Comparison of nonparametric estimators of the expected number of recurrent events.

We compare the performance of nonparametric estimators for the mean number of recurrent events and provide a systematic overview for different recurrent event settings. The mean number of recurrent events is an easily interpreted marginal feature often used for treatment comparisons in clinical trials. Incomplete observations, dependencies between successive events, terminating events acting as competing risk, or gaps between at risk periods complicate the estimation. We use survival multistate models to represent different complex recurrent event situations, profiting from recent advances in nonparametric estimation for non-Markov multistate models, and explain several estimators by using multistate intensity processes, including the common Nelson-Aalen-type estimators with and without competing mortality. In addition to building on estimation of state occupation probabilities in non-Markov models, we consider a simple extension of the Nelson-Aalen estimator by allowing for dependence on the number of prior recurrent events. We pay particular attention to the assumptions required for the censoring mechanism, one issue being that some settings require the censoring process to be entirely unrelated while others allow for state-dependent or event-driven censoring. We conducted extensive simulation studies to compare the estimators in various complex situations with recurrent events. Our practical example deals with recurrent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations in a clinical study, which will also be used to illustrate two-sample-inference using resampling.

Alteplase for Acute Ischemic Stroke in Patients Aged >80 Years: Pooled Analyses of Individual Patient Data.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Expert guidelines specify no upper age limit for alteplase for thrombolysis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) but, until recently, European regulatory criteria restricted its use to patients aged 18 to 80 years. We performed pooled analyses of randomized controlled trial (RCT) and registry data to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of alteplase for AIS among patients aged >80 years to support a regulatory application to lift the upper age restriction. METHODS: Individual patient data were evaluated from 7 randomized trials of alteplase (0.9 mg/kg) versus placebo or open control for AIS, and the European SITS-UTMOST registry database. Clinical outcomes, including good functional outcome (score 0-1, modified Rankin Scale day 90 or Oxford Handicap Score day 180), were evaluated in the full RCT and registry populations, and specified age-based subgroups (≤80 or >80 years) who met existing European regulatory criteria for alteplase, excluding upper age restriction. RESULTS: Regardless of treatment allocation, 90-day mortality was lower among RCT patients aged ≤80 versus >80 years who otherwise met existing European regulatory criteria (246/2405 [10.2%] versus 307/1028 [29.9%], respectively). Among patients aged >80 years, alteplase versus placebo was associated with a higher proportion of good stroke outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-1; 99/518 [19.1%] versus 67/510 [13.1%]; P=0.0109) and similar 90-day mortality (153/518 [29.5%] versus 154/510 [30.2%]; P=0.8382). The odds of a good stroke outcome following alteplase allocation in the full RCT population were independent of age (P=0.7383). Good stroke outcome was reported for almost half (4821/11 169 [43.2%]) of the patients who received alteplase in routine practice. Outcomes in routine practice supported those achieved in RCTs. CONCLUSIONS: Alteplase for AIS has a positive benefit-risk profile among patients aged >80 years when administered according to other regulatory criteria. Alteplase for AIS should be evaluated on an individual benefit-risk basis.

Artificial neural networks for the prediction of solvation energies based on experimental and computational data.

The knowledge of thermodynamic properties for novel electrolyte formulations is of fundamental interest for industrial applications as well as academic research. Herewith, we present an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach for the prediction of solvation energies and entropies for distinct ion pairs in various protic and aprotic solvents. The considered feed-forward ANN is trained either by experimental data or computational results from conceptual density functional theory calculations. The proposed concept of mapping computed values to experimental data lowers the amount of time-consuming and costly experiments and helps to overcome certain limitations. Our findings reveal high correlation coefficients between predicted and experimental values which demonstrate the validity of our approach.

