tactics with plant mating systems are generally lacking. We investigate the consequences of particular pollinator foraging tactics for Heliconia tortuosa. We combine parentage and sibship inference analysis with simulation modelling to: estimate mating system parameters; infer the foraging tactic adopted by the pollinators; and quantify the impact of pollinator foraging tactics on mating system parameters. We found high outcrossing rates, ubiquitous multiple paternity and a pronounced departure from near-neighbour mating. We also found that plants repeatedly receive pollen from a series of particular donors. We infer that the pollinators primarily adopt complete trapline foraging and occasionally engage in sample-and-shift trapline foraging. This enhances multiple paternity without a substantial increase in near-neighbour mating. The particular pollinator foraging tactics have divergent consequences for multiple paternity and near-neighbour mating. Thus, pollinator foraging behaviour is an important driver of the ecology and evolution of plant mating systems.

Bee diversity decreases rapidly with time since harvest in intensively managed conifer forests.

Despite widespread concerns about the anthropogenic drivers of global pollinator declines, little information is available about the impacts of land management practices on wild bees outside of agricultural systems, including in forests managed intensively for wood production. We assessed changes in wild bee communities with time since harvest in 60 intensively managed Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands across a gradient in stand ages spanning a typical harvest rotation. We measured bee abundance, species richness, and alpha and beta diversity, as well as habitat characteristics (i.e., floral resources, nesting substrates, understory vegetation, and early seral forest in the surrounding landscape) during the spring and summer of 2018 and 2019. We found that bee abundance and species richness declined rapidly with stand age, decreasing by 61% and 48%, respectively, for every 5 years since timber harvest. Asymptotic estimates of Shannon and Simpson diversity were highest in stands 6-10 years post-harvest and lowest after the forest canopy had closed, ~11 years post-harvest. Bee communities in older stands were nested subsets of bee communities found in younger stands, indicating that changes were due to species loss rather than turnover as the stands aged. Bee abundance-but not species richness-was positively associated with floral resource density, and neither metric was associated with floral richness. The amount of early seral forest in the surrounding landscape seemed to enhance bee species richness in older, closed-canopy stands, but otherwise had little effect. Changes in the relative abundance of bee species did not relate to bee functional characteristics such as sociality, diet breadth, or nesting substrate. Our study demonstrates that Douglas-fir plantations develop diverse communities of wild bees shortly after harvest, but those communities erode rapidly over time as forest canopies close. Therefore, stand-scale management activities that prolong the precanopy closure period and enhance floral resources during the initial stage of stand regeneration will provide the greatest opportunity to enhance bee diversity in landscapes dominated by intensively managed conifer forests.

Plant-hummingbird pollination networks exhibit limited rewiring after experimental removal of a locally abundant plant species.

Mutualistic relationships, such as those between plants and pollinators, may be vulnerable to the local extinctions predicted under global environmental change. However, network theory predicts that plant-pollinator networks can withstand species loss if pollinators switch to alternative floral resources (rewiring). Whether rewiring occurs following species loss in natural communities is poorly known because replicated species exclusions are difficult to implement at appropriate spatial scales. We experimentally removed a hummingbird-pollinated plant, Heliconia tortuosa, from within tropical forest fragments to investigate how hummingbirds respond to temporary loss of an abundant resource. Under the rewiring hypothesis, we expected that behavioural flexibility would allow hummingbirds to use alternative resources, leading to decreased ecological specialization and reorganization of the network structure (i.e. pairwise interactions). Alternatively, morphological or behavioural constraints-such as trait-matching or interspecific competition-might limit the extent to which hummingbirds alter their foraging behaviour. We employed a replicated Before-After-Control-Impact experimental design and quantified plant-hummingbird interactions using two parallel sampling methods: pollen collected from individual hummingbirds ('pollen networks', created from >300 pollen samples) and observations of hummingbirds visiting focal plants ('camera networks', created from >19,000 observation hours). To assess the extent of rewiring, we quantified ecological specialization at the individual, species and network levels and examined interaction turnover (i.e. gain/loss of pairwise interactions). H. tortuosa removal caused some reorganization of pairwise interactions but did not prompt large changes in specialization, despite the large magnitude of our manipulation (on average, >100 inflorescences removed in exclusion areas of >1 ha). Although some individual hummingbirds sampled through time showed modest increases in niche breadth following Heliconia removal (relative to birds that did not experience resource loss), these changes were not reflected in species- and network-level specialization metrics. Our results suggest that, at least over short time-scales, animals may not necessarily shift to alternative resources after losing an abundant food resource-even in species thought to be highly opportunistic foragers, such as hummingbirds. Given that rewiring contributes to theoretical predictions of network stability, future studies should investigate why pollinators might not expand their diets after a local resource extinction.

Fragmentation effects on an endangered species across a gradient from the interior to edge of its range.

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects individual species is complicated by challenges associated with quantifying species-specific habitat and spatial variability in fragmentation effects within a species' range. We aggregated a 29-year breeding survey data set for the endangered marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) from >42,000 forest sites throughout the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and northern California) of the United States. We built a species distribution model (SDM) in which occupied sites were linked with Landsat imagery to quantify murrelet-specific habitat and then used occupancy models to test the hypotheses that fragmentation negatively affects murrelet breeding distribution and that these effects are amplified with distance from the marine foraging habitat toward the edge of the species' nesting range. Murrelet habitat declined in the Pacific Northwest by 20% since 1988, whereas the proportion of habitat comprising edges increased by 17%, indicating increased fragmentation. Furthermore, fragmentation of murrelet habitat at landscape scales (within 2 km of survey stations) negatively affected occupancy of potential breeding sites, and these effects were amplified near the range edge. On the coast, the odds of occupancy decreased by 37% (95% confidence interval [CI] -54 to 12) for each 10% increase in edge habitat (i.e., fragmentation), but at the range edge (88 km inland) these odds decreased by 99% (95% CI 98 to 99). Conversely, odds of murrelet occupancy increased by 31% (95% CI 14 to 52) for each 10% increase in local edge habitat (within 100 m of survey stations). Avoidance of fragmentation at broad scales but use of locally fragmented habitat with reduced quality may help explain the lack of murrelet population recovery. Further, our results emphasize that fragmentation effects can be nuanced, scale dependent, and geographically variable. Awareness of these nuances is critical for developing landscape-level conservation strategies for species experiencing broad-scale habitat loss and fragmentation.

Efectos de la fragmentación sobre las especies en peligro a lo largo de un gradiente desde el interior hasta el borde de su distribución Resumen Es complicado entender el efecto de la fragmentación del hábitat sobre las especies individuales debido a los retos asociados con la cuantificación de hábitats específicos por especie y la variabilidad espacial de los efectos de la fragmentación dentro de la distribución de la especie. Combinamos los datos de un censo reproductivo realizado durante 29 años para el mérgulo jaspeado (Brachyramphus marmoratus) de >42,000 sitios boscosos a lo largo del noroeste del Pacífico (Oregón, Washington, y el norte de California, EE. UU.). Construimos un modelo de distribución de especie (MDE) en el cual los sitios ocupados estuvieron vinculados con imágenes de Landsat para cuantificar el hábitat específico del mérgulo y después usamos los modelos de ocupación para comprobar la hipótesis de que la fragmentación afecta negativamente la distribución reproductiva de la especie y que estos efectos se amplifican con la distancia entre el hábitat de forrajeo marino y el borde de la distribución de anidación de la especie. El hábitat del mérgulo declinó en la zona en un 20% a partir de 1988, mientras que la proporción de hábitat que comprende bordes incrementó en un 17%, lo que indica un aumento en la fragmentación. Además, la fragmentación del hábitat del mérgulo a escala de paisaje (a de 2 km de las estaciones de censo) afectó negativamente a la ocupación de sitios potenciales de reproducción y estos efectos se amplificaron cerca del borde de la distribución. La probabilidad de ocupación disminuyó en un 37% (95% IC -54 a 12) por cada 10% de incremento en el hábitat de borde (es decir, fragmentación) en la costa, pero en el borde de la distribución (88 km tierra adentro), esta probabilidad disminuyó en un 99% (95% IC 98 a 99). De forma contraria, la probabilidad de ocupación incrementó en un 31% (95% IC 14 a 52) por cada 10% de incremento en el hábitat de borde local (a 100 m de las estaciones de censo). La evasión de la fragmentación a gran escala y el uso de hábitats con calidad reducida y fragmentados a nivel local podría explicar la falta de recuperación poblacional del mérgulo. Más allá, nuestros resultados resaltan que los efectos de la fragmentación pueden estar matizados, depender de la escala y tener variación geográfica. Es importante tener conciencia de estos matices para desarrollar estrategias de conservación a nivel paisaje para las especies que experimentan fragmentación y pérdida del hábitat a gran escala.

Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes.

