Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience.

Remote coral reefs are thought to be more resilient to climate change due to their isolation from local stressors like fishing and pollution. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the relationship between local human influence and coral community resilience. Surprisingly, we found no relationship between human influence and resistance to disturbance and some evidence that areas with greater human development may recover from disturbance faster than their more isolated counterparts. Our results suggest remote coral reefs are imperiled by climate change, like so many other geographically isolated ecosystems, and are unlikely to serve as effective biodiversity arks. Only drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will ensure coral survival. Our results also indicate that some reefs close to large human populations were relatively resilient. Focusing research and conservation resources on these more accessible locations has the potential to provide new insights and maximize conservation outcomes.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Living shorelines can enhance the nursery role of threatened estuarine habitats.

Coastal ecosystems provide numerous services, such as nutrient cycling, climate change amelioration, and habitat provision for commercially valuable organisms. Ecosystem functions and processes are modified by human activities locally and globally, with degradation of coastal ecosystems by development and climate change occurring at unprecedented rates. The demand for coastal defense strategies against storms and sea-level rise has increased with human population growth and development along coastlines world-wide, even while that population growth has reduced natural buffering of shorelines. Shoreline hardening, a common coastal defense strategy that includes the use of seawalls and bulkheads (vertical walls constructed of concrete, wood, vinyl, or steel), is resulting in a "coastal squeeze" on estuarine habitats. In contrast to hardening, living shorelines, which range from vegetation plantings to a combination of hard structures and plantings, can be deployed to restore or enhance multiple ecosystem services normally delivered by naturally vegetated shores. Although hundreds of living shoreline projects have been implemented in the United States alone, few studies have evaluated their effectiveness in sustaining or enhancing ecosystem services relative to naturally vegetated shorelines and hardened shorelines. We quantified the effectiveness of (1) sills with landward marsh (a type of living shoreline that combines marsh plantings with an offshore low-profile breakwater), (2) natural salt marsh shorelines (control marshes), and (3) unvegetated bulkheaded shores in providing habitat for fish and crustaceans (nekton). Sills supported higher abundances and species diversity of fishes than unvegetated habitat adjacent to bulkheads, and even control marshes. Sills also supported higher cover of filter-feeding bivalves (a food resource and refuge habitat for nekton) than bulkheads or control marshes. These ecosystem-service enhancements were detected on shores with sills three or more years after construction, but not before. Sills provide added structure and may provide better refuges from predation and greater opportunity to use available food resources for nekton than unvegetated bulkheaded shores or control marshes. Our study shows that unlike shoreline hardening, living shorelines can enhance some ecosystem services provided by marshes, such as provision of nursery habitat.

Exploring the role of temperature in the ocean through metabolic scaling.

Temperature imposes a constraint on the rates and outcomes of ecological processes that determine community- and ecosystem-level patterns. The application of metabolic scaling theory has advanced our understanding of the influence of temperature on pattern and process in marine communities. Metabolic scaling theory uses the fundamental and ubiquitous patterns of temperature-dependent metabolism to predict how environmental temperature influences patterns and processes at higher levels of biological organization. Here, we outline some of these predictions to review recent advances and illustrate how scaling theory might be applied to new challenges. For example, warming can alter species interactions and food-web structure and can also reduce total animal biomass supportable by a given amount of primary production by increasing animal metabolism and energetic demand. Additionally, within a species, larval development is faster in warmer water, potentially influencing dispersal and other demographic processes like population connectivity and gene flow. These predictions can be extended further to address major questions in marine ecology, and present an opportunity for conceptual unification of marine ecological research across levels of biological organization. Drawing on work by ecologists and oceanographers over the last century, a metabolic scaling approach represents a promising way forward for applying ecological understanding to basic questions as well as conservation challenges.

Stochastic dynamics of a warmer Great Barrier Reef.

Pressure on natural communities from human activities continues to increase. Even unique ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), that until recