POCUS-first for nephrolithiasis: A Monte Carlo simulation illustrating cost savings, LOS reduction, and preventable radiation.

OBJECTIVES: Non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) is the gold standard for nephrolithiasis evaluation in the emergency department (ED). However, Choosing Wisely guidelines recommend against ordering NCCT for patients with suspected nephrolithiasis who are <50 years old with a history of kidney stones. Our primary objective was to estimate the national annual cost savings from using a point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS)-first approach for patients with suspected nephrolithiasis meeting Choosing Wisely criteria. Our secondary objectives were to estimate reductions in ED length of stay (LOS) and preventable radiation exposure. METHODS: We created a Monte Carlo simulation using available estimates for the frequency of ED visits for nephrolithiasis and eligibility for a POCUS-first approach. The study population included all ED patients diagnosed with nephrolithiasis. Based on 1000 trials of our simulation, we estimated national cost savings in averted advanced imaging from this strategy. We applied the same model to estimate the reduction in ED LOS and preventable radiation exposure. RESULTS: Using this model, we estimate a POCUS-first approach for evaluating nephrolithiasis meeting Choosing Wisely guidelines to save a mean (±SD) of $16.5 million (±$2.1 million) by avoiding 159,000 (±18,000) NCCT scans annually. This resulted in a national cumulative decrease of 166,000 (±165,000) annual bed-hours in ED LOS. Additionally, this resulted in a national cumulative reduction in radiation exposure of 1.9 million person-mSv, which could potentially prevent 232 (±81) excess cancer cases and 118 (±43) excess cancer deaths annually. CONCLUSION: If adopted widely, a POCUS-first approach for suspected nephrolithiasis in patients meeting Choosing Wisely criteria could yield significant national cost savings and a reduction in ED LOS and preventable radiation exposure. Further research is needed to explore the barriers to widespread adoption of this clinical workflow as well as the benefits of a POCUS-first approach in other patient populations.

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals.

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.

Access to effective antimicrobials: a worldwide challenge.

Recent years have seen substantial improvements in life expectancy and access to antimicrobials, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, but increasing pathogen resistance to antimicrobials threatens to roll back this progress. Resistant organisms in health-care and community settings pose a threat to survival rates from serious infections, including neonatal sepsis and health-care-associated infections, and limit the potential health benefits from surgeries, transplants, and cancer treatment. The challenge of simultaneously expanding appropriate access to antimicrobials, while restricting inappropriate access, particularly to expensive, newer generation antimicrobials, is unique in global health and requires new approaches to financing and delivering health care and a one-health perspective on the connections between pathogen transmission in animals and humans. Here, we describe the importance of effective antimicrobials. We assess the disease burden caused by limited access to antimicrobials, attributable to resistance to antimicrobials, and the potential effect of vaccines in restricting the need for antibiotics.

The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.

Point-of-care ultrasound-first for the evaluation of small bowel obstruction: National cost savings, length of stay reduction, and preventable radiation exposure.

OBJECTIVES: Computed tomography (CT) has long been the gold standard in diagnosing patients with suspected small bowel obstruction (SBO). Recently, point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) has demonstrated comparable test characteristics to CT imaging for the diagnosis of SBO. Our primary objective was to estimate the annual national cost saving impact of a POCUS-first approach for the evaluation of SBO. Our secondary objectives were to estimate the reduction in radiation exposure and emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS). METHODS: We created and ran 1000 trials of a Monte Carlo simulation. The study population included all patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain who were diagnosed with SBO. Using this simulation, we modeled the national annual cost savings in averted advanced imaging from a POCUS-first approach for SBO. The model assumes that all patients who require surgery or have non-diagnostic POCUS exams undergo CT imaging. The model also conservatively assumes that a subset of patients with diagnostic POCUS exams undergo additional confirmatory CT imaging. We used the same Monte Carlo model to estimate the reduction in radiation exposure and total ED bed hours saved. RESULTS: A POCUS-first approach for diagnosing SBO was estimated to save a mean (±SD) of $30.1 million (±8.9 million) by avoiding 143,000 (±31,000) CT scans. This resulted in a national cumulative decrease of 507,000 bed hours (±268,000) in ED LOS. The reduction in radiation exposure to patients could potentially prevent 195 (±56) excess annual cancer cases and 98 (±28) excess annual cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: If adopted widely and used consistently, a POCUS-first algorithm for SBO could yield substantial national cost savings by averting advanced imaging, decreasing ED LOS, and reducing unnecessary radiation exposure in patients. Clinical decision tools are needed to better identify which patients would most benefit from CT imaging for SBO in the ED.

