Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities.

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Temporal population variability in local forest communities has mixed effects on tree species richness across a latitudinal gradient.

Among the local processes that determine species diversity in ecological communities, fluctuation-dependent mechanisms that are mediated by temporal variability in the abundances of species populations have received significant attention. Higher temporal variability in the abundances of species populations can increase the strength of temporal niche partitioning but can also increase the risk of species extinctions, such that the net effect on species coexistence is not clear. We quantified this temporal population variability for tree species in 21 large forest plots and found much greater variability for higher latitude plots with fewer tree species. A fitted mechanistic model showed that among the forest plots, the net effect of temporal population variability on tree species coexistence was usually negative, but sometimes positive or negligible. Therefore, our results suggest that temporal variability in the abundances of species populations has no clear negative or positive contribution to the latitudinal gradient in tree species richness.

Comparison of point transect distance and traditional acoustic point-count sampling of hoolock gibbons in Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary, Myanmar.

Effective conservation demands more accurate and reliable methods of survey and monitoring of populations. Surveys of gibbon populations have relied mostly on mapping of groups in "listening areas" using acoustical point-count data. Traditional methods of estimating density in have usually used counts of gibbon groups within fixed-radius areas or areas bounded by terrain barriers to sound transmission, and have not accounted for possible decline in detectability with distance. In this study we sampled the eastern hoolock gibbon (Hoolock leucogenys) population in Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary (WS), Myanmar, using two methods: the traditional point-count method with fixed-radius listening areas, and a newer method using point-transect Distance analysis from a sample point established in the center of each listening point array. The basic data were obtained by triangulating on singing groups from four LPs for 4 days, in 10 randomly selected sample areas within the sanctuary. The point transect method gave an average density of 3.13 groups km-2 , higher than the estimates of group density within fixed-radius areas without correction for detectability. A new method of analysis of singing probability per day (p[1]) gave an estimate of 0.547. Htamanthi WS is an important conservation area containing an estimated 7000 (95% confidence interval: 5000-10,000) hoolock groups. Surveys at Htamanthi WS and locations in the Hukaung Valley suggest that the extensive evergreen forests in northern Myanmar have the capacity to support 2-4 (average about 3) groups of hoolock gibbons per km2 , but most forests in its range have yet to be surveyed.

Infant loss during and after male replacement in gibbons.

According to the sexual selection hypothesis, infanticide during resident male replacement is an adaptive strategy that has evolved because the killing of unweaned offspring sired by previous males shortens the inter-birth intervals of the mothers whose infants are targeted and thereby increases the reproductive fitness of the perpetrator. To test this hypothesis, we describe previously unreported cases of primary male replacement for two gibbon species (Hylobates lar and Nomascus nasutus), and review all other reported cases of primary male replacement in gibbons. Overall, infants were present in nearly half of all cases (16/33, 48%) and of the 18 infants present during replacement, 50% (N = 9) disappeared within 2 months of the event. In four of the five cases where there was sufficient demographic information to identify the likely sire of the subsequent offspring of females that lost infants, the new male was believed to be the sire. Infants were also less likely to die or disappear if the new male and original resident male were possible kin. However, there was no significant difference in the age of infants between those that died or disappeared following replacement and those that survived to weaning (p = .630). Our review of takeover-related infant loss in gibbons confirms that periods of male instability are risky for unweaned infants and that replacing males benefit from infant loss. Nevertheless, variability in the context of infant loss and difficulties related to data collection in the field make it difficult to test competing hypotheses concerning the mechanisms and functions of infanticide in the small apes.

