Unit cost repositories for health program planning and evaluation: a report on research in practice with lessons learned.

BACKGROUND: Most low- and middle-income countries have limited access to cost data that meets the needs of health policy-makers and researchers in health intervention areas including HIV, tuberculosis, and immunization. Unit cost repositories (UCRs)-searchable databases that systematically codify evidence from costing studies-have been developed to reduce the effort required to access and use existing costing information. These repositories serve as public resources and standard references, which can improve the consistency and quality of resource needs projections used for strategic planning and resource mobilization. UCRs also enable analysis of cost determinants and more informed imputation of missing cost data. This report examines our experiences developing and using seven UCRs (two global, five country-level) for cost projection and research purposes. DISCUSSION: We identify advances, challenges, enablers, and lessons learned that might inform future work related to UCRs. Our lessons learned include: (1) UCRs do not replace the need for costing expertise; (2) tradeoffs are required between the degree of data complexity and the useability of the UCR; (3) streamlining data extraction makes populating the UCR with new data easier; (4) immediate reporting and planning needs often drive stakeholder interest in cost data; (5) developing and maintaining UCRs requires dedicated staff time; (6) matching decision-maker needs with appropriate cost data can be challenging; (7) UCRs must have data quality control systems; (8) data in UCRs can become obsolete; and (9) there is often a time lag between the identification of a cost and its inclusion in UCRs. CONCLUSIONS: UCRs have the potential to be a valuable public good if kept up-to-date with active quality control and adequate support available to end-users. Global UCR collaboration networks and greater control by local stakeholders over global UCRs may increase active, sustained use of global repositories and yield higher quality results for strategic planning and resource mobilization.

The state of costing research for HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

The past decade has seen a growing emphasis on the production of high-quality costing data to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of global health interventions. The need for such data is especially important for decision making and priority setting across HIV services from prevention and testing to treatment and care. To help address this critical need, the Global Health Cost Consortium was created in 2016, in part to conduct a systematic search and screening of the costing literature for HIV and TB interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The purpose of this portion of the remit was to compile, standardise, and make publicly available published cost data (peer-reviewed and gray) for public use. We limit our analysis to a review of the quantity and characteristics of published cost data from HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. First, we document the production of cost data over 25 years, including density over time, geography, publication venue, authorship and type of intervention. Second, we explore key methods and reporting for characteristics including urbanicity, platform type, ownership and scale. Although the volume of HIV costing data has increased substantially on the continent, cost reporting is lacking across several dimensions. We find a dearth of cost estimates from HIV interventions in west Africa, as well as inconsistent reporting of key dimensions of cost including platform type, ownership and urbanicity. Further, we find clear evidence of a need for renewed focus on the consistent reporting of scale by authors of costing and cost-effectiveness analyses.

Developing the Global Health Cost Consortium Unit Cost Study Repository for HIV and TB: methodology and lessons learned.

Consistently defined, accurate, and easily accessible cost data are a valuable resource to inform efficiency analyses, budget preparation, and sustainability planning in global health. The Global Health Cost Consortium (GHCC) designed the Unit Cost Study Repository (UCSR) to be a resource for standardised HIV and TB intervention cost data displayed by key characteristics such as intervention type, country, and target population. To develop the UCSR, the GHCC defined a typology of interventions for each disease; aligned interventions according to the standardised principles, methods, and cost and activity categories from the GHCC Reference Case for Estimating the Costs of Global Health Services and Interventions; completed a systematic literature review; conducted extensive data extraction; performed quality assurance; grappled with complex methodological issues such as the proper approach to the inflation and conversion of costs; developed and implemented a study quality rating system; and designed a web-based user interface that flexibly displays large amounts of data in a user-friendly way. Key lessons learned from the extraction process include the importance of assessing the multiple uses of extracted data; the critical role of standardising definitions (particularly units of measurement); using appropriate classifications of interventions and components of costs; the efficiency derived from programming data checks; and the necessity of extraction quality monitoring by senior analysts. For the web interface, lessons were: understanding the target audiences, including consulting them regarding critical characteristics; designing the display of data in "levels"; and incorporating alert and unique trait descriptions to further clarify differences in the data.

A meta-analysis approach for estimating average unit costs for ART using pooled facility-level primary data from African countries.

Objective: To estimate facility-level average cost for ART services and explore unit cost variations using pooled facility-level cost estimates from four HIV empirical cost studies conducted in five African countries .Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies reporting facility-level costs for ART programmes. We requested the underlying data and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. Subsequently, we estimated the annual cost per patient served and assessed the cost variation among facilities and other service delivery characteristics using descriptive statistics and meta-analysis. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($). Results: We obtained and standardised data from four studies across five African countries and 139 facilities. The weighted average cost per patient on ART was $251 (95% CI: 193-308). On average, 46% of the mean unit cost correspond to antiretroviral (ARVs) costs, 31% to personnel costs, 20% other recurrent costs, and 2% to capital costs. We observed a lot of variation in unit cost and scale levels between countries. We also observed a negative relationship between ART unit cost and the number of patients served in a year.Conclusion: Our approach allowed us to explore unit cost variation across contexts by pooling ART costs from multiple sources. Our research provides an example of how to estimate costs based on heterogeneous sources reconciling methodological differences across studies and contributes by giving an example on how to estimate costs based on heterogeneous sources of data. Also, our study provides additional information on costs for funders, policy-makers, and decision-makers in the process of designing or scaling-up HIV interventions.

Meta-analysis of average costs of HIV testing and counselling and voluntary medical male circumcision across thirteen countries.

Objective: Explore facility-level average costs per client of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in 13 countries.Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies that reported facility-level costs of HTC or VMMC programmes. We requested the primary data from authors and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. We then conducted descriptive statistics and a meta-analysis to assess the cost variation among facilities. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($).Results: We gathered data from 14 studies across 13 countries and 772 facilities (552 HTC, 220 VMMC). The weighted average unit cost per client served was $15 (95% CI 12, 18) for HTC and $59 (95% CI 45, 74) for VMMC. On average, 38% of the mean unit cost for HTC corresponded to recurrent costs, 56% to personnel costs, and 6% to capital costs. For VMMC, 41% of the average unit cost corresponded to recurrent costs, 55% to personnel costs, and 4% to capital costs. We observed unit cost variation within and between countries, and lower costs in higher scale categories in all interventions.

Lives Saved Tool (LiST) costing: a module to examine costs and prioritize interventions.

BACKGROUND: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require careful allocation of resources in order to achieve the highest impact. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) has been used widely to calculate the impact of maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions for program planning and multi-country estimation in several Lancet Series commissions. As use of the LiST model increases, many have expressed a desire to cost interventions within the model, in order to support budgeting and prioritization of interventions by countries. A limited LiST costing module was introduced several years ago, but with gaps in cost types. Updates to inputs have now been added to make the module fully functional for a range of uses. METHODS: This paper builds on previous work that developed an initial version of the LiST costing module to provide costs for MNCH interventions using an ingredients-based costing approach. Here, we update in 2016 the previous econometric estimates from 2013 with newly-available data and also include above-facility level costs such as program management. The updated econometric estimates inform percentages of intervention-level costs for some direct costs and indirect costs. These estimates add to existing values for direct cost requirements for items such as drugs and supplies and required provider time which were already available in LiST Costing. RESULTS: Results generated by the LiST costing module include costs for each intervention, as well as disaggregated costs by intervention including drug and supply costs, labor costs, other recurrent costs, capital costs, and above-service delivery costs. These results can be combined with mortality estimates to support prioritization of interventions by countries. CONCLUSIONS: The LiST costing module provides an option for countries to identify resource requirements for scaling up a maternal, neonatal, and child health program, and to examine the financial impact of different resource allocation strategies. It can be a useful tool for countries as they seek to identify the best investments for scarce resources. The purpose of the LiST model is to provide a tool to make resource allocation decisions in a strategic planning process through prioritizing interventions based on resulting impact on maternal and child mortality and morbidity.

Estimating the cost-savings associated with bundling maternal and child health interventions: a proposed methodology.

BACKGROUND: There is a pressing need to include cost data in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). This paper proposes a method that combines data from both the WHO CHOosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective (CHOICE) database and the OneHealth Tool (OHT) to develop unit costs for delivering child and maternal health services, both alone and bundled. METHODS: First, a translog cost function is estimated to calculate factor shares of personnel, consumables, other direct (variable or recurrent costs excluding personnel and consumables) and indirect (capital or investment) costs. Primary source facility level data from Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe are utilized, with separate analyses for hospitals and health centres. Second, the resulting other-direct and indirect factor shares are applied to country unit costs from the WHO CHOICE unit cost database to calculate those portions of unit cost. Third, the remainder of the costs is calculated using default data from the OHT. Fourth, we calculate the effect of bundling services by assuming that a LiST intervention visit takes an average of 20 minutes when delivered alone but only incremental time in addition to the basic visit when delivered in a bundle. RESULTS: Personnel costs account for the greatest share of costs for both hospitals and health centres at 50% and 38%, respectively. The percentages differ between hospitals and health centres for consumables (21% versus 17%), other direct (7.5% versus 6.75%), and indirect (22% versus 23%) costs. Combining the other-direct and indirect factor shares with the WHO CHOICE database and the other costs from OHT provides a comprehensive cost estimate of LiST interventions. Finally, the cost of six recommended antenatal care (ANC) interventions is $69.76 when delivered alone, but $61.18 when delivered as a bundle, a savings of $8.58 (12.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This paper proposes a method for estimating a comprehensive cost of providing child and maternal health interventions by combining labor, consumables and drug costs from OHT with indirect and other-direct proportional costs from WHO CHOICE. In addition, we demonstrate the potential cost savings that can be achieved from bundling the delivery of essential antenatal care interventions rather than delivering the same interventions alone.

Examining the characteristics of social and behavior change communication intervention costs in low- and middle-income countries: A hedonic method approach.

Understanding the costs of health interventions is critical for generating budgets, planning and managing programs, and conducting economic evaluations to use when allocating scarce resources. Here, we utilize techniques from the hedonic pricing literature to estimate the characteristics of the costs of social and behavior change communication (SBCC) interventions, which aim to improve health-seeking behaviors and important intermediate determinants to behavior change. SBCC encompasses a wide range of interventions including mass media (e.g., radio, television), mid media (e.g., community announcements, live dramas), digital media (e.g., short message service/phone reminders, social media), interpersonal communication (e.g., individual or group counseling), and provider-based SBCC interventions focused on improving provider attitudes and provider-client communication. While studies have reported on the costs of specific SBCC interventions in low- and middle-income countries, little has been done to examine SBCC costs across multiple studies and interventions. We use compiled data across multiple SBCC intervention types, health areas, and low- and middle-income countries to explore the characteristics of the costs of SBCC interventions. Despite the wide variation seen in the unit cost data, we can explain between 63 and 97 percent of total variance and identify a statistically significant set of characteristics (e.g., health area) for media and interpersonal communication interventions. Intervention intensity is an important determinant for both media and interpersonal communication, with costs increasing as intervention intensity increases; other important characteristics for media interventions include intervention subtype, target population group, and country income as measured by per capita Gross National Income. Important characteristics for interpersonal communication interventions include health area, intervention subtype, target population group and geographic scope.

Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS.

Substantial changes are needed to achieve a more targeted and strategic approach to investment in the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic that will yield long-term dividends. Until now, advocacy for resources has been done on the basis of a commodity approach that encouraged scaling up of numerous strategies in parallel, irrespective of their relative effects. We propose a strategic investment framework that is intended to support better management of national and international HIV/AIDS responses than exists with the present system. Our framework incorporates major efficiency gains through community mobilisation, synergies between programme elements, and benefits of the extension of antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission. It proposes three categories of investment, consisting of six basic programmatic activities, interventions that create an enabling environment to achieve maximum effectiveness, and programmatic efforts in other health and development sectors related to HIV/AIDS. The yearly cost of achievement of universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support by 2015 is estimated at no less than US$22 billion. Implementation of the new investment framework would avert 12·2 million new HIV infections and 7·4 million deaths from AIDS between 2011 and 2020 compared with continuation of present approaches, and result in 29·4 million life-years gained. The framework is cost effective at $1060 per life-year gained, and the additional investment proposed would be largely offset from savings in treatment costs alone.

Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization's considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region's HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs.

Financing of HIV/AIDS programme scale-up in low-income and middle-income countries, 2009-31.