Global biodiversity loss is a critical environmental crisis, yet the lack of spatial data on biodiversity threats has hindered conservation strategies. Theory predicts that abrupt biodiversity declines are most likely to occur when habitat availability is reduced to very low levels in the landscape (10-30%). Alternatively, recent evidence indicates that biodiversity is best conserved by minimizing human intrusion into intact and relatively unfragmented landscapes. Here we use recently available forest loss data to test deforestation effects on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories of extinction risk for 19,432 vertebrate species worldwide. As expected, deforestation substantially increased the odds of a species being listed as threatened, undergoing recent upgrading to a higher threat category and exhibiting declining populations. More importantly, we show that these risks were disproportionately high in relatively intact landscapes; even minimal deforestation has had severe consequences for vertebrate biodiversity. We found little support for the alternative hypothesis that forest loss is most detrimental in already fragmented landscapes. Spatial analysis revealed high-risk hot spots in Borneo, the central Amazon and the Congo Basin. In these regions, our model predicts that 121-219 species will become threatened under current rates of forest loss over the next 30 years. Given that only 17.9% of these high-risk areas are formally protected and only 8.9% have strict protection, new large-scale conservation efforts to protect intact forests are necessary to slow deforestation rates and to avert a new wave of global extinctions.

Elevated inbreeding in Heliconia tortuosa is determined by tropical forest stand age, isolation and loss of hummingbird functional diversity.

Forest conversion and habitat loss are major threats to biological diversity. Forest regeneration can mitigate the negative effects of old-growth forest loss on species diversity, but less is known about the extent to which forest loss reduces genetic diversity in remnant populations and whether secondary forests play a role in the maintenance of genetic diversity. We quantified genetic diversity in a tropical hummingbird-pollinated understorey herb, Heliconia tortuosa, across a landscape mosaic of primary and secondary forest regrowth. Using microsatellite genotypes from >850 adult and juvenile plants within 33 forest patches and extensive bird surveys, we examined the effect of contemporary and historical landscape features including forest age (primary vs. secondary forest), stand isolation and pollinator assemblages on genetic diversity and levels of inbreeding in H. tortuosa. We found that inbreeding was up to three times higher in secondary forest, and this effect was amplified with reductions in primary forest in the surrounding landscape through reduced observed heterozygosity in isolated fragments. Inbreeding in forest patches was negatively correlated with the local frequency of specialist long-distance foraging traplining hummingbirds. Traplining hummingbirds therefore appear to facilitate mating among unrelated plants-an inference we tested using empirically parameterized simulations. Higher levels of inbreeding in H. tortuosa are therefore associated with reduced functional diversity of hummingbirds in secondary forests and forest patches isolated from primary forests. Our findings suggest a cryptic consequence of primary forest loss and secondary forest regeneration through the disruption of mutualistic interactions resulting in the erosion of genetic diversity in a common understorey plant.

Forest microclimate and composition mediate long-term trends of breeding bird populations.

Climate change is contributing to biodiversity redistributions and species declines. However, cooler microclimate conditions provided by old-growth forest structures compared with surrounding open or younger forests have been hypothesized to provide thermal refugia for species that are sensitive to climate warming and dampen the negative effects of warming on population trends of animals (i.e., the microclimate buffering hypothesis). In addition to thermal refugia, the compositional and structural diversity of old-growth forest vegetation itself may provide resources to species that are less available in forests with simpler structure (i.e., the insurance hypothesis). We used 8 years of breeding bird abundance data from a forested watershed, accompanied with sub-canopy temperature data, and ground- and LiDAR-based vegetation data to test these hypotheses and identify factors influencing bird population changes from 2011 to 2018. After accounting for imperfect detection, we found that for 5 of 20 bird species analyzed, abundance trends tended to be less negative or neutral at sites with cooler microclimates, which supports the microclimate buffering hypothesis. Negative effects of warming on two species were also reduced in locations with greater forest compositional diversity supporting the insurance hypothesis. We provide the first empirical evidence that complex forest structure and vegetation diversity confer microclimatic advantages to some animal populations in the face of climate change. Conservation of old-growth forests, or their characteristics in managed forests, could help slow the negative effects of climate warming on some breeding bird populations via microclimate buffering and possibly insurance effects.

Impacts of the Northwest Forest Plan on forest composition and bird populations.

