A mathematical model of COVID-19 and the multi fears of the community during the epidemiological stage.

Within two years, the world has experienced a pandemic phenomenon that changed almost everything in the macro and micro-environment; the economy, the community's social life, education, and many other fields. Governments started to collaborate with health institutions and the WHO to control the pandemic spread, followed by many regulations such as wearing masks, maintaining social distance, and home office work. While the virus has a high transmission rate and shows many mutated forms, another discussion appeared in the community: the fear of getting infected and the side effects of the produced vaccines. The community started to face uncertain information spread through some networks keeping the discussions of side effects on-trend. However, this pollution spread confused the community more and activated multi fears related to the virus and the vaccines. This paper establishes a mathematical model of COVID-19, including the community's fear of getting infected and the possible side effects of the vaccines. These fears appeared from uncertain information spread through some social sources. Our primary target is to show the psychological effect on the community during the pandemic stage. The theoretical study contains the existence and uniqueness of the IVP and, after that, the local stability analysis of both equilibrium points, the disease-free and the positive equilibrium point. Finally, we show the global asymptotic stability holds under specific conditions using a suitable Lyapunov function. In the end, we conclude our theoretical findings with some simulations.

Evaluation of clinical and laboratory findings in severe group COVID-19 pregnants without comorbidity.

BACKGROUND: COVID - 19 disease may be seen with different clinical presentations in pregnant women. Comorbid diseases are important factors affecting the progression of this disease. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the clinical and laboratory findings in pregnant women with COVID - 19 who had no comorbid disease. METHODS: This retrospective designed study included 217 patients with Covid PCR positive in typically COVID - 19 clinic. The patients were classified into asymptomatic, nonsevere, and severe disease groups. The symptoms, laboratory results, hospital followups and intensive care records of the patients and the findings of new borns are presented. RESULTS: Most of the patients (78%) were in the third trimester of pregnancy, and 103 patients in the study group had severe disease. Fever in the non-severe group and respiratory distress in the severe group were the most common symptoms in the patients. The severe clinical manifestations were specifically observed in the third trimester patients. In the severe group, neutrophil, lactat dehydrogenase, ferritin, CK - MB, IL - 6, and hospital stay were statistically higher than those in other groups (p < 0.05). Increase in BUN and creatine were the most predictive parameters in intensive care admission. While the intensive care unit (ICU) requirement was higher in patients in the severe group, premature birth was observed more frequently in the severe group (p < 0.05) .

Serum TNF-α, IL-1ß, and IL-6 levels in chronic HBV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: The objective of the study was to evaluate the serum levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-1ß and IL-6 in chronic HBV-infected patients. METHODS: The present study was a single centre, prospective and randomised controlled trial. Twenty healthy volunteers and thirty HBeAg-negative patients with planned liver biopsy and treatment-naive diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were included in the study. TNF-α, IL-1ß and IL-6 levels were measured in the serum of CHB patient and control groups using an ELISA. Results were compared statistically using a Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: The mean age of the CHB group (20 men, 10 women) and the control group (10 men, 10 women) was 33.3 ± 9.7 (17-55) and 26.1 ± 12.3 (16-57), respectively. When the two groups were compared with the Mann-Whitney U-test, TNF-α and IL-6 levels were found to be significantly higher in the CHB group compared to the control group (P = .003, P < .0001, respectively). Although IL-1ß levels were not statistically significant, they were higher in the CHB group compared to the controls (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study showed that serum levels of TNF-α and IL-6 are increased in CHB patients.

Fever of unknown origin (FUO) on a land on cross-roads between Asia and Europa; a multicentre study from Turkey.

AIMS: The differential diagnosis of Fever of Unknown Origin (FUO) is still a major clinical challenge despite the advances in diagnostic procedures. In this multicentre study, we aimed to reveal FUO aetiology and factors influencing the final diagnosis of FUO in Turkey. METHODS: A total of 214 patients with FUO between the years 2015 and 2019 from 13 tertiary training and research hospitals were retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: The etiologic distribution of FUO was infections (44.9%), malignancies (15.42%), autoimmune/inflammatory (11.68%) diseases, miscellaneous diseases (8.41%) and undiagnosed cases (19.62%). Brucellosis (10.25%), extrapulmonary tuberculosis (6.54%) and infective endocarditis (6.54%) were the most frequent three infective causes. Solid malignancies (7.1%) and lymphoma (5.6%), adult-onset still's disease (6.07%) and thyroiditis (5.14%) were other frequent diseases. The aetiological spectrum did not differ in elderly people (P < .05). Infections were less frequent in Western (34.62%) compared with Eastern regions of Turkey (60.71%) (P < .001, OR: 0.31, 95% Cl: 0.19 to 0.60). The ratio of undiagnosed aetiology was significantly higher in elderly people (p: 0.046, OR: 2.34, 95% Cl: 1.00 to 5.48) and significantly lower in Western Turkey (P: .004, OR: 3.07, 95% Cl: 1.39 to 6.71). CONCLUSIONS: Brucellosis, extrapulmonary tuberculosis and infective endocarditis remain to be the most frequent infective causes of FUO in Turkey. Solid tumours and lymphomas, AOSD and thyroiditis are the other common diseases. The aetiological spectrum did not differ in elderly people, on the other hand, infections were more common in Eastern Turkey. A considerable amount of aetiology remained undiagnosed despite the state-of-the-art technology in healthcare services.