The ecology of white-handed and pileated gibbons in a zone of overlap and hybridization in Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: The study of related species in contact zones can elucidate what factors mediate species coexistence and geographical distributions. We investigated niche overlap and group interactions of two gibbon species and their hybrids co-occurring in a zone of overlap and hybridization. METHODS: The location, composition and behavior of white-handed, pileated, and mixed-species gibbon groups were studied by following them during 31 consecutive months in a relatively large part of the contact zone. RESULTS: Twenty groups of white-handed gibbon were mapped followed by nine groups of pileated gibbons and five mixed-species groups. White-handed, pileated and mixed-species groups had similar sizes and composition, ate a high proportion of fruits, shared a large number of species in their diets, and presented similar habitat preferences. Group home range sizes did not differ between species and overlapped little with neighboring groups irrespective of species, and intraspecific and interspecific encounter rates were similar. DISCUSSION: Ecological similarities support that competition between the gibbon species exists and takes the form of interspecific territoriality. However, we could not find any clear mechanism of niche partitioning favoring coexistence between species. Our findings suggest that the contact zone is unstable and is maintained by dispersal inward from groups of the parental species. The relatively low numbers of mixed-species groups and hybrids found suggests a high degree of premating reproductive isolation, perhaps mediated by interspecific miscommunication. The existence of hybrids and backcrosses potentially undetectable from phenotypic characters alone raises the possibility of more widespread introgression than has been evident. Hence, while interspecific territoriality should reduce the rate of gene transfer, it would not necessarily present a barrier to introgression into contiguous populations of the opposite species.

Long-term home range use in white-handed gibbons (Hylobates lar) in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand.

Ranging behavior is an important element of how nonhuman primates obtain sufficient resources to ensure biological maintenance and reproductive success. As most primates live in permanent social groups, group members must balance the benefits of group living with the costs of intragroup competition for resources. One way to mitigate the cost of intragroup feeding competition is to increase foraging-related travel, thereby increasing the number of patches visited. As a result we might expect home range size to increase as a function of group size. On the other hand, for perennially territorial species, ranging behavior may be constrained by the ranging requirements of territorial defense or by the location of neighboring territories, which would result in long-term stability in the size and location of a group's home range. In this study, we examined changes in range-use characteristics in one well-habituated group of white-handed gibbons (Hylobates lar) during three study periods over a 10-year span. Group size changed from five members, two adults, two juveniles, and one infant, in 1994, to two adults in 2002, and to three adults and one sub-adult in 2004. Despite inter-annual changes in core area use we found that home range location was highly stable across years. Nevertheless, home range size was larger and daily path length significantly longer in 2002 relative to 1994 when a dependent infant was present in the group. The percentage of time adults spent resting was also significantly greater in 1994 when the infant was present. These findings highlight the importance of considering group composition, in addition to group size, when evaluating the determinants of ranging behavior. We also consider the influence of individual and shared knowledge on home range stability.

Effectiveness of primate seed dispersers for an "oversized" fruit, Garcinia benthamii.

The largest fruits found in tropical forests may depend on complementary seed dispersal strategies. These fruits are dispersed most effectively by megafauna, but populations can persist where megafauna are absent or erratic visitors. Smaller animals often consume these large fruits, but their capacity to disperse these seeds effectively has rarely been assessed. We evaluated the contributions of gibbons (Hylobates lar) and other frugivores in the seed dispersal of the megafaunal fruit Garcinia benthamii, using the SDE (seed dispersal effectiveness) landscape. Gibbons preferentially consumed G. benthamii fruits and were the main seed disperser that we observed. However, gibbons became satiated when availability was high, with 57% of fruits falling to the ground unhandled. Recruitment of seedlings from gibbon-dispersed seeds was also very low. Elephants consumed G. benthamii fruit, but occurred at low density and were rare visitors to the trees. We suggest that gibbons might complement the seed dispersal role of elephants for G. benthamii, allowing limited recruitment in areas (such as the study site) where elephants occur at low density. Fruit availability varied between years; when availability was low, gibbons reliably consumed most of the crop and dispersed some seeds that established seedlings, albeit at low numbers (2.5 seedlings per crop). When fruit availability was high, the fruit supply overwhelmed the gibbons and other arboreal frugivores, ensuring a large abundance of fruit available to terrestrial seed dispersers. Although gibbons effectively dispersed more seeds at these times (20.7 seedlings per crop), there was the potential for elephants to move many more seeds. Complementary seed dispersal strategies may be important for megafaunal fruit, because they ensure that very large fruits are able to benefit from megafaunal dispersal but also persist where this dispersal becomes erratic. However, our data suggest that smaller seed dispersers might not be capable of replacing large dispersers, leading to potential changes in landscape-scale dispersal patterns where megafauna are absent.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change.