As the global HIV/AIDS pandemic nears the end of its third decade, the challenges of efficient mobilisation of funds and management of resources are increasingly prominent. The aids2031 project modelled long-term funding needs for HIV/AIDS in developing countries with a range of scenarios and substantial variation in costs: ranging from US$397 to $722 billion globally between 2009 and 2031, depending on policy choices adopted by governments and donors. We examine what these figures mean for individual developing countries, and estimate the proportion of HIV/AIDS funding that they and donors will provide. Scenarios for expanded HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment, and mitigation were analysed for 15 representative countries. We suggest that countries will move in increasingly divergent directions over the next 20 years; middle-income countries with a low burden of HIV/AIDS will gradually be able to take on the modest costs of their HIV/AIDS response, whereas low-income countries with a high burden of disease will remain reliant upon external support for their rapidly expanding costs. A small but important group of middle-income countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS (eg, South Africa) form a third category, in which rapid scale-up in the short term, matched by outside funds, could be phased down within 10 years assuming strategic investments are made for prevention and efficiency gains are made in treatment.

Estimating the Cost of the Design, Production, and Dissemination of Social Media Videos for Social and Behavioral Change: Evidence From Merci Mon Héros in Niger and Côte d'Ivoire.

Merci Mon Héros (MMH) is a youth-led multi-media campaign in Francophone West Africa seeking to improve reproductive health and family planning outcomes using radio, television, social media, and community events. One component to this project is the development of a series of youth-driven videos created to encourage both youth and adults to break taboos by talking to each other about reproductive health and family planning. A costing study was conducted to capture costs associated with the design, production, and dissemination of 11 MMH videos (in French) on social media in Côte d'Ivoire and Niger. The total costs to design, produce and disseminate 11 of the campaign videos for MMH in both Côte d'Ivoire and Niger were $44,981. Unit costs were calculated using three different denominators, resulting in average unit costs of $0.16 per reach, $1.29 per engagement, and $4.27 per video view. These findings can be useful for future studies of SBC interventions using social media for framing the analysis and selecting the appropriate metrics for the denominator, as well as for budgeting and planning SBC programs using social media.

Moving away from the "unit cost". Predicting country-specific average cost curves of VMMC services accounting for variations in service delivery platforms in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: One critical element to optimize funding decisions involves the cost and efficiency implications of implementing alternative program components and configurations. Program planners, policy makers and funders alike are in need of relevant, strategic data and analyses to help them plan and implement effective and efficient programs. Contrary to widely accepted conceptions in both policy and academic arenas, average costs per service (so-called "unit costs") vary considerably across implementation settings and facilities. The objective of this work is twofold: 1) to estimate the variation of VMMC unit costs across service delivery platforms (SDP) in Sub-Saharan countries, and 2) to develop and validate a strategy to extrapolate unit costs to settings for which no data exists. METHODS: We identified high-quality VMMC cost studies through a literature review. Authors were contacted to request the facility-level datasets (primary data) underlying their results. We standardized the disparate datasets into an aggregated database which included 228 facilities in eight countries. We estimated multivariate models to assess the correlation between VMMC unit costs and scale, while simultaneously accounting for the influence of the SDP (which we defined as all possible combinations of type of facility, ownership, urbanicity, and country), on the unit cost variation. We defined SDP as any combination of such four characteristics. Finally, we extrapolated VMMC unit costs for all SDPs in 13 countries, including those not contained in our dataset. RESULTS: The average unit cost was 73 USD (IQR: 28.3, 100.7). South Africa showed the highest within-country cost variation, as well as the highest mean unit cost (135 USD). Uganda and Namibia had minimal within-country cost variation, and Uganda had the lowest mean VMMC unit cost (22 USD). Our results showed evidence consistent with economies of scale. Private ownership and Hospitals were significant determinants of higher unit costs. By identifying key cost drivers, including country- and facility-level characteristics, as well as the effects of scale we developed econometric models to estimate unit cost curves for VMMC services in a variety of clinical and geographical settings. CONCLUSION: While our study did not produce new empirical data, our results did increase by a tenfold the availability of unit costs estimates for 128 SDPs in 14 priority countries for VMMC. It is to our knowledge, the most comprehensive analysis of VMMC unit costs to date. Furthermore, we provide a proof of concept of the ability to generate predictive cost estimates for settings where empirical data does not exist.

