Development and external validation of a nomogram and online tool to predict bowel dysfunction following restorative rectal cancer resection: the POLARS score.

OBJECTIVE: Bowel dysfunction is common following a restorative rectal cancer resection, but symptom severity and the degree of quality of life impairment is highly variable. An internationally validated patient-reported outcome measure, Low Anterior Resection Syndrome (LARS) score, now enables these symptoms to be measured. The study purpose was: (1) to develop a model that predicts postoperative bowel function; (2) externally validate the model and (3) incorporate these findings into a nomogram and online tool in order to individualise patient counselling and aid preoperative consent. DESIGN: Patients more than 1 year after curative restorative anterior resection (UK, median 54 months; Denmark (DK), 56 months since surgery) were invited to complete The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire - Core 30 version3 (EORTC QLQ-C30 v3), LARS and Wexner incontinence scores. Demographics, tumour characteristics, preoperative/postoperative treatment and surgical procedures were recorded. Using transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, risk factors for bowel dysfunction were independently assessed by advanced linear regression shrinkage techniques for each dataset (UK:DK). RESULTS: Patients in the development (UK, n=463) and validation (DK, n=938) datasets reported mean (SD) LARS scores of 26 (11) and 24 (11), respectively. Key predictive factors for LARS were: age (at surgery); tumour height, total versus partial mesorectal excision, stoma and preoperative radiotherapy, with satisfactory model calibration and a Mallow's Cp of 7.5 and 5.5, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Pre-Operative LARS score (POLARS) is the first nomogram and online tool to predict bowel dysfunction severity prior to anterior resection. Colorectal surgeons, gastroenterologist and nurse specialists may use POLARS to help patients understand their risk of bowel dysfunction and to preoperatively highlight patients who may require additional postoperative support.

Metachronous colorectal cancer: a competing risks analysis with consideration for a stratified approach to surveillance colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of metachronous cancer will become an important clinical consideration as the life expectancy of the population increases and as rates of curative resection improve. OBJECTIVE: To assess the pattern of metachronous cancer development following curative resection of colorectal cancer in an unselected patient population offered postoperative colonoscopic surveillance. METHOD: Prospective clinical follow-up after curative colorectal cancer resection and surveillance colonoscopy with or without polypectomy in accordance with the national guidelines. Actuarial analysis and competing risk analysis were performed to account for death and recurrence and to stratify for age, gender, stage, and tumor site. RESULTS: Five hundred thirty-eight patients with median follow-up 4 years 2 month (0-16) years. Fifteen patients (3%) developed metachronous cancer, at a median time interval of 90 months from primary resection. Thirteen metachronous cancer patients (87%, 13/15) underwent one to five surveillance colonoscopies: nine patients were asymptomatic at time of diagnosis of metachronous cancer. Competing risks analysis suggests that the adjusted cumulative incidence in males aged 55 is 4% at 10 years compared with 1% in females aged 85 years old. CONCLUSIONS: A patient aged under 65 at the time of the primary curative resection carries a 2% 5-year risk of metachronous cancer, implying that 3 year surveillance colonoscopy is justified. Whereas patients aged over 75 carry less than a 2% 10-year risk, implying that it is seldom warranted to repeat the colonoscopy more frequently than every 5 years. A stratified approach to the frequency of surveillance colonoscopy requires further consideration.

Left ventricular hypertrophy and incident cognitive decline in older adults with hypertension.

The association between raised blood pressure and increased risk of subsequent cognitive decline is well known. Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), as a marker of hypertensive target organ damage, may help identify those at risk of cognitive decline. We assessed whether LVH was associated with subsequent cognitive decline or dementia in hypertensive participants aged ≥80 years in the randomized, placebo-controlled Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial. LVH was assessed using 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) based on the Cornell Product (CP-LVH), Sokolow-Lyon (SL-LVH), and Cornell Voltage (CV-LVH) criteria. The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was used to assess cognitive function at baseline and annually. A fall in MMSE to <24 or an annual fall of >3 points were defined as cognitive decline and triggered dementia screening (Diagnostic Statistical Manual IV). Death was defined as a competing event. Fine-Gray regression models were used to examine the relationship between baseline LVH and cognitive outcomes. There were 2645 in the analytical sample, including 201 (7.6%) with CP-LVH, 225 (8.5%) SL-LVH and 251 (9.5%) CV-LVH. CP-LVH was associated with increased risk of cognitive decline, subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR)1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.67) in multivariate analyses. SL-LVH and CV-LVH were not associated with cognitive decline (sHR1.06 (95% CI 0.82-1.37) and sHR1.13 (95% CI 0.89-1.43), respectively). LVH was not associated with dementia. LVH may be related to subsequent cognitive decline, but evidence was inconsistent depending on ECG criterion and there were no associations with incident dementia. Additional work is needed to understand the relationships between blood pressure, LVH assessment and cognition.