Empagliflozin, Cardiovascular Outcomes, and Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The effects of empagliflozin, an inhibitor of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2, in addition to standard care, on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk are not known. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients to receive 10 mg or 25 mg of empagliflozin or placebo once daily. The primary composite outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke, as analyzed in the pooled empagliflozin group versus the placebo group. The key secondary composite outcome was the primary outcome plus hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: A total of 7020 patients were treated (median observation time, 3.1 years). The primary outcome occurred in 490 of 4687 patients (10.5%) in the pooled empagliflozin group and in 282 of 2333 patients (12.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the empagliflozin group, 0.86; 95.02% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.99; P=0.04 for superiority). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of myocardial infarction or stroke, but in the empagliflozin group there were significantly lower rates of death from cardiovascular causes (3.7%, vs. 5.9% in the placebo group; 38% relative risk reduction), hospitalization for heart failure (2.7% and 4.1%, respectively; 35% relative risk reduction), and death from any cause (5.7% and 8.3%, respectively; 32% relative risk reduction). There was no significant between-group difference in the key secondary outcome (P=0.08 for superiority). Among patients receiving empagliflozin, there was an increased rate of genital infection but no increase in other adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for cardiovascular events who received empagliflozin, as compared with placebo, had a lower rate of the primary composite cardiovascular outcome and of death from any cause when the study drug was added to standard care. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly; EMPA-REG OUTCOME ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01131676.).

Fibrinolysis for patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: The role of fibrinolytic therapy in patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism is controversial. METHODS: In a randomized, double-blind trial, we compared tenecteplase plus heparin with placebo plus heparin in normotensive patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism. Eligible patients had right ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography or computed tomography, as well as myocardial injury as indicated by a positive test for cardiac troponin I or troponin T. The primary outcome was death or hemodynamic decompensation (or collapse) within 7 days after randomization. The main safety outcomes were major extracranial bleeding and ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke within 7 days after randomization. RESULTS: Of 1006 patients who underwent randomization, 1005 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. Death or hemodynamic decompensation occurred in 13 of 506 patients (2.6%) in the tenecteplase group as compared with 28 of 499 (5.6%) in the placebo group (odds ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.23 to 0.87; P=0.02). Between randomization and day 7, a total of 6 patients (1.2%) in the tenecteplase group and 9 (1.8%) in the placebo group died (P=0.42). Extracranial bleeding occurred in 32 patients (6.3%) in the tenecteplase group and 6 patients (1.2%) in the placebo group (P<0.001). Stroke occurred in 12 patients (2.4%) in the tenecteplase group and was hemorrhagic in 10 patients; 1 patient (0.2%) in the placebo group had a stroke, which was hemorrhagic (P=0.003). By day 30, a total of 12 patients (2.4%) in the tenecteplase group and 16 patients (3.2%) in the placebo group had died (P=0.42). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism, fibrinolytic therapy prevented hemodynamic decompensation but increased the risk of major hemorrhage and stroke. (Funded by the Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique in France and others; PEITHO EudraCT number, 2006-005328-18; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00639743.).

Online Tool to Improve Stratification of Adverse Events in Stroke Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Knowing characteristic adverse events (AEs) and their incidence among patients participating in acute stroke trials may assist interpretation of future studies. We aimed to develop an online tool to inform stroke trial safety. METHODS: We identified relevant AEs from patients within the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA), using receiver operating characteristic principles. We modeled their incidence on patient age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and comorbidities using binary logistic regression. Models with an R(2) >5% were deemed powerful enough to predict expected AE incidences and were included. The calculator was developed using programs R and Visual Studios. RESULTS: Forty-eight of the most common AEs were identified and incorporated into the IschAEmic Stroke Calculator. The calculator, publicly available at http://www.vistacollaboration.org calculates the expected incidence of AEs or groups of AEs in a trial cohort and where possible compares them with the observed incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The IschAEmic Stroke Calculator is an open access resource to support safety interpretation within acute stroke trials. Prediction of AEs with higher likelihood of occurrence may direct preventive clinical measures.

Effects of Alteplase for Acute Stroke on the Distribution of Functional Outcomes: A Pooled Analysis of 9 Trials.