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) initiated one of the most sweeping changes to forest management in the world, affecting 10 million hectares of federal land. The NWFP is a science-based plan incorporating monitoring and adaptive management and provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the influence of policy. We used >25 years of region-wide bird surveys, forest data, and land-ownership maps to test this policy's effect on biodiversity. Clearcutting decreased rapidly, and we expected populations of older-forest-associated birds to stabilize on federal land, but to continue declining on private industrial lands where clearcutting continued. In contrast, we expected declines in early-seral-associated species on federal land because of reduced anthropogenic disturbance since the NWFP. Bayesian hierarchical models revealed that bird species' population trends tracked changes in forest composition. However, against our expectations, declines of birds associated with older forests accelerated. These declines are partly explained by losses of older forests due to fire on federal land and continued clearcutting elsewhere. Indeed, the NWFP anticipated that reversing declines of older forests would take time. Overall, the early-seral ecosystem area was stable, but declined in two ecoregions-the Coast Range and Cascades-along with early-seral bird populations. Although the NWFP halted clearcutting on federal land, this has so far been insufficient to reverse declines in older-forest-associated bird populations. These findings underscore the importance of continuing to prioritize older forests under the NWFP and ensuring that the recently proposed creation of early-seral ecosystems does not impede the conservation and development of older-forest structure.

Reconciling biodiversity with timber production and revenue via an intensive forest management experiment.

Understanding how land-management intensification shapes the relationships between biodiversity, yield, and economic benefit is critical for managing natural resources. Yet, manipulative experiments that test how herbicides affect these relationships are scarce, particularly in forest ecosystems where considerable time lags exist between harvest revenue and initial investments. We assessed these relationships by combining 7 yr of biodiversity surveys (>800 taxa) and forecasts of timber yield and economic return from a replicated, large-scale experiment that manipulated herbicide application intensity in operational timber plantations. Herbicides reduced species richness across trophic groups (-18%), but responses by higher-level trophic groups were more variable (0-38% reduction) than plant responses (-40%). Financial discounting, a conventional economic method to standardize past and future cash flows, strongly modified biodiversity-revenue relationships caused by management intensity. Despite a projected 28% timber yield gain with herbicides, biodiversity-revenue trade-offs were muted when opportunity costs were high (i.e., economic discount rates ≥7%). Although herbicides can drive biodiversity-yield trade-offs, under certain conditions, financial discounting provides opportunities to reconcile biodiversity conservation with revenue.

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change influence broad-scale avian population declines.

Climate and land-use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land-use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high-resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land-use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.

Eating plants and planting forests for the climate.

The IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land addresses the closely coupled relationship between land use and climate change. The report notes the climate change mitigation potential of dietary shifts and afforestation. Here, we briefly discuss how decreases in ruminant meat consumption associated with dietary shifts have the potential to free up area for forests, allowing for greater CO2 sequestration and benefiting biodiversity, while simultaneously reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Herbicides and herbivory interact to drive plant community and crop-tree establishment.

Land management practices often directly alter vegetation structure and composition, but the degree to which ecological processes such as herbivory interact with management to influence biodiversity is less well understood. We hypothesized that large herbivores compound the effects of intensive forest management on early seral plant communities and plantation establishment (i.e., tree survival and growth), and the degree of such effects is dependent on the intensity of management practices. We established 225-m2 wild-ungulate (deer and elk) exclosures, nested within a manipulated gradient of management intensity (no-herbicide control, light herbicide, moderate herbicide, and intensive herbicide treatments), replicated at the scale of whole harvest units (10-19 ha). Vegetation structure, composition, and crop-tree responses to herbivory varied across the gradient of herbicide application during the first two years of stand establishment, with herbivory effects most evident at light and moderate herbicide treatments. In the moderate herbicide treatment, which approximates management applied to >2.5 million hectares in the Pacific Northwest, United States, foraging by deer and elk resulted in simplified, low-cover plant communities more closely resembling the intensive herbicide treatment. Herbivory further suppressed the growth of competing vegetation in the light herbicide treatment, improving crop-tree survival, and providing early evidence of an ecosystem service. By changing community composition and vegetation structure, intensive forest management alters foraging selectivity and subsequent plant-herbivore interactions; initial shifts in early seral communities are likely to influence understory plant communities and tree growth in later stages of forest development.

Pollinator recognition by a keystone tropical plant.

Understanding the mechanisms enabling coevolution in complex mutualistic networks remains a central challenge in evolutionary biology. We show for the first time, to our knowledge, that a tropical plant species has the capacity to discriminate among floral visitors, investing in reproduction differentially across the pollinator community. After we standardized pollen quality in 223 aviary experiments, successful pollination of Heliconia tortuosa (measured as pollen tube abundance) occurred frequently when plants were visited by long-distance traplining hummingbird species with specialized bills (mean pollen tubes = 1.21 ± 0.12 SE) but was reduced 5.7 times when visited by straight-billed territorial birds (mean pollen tubes = 0.20 ± 0.074 SE) or insects. Our subsequent experiments revealed that plants use the nectar extraction capacity of tropical hummingbirds, a positive function of bill length, as a cue to turn on reproductively. Furthermore, we show that hummingbirds with long bills and high nectar extraction efficiency engaged in daily movements at broad spatial scales (∼1 km), but that territorial species moved only short distances (<100 m). Such pollinator recognition may therefore affect mate selection and maximize receipt of high-quality pollen from multiple parents. Although a diffuse pollinator network is implied, because all six species of hummingbirds carry pollen of H. tortuosa, only two species with specialized bills contribute meaningfully to its reproduction. We hypothesize that this pollinator filtering behavior constitutes a crucial mechanism facilitating coevolution in multispecies plant-pollinator networks. However, pollinator recognition also greatly reduces the number of realized pollinators, thereby rendering mutualistic networks more vulnerable to environmental change.

Reproductive modification in forest plantations: impacts on biodiversity and society.

1000 I. 1000 II. 1001 III. 1014 IV. 1015 V. 1016 1016 References 1016 SUMMARY: Genetic engineering (GE) can be used to improve forest plantation productivity and tolerance of biotic and abiotic stresses. However, gene flow from GE forest plantations is a large source of ecological, social and legal controversy. The use of genetic technologies to mitigate or prevent gene flow has been discussed widely and should be technically feasible in a variety of plantation taxa. However, potential ecological effects of such modifications, and their social acceptability, are not well understood. Focusing on Eucalyptus, Pinus, Populus and Pseudotsuga - genera that represent diverse modes of pollination and seed dispersal - we conducted in-depth reviews of ecological processes associated with reproductive tissues. We also explored potential impacts of various forms of reproductive modification at stand and landscape levels, and means for mitigating impacts. We found little research on potential reactions by the public and other stakeholders to reproductive modification in forest plantations. However, there is considerable research on related areas that suggest key dimensions of concern and support. We provide detailed suggestions for research to understand the biological and social dimensions of containment technologies, and consider the role of regulatory and market restrictions that obstruct necessary ecological and genetic research.

Plant diversity enhances moth diversity in an intensive forest management experiment.

Intensive forest management (IFM) promises to help satisfy increasing global demand for wood but may come at the cost of local reductions to forest biodiversity. IFM often reduces early seral plant diversity as a result of efforts to eliminate plant competition with crop trees. If diversity is a function of bottom-up drivers, theory predicts that specialists at lower trophic levels (e.g., insect herbivores) should be particularly sensitive to reductions in plant diversity. We conducted a stand-level experiment to test bottom-up controls on moth community structure, as mediated by degrees of forest management intensity. Using a dataset of 12,003 moths representing 316 moth species, moth richness decreased only slightly, if at all, as herbicide intensity increased (P = 0.062); the moderate treatment, which is most commonly applied in the northwestern USA, was estimated to have 4.72 (±2.14 SE, P = 0.039) fewer species than the control. Structural equation modeling revealed strong support for an effect of herbicide on plant abundance, which influenced plant species richness and subsequently moth species richness. Moth species richness was associated with plant species richness and followed a power law function (z = 0.42, P = 0.006), which is surprisingly consistent with a recent large-scale experiment in agricultural systems, and provides support for bottom-up drivers of moth community structure. Moth abundance was not influenced by the direct effects of silvicultural herbicide treatments. Site-level effects and variation in pre-harvest vegetation communities resulted in residual broadleaf and herbaceous vegetation in even the most intensive treatment. Even at low densities, these residual deciduous and herbaceous plants supported higher than expected moth abundance and richness. We conclude that forest management practices that retain early seral vegetation diversity are the most likely to conserve moth communities.

Corridors restore animal-mediated pollination in fragmented tropical forest landscapes.

Tropical biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions have become heavily eroded through habitat loss. Animal-mediated pollination is required in more than 94% of higher tropical plant species and 75% of the world's leading food crops, but it remains unclear if corridors avert deforestation-driven pollination breakdown in fragmented tropical landscapes. Here, we used manipulative resource experiments and field observations to show that corridors functionally connect neotropical forest fragments for forest-associated hummingbirds and increase pollen transfer. Further, corridors boosted forest-associated pollinator availability in fragments by 14.3 times compared with unconnected equivalents, increasing overall pollination success. Plants in patches without corridors showed pollination rates equal to bagged control flowers, indicating pollination failure in isolated fragments. This indicates, for the first time, that corridors benefit tropical forest ecosystems beyond boosting local species richness, by functionally connecting mutualistic network partners. We conclude that small-scale adjustments to landscape configuration safeguard native pollinators and associated pollination services in tropical forest landscapes.