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25 ha), all stems ≥ 1 cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 °S-61 °N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 °C), changes in precipitation (up to ± 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8 g N m(-2) yr(-1) and 3.1 g S m(-2) yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5 km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Gibbon (Hylobates lar) reintroduction success in Phuket, Thailand, and its conservation benefits.

We summarize the results from a long-term gibbon reintroduction project in Phuket, Thailand, and evaluate its benefits to conservation. Between October 2002 and November 2012, eight breeding families of white-handed gibbons (Hylobates lar) were returned to the wild in Khao Phra Thaew non-hunting area (KPT). Wild gibbons were extirpated from Phuket Island by the early 1980s, but the illegal wildlife trade has continued to bring young gibbons from elsewhere to the island's popular tourist areas as pets and photo props. The Gibbon Rehabilitation Project (GRP) has rescued and rehabilitated confiscated and donated captive gibbons since 1992 and aims to repopulate the island's last sizable forest area. Following unsuccessful early attempts at translocation in the 1990s, GRP has now developed specific methods for gibbon reintroduction that have led to the establishment of a small independent, reproducing population of captive-raised and wild-born gibbons on Phuket. Eleven infants have been born wild within the reintroduced population, including a second generation wild-born gibbon in September 2012. Benefits of the GRP project include restoration of the gibbon population on Phuket, rescue of illegally kept gibbons, public education, training of personnel in gibbon conservation work, and gaining experience which may prove useful in saving more severely threatened species. It is unlikely that gibbon (and other large primate) translocations will make a significant contribution to conservation of the species as a whole, and primate translocation projects should not be judged solely by this criterion.

LiDAR-based reference aboveground biomass maps for tropical forests of South Asia and Central Africa.

Accurate mapping and monitoring of tropical forests aboveground biomass (AGB) is crucial to design effective carbon emission reduction strategies and improving our understanding of Earth's carbon cycle. However, existing large-scale maps of tropical forest AGB generated through combinations of Earth Observation (EO) and forest inventory data show markedly divergent estimates, even after accounting for reported uncertainties. To address this, a network of high-quality reference data is needed to calibrate and validate mapping algorithms. This study aims to generate reference AGB datasets using field inventory plots and airborne LiDAR data for eight sites in Central Africa and five sites in South Asia, two regions largely underrepresented in global reference AGB datasets. The study provides access to these reference AGB maps, including uncertainty maps, at 100 m and 40 m spatial resolutions covering a total LiDAR footprint of 1,11,650 ha [ranging from 150 to 40,000 ha at site level]. These maps serve as calibration/validation datasets to improve the accuracy and reliability of AGB mapping for current and upcoming EO missions (viz., GEDI, BIOMASS, and NISAR).

Tropical tree ectomycorrhiza are distributed independently of soil nutrients.

Mycorrhizae, a form of plant-fungal symbioses, mediate vegetation impacts on ecosystem functioning. Climatic effects on decomposition and soil quality are suggested to drive mycorrhizal distributions, with arbuscular mycorrhizal plants prevailing in low-latitude/high-soil-quality areas and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) plants in high-latitude/low-soil-quality areas. However, these generalizations, based on coarse-resolution data, obscure finer-scale variations and result in high uncertainties in the predicted distributions of mycorrhizal types and their drivers. Using data from 31 lowland tropical forests, both at a coarse scale (mean-plot-level data) and fine scale (20 × 20 metres from a subset of 16 sites), we demonstrate that the distribution and abundance of EcM-associated trees are independent of soil quality. Resource exchange differences among mycorrhizal partners, stemming from diverse evolutionary origins of mycorrhizal fungi, may decouple soil fertility from the advantage provided by mycorrhizal associations. Additionally, distinct historical biogeographies and diversification patterns have led to differences in forest composition and nutrient-acquisition strategies across three major tropical regions. Notably, Africa and Asia's lowland tropical forests have abundant EcM trees, whereas they are relatively scarce in lowland neotropical forests. A greater understanding of the functional biology of mycorrhizal symbiosis is required, especially in the lowland tropics, to overcome biases from assuming similarity to temperate and boreal regions.

Mycorrhizal feedbacks influence global forest structure and diversity.

One mechanism proposed to explain high species diversity in tropical systems is strong negative conspecific density dependence (CDD), which reduces recruitment of juveniles in proximity to conspecific adult plants. Although evidence shows that plant-specific soil pathogens can drive negative CDD, trees also form key mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi, which may counteract these effects. Across 43 large-scale forest plots worldwide, we tested whether ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibit weaker negative CDD than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. We further tested for conmycorrhizal density dependence (CMDD) to test for benefit from shared mutualists. We found that the strength of CDD varies systematically with mycorrhizal type, with ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibiting higher sapling densities with increasing adult densities than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. Moreover, we found evidence of positive CMDD for tree species of both mycorrhizal types. Collectively, these findings indicate that mycorrhizal interactions likely play a foundational role in global forest diversity patterns and structure.

Genetic analysis of hybridization between white-handed (Hylobates lar) and pileated (Hylobates pileatus) gibbons in a contact zone in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand.

Natural hybridization has played various roles in the evolutionary history of primates. Its consequences range from genetic introgression between taxa, formation of hybrid zones, and formation of new lineages. Hylobates lar, the white-handed gibbon, and Hylobates pileatus, the pileated gibbon, are largely allopatric species in Southeast Asia with a narrow contact zone in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand, which contains both parental types and hybrids. Hybrid individuals in the zone are recognizable by their intermediate pelage and vocal patterns, but have not been analyzed genetically. We analyzed mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA of 52 individuals to estimate the relative genetic contributions of the parental species to each individual, and the amount of introgression into the parental species. We obtained fecal samples from 33 H. lar, 15 H. pileatus and four phenotypically intermediate individuals in the contact zone. Both mitochondrial and microsatellite markers confirmed distinct differences between these taxa. Both H. lar and H. pileatus contributed to the maternal lineages of the hybrids based on mitochondrial analysis; hybrids were viable and present in socially normal reproductive pairs. The microsatellite analysis identified ten admixed individuals, four F1 hybrids, which corresponded to phenotypic hybrids, and six H. lar-like backcrosses. All 15 H. pileatus samples were identified as originating from genetically H. pileatus individuals with no H. lar admixture; hence, backcrossing is biased toward H. lar. A relatively low number of phenotypic hybrids and backcrossed individuals along with a high number of parental types indicates a bimodal hybrid zone, which suggests relatively strong bias in mate selection between the species.

Seed Size Variation of Trees and Lianas in a Tropical Forest of Southeast Asia: Allometry, Phylogeny, and Seed Trait - Plant Functional Trait Relationships.

Seed size is a key trait for understanding and predicting ecological processes in a plant community. In a tropical forest, trees and lianas are major components driving ecosystem function and biogeochemical processes. However, seed ecological research on both components remains limited, particularly phylogenetic patterns and relationships with other traits. Here, we compiled a unique dataset of seed size (seed mass and geometrical size metrics) based on collections of more than 5,200 seeds of 196 woody plant species, covering >98 and 70% of tree and liana stems, respectively, located on a 30-ha plot in a tropical evergreen forest in central Thailand. We aimed to (1) develop allometric equations among seed size metrics to predict seed mass; (2) examine phylogenetic influence on seed size variation; and (3) examine relationships among seed traits and several other functional plant traits. Our allometric equations relating seed mass, seed volume, and width were well-fitted with data (R 2 = 0.94, 0.87 respectively). A phylogenetic signal test found that seed size was randomly distributed across the phylogeny. To study the functional trait relationships, we separately tested seed size data of the tree and liana communities (146 and 50 species, respectively), against mean body size of frugivores, successional niches, leaf, and structural traits. For the tree community, seed size was significantly related to mean body size of frugivores, which we believe is a basic driver of seed size because it is related to the gape width affecting dispersal effectiveness. Nearly all leaf traits were significantly positively correlated with seed size (p < 0.03). The significant positive correlation of leaf area and greenness suggested the high-energy demand of large-seeded species. We found a strong positive correlation between seed size and leaf toughness, suggesting a coordination between seed size and leaf defense. However, all these patterns disappeared in the same analysis applied to the liana community. Liana seed size variation was lower than that of trees, perhaps because lianas grow in relatively more uniform conditions in the forest canopy. Frugivore size was the strongest driver of seed size variation. Our study shows a surprising contrast between trees and lianas that is worth further investigation.

