Quantifying Proximity, Confinement, and Interventions in Disease Outbreaks: A Decision Support Framework for Air-Transported Pathogens.

The inability to communicate how infectious diseases are transmitted in human environments has triggered avoidance of interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. We define a metric, Effective ReBreathed Volume (ERBV), that encapsulates how infectious pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, transport in air. ERBV separates environmental transport from other factors in the chain of infection, allowing quantitative comparisons among situations. Particle size affects transport, removal onto surfaces, and elimination by mitigation measures, so ERBV is presented for a range of exhaled particle diameters: 1, 10, and 100 µm. Pathogen transport depends on both proximity and confinement. If interpersonal distancing of 2 m is maintained, then confinement, not proximity, dominates rebreathing after 10-15 min in enclosed spaces for all but 100 µm particles. We analyze strategies to reduce this confinement effect. Ventilation and filtration reduce person-to-person transport of 1 µm particles (ERBV1) by 13-85% in residential and office situations. Deposition to surfaces competes with intentional removal for 10 and 100 µm particles, so the same interventions reduce ERBV10 by only 3-50%, and ERBV100 is unaffected. Prior knowledge of size-dependent ERBV would help identify transmission modes and effective interventions. This framework supports mitigation decisions in emerging situations, even before other infectious parameters are known.

Emissions Measurements from Household Solid Fuel Use in Haryana, India: Implications for Climate and Health Co-benefits.

A large concern with estimates of climate and health co-benefits of "clean" cookstoves from controlled emissions testing is whether results represent what actually happens in real homes during normal use. A growing body of evidence indicates that in-field emissions during daily cooking activities differ substantially from values obtained in laboratories, with correspondingly different estimates of co-benefits. We report PM2.5 emission factors from uncontrolled cooking (n = 7) and minimally controlled cooking tests (n = 51) using traditional chulha and angithi stoves in village kitchens in Haryana, India. Minimally controlled cooking tests (n = 13) in a village kitchen with mixed dung and brushwood fuels were representative of uncontrolled field tests for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), organic and elemental carbon (p > 0.5), but were substantially higher than previously published water boiling tests using dung or wood. When the fraction of nonrenewable biomass harvesting, elemental, and organic particulate emissions and modeled estimates of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are included in 100 year global warming commitments (GWC100), the chulha had a net cooling impact using mixed fuels typical of the region. Correlation between PM2.5 emission factors and GWC (R2 = 0.99) implies these stoves are climate neutral for primary PM2.5 emissions of 8.8 ± 0.7 and 9.8 ± 0.9 g PM2.5/kg dry fuel for GWC20 and GWC100, respectively, which is close to the mean for biomass stoves in global emission inventories.

Field Emission Measurements of Solid Fuel Stoves in Yunnan, China Demonstrate Dominant Causes of Uncertainty in Household Emission Inventories.

Emission factors of carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM2.5), organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC), as well as combustion efficiency and particle optical properties were measured during 37 uncontrolled cooking tests of residential stoves in Yunnan Province, China. Fuel mixtures included coal, woody biomass, and agricultural waste. Compared to previously published emission measurements of similar stoves, these measurements have higher CO and PM2.5 emission factors. Real-time data show two distinct burn phases: a devolatilization phase after fuel addition with high PM2.5 emissions and a solid-fuel combustion phase with low PM2.5 emissions. The average emission factors depend on the relative contributions of these phases, which are affected by the services provided by the stoves. Differences in stove and fuel characteristics that are not represented in emission inventories affect the variability of emission factors much more than do the type of solid fuel or stove. In developing inventories with highly variable sources such as residential solid-fuel combustion, we suggest that (1) all fuels should be accounted for, not just the primary fuel; (2) the household service provided should be emphasized rather than specific combinations of solid fuels and devices; and (3) the devolatilization phase should be explicitly measured and represented.

Emission Measurements from Traditional Biomass Cookstoves in South Asia and Tibet.

Traditional biomass stoves are a major global contributor to emissions that impact climate change and health. This paper reports emission factors of particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), organic carbon (OC), black carbon (EC), optical absorption, and scattering from 46 South Asian, 48 Tibetan, and 4 Ugandan stoves. These measurements plus a literature review provide insight into the robustness of emission factors used in emission inventories. Tibetan dung stoves produced high average PM2.5 emission factors (23 and 43 gkg-1 for chimney and open stoves) with low average EC (0.3 and 0.7 gkg-1, respectively). Comparatively, PM2.5 from South Asian stoves (7 gkg-1) was in the range of previous measurements and near values used in inventories. EC emission factors varied between stoves and fuels ( p < 0.001), without corresponding differences in absorption; stoves that produced little EC, produced enough brown carbon to have about the same absorption as stoves with high EC emissions. In Tibetan dung stoves, for example, OC contributed over 20% of the absorption. Overall, EC emission factors were not correlated with PM2.5 and were constrained to low values, relative to PM2.5, over a wide range of combustion conditions. The average measured EC emission factor (1 gkg-1), was near current inventory estimates.

Black Carbon Emissions from Associated Natural Gas Flaring.

Approximately 150 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas is flared and vented in the world annually, emitting greenhouse gases and other pollutants with no energy benefit. About 7 BCM per year is flared in the United States, and half is from North Dakota alone. There are few emission measurements from associated gas flares and limited black carbon (BC) emission factors have been previously reported from the field. Emission plumes from 26 individual flares in the Bakken formation in North Dakota were sampled. Methane, carbon dioxide, and BC were measured simultaneously, allowing the calculation of BC mass emission factors using the carbon balance method. Particle optical absorption was measured using a three-wavelength particle soot absorption photometer (PSAP) and BC particle number and mass concentrations were measured with a single particle soot photometer. The BC emission factors varied over 2 orders of magnitude, with an average and uncertainty range of 0.14 ± 0.12 g/kg hydrocarbons in associated gas and a median of 0.07 g/kg which represents a lower bound on these measurements. An estimation of the BC emission factor derived from PSAP absorption provides an upper bound at 3.1 g/kg. These results are lower than previous estimations and laboratory measurements. The BC mass absorption cross section was 16 ± 12 m(2)/g BC at 530 nm. The average absorption Ångström exponent was 1.2 ± 0.8, suggesting that most of the light absorbing aerosol measured was black carbon and the contribution of light absorbing organic carbon was small.

Emission Projections for Long-Haul Freight Trucks and Rail in the United States through 2050.

This work develops an integrated model approach for estimating emissions from long-haul freight truck and rail transport in the United States between 2010 and 2050. We connect models of macroeconomic activity, freight demand by commodity, transportation networks, and emission technology to represent different pathways of future freight emissions. Emissions of particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total hydrocarbon (THC) decrease by 60%-70% from 2010 to 2030, as older vehicles built to less-stringent emission standards retire. Climate policy, in the form of carbon tax that increases apparent fuel prices, causes a shift from truck to rail, resulting in a 30% reduction in fuel consumption and a 10%-28% reduction in pollutant emissions by 2050, if rail capacity is sufficient. Eliminating high-emitting conditions in the truck fleet affects air pollutants by 20% to 65%; although these estimates are highly uncertain, they indicate the importance of durability in vehicle engines and emission control systems. Future infrastructure investment will be required both to meet transport demand and to enable actions that reduce emissions of air and climate pollutants. By driving the integrated model framework with two macroeconomic scenarios, we show that the effect of carbon tax on air pollution is robust regardless of growth levels.

Light absorption properties and radiative effects of primary organic aerosol emissions.

Organic aerosols (OAs) in the atmosphere affect Earth's energy budget by not only scattering but also absorbing solar radiation due to the presence of the so-called "brown carbon" (BrC) component. However, the absorptivities of OAs are not represented or are poorly represented in current climate and chemical transport models. In this study, we provide a method to constrain the BrC absorptivity at the emission inventory level using recent laboratory and field observations. We review available measurements of the light-absorbing primary OA (POA), and quantify the wavelength-dependent imaginary refractive indices (kOA, the fundamental optical parameter determining the particle's absorptivity) and their uncertainties for the bulk POA emitted from biomass/biofuel, lignite, propane, and oil combustion sources. In particular, we parametrize the kOA of biomass/biofuel combustion sources as a function of the black carbon (BC)-to-OA ratio, indicating that the absorptive properties of POA depend strongly on burning conditions. The derived fuel-type-based kOA profiles are incorporated into a global carbonaceous aerosol emission inventory, and the integrated kOA values of sectoral and total POA emissions are presented. Results of a simple radiative transfer model show that the POA absorptivity warms the atmosphere significantly and leads to ∼27% reduction in the amount of the net global average POA cooling compared to results from the nonabsorbing assumption.