Changes in cerebral function parameters with maraviroc-intensified antiretroviral therapy in treatment naive HIV-positive individuals.

BACKGROUND: Maraviroc-intensified antiretroviral therapy (ART) may be associated with cognitive benefits. METHODS: Therapy-naive, cognitively asymptomatic, HIV-positive individuals were randomly allocated on a 1 : 1 basis to standard ART (Arm1: tenofovir-emtricitabine and atazanavir/ritonavir) or maraviroc intensified ART (Arm2: abacavir-lamivudine and darunavir/ritonavir/maraviroc). Over 48 weeks, detailed assessments of cognitive function tests were undertaken and cerebral metabolites measured using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Our primary endpoint was mean change in cognitive function across treatment arms with factors associated with cognitive function changes also assessed. RESULTS: Of 60 individuals randomized (30 Arm1 and 30 Arm2), 58 were men and 44 of white ethnicity. Treatment groups had similar disease characteristics including overall mean (SD) baseline CD4 cell count 428 (209) and 414 (229) cells/µl, Arms1 and 2, respectively. At week 48, plasma HIV RNA was less than 50 copies/ml in 55 of 56 of those completing study procedures. Cognitive function improved over 48 weeks [mean change z-score (SD) 0.16 (0.09) Arm1 and 0.25 (0.08) Arm2, P = 0.96 for differences between study arms]. A greater increase in frontal grey matter N-acetyl aspartate/creatine ratio was observed in Arm1 [ratio change of 0.071 (SD 0.16)] versus Arm2 [change -0.097 (SD 0.18), P = 0.009], although this was not associated with changes in cognitive function (P = 0.17). CONCLUSION: Maraviroc-intensified ART had no demonstrable benefit on cognitive function in individuals initiating ART. Greater improvement in neuronal metabolites (N-acetyl aspartate/creatine) was observed with standard ART. Future work should focus on maraviroc-intensified ART in individuals with cognitive impairment.

A Comparative Phase I Study of Combination, Homologous Subtype-C DNA, MVA, and Env gp140 Protein/Adjuvant HIV Vaccines in Two Immunization Regimes.

There remains an urgent need for a prophylactic HIV vaccine. We compared combined MVA and adjuvanted gp140 to sequential MVA/gp140 after DNA priming. We expected Env-specific CD4+ T-cells after DNA and MVA priming, and Env-binding antibodies in 100% individuals after boosting with gp140 and that combined vaccines would not compromise safety and might augment immunogenicity. Forty volunteers were primed three times with DNA plasmids encoding (CN54) env and (ZM96) gag-pol-nef at 0, 4 and 8 weeks then boosted with MVA-C (CN54 env and gag-pol-nef) and glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant-aqueous formulation (GLA-AF) adjuvanted CN54gp140. They were randomised to receive them in combination at the same visit at 16 and 20 weeks (accelerated) or sequentially with MVA-C at 16, 20, and GLA-AF/gp140 at 24 and 28 weeks (standard). All vaccinations were intramuscular. Primary outcomes included ≥grade 3 safety events and the titer of CN54gp140-specific binding IgG. Other outcomes included neutralization, binding antibody specificity and T-cell responses. Two participants experienced asymptomatic ≥grade 3 transaminitis leading to discontinuation of vaccinations, and three had grade 3 solicited local or systemic reactions. A total of 100% made anti-CN54gp140 IgG and combining vaccines did not significantly alter the response; geometric mean titer 6424 (accelerated) and 6578 (standard); neutralization of MW965.2 Tier 1 pseudovirus was superior in the standard group (82 versus 45% responders, p = 0.04). T-cell ELISpot responses were CD4+ and Env-dominant; 85 and 82% responding in the accelerated and standard groups, respectively. Vaccine-induced IgG responses targeted multiple regions within gp120 with the V3 region most immunodominant and no differences between groups detected. Combining MVA and gp140 vaccines did not result in increased adverse events and did not significantly impact upon the titer of Env-specific binding antibodies, which were seen in 100% individuals. The approach did however affect other immune responses; neutralizing antibody responses, seen only to Tier 1 pseudoviruses, were poorer when the vaccines were combined and while T-cell responses were seen in >80% individuals in both groups and similarly CD4 and Env dominant, their breadth/polyfunctionality tended to be lower when the vaccines were combined, suggesting attenuation of immunogenicity and cautioning against this accelerated regimen.