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic therapy with intravenous alteplase within 4.5 hours of ischemic stroke onset increases the overall likelihood of an excellent outcome (no, or nondisabling, symptoms). Any improvement in functional outcome distribution has value, and herein we provide an assessment of the effect of alteplase on the distribution of the functional level by treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. METHODS: Prespecified pooled analysis of 6756 patients from 9 randomized trials comparing alteplase versus placebo/open control. Ordinal logistic regression models assessed treatment differences after adjustment for treatment delay, age, stroke severity, and relevant interaction term(s). RESULTS: Treatment with alteplase was beneficial for a delay in treatment extending to 4.5 hours after stroke onset, with a greater benefit with earlier treatment. Neither age nor stroke severity significantly influenced the slope of the relationship between benefit and time to treatment initiation. For the observed case mix of patients treated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset (mean 3 hours and 20 minutes), the net absolute benefit from alteplase (ie, the difference between those who would do better if given alteplase and those who would do worse) was 55 patients per 1000 treated (95% confidence interval, 13-91; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with intravenous alteplase initiated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset increases the chance of achieving an improved level of function for all patients across the age spectrum, including the over 80s and across all severities of stroke studied (top versus bottom fifth means: 22 versus 4); the earlier that treatment is initiated, the greater the benefit.

Fibrinolysis or primary PCI in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether prehospital fibrinolysis, coupled with timely coronary angiography, provides a clinical outcome similar to that with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) early after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS: Among 1892 patients with STEMI who presented within 3 hours after symptom onset and who were unable to undergo primary PCI within 1 hour, patients were randomly assigned to undergo either primary PCI or fibrinolytic therapy with bolus tenecteplase (amended to half dose in patients ≥75 years of age), clopidogrel, and enoxaparin before transport to a PCI-capable hospital. Emergency coronary angiography was performed if fibrinolysis failed; otherwise, angiography was performed 6 to 24 hours after randomization. The primary end point was a composite of death, shock, congestive heart failure, or reinfarction up to 30 days. RESULTS: The primary end point occurred in 116 of 939 patients (12.4%) in the fibrinolysis group and in 135 of 943 patients (14.3%) in the primary PCI group (relative risk in the fibrinolysis group, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 1.09; P=0.21). Emergency angiography was required in 36.3% of patients in the fibrinolysis group, whereas the remainder of patients underwent angiography at a median of 17 hours after randomization. More intracranial hemorrhages occurred in the fibrinolysis group than in the primary PCI group (1.0% vs. 0.2%, P=0.04; after protocol amendment, 0.5% vs. 0.3%, P=0.45). The rates of nonintracranial bleeding were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prehospital fibrinolysis with timely coronary angiography resulted in effective reperfusion in patients with early STEMI who could not undergo primary PCI within 1 hour after the first medical contact. However, fibrinolysis was associated with a slightly increased risk of intracranial bleeding. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00623623.).

ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction patients randomized to a pharmaco-invasive strategy or primary percutaneous coronary intervention: Strategic Reperfusion Early After Myocardial Infarction (STREAM) 1-year mortality follow-up.

BACKGROUND: In the Strategic Reperfusion Early After Myocardial Infarction (STREAM) trial, a pharmaco-invasive (PI) strategy was compared with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) in ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction patients presenting within 3 hours after symptom onset but unable to undergo pPCI within 1 hour. At 30 days, the PI approach was associated with a nominally but nonstatistically significant lower incidence of the composite primary end point of death, shock, congestive heart failure, and reinfarction when compared with pPCI. The aim of the present study was to determine the effect of these strategies on 1-year mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Vital status at 1 year was available in 936 of 944 (99.2%) and 941 of 948 (99.3%) patients in the PI and pPCI arm, respectively. At 1 year, all-cause mortality rates (6.7% versus 5.9%) were similar for PI and pPCI-treated patients (P=0.49; risk ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.62). Cardiac mortality rates were similar as well (4.0% versus 4.1%, P=0.93; risk ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.54). Overall, only 34 patients died between day 30 and 1 year, 20 in the PI arm and 14 in the pPCI arm, of whom 20 died of noncardiac reasons (13 in the PI and 7 in the pPCI arm). There was no significant difference in 1-year all-cause mortality between the 2 groups among the prespecified key subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: At 1 year, mortality rates in the PI and pPCI arms were similar in ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction patients presenting within 3 hours after symptom onset and unable to undergo pPCI within 1 hour. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00623623.