Effectiveness of mitigation measures in reducing future primary particulate matter emissions from on-road vehicle exhaust.

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa.

Emissions from South Asian brick production.

Thirteen South Asian brick kilns were tested to quantify aerosol and gaseous pollutant emissions. Particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), and optical scattering and absorption measurements in the exhaust of six kiln technologies demonstrate differences in overall emission profiles and relative climate warming resulting from kiln design and fuel choice. Emission factors differed between kiln types, in some cases by an order of magnitude. The kilns currently dominating the sector had the highest emission factors of PM2.5 and light absorbing carbon, while improved Vertical Shaft and Tunnel kilns were lower emitters. An improved version of the most common technology in the region, the zig-zag kiln, was among the lowest emitting kilns in PM2.5, CO, and light absorbing carbon. Emission factors measured here are lower than those currently used in emission inventories as inputs to global climate models; 85% lower (PM2.5) and 35% lower for elemental carbon (EC) for the most common kiln in the region, yet the ratio of EC to total carbon was higher than previously estimated (0.96 compared to 0.47). Total annual estimated emissions from the brick industry are 120 Tg CO2, 2.5 Tg CO, 0.19 Tg PM2.5, and 0.12 Tg EC.

Indoor Air Sources of Outdoor Air Pollution: Health Consequences, Policy, and Recommendations: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report.

Indoor sources of air pollution worsen indoor and outdoor air quality. Thus, identifying and reducing indoor pollutant sources would decrease both indoor and outdoor air pollution, benefit public health, and help address the climate crisis. As outdoor sources come under regulatory control, unregulated indoor sources become a rising percentage of the problem. This American Thoracic Society workshop was convened in 2022 to evaluate this increasing proportion of indoor contributions to outdoor air quality. The workshop was conducted by physicians and scientists, including atmospheric and aerosol scientists, environmental engineers, toxicologists, epidemiologists, regulatory policy experts, and pediatric and adult pulmonologists. Presentations and discussion sessions were centered on 1) the generation and migration of pollutants from indoors to outdoors, 2) the sources and circumstances representing the greatest threat, and 3) effective remedies to reduce the health burden of indoor sources of air pollution. The scope of the workshop was residential and commercial sources of indoor air pollution in the United States. Topics included wood burning, natural gas, cooking, evaporative volatile organic compounds, source apportionment, and regulatory policy. The workshop concluded that indoor sources of air pollution are significant contributors to outdoor air quality and that source control and filtration are the most effective measures to reduce indoor contributions to outdoor air. Interventions should prioritize environmental justice: Households of lower socioeconomic status have higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants from both indoor and outdoor sources. We identify research priorities, potential health benefits, and mitigation actions to consider (e.g., switching from natural gas to electric stoves and transitioning to scent-free consumer products). The workshop committee emphasizes the benefits of combustion-free homes and businesses and recommends economic, legislative, and education strategies aimed at achieving this goal.

Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Characterizing biofuel combustion with patterns of real-time emission data (PaRTED).

Emission properties and quantities from combustion sources can vary significantly during operation, and this characteristic variability is hidden in the traditional presentation of emission test averages. As a complement to the emission test averages, we introduce the notion of statistical pattern analysis to characterize temporal fluctuations in emissions, using cluster analysis and frequency plots. We demonstrate this approach by comparing emissions from traditional and improved wood-burning cookstoves under in-field conditions, and also to contrast laboratory and in-field cookstove performance. Compared with traditional cookstoves, improved cookstoves eliminate emissions that occur at low combustion efficiency. For cookstoves where the only improvement is an insulated combustion chamber, this change results in emission of more light-absorbing (black) particles. When a chimney is added, the stoves produce more black particles but also have reduced emission factors. Laboratory tests give different results than in-field tests, because they fail to reproduce a significant fraction of low-efficiency events, spikes in particulate matter (PM) emissions, and less-absorbing particles. These conditions should be isolated and replicated in future laboratory testing protocols to ensure that stove designs are relevant to in-use operation.

Household light makes global heat: high black carbon emissions from kerosene wick lamps.