Radiation risk issues in recurrent imaging.

Millions of patients benefit from medical imaging every single day. However, we have entered an unprecedented era in imaging practices wherein 1 out of 125 patients can be exposed to effective dose >50 mSv from a single CT exam and 3 out of 10,000 patients undergoing CT exams could potentially receive cumulative effective doses > 100 mSv in a single day. Recurrent imaging with CT, fluoroscopically guided interventions, and hybrid imaging modalities such as positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) is more prevalent today than ever before. Presently, we do not know the cumulative doses that patients may be receiving across all imaging modalities combined. Furthermore, patients with diseases with longer life expectancies are being exposed to high doses of radiation enabling radiation effects to manifest over a longer time period. The emphasis in the past on improving justification of imaging and optimization of technique and practice has proved useful. While that must continue, the current situation requires imaging device manufacturers to urgently develop imaging technologies that are safer for patients as high doses have been observed in patients where imaging has been justified through clinical decision-support and optimized by keeping doses below the national benchmark doses. There is a need to have a critical look at the fundamental principles of radiation protection as cumulative doses are likely to increase in the coming years.

Clinical Features vs CT Findings to Estimate Need for Surgery in Small Bowel Obstruction.

This comparative effectiveness research compares the ability of clinical features vs clinical features with computed tomography (CT) to estimate the need for small bowel obstruction surgery.

The Prevalence of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase-Producing Multidrug-Resistant Escherichia Coli in Poultry Chickens and Variation According to Farming Practices in Punjab, India.

BACKGROUND: Agricultural use of antimicrobials in subtherapeutic concentrations is increasing in response to the rising demand for food animal products worldwide. In India, the use of antimicrobials in food animal production is unregulated. Research suggests that many clinically important antimicrobials are used indiscriminately. This is the largest study to date in India that surveys poultry production to test for antimicrobial resistance and the occurrence of extended-spectrum ß-lactamases (ESBLs) modulated by farming and managerial practices. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to survey poultry production for resistance to eleven clinically relevant antimicrobials and phenotypic occurrence of ESBLs as modulated by farming and managerial practices. METHODS: Eighteen poultry farms from Punjab were surveyed, and 1,556 Escherichia coli isolates from 530 birds were tested for susceptibility to 11 antimicrobials using the disk diffusion method and validated using VITEK 2 (bioMérieux, Marcy-L'Étoile, France). Samples from 510 of these birds were phenotypically tested for ESBL production using the combination disk method and confirmed using VITEK 2. Generalized linear mixed models were used to infer differences in resistance profiles associated with different farming practices and facility types. RESULTS: Resistance profiles were significantly different between broiler and layer farms. Broiler farms were 2.2 [ampicillin (AMP), p=0.017] to 23 [nalidixic acid (NX), p<0.001] times more likely to harbor resistant E. coli strains than layer farms. Adjusting for farm type (broiler vs. layer), the odds of resistance (although not statistically significant) to all antimicrobials except nitrofurantoin (NIT) were higher in independent facilities (IUs) as compared to contracted facilities (CFs). Increased prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR; 94% compared to 60% in layers), including prevalence of ESBL-producing strains (87% compared to 42% in layers), was observed in broiler farms. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that unregulated use of clinically relevant antimicrobials in Indian broiler and layer farms may contribute to the emergence of resistance and support the need to curb the nontherapeutic use of medically important antimicrobials in food animal production. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP292.