The past, present and future of HIV, AIDS and resource allocation.

BACKGROUND: How should HIV and AIDS resources be allocated to achieve the greatest possible impact? This paper begins with a theoretical discussion of this issue, describing the key elements of an "evidence-based allocation strategy". While it is noted that the quality of epidemiological and economic data remains inadequate to define such an optimal strategy, there do exist tools and research which can lead countries in a way that they can make allocation decisions. Furthermore, there are clear indications that most countries are not allocating their HIV and AIDS resources in a way which is likely to achieve the greatest possible impact. For example, it is noted that neighboring countries, even when they have a similar prevalence of HIV, nonetheless often allocate their resources in radically different ways. These differing allocation patterns appear to be attributable to a number of different issues, including a lack of data, contradictory results in existing data, a need for overemphasizing a multisectoral response, a lack of political will, a general inefficiency in the use of resources when they do get allocated, poor planning and a lack of control over the way resources get allocated. METHODS: There are a number of tools currently available which can improve the resource-allocation process. Tools such as the Resource Needs Model (RNM) can provide policymakers with a clearer idea of resource requirements, whereas other tools such as Goals and the Allocation by Cost-Effectiveness (ABCE) models can provide countries with a clearer vision of how they might reallocate funds. RESULTS: Examples from nine different countries provide information about how policymakers are trying to make their resource-allocation strategies more "evidence based". By identifying the challenges and successes of these nine countries in making more informed allocation decisions, it is hoped that future resource-allocation decisions for all countries can be improved. CONCLUSION: We discuss the future of resource allocation, noting the types of additional data which will be required and the improvements in existing tools which could be made.

Correction: What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154893.].

Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

BACKGROUND: Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making. DESCRIPTION: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools that have been used to inform health policy. Their use underpinned Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) scale-up for HIV prevention in southern and eastern Africa. Both examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up, with DMPPT used initially in global advocacy and DMPPT 2 then providing VMMC coverage estimates by client age and subnational region for use in country-specific program planning. Their application involved three essential steps: identifying and engaging a wide array of stakeholders from the outset, reaching consensus on key assumptions and analysis plans, and convening data validation meetings with critical stakeholders. The subsequent DMPPT 2 Online is a user-friendly tool for in-country modeling analyses and continuous program planning and monitoring. LESSONS LEARNED: Through three iterations of the DMPPT applied to VMMC, a comprehensive framework with six steps was identified: (1) identify a champion, (2) engage stakeholders early and often, (3) encourage consensus, (4) customize analyses, (5), build capacity, and (6) establish a plan for sustainability. This framework could be successfully adapted to other HIV prevention programs to translate modeling results to policy and programming. CONCLUSIONS: Models can be used to mobilize support, strategically plan, and monitor key programmatic elements, but they can also help inform policy environments in which programs are conceptualized and implemented to achieve results. The ways in which modeling has informed VMMC programs and policy may be applicable to an array of other health interventions.

Twenty Years Of Antiretroviral Therapy For People Living With HIV: Global Costs, Health Achievements, Economic Benefits.

Since the introduction of azidothymidine in 1987, significant improvements in treatment for people living with HIV have yielded substantial improvements in global health as a result of the unique benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART averted 9.5 million deaths worldwide in 1995-2015, with global economic benefits of $1.05 trillion. For every $1 spent on ART, $3.50 in benefits accrued globally. If treatment scale-up achieves the global 90-90-90 targets of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, a total of 34.9 million deaths are projected to be averted between 1995 and 2030. Approximately 40.2 million new HIV infections could also be averted by ART, and economic gains could reach $4.02 trillion in 2030. Having provided ART to 19.5 million people represents a major human achievement. However, 15.2 million infected people are currently not receiving treatment, which represents a significant lost opportunity. Further treatment scale-up could yield even greater health and economic benefits.

Correction: What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154893.].

What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually-far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030.

Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS National Strategic Plan for Mozambique, 2015-2019--Projections with the Spectrum/Goals Model.

INTRODUCTION: Mozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015-2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP). METHODS: The HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments. RESULTS: Implementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for 'Current targets', or US$ 495 million in 2019 for 'Accelerated scale-up'. The 'Accelerated scale-up' would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics). CONCLUSION: The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS' 'Fast track' targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.