Effect of treatment delay, age, and stroke severity on the effects of intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Alteplase is effective for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke but debate continues about its use after longer times since stroke onset, in older patients, and among patients who have had the least or most severe strokes. We assessed the role of these factors in affecting good stroke outcome in patients given alteplase. METHODS: We did a pre-specified meta-analysis of individual patient data from 6756 patients in nine randomised trials comparing alteplase with placebo or open control. We included all completed randomised phase 3 trials of intravenous alteplase for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke for which data were available. Retrospective checks confirmed that no eligible trials had been omitted. We defined a good stroke outcome as no significant disability at 3-6 months, defined by a modified Rankin Score of 0 or 1. Additional outcomes included symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (defined by type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days and, separately, by the SITS-MOST definition of parenchymal type 2 haemorrhage within 36 h), fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days, and 90-day mortality. FINDINGS: Alteplase increased the odds of a good stroke outcome, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefit. Treatment within 3·0 h resulted in a good outcome for 259 (32·9%) of 787 patients who received alteplase versus 176 (23·1%) of 762 who received control (OR 1·75, 95% CI 1·35-2·27); delay of greater than 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h, resulted in good outcome for 485 (35·3%) of 1375 versus 432 (30·1%) of 1437 (OR 1·26, 95% CI 1·05-1·51); and delay of more than 4·5 h resulted in good outcome for 401 (32·6%) of 1229 versus 357 (30·6%) of 1166 (OR 1·15, 95% CI 0·95-1·40). Proportional treatment benefits were similar irrespective of age or stroke severity. Alteplase significantly increased the odds of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage definition 231 [6·8%] of 3391 vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365, OR 5·55, 95% CI 4·01-7·70, p<0·0001; SITS-MOST definition 124 [3·7%] vs 19 [0·6%], OR 6·67, 95% CI 4·11-10·84, p<0·0001) and of fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days (91 [2·7%] vs 13 [0·4%]; OR 7·14, 95% CI 3·98-12·79, p<0·0001). The relative increase in fatal intracranial haemorrhage from alteplase was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk attributable to alteplase was bigger among patients who had more severe strokes. There was no excess in other early causes of death and no significant effect on later causes of death. Consequently, mortality at 90 days was 608 (17·9%) in the alteplase group versus 556 (16·5%) in the control group (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·99-1·25, p=0·07). Taken together, therefore, despite an average absolute increased risk of early death from intracranial haemorrhage of about 2%, by 3-6 months this risk was offset by an average absolute increase in disability-free survival of about 10% for patients treated within 3·0 h and about 5% for patients treated after 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h. INTERPRETATION: Irrespective of age or stroke severity, and despite an increased risk of fatal intracranial haemorrhage during the first few days after treatment, alteplase significantly improves the overall odds of a good stroke outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of stroke onset, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefits. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh.

Reduced dose tenecteplase and outcomes in elderly ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients: Insights from the STrategic Reperfusion Early After Myocardial infarction trial.

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have worse outcomes and a greater risk of intracranial bleeding than nonelderly patients. Baseline characteristics, clinical outcomes, and the relationship of the tenecteplase (TNK) dose reduction to the efficacy, safety, and electrocardiographic indicators of reperfusion efficacy were evaluated in STEMI patients ≥75 years. METHODS: The STREAM trial evaluated early presenting STEMI patients who could not undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention within 1 hour of first medical contact. Because of excess intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients ≥75 years, the dose of TNK was reduced by 50%. RESULTS: Before dose amendment, there were 3 (7.1%) of 42 elderly patients with ICH; 2 of these were fatal, whereas no ICH occurred in the 93 elderly patients who received half-dose TNK postamendment. The median extent of ST-segment elevation resolution (≥50%) and proportion of patients with ≥2 mm in the electrocardiogram lead with greatest ST-segment elevation was comparable in elderly patients preamendment and postamendment (63.2% vs 56.0% and 43.6% vs 40.0%, respectively). Patients requiring rescue coronary intervention after TNK was also similar (42.9% vs 44.1%). The primary composite end point (30-day all-cause death, cardiogenic shock, congestive heart failure, and reinfarction) was 31.0% before versus 24.7% postamendment. CONCLUSIONS: Our data, from a modest-sized population of elderly STEMI patients, indicate that half-dose TNK reduces the likelihood of ICH without compromising reperfusion efficacy. These observations are hypothesis generating and warrant further confirmation in randomized clinical trials in the elderly.

Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics of a randomized, placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trial of empagliflozin (EMPA-REG OUTCOME™).

BACKGROUND: Evidence concerning the importance of glucose lowering in the prevention of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes remains controversial. Given the multi-faceted pathogenesis of atherosclerosis in diabetes, it is likely that any intervention to mitigate this risk must address CV risk factors beyond glycemia alone. The SGLT-2 inhibitor empagliflozin improves glucose control, body weight and blood pressure when used as monotherapy or add-on to other antihyperglycemic agents in patients with type 2 diabetes. The aim of the ongoing EMPA-REG OUTCOME™ trial is to determine the long-term CV safety of empagliflozin, as well as investigating potential benefits on macro-/microvascular outcomes. METHODS: Patients who were drug-naïve (HbA1c ≥7.0% and ≤9.0%), or on background glucose-lowering therapy (HbA1c ≥7.0% and ≤10.0%), and were at high risk of CV events, were randomized (1:1:1) and treated with empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo (double blind, double dummy) superimposed upon the standard of care. The primary outcome is time to first occurrence of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke. CV events will be prospectively adjudicated by an independent Clinical Events Committee. The trial will continue until ≥691 confirmed primary outcome events have occurred, providing a power of 90% to yield an upper limit of the adjusted 95% CI for a hazard ratio of <1.3 with a one-sided α of 0.025, assuming equal risks between placebo and empagliflozin (both doses pooled). Hierarchical testing for superiority will follow for the primary outcome and key secondary outcomes (time to first occurrence of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or hospitalization for unstable angina pectoris) where non-inferiority is achieved. RESULTS: Between Sept 2010 and April 2013, 592 clinical sites randomized and treated 7034 patients (41% from Europe, 20% from North America, and 19% from Asia). At baseline, the mean age was 63 ± 9 years, BMI 30.6 ± 5.3 kg/m2, HbA1c 8.1 ± 0.8%, and eGFR 74 ± 21 ml/min/1.73 m2. The study is expected to report in 2015. DISCUSSION: EMPA-REG OUTCOME™ will determine the CV safety of empagliflozin in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and high CV risk, with the potential to show cardioprotection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01131676.

Thrombolysis in stroke despite contraindications or warnings?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase is approved for acute ischemic stroke, but its use is limited by numerous contraindications and warnings arising from trial selection criteria or expert opinions. We examined outcomes from alteplase-treated versus untreated patients, registered in a trials archive, according to presence or absence of specified contraindications and warnings. METHODS: We analyzed 90-day modified Rankin Scale across the whole distribution of scores using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test, with adjustment for age and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Score, followed by proportional odds logistic regression analysis to estimate the odds ratios for preferred outcome. RESULTS: We used data from 9613 ischemic stroke patients of whom 2755 were treated with thrombolysis. Adjusted odds ratios showed a broad trend of more favorable 3-month outcome associated with alteplase treatment versus no treatment in various subgroups of patients with contraindications and warnings; for example, 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.70) in patients aged >80 (n=1805), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.03-2.18) in patients with combined history of prior stroke and diabetes mellitus (n=672), 1.42 (95% CI, 1.19-1.70) in patients on prior single antiplatelet agent (n=1626), 2.20 (95% CI, 1.12-4.32) in patients on oral anticoagulation, and International Normalized Ratio≤1.7 (n=157), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.15-1.97) in patients with baseline glucose >180 (n=879), and 1.57 (95% CI, 1.12-2.18) in patients with pretreatment National Institutes of Health Stroke Score >22 (n=620). CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive retrospective analysis of various contraindications and warnings provides reassurance about benefits and risks of intravenous alteplase treatment in common clinical situations.

Time to treatment with intravenous alteplase and outcome in stroke: an updated pooled analysis of ECASS, ATLANTIS, NINDS, and EPITHET trials.

BACKGROUND: Early administration of intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) after ischaemic stroke improves outcome. Previous analysis of combined data from individual patients suggested potential benefit beyond 3 h from stroke onset. We re-examined the effect of time to treatment with intravenous rt-PA (alteplase) on therapeutic benefit and clinical risk by adding recent trial data to the analysis. METHODS: We added data from ECASS III (821 patients) and EPITHET (100 patients) to a pool of common data elements from six other trials of alteplase for acute stroke (2775 patients). We used multivariate logistic regression to assess the relation of stroke onset to start of treatment (OTT) with treatment on favourable 3-month outcome (defined as modified Rankin score 0-1), mortality, and occurrence and outcome of clinically relevant parenchymal haemorrhage. The presence of an arterial occlusion was inferred from the patient's symptoms and absence of haemorrhage or other causes of ischaemic stroke. Vascular imaging was not a requirement in the trials. All patients with confirmed OTT within 360 min were included in the analysis. FINDINGS: Treatment was started within 360 min of stroke onset in 3670 patients randomly allocated to alteplase (n=1850) or to placebo (n=1820). Odds of a favourable 3-month outcome increased as OTT decreased (p=0.0269) and no benefit of alteplase treatment was seen after around 270 min. Adjusted odds of a favourable 3-month outcome were 2.55 (95% CI 1.44-4.52) for 0-90 min, 1.64 (1.12-2.40) for 91-180 min, 1.34 (1.06-1.68) for 181-270 min, and 1.22 (0.92-1.61) for 271-360 min in favour of the alteplase group. Large parenchymal haemorrhage was seen in 96 (5.2%) of 1850 patients assigned to alteplase and 18 (1.0%) of 1820 controls, with no clear relation to OTT (p=0.4140). Adjusted odds of mortality increased with OTT (p=0.0444) and were 0.78 (0.41-1.48) for 0-90 min, 1.13 (0.70-1.82) for 91-180 min, 1.22 (0.87-1.71) for 181-270 min, and 1.49 (1.00-2.21) for 271-360 min. INTERPRETATION: Patients with ischaemic stroke selected by clinical symptoms and CT benefit from intravenous alteplase when treated up to 4.5 h. To increase benefit to a maximum, every effort should be taken to shorten delay in initiation of treatment. Beyond 4.5 h, risk might outweigh benefit. FUNDING: None.

Thrombolysis during resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 70% of persons who have an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest have underlying acute myocardial infarction or pulmonary embolism. Therefore, thrombolysis during cardiopulmonary resuscitation may improve survival. METHODS: In a double-blind, multicenter trial, we randomly assigned adult patients with witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest to receive tenecteplase or placebo during cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Adjunctive heparin or aspirin was not used. The primary end point was 30-day survival; the secondary end points were hospital admission, return of spontaneous circulation, 24-hour survival, survival to hospital discharge, and neurologic outcome. RESULTS: After blinded review of data from the first 443 patients, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of enrollment of asystolic patients because of low survival, and the protocol was amended. Subsequently, the trial was terminated prematurely for futility after enrolling a total of 1050 patients. Tenecteplase was administered to 525 patients and placebo to 525 patients; the two treatment groups had similar clinical profiles. We did not detect any significant differences between tenecteplase and placebo in the primary end point of 30-day survival (14.7% vs. 17.0%; P=0.36; relative risk, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 1.15) or in the secondary end points of hospital admission (53.5% vs. 55.0%, P=0.67), return of spontaneous circulation (55.0% vs. 54.6%, P=0.96), 24-hour survival (30.6% vs. 33.3%, P=0.39), survival to hospital discharge (15.1% vs. 17.5%, P=0.33), or neurologic outcome (P=0.69). There were more intracranial hemorrhages in the tenecteplase group. CONCLUSIONS: When tenecteplase was used without adjunctive antithrombotic therapy during advanced life support for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, we did not detect an improvement in outcome, in comparison with placebo. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00157261.)

Thrombolysis with alteplase 3 to 4.5 hours after acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase is the only approved treatment for acute ischemic stroke, but its efficacy and safety when administered more than 3 hours after the onset of symptoms have not been established. We tested the efficacy and safety of alteplase administered between 3 and 4.5 hours after the onset of a stroke. METHODS: After exclusion of patients with a brain hemorrhage or major infarction, as detected on a computed tomographic scan, we randomly assigned patients with acute ischemic stroke in a 1:1 double-blind fashion to receive treatment with intravenous alteplase (0.9 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. The primary end point was disability at 90 days, dichotomized as a favorable outcome (a score of 0 or 1 on the modified Rankin scale, which has a range of 0 to 6, with 0 indicating no symptoms at all and 6 indicating death) or an unfavorable outcome (a score of 2 to 6 on the modified Rankin scale). The secondary end point was a global outcome analysis of four neurologic and disability scores combined. Safety end points included death, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, and other serious adverse events. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 821 patients in the study and randomly assigned 418 to the alteplase group and 403 to the placebo group. The median time for the administration of alteplase was 3 hours 59 minutes. More patients had a favorable outcome with alteplase than with placebo (52.4% vs. 45.2%; odds ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.76; P=0.04). In the global analysis, the outcome was also improved with alteplase as compared with placebo (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.65; P<0.05). The incidence of intracranial hemorrhage was higher with alteplase than with placebo (for any intracranial hemorrhage, 27.0% vs. 17.6%; P=0.001; for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, 2.4% vs. 0.2%; P=0.008). Mortality did not differ significantly between the alteplase and placebo groups (7.7% and 8.4%, respectively; P=0.68). There was no significant difference in the rate of other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: As compared with placebo, intravenous alteplase administered between 3 and 4.5 hours after the onset of symptoms significantly improved clinical outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke; alteplase was more frequently associated with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00153036.)

How is retrospective independent review influenced by investigator-introduced informative censoring: a quantitative approach.

A reliable determination of progression is of key importance in determining progression-free survival in oncology trials. An independent review of tumour assessments made by investigators is often implemented with the aim of reducing a possible bias. Often, the independent review is performed in a prespecified but retrospective fashion by reviewing a patient after all assessments have been performed. It has been discussed that this mechanism can lead to informative censoring with respect to independent review. This is caused by the fact that often no further assessments are available after the investigator has declared the patient to be progressive, possibly leading to a considerable amount of patients being judged progressive by the investigator and being censored by independent review. We introduce and investigate a model for the error in assessment with the aim of quantifying the bias in independent review. The model is based on single error probabilities at each assessment time-point that are independent from each other but dependent on the time to the true progression time-point. The bias introduced for the independent review is described and quantified. We show that the investigator assessments of progression can lead to less bias for progression-free survival than the results for independent review. Results show that a within-arm discordance rate is not necessarily correlated with the bias in independent review. Finally, we propose an approach for a sensitivity analysis that is a useful tool to sandwich the true underlying distribution by the results for independent review itself and the described sensitivity analysis.

Asymptotic properties of the two one-sided t-tests - new insights and the Schuirmann-constant.

The two one-sided t-tests (TOST) method is the most popular statistical equivalence test with many areas of application, i.e., in the pharmaceutical industry. Proper sample size calculation is needed in order to show equivalence with a certain power. Here, the crucial problem of choosing a suitable mean-difference in TOST sample size calculations is addressed. As an alternative concept, it is assumed that the mean-difference follows an a-priori distribution. Special interest is given to the uniform and some centered triangle a-priori distributions. Using a newly developed asymptotical theory a helpful analogy principle is found: every a-priori distribution corresponds to a point mean-difference, which we call its Schuirmann-constant. This constant does not depend on the standard deviation and aims to support the investigator in finding a well-considered mean-difference for proper sample size calculations in complex data situations. In addition to the proposed concept, we demonstrate that well-known sample size approximation formulas in the literature are in fact biased and state their unbiased corrections as well. Moreover, an R package is provided for a right away application of our newly developed concepts.

Validation Is Not Verification: Precise Terminology and Scientific Methods in Bioprocess Modeling.

Advanced statistical approaches and new modeling procedures for biopharmaceutical development and manufacturing have received increasing attention. With this forum article, we would like to highlight the need for a consistent terminology and the necessity for appropriate model validation strategies.