Kerosene-fueled wick lamps used in millions of developing-country households are a significant but overlooked source of black carbon (BC) emissions. We present new laboratory and field measurements showing that 7-9% of kerosene consumed by widely used simple wick lamps is converted to carbonaceous particulate matter that is nearly pure BC. These high emission factors increase previous BC emission estimates from kerosene by 20-fold, to 270 Gg/year (90% uncertainty bounds: 110, 590 Gg/year). Aerosol climate forcing on atmosphere and snow from this source is estimated at 22 mW/m² (8, 48 mW/m²), or 7% of BC forcing by all other energy-related sources. Kerosene lamps have affordable alternatives that pose few clear adoption barriers and would provide immediate benefit to user welfare. The net effect on climate is definitively positive forcing as coemitted organic carbon is low. No other major BC source has such readily available alternatives, definitive climate forcing effects, and cobenefits. Replacement of kerosene-fueled wick lamps deserves strong consideration for programs that target short-lived climate forcers.

Earth, Wind, Fire, and Pollution: Aerosol Nutrient Sources and Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry.

A key Earth system science question is the role of atmospheric deposition in supplying vital nutrients to the phytoplankton that form the base of marine food webs. Industrial and vehicular pollution, wildfires, volcanoes, biogenic debris, and desert dust all carry nutrients within their plumes throughout the globe. In remote ocean ecosystems, aerosol deposition represents an essential new source of nutrients for primary production. The large spatiotemporal variability in aerosols from myriad sources combined with the differential responses of marine biota to changing fluxes makes it crucially important to understand where, when, and how much nutrients from the atmosphere enter marine ecosystems. This review brings together existing literature, experimental evidence of impacts, and new atmospheric nutrient observations that can be compared with atmospheric and ocean biogeochemistry modeling. We evaluate the contribution and spatiotemporal variability of nutrient-bearing aerosols from desert dust, wildfire, volcanic, and anthropogenic sources, including the organic component, deposition fluxes, and oceanic impacts.

All-time releases of mercury to the atmosphere from human activities.

Understanding the biogeochemical cycling of mercury is critical for explaining the presence of mercury in remote regions of the world, such as the Arctic and the Himalayas, as well as local concentrations. While we have good knowledge of present-day fluxes of mercury to the atmosphere, we have little knowledge of what emission levels were like in the past. Here we develop a trend of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere from 1850 to 2008-for which relatively complete data are available-and supplement that trend with an estimate of anthropogenic emissions prior to 1850. Global mercury emissions peaked in 1890 at 2600 Mg yr(-1), fell to 700-800 Mg yr(-1) in the interwar years, then rose steadily after 1950 to present-day levels of 2000 Mg yr(-1). Our estimate for total mercury emissions from human activities over all time is 350 Gg, of which 39% was emitted before 1850 and 61% after 1850. Using an eight-compartment global box-model of mercury biogeochemical cycling, we show that these emission trends successfully reproduce present-day atmospheric enrichment in mercury.

Black carbon absorption at the global scale is affected by particle-scale diversity in composition.

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) exerts a strong, but uncertain, warming effect on the climate. BC that is coated with non-absorbing material absorbs more strongly than the same amount of BC in an uncoated particle, but the magnitude of this absorption enhancement (Eabs) is not well constrained. Modelling studies and laboratory measurements have found stronger absorption enhancement than has been observed in the atmosphere. Here, using a particle-resolved aerosol model to simulate diverse BC populations, we show that absorption is overestimated by as much as a factor of two if diversity is neglected and population-averaged composition is assumed across all BC-containing particles. If, instead, composition diversity is resolved, we find Eabs=1-1.5 at low relative humidity, consistent with ambient observations. This study offers not only an explanation for the discrepancy between modelled and observed absorption enhancement, but also demonstrates how particle-scale simulations can be used to develop relationships for global-scale models.

Gas/particle partitioning and global distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons--a modelling approach.