Nonredundancy in the dispersal network of a generalist tropical forest tree.

Plant species with generalized dispersal mutualisms are considered to be robust to local frugivore extinctions because of redundancy between dispersal agents. However, real redundancy can only occur if frugivores have similar foraging and ranging patterns and if fruit is a limiting resource. We evaluated the quantitative and qualitative contributions of seed dispersers for an endochorus mast-fruiting species, Prunus javanica (Rosaceae) in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand, to evaluate the potential redundancy of dispersers. Data were collected from tree watches, seed/fruit traps, and seed transects under and away from fruiting trees, feeding and seed deposition by gibbons (Hylobates lar), and evaluations of seed and first-year seedling survival. We identified three clusters of dispersers within the network. Most (>80%) frugivore species observed were small birds and squirrels that were not functional dispersers, dropping most seeds under or very near the tree crown, where seedling survival was ultimately nil. Monkeys (Macaca leonina) were low-quality, short-range dispersers, but they dispersed large numbers of seeds and were responsible for 67% of surviving first-year seedlings. Gibbons and Oriental Pied Hornbills (Anthracoceros albirostris) handled few fruits, but they provided the highest quality service by carrying most seeds away from the canopy to medium and long distances, respectively. Although there was overlap in the deposition patterns of the functional dispersers, they displayed complementary, rather than redundant, roles in seed dispersal. Satiation of all functional dispersers further limited their capacity to "replace" one another. Redundancy must be evaluated at the community level because each type of disperser may shift to different species in the non-masting years of P. javanica. Our results underscore the need for research on broader spatial and temporal scales, which combines studies of dispersal and plant recruitment, to better understand mechanisms that maintain network stability.

Gibbon travel paths are goal oriented.

Remembering locations of food resources is critical for animal survival. Gibbons are territorial primates which regularly travel through small and stable home ranges in search of preferred, limited and patchily distributed resources (primarily ripe fruit). They are predicted to profit from an ability to memorize the spatial characteristics of their home range and may increase their foraging efficiency by using a 'cognitive map' either with Euclidean or with topological properties. We collected ranging and feeding data from 11 gibbon groups (Hylobates lar) to test their navigation skills and to better understand gibbons' 'spatial intelligence'. We calculated the locations at which significant travel direction changes occurred using the change-point direction test and found that these locations primarily coincided with preferred fruit sources. Within the limits of biologically realistic visibility distances observed, gibbon travel paths were more efficient in detecting known preferred food sources than a heuristic travel model based on straight travel paths in random directions. Because consecutive travel change-points were far from the gibbons' sight, planned movement between preferred food sources was the most parsimonious explanation for the observed travel patterns. Gibbon travel appears to connect preferred food sources as expected under the assumption of a good mental representation of the most relevant sources in a large-scale space.

Different responses of soil respiration to environmental factors across forest stages in a Southeast Asian forest.