Maternal deaths due to COVID-19 disease: The cases in a single center pandemic hospital in the south east of Turkey.

Coronavirus-19 disease is still a pandemic health problem and uncertainty in the management of severe or critically ill pregnant women confuses continually the obstetricians. The nationwide maternal mortality rate due to covid-19 still has not been presented in any study in Turkey. The study includes four maternal mortality cases in a referral single pandemic center in our country. Case 1, a 34-year-old, 34 weeks of gestation with moderate disease. The cesarean section was performed due to nonreassuring nonstress tests. She died on the postpartum seventh day. Case 2, a 37-year-old, at 36 weeks of gestation. The symptoms consisted of dry cough, shortness of breath and labor pain, and 3 cm cervical opening. Her second cesarean section was performed and she died at postpartum ninth day. Case 3, 33 years old, 33 weeks of gestation with moderate/severe stage of the disease. A few days after the treatment, CS was performed due to her severe condition and she died at postpartum 15th day. Case 4, 39 years old, 35 weeks of gestation, she was at a severe stage of the disease. On the second day after the treatment, CS was performed due to her severe condition and she died at postpartum seventh day. The postpartum period after cesarean section should be followed cautiously under the appropriate treatment of the COVID-19 disease. Unfortunately, the reason for this rapid deterioration which we observed in our cases is not well known and appropriate medications and algorithms should be established as soon as possible.

A fractional-order model of COVID-19 considering the fear effect of the media and social networks on the community.

Since December 2019, the world has experienced from a virus, known as Covid-19, that is highly transmittable and is now spread worldwide. Many mathematical models and studies have been implemented to work on the infection and transmission risks. Besides the virus's transmission effect, another discussion appears in the community: the fear effect. People who have never heard about coronavirus, face every day uncertain and different information regarding the effect of the virus and the daily death rates from sources like the media, the medical institutions or organizations. Thus, the fear of the virus in the community can possibly reach the point that people become scared and confused about information polluted from different networks with long-term trend discussions. In this work, we use the Routh-Hurwitz Criteria to analyze the local stability of two essential critical points: the disease-free and the co-existing critical point. Using the discretization process, our analysis have shown that one should distinguish between the spread of "awareness" or "fear" in the community through the media and others to control the virus's transmission. Finally, we conclude our theoretical findings with numerical simulations.

A mathematical model of the evolution and spread of pathogenic coronaviruses from natural host to human host.

Coronaviruses are highly transmissible and are pathogenic viruses of the 21st century worldwide. In general, these viruses are originated in bats or rodents. At the same time, the transmission of the infection to the human host is caused by domestic animals that represent in the habitat the intermediate host. In this study, we review the currently collected information about coronaviruses and establish a model of differential equations with piecewise constant arguments to discuss the spread of the infection from the natural host to the intermediate, and from them to the human host, while we focus on the potential spillover of bat-borne coronaviruses. The local stability of the positive equilibrium point of the model is considered via the Linearized Stability Theorem. Besides, we discuss global stability by employing an appropriate Lyapunov function. To analyze the outbreak in early detection, we incorporate the Allee effect at time t and obtain stability conditions for the dynamical behavior. Furthermore, it is shown that the model demonstrates the Neimark-Sacker Bifurcation. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations to support the theoretical findings.

Cutaneous anthrax in Southeast Anatolia of Turkey.