Hodgkin disease (1973-2002): long-term survival and cure fractions.

The Nottinghamshire Lymphoma Registry contains the details of all patients diagnosed with lymphoma (since 1 January 1973) within a defined geographical area with a stable population of 1.1 million. The aim of this study was to investigate the relative survival and estimate the cure fraction for patients with Hodgkin disease (HD) using various cure fraction models. Five- and 10-year survival was estimated in comparison to the general population of the same age, gender and year of diagnosis. Relative survival probabilities at 10 years were 52.3% for the 1973-1982 cohort, 67.8% (1983-1992) and 75.7% (1993-2002). The estimated cured fraction (π) was 45%, 65% and 75%, respectively, for the same cohorts. There was very little excess mortality after 4 years from treatment. The prognosis of patients with HD has improved progressively within a defined unselected population over this 30-year period. In the 1993-2002 cohort the prognosis after 4 years of treatment is almost the same as for a normal population.

Receptionist rECognition and rEferral of Patients with Stroke (RECEPTS): unannounced simulated patient telephone call study in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Timely recognition and referral are essential for treatment. AIM: To examine the ability of receptionists in general practices to recognise symptoms of stroke and direct patients to emergency care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Unannounced simulated patient telephone calls and prospective cross-sectional survey study in general practices in the Birmingham and Solihull area. METHOD: A total of 52 general practices participated in a total of 520 simulated telephone calls, with 183 receptionists completing questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine likelihood of referral for immediate care by ease of vignette recognition and number of common stroke symptoms present. RESULTS: General practice receptionists correctly referred 69% of simulated calls for immediate care. Calls classed as 'difficult' to recognise were less likely to be immediately referred. Compared with 'easy' calls: 'difficult' calls odds ratio (OR) 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.08 to 0.26; 'moderate' calls OR 0.55, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.92. Similarly, calls including one or two 'FAST' symptoms were less likely to be referred immediately (compared with three FAST symptoms: one symptom OR 0.30, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.72; two symptoms OR 0.35, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.83). CONCLUSION: General practice receptionists refer patients with stroke for immediate care when they present with several symptoms; however, they are less likely to refer patients presenting with only one symptom or less common symptoms of stroke. Optimum management of acute stroke in primary care requires interventions that improve receptionists' knowledge of lesser-known stroke symptoms.

Exploratory cross-sectional study of factors associated with pre-hospital management of pain.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Improving pain management is important in pre-hospital settings. We aimed to investigate how pain was managed in pre-hospital suspected acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or fracture and how this could be improved. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional study in Lincolnshire using recorded suspected AMI and fracture between April 2005 and March 2006. Outcomes included pain assessment, improvement in pain scores and administration of Entonox, opiates or GTN (in AMI). RESULTS: We accessed 3654 patients with suspected AMI or fracture. Pain was assessed in over three quarters of patients but analgesics administered in under two-fifths. Assessment was more likely in patients with suspected AMI (OR 2.05, 95% CI [1.70, 2.47]), and who were alert (OR 3.55, 95% CI [2.32, 5.43]). Entonox was less likely to be administered for suspected AMI (OR 0.11, 95% CI [0.087, 0.15]) or by paramedic crews (OR 0.56, 95% CI [0.45, 0.68]) but more likely to be given when pain had been assessed (OR 3.54, 95% CI [2.77, 4.52]). Opiates were more likely to be prescribed for suspected AMI (OR 1.30, 95% CI [1.07, 1.57]), in alert patients (OR 1.35, 95% CI [0.71, 2.56]) assessed for pain (OR 2.20, 95% CI [1.73, 2.80]) by paramedic crews. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory study showed shortfalls in assessment and treatment of pain, but also demonstrated that assessment of pain was associated with more effective treatment. Further research is needed to understand barriers to pre-hospital pain management and investigate mechanisms to overcome these.