Soil respiration (SR) in forests contributes significant carbon dioxide emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and is highly sensitive to environmental changes, including soil temperature, soil moisture, microbial community, surface litter, and vegetation type. Indeed, a small change in SR may have large impacts on the global carbon balance, further influencing feedbacks to climate change. Thus, detailed characterization of SR responses to changes in environmental conditions is needed to accurately estimate carbon dioxide emissions from forest ecosystems. However, data for such analyses are still limited, especially in tropical forests of Southeast Asia where various stages of forest succession exist due to previous land-use changes. In this study, we measured SR and some environmental factors including soil temperature (ST), soil moisture (SM), and organic matter content (OM) in three successional tropical forests in both wet and dry periods. We also analyzed the relationships between SR and these environmental variables. Results showed that SR was higher in the wet period and in older forests. Although no response of SR to ST was found in younger forest stages, SR of the old-growth forest significantly responded to ST, plausibly due to the nonuniform forest structure, including gaps, that resulted in a wide range of ST. Across forest stages, SM was the limiting factor for SR in the wet period, whereas SR significantly varied with OM in the dry period. Overall, our results indicated that the responses of SR to environmental factors varied temporally and across forest succession. Nevertheless, these findings are still preliminary and call for detailed investigations on SR and its variations with environmental factors in Southeast Asian tropical forests where patches of successional stages dominate.

Functional differences within a guild of tropical mammalian frugivores.

Many plants interact with groups of mutualist pollinators and seed dispersers. A key issue for both basic ecology and conservation is whether the different species within these guilds of mutualist animals are functionally equivalent. Comparing the relative effects of sympatric mutualists is important for understanding the evolution of multispecies mutualisms and for predicting mutualism stability in the face of anthropogenic change. However, empirical comparisons of the population-level impacts of mutualist animals on their host plant are rare, particularly for seed dispersal mutualisms in species-rich ecosystems. We compared the influence of three seed-dispersing tropical mammals, lar gibbons (Hylobates lar), sambar deer (Rusa unicolor), and red muntjac deer (Muntiacus muntjak), on the demography of a shared host tree in Thailand, Choerospondias axillaris (Anacardiaceae). Sambar and muntjac dispersed far more C. axillaris seeds than did gibbons. While sambar deposited many seeds under female tree canopies, muntjac were the only disperser to move seeds to open microhabitats, where C. axillaris seed germination, seedling survival, and initial growth are enhanced. Using stage-based population models, we assessed how disperser-specific seed dispersal, variation in the frequency of canopy gap formation, and their interaction influenced the potential population growth of C. axillaris. Large differences in dispersal quantity and small differences in dispersal quality among sambar and gibbons resulted in similar and negligible impacts on the tree's population dynamics. Muntjac, by taking some of the seeds to open microhabitats, are projected to have a greater positive impact on C. axillaris demography than either sambar or gibbons. Model comparisons of population-level species impacts may allow us to predict which ecological interactions are at risk from loss of critical species.

Bushmeat poaching reduces the seed dispersal and population growth rate of a mammal-dispersed tree.

Myriad tropical vertebrates are threatened by overharvest. Whether this harvest has indirect effects on nonhunted organisms that interact with the game species is a critical question. Many tropical birds and mammals disperse seeds. Their overhunting in forests can cause zoochorous trees to suffer from reduced seed dispersal. Yet how these reductions in seed dispersal influence tree abundance and population dynamics remains unclear. Reproductive parameters in long-lived organisms often have very low elasticities; indeed the demographic importance of seed dispersal is an open question. We asked how variation in hunting pressure across four national parks with seasonal forest in northern Thailand influenced the relative abundance of gibbons, muntjac deer, and sambar deer, the sole dispersers of seeds of the canopy tree Choerospondias axillaris. We quantified how variation in disperser numbers affected C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance across the four parks. We then used these data in a structured population model based on vital rates measured in Khao Yai National Park (where poaching pressure is minimal) to explore how variation in illegal hunting pressure might influence C. axillaris population growth and persistence. Densities of the mammals varied strongly across the parks, from relatively high in Khao Yai to essentially zero in Doi Suthep-Pui. Levels of C. axillaris seed dispersal and seedling abundance positively tracked mammal density. If hunting in Khao Yai were to increase to the levels seen in the other parks, C. axillaris population growth rate would decline, but only slightly. Extinction of C. axillaris is a real possibility, but may take many decades. Recent and ongoing extirpations of vertebrates in many tropical forests could be creating an extinction debt for zoochorous trees whose vulnerability is belied by their current abundance.