COVID-19 Preliminary Case Series: Characteristics of EMS Encounters with Linked Hospital Diagnoses.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the prehospital presentation, assessment, or treatment of patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of this preliminary report is to describe prehospital encounters for patients with a COVID-19 hospital diagnosis and/or COVID-19 EMS suspicion versus those with neither a hospital diagnosis nor EMS suspicion of the disease. METHODS: This case series evaluated electronic patient care records from EMS agencies participating in a large national bi-directional data exchange. All records for 9-1-1 responses between March 1 and April 19, 2020, resulting in transport to a hospital, with at least one ICD-10 outcome returned via the data exchange were included. Hospital ICD-10 codes used to determine COVID-19 diagnoses included B97.2, B97.21, B97.29, B34.2, and U07.1. COVID-19 EMS suspicion was defined as a documented EMS primary or secondary impression of COVID-19, or indication of COVID-19 suspicion in the prehospital free-text narrative. Comparisons were stratified by COVID-19 hospital diagnosis and COVID-19 EMS suspicion. Descriptive and comparative statistics are presented. RESULTS: There were 84,540 EMS patient records with linked hospital ICD-10 codes included. Of those, 814 (1%) patients had a COVID-19 hospital diagnosis. Overall, COVID-19 EMS suspicion was documented for 3,204 (4%) patients. A COVID-19 EMS suspicion was documented for 636 (78%) of hospital diagnosed COVID-19 patients. Those with COVID-19 hospital diagnoses were more likely to present with tachycardia, tachypnea, hypoxia, and fever during the EMS encounter. EMS responses for patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were also more likely to originate from a skilled nursing/assisted living facility. EMS PPE (eye protection, mask, or gown) use was more frequently documented on records of patients who had hospital diagnosed COVID-19. CONCLUSION: In this large sample of prehospital encounters, EMS COVID-19 suspicion demonstrated sensitivity of 78% and positive predictive value of 20% compared with hospital ICD-10 codes. These data indicate that EMS suspicion alone is insufficient to determine appropriate utilization of PPE.

Initial prehospital Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) to predict outcomes for COVID-19 patients.

OBJECTIVE: The Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) has not been widely studied for use in predicting outcomes of COVID-19 patients encountered in the prehospital setting. This study aimed to determine whether the first prehospital REMS could predict emergency department and hospital dispositions for COVID-19 patients transported by emergency medical services. METHODS: This retrospective study used linked prehospital and hospital records from the ESO Data Collaborative for all 911-initiated transports of patients with hospital COVID-19 diagnoses from July 1 to December 31, 2020. We calculated REMS with the first recorded prehospital values for each component. We calculated area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for emergency department (ED) mortality, ED discharge, hospital mortality, and hospital length of stay (LOS). We determined optimal REMS cut-points using test characteristic curves. RESULTS: Among 13,830 included COVID-19 patients, median REMS was 6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 5-9). ED mortality was <1% (n = 80). REMS ≥9 predicted ED death (AUROC 0.79). One-quarter of patients (n = 3,419) were discharged from the ED with an optimal REMS cut-point of ≤5 (AUROC 0.72). Eighteen percent (n = 1,742) of admitted patients died. REMS ≥8 optimally predicted hospital mortality (AUROC 0.72). Median hospital LOS was 8.3 days (IQR: 4.1-14.8 days). REMS ≥7 predicted hospitalizations ≥3 days (AUROC 0.62). CONCLUSION: Initial prehospital REMS was modestly predictive of ED and hospital dispositions for patients with COVID-19. Prediction was stronger for outcomes more proximate to the first set of emergency medical services (EMS) vital signs. These findings highlight the potential value of first prehospital REMS for risk stratification of individual patients and system surveillance for resource planning related to COVID-19.

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: an essential tool where the burden is greatest?

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics and suggest potential solutions.