The global atmospheric distribution and long-range transport (LRT) potential of three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) - anthracene, fluoranthene and benzo[a]pyrene - are studied. The model used is a global aerosol-chemistry-transport-model, which is based on an atmospheric general circulation model. The model includes an in-built dynamic aerosol model coupled to two-dimensional surface compartments. Several parameterisations of gas/particle partitioning and different assumptions of degradation in the aerosol particulate phase were tested. PAHs are mostly distributed in the source regions but reach the Arctic and the Antarctic. The Canadian Arctic is predicted to be significantly less affected by mid-latitude PAH emissions than the European Arctic. Re-volatilisation is significant for semivolatile PAHs. Accumulation of semivolatile PAHs in polar regions, however, is not indicated. The model study suggests that gas/particle partitioning in air drastically influences the atmospheric cycling, the total environmental fate (e.g. compartmental distributions) and the LRT potential of the substances studied. A parameterisation which calculates the gas/particle partitioning assuming absorption into organic matter and adsorption to black carbon (soot) agrees best with the observations at remote sites. The study provides evidence that the degradation in the particulate phase must be slower than that in the gas-phase. The predicted concentrations of the semivolatile PAHs anthracene and fluoranthene in near-ground air at remote sites in mid and high northern latitudes are in line with measured concentrations, if adsorption of the substances to soot combined with absorption in particulate organic matter is assumed to determine gas/particle partitioning, but cannot be explained by adsorption alone (Junge-Pankow parameterisation of gas/particle partitioning). The results suggest that PAHs absorbed in the organic matrix of particulate matter is shielded from the gas-phase.

Climate-relevant properties of diesel particulate emissions: results from a piggyback study in Bangkok, Thailand.

A "piggyback" approach is used to characterize aerosol emissions to obtain input for large-scale models of atmospheric transport. Particulate and gaseous emissions from diesel trucks, light-duty vehicles, and buses were measured by the Bangkok Pollution Control Department as part of the Developing Integrated Emissions Strategies for Existing Land Transport (DIESEL) project. We added filter-based measurements of carbonaceous composition, particulate light absorption, and water uptake. For 88 "normal" diesel vehicles (PM emission rate < 4.7 g/kg), our best estimate of the average PM2.5 emission rate is 2.2 +/- 0.5 g/kg, whereas for 15 high emitters, it is 8.4 +/- 1.9 g/kg. The effect of Euro standards on PM emission rates was apparent for heavy-duty vehicles, but not for light-duty vehicles. Carbonaceous composition appears relatively consistent, with particulate (artifact-corrected) OC at 17 +/- 1% and EC at 40 +/- 8% of PM for 103 pickups, vans, heavy-duty trucks and buses. The median absorption cross-section for EC is 10.5 m2/g at 532 nm. The history of average emission rate and chemical composition during the project suggests that about 25 vehicles can provide a regional PM emission rate for normal vehicles. Other studies such as remote sensing measurements will be required to estimate the important contribution of high-emitting vehicles.

Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.

Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.

Chemical, microphysical and optical properties of primary particles from the combustion of biomass fuels.

Biomass fuel combustion for residential energy significantly influences both emissions and the atmospheric burden of aerosols in world regions, i.e., east and south Asia. This study reports measurements of climate-relevant properties of particles emitted from biomass fuels widely used for cooking in south Asia, in laboratory experiments simulating actual cooking in the region. Fuel burn rates of 1-2 kg h(-1) for wood species, and 1.5-2 kg h(-1) for crop residues and dried cattle dung, influenced PM2.5 emission factors which were 1.7-2 g kg(-1) at low burn rates but 5-9 gkg(-1) at higher burn rates. Total carbon accounted for 45-55% and ions and trace elements for 2-12% of PM2.5 mass. The elemental carbon (EC) content was variable and highest (22-35%) in particles emitted from low burn rate combustion (wood and jute stalks) but significantly lower (2-4%) from high burn rate combustion (dried cattle dung and rice straw). The mass absorption cross-section (MAC, m2 g(-1)) correlated with EC content for strongly absorbing particles. Weakly absorbing particles, from straw and dung combustion, showed absorption that could not be explained by EC content alone. On average, the MAC of biofuel emission particles was significantly higher than reported measurements from forest fires but somewhat lower than those from diesel engines, indicating potential to significantly influence atmospheric absorption. Both for a given fuel and across different fuels, increased burn rates result in higher emission rates of PM2.5, larger organic carbon (OC) content, larger average particle sizes, and lower MAC. Larger mean particle size (0.42-1.31 microm MMAD) and organic carbon content, than in emissions from combustion sources like diesels, have potential implications for hygroscopic growth and cloud nucleation behavior of these aerosols. These measurements can be used to refine regional emission inventories and derive optical parametrizations, for climate modeling, representative of regions dominated by primary particles from biomass fuel combustion.