Information-Mediated Allee Effects in Breeding Habitat Selection.

Social information is used widely in breeding habitat selection and provides an efficient means for individuals to select habitat, but the population-level consequences of this process are not well explored. At low population densities, efficiencies may be reduced because there are insufficient information providers to cue high-quality habitat. This constitutes what we call an information-mediated Allee effect. We present the first general model for an information-mediated Allee effect applied to breeding habitat selection and unify personal and social information, Allee effects, and ecological traps into a common framework. In a second model, we consider an explicit mechanism of social information gathering through prospecting on conspecific breeding performance. In each model, we independently vary personal and social information use to demonstrate how dependency on social information may result in either weak or strong Allee effects that, in turn, affect population extinction risk. Abrupt transitions between outcomes can occur through reduced information transfer or small changes in habitat composition. Overall, information-mediated Allee effects may produce positive feedbacks that amplify population declines in species that are already experiencing environmentally driven stressors, such as habitat loss and degradation. Alternatively, social information has the capacity to rescue populations from ecological traps.

Tropical forest fragmentation limits pollination of a keystone understory herb.

Loss of native vegetation cover is thought to be a major driver of declines in pollination success worldwide. However, it is not well known whether reducing the fragmentation of remaining vegetation can ameliorate these negative effects. We tested the independent effects of composition vs. configuration on the reproductive success of a keystone tropical forest herb (Heliconia tortuosa). To do this we designed a large-scale mensurative experiment that independently varied connected forest-patch size (configuration) and surrounding amount of forest (composition). In each patch, we tested whether pollen tubes, fruit, and seed set were associated with these landscape variables. We also captured hummingbirds as an indication of pollinator availability in a subset of patches according to the same design. We found evidence for an effect of configuration on seed set of H. tortuosa, but not on other aspects of plant reproduction; proportion of seeds produced increased 40% across the gradient in patch size we observed (0.64 to > 1300 ha), independent of the amount of forest in the surrounding landscape at both local and landscape scales. We also found that the availability of pollinators was dependent upon forest configuration; hummingbird capture rates increased three and one-half times across the patch size gradient, independent of forest amount. Finally, pollinator availability was strongly positively correlated with seed set. We hypothesize that the effects of configuration on plant fitness that we observed are due to reduced pollen quality resulting from altered hummingbird availability and/or movement behavior. Our results suggest that prioritizing larger patches of tropical forest may be particularly important for conservation of this species.

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.

Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America.

Functional connectivity experiments reflect routine movement behavior of a tropical hummingbird species.

Translocation experiments, in which researchers displace animals and then monitor their movements to return home, are commonly used as tools to assess functional connectivity of fragmented landscapes. Such experiments are purported to have important advantages of being time efficient and of standardizing "motivation" to move across individuals. Yet, we lack tests of whether movement behavior of translocated birds reflects natural behavior of unmanipulated birds. We compared the routine movement behavior of a tropical hummingbird, the Green Hermit (Phaethornis guy), to that of experimentally translocated individuals. We tested for differences in site selection patterns during movement at two spatial scales (point and path levels). We also compared movement rates between treatments. Behaviors documented during translocation experiments reflected those observed during routine movements. At the point level, both translocated and non-translocated birds showed similar levels of preference for mature tropical forest. At the path level, step selection functions showed both translocated and non-translocated hummingbirds avoiding movement across non-forested matrix and selecting streams as movement corridors. Movement rates were generally higher during translocation experiments. However, the negative influence of forest cover on movement rates was proportionately similar in translocation and routine movement treatments. We report the first evidence showing that movement behavior of birds during translocation experiments is similar to their natural movement behavior. Therefore, translocation experiments may be reliable tools to address effects of landscape structure on animal movement. We observed consistent selection of landscape elements between translocated and non-translocated birds, indicating that both routine and translocation movement studies lead to similar conclusions regarding the effect of landscape structure and forest composition on functional connectivity. Our observation that hummingbirds avoid non-forest matrix and select riparian corridors also provides a potential mechanism for pollen limitation in fragmented tropical forest.