CONTEXT: Anthrax is a rare disease cause by Bacillus anthracis, a Gram-positive, rod-shaped endospore-forming capsuled bacterium. Anthrax is manifest in three primary forms: cutaneous, respiratory, and gastrointestinal. Cutaneous anthrax accounts for approximately 95% of all cases of anthrax in humans. OBJECTIVE: In the present study, we evaluated the clinical diagnosis and treatment of cutaneous anthrax, a rare disease that nonetheless remains a serious healthcare problem in developing countries. METHODS: The complete medical records of patients diagnosed with cutaneous anthrax between January 2001 and December 2012 were examined in a retrospective manner. Cutaneous anthrax was diagnosed by the identification of typical anthrax lesions and/or the presence of Gram-positive-capsuled bacillus after staining with Gram stain and methylen blue in pathology samples obtained from these lesions and the presence of characteristic scarring with a history of severe swelling, black eschar, and positive response to treatment form the basis of diagnosis in cases where cultures were negative for the presence of bacillus. RESULTS: A total of 58 patients were admitted to the hospital with cutaneous anthrax between January 2001 and December 2012. This included 32 (55.2%) males and 26 (44.8%) females, with an age range of 15-82 years and a mean age of 38 ± 13.8 years. The incubation period for the infection ranged between 1 and 20 d (mean 3.7 ± 1.4 d). The most common symptoms at the time of hospital referral were swelling, redness, and black eschar of the skin. The most common lesion site was the hand and fingers (41.3%). Isolated of bacteria was used to diagnose the disease in six cases (23.8%), detection of Gram-positive bacillus in samples of characteristic lesion material was used in seven (28.5%) cases, and the presence of a characteristic lesion was the sole diagnostic criteria in 45 (77.6%) cases. Treatment consisted of penicillin G (12 cases), ampicillin-sulbactam (30 cases), Cefazolin (12 cases), or ciprofloxacin (4 cases). CONCLUSION: Although the prevalence of anthrax is a decreasing worldwide, it remains a significant problem in developing countries. Rapid identification of the signs and symptoms of cutaneous anthrax is essential for effective treatment. Early supportive treatment and appropriate antimicrobial measures are necessary to address this potentially life-threatening disease.

Evaluation of risk factors affecting hospital-acquired infections in the neurosurgery intensive care unit.

The aim of the present study was to identify nosocomial infections (NIs), and their associated risk factors, in patients treated in the neurosurgery intensive care unit (NICU) of our hospital. Patients determined to have NIs between January 2008 and December 2012 were included in the study. Each patient's age, gender, microbiological culture results, underlying conditions, type of NIs, device utilization, total parenteral nutrition, reason for hospitalization, Glasgow score, and treatment were recorded and evaluated using statistical analysis. Risk factors for NIs were analyzed with a logistic regression model. During the five-year period, 60 NI episodes were detected in 56 out of 1643 patients. The mean age of the patient population was 33.3 (1-79) years. Of the patients, 22 were female and 34 were male. The overall incidence rate (NIs/100) and incidence density (NIs /1000 days of stay) of NIs were 3.65% and 6.5/1000 patient days, respectively. Regardless of the year of surveillance, the three most commonly detected NIs were bloodstream infection, shunt infection, and ventilator-associated pneumonia. No statistically significant difference was detected between infected and uninfected patients in terms of sex, age, blood transfusions, or mannitol and steroid use (p ≥ 0.05). In the present study, Glasgow scores, the frequency of prior usage of broad-spectrum antibiotics, and NICU stay durations were significantly higher among patients with infections (p < 0.001). Univariate analysis demonstrated that a low Glasgow score, re-operation, and use of mechanical ventilation were risk factors for NIs. We identified low Glasgow coma scores, long hospital stay duration, use of wide spectrum antibiotics, mechanical ventilation, total parenteral nutrition, and re-operation as risk factors for NIs.

A mathematical model of mobility-related infection and vaccination in an epidemiological case.

In this study, we established a system of differential equations with piecewise constant arguments to explain the impact of epidemiological transmission between different locations. Our main goal is to look into the need for vaccines as well as the necessity of the lockdown period. We proved that keeping social distance was necessary during the pandemic spread to stop transmissions between different locations and that re-vaccinations, including screening tests, were crucial to avoid reinfections. Using the Routh-Hurwitz Criterion, we examined the model's local stability and demonstrated that the system could experience Stationary and Neimark-Sacker bifurcations depending on certain circumstances.

Modeling a SEIVRS dynamic behavior with transportation-related transmissionEstablishing a system of two urban as differential equations with piecewise constant argumentsStability analysis of disease-free and co-existing equilibrium pointsAnalyzing bifurcation types around the disease-free and co-existing equilibrium points.Illustrating numerical scenarios that were applied during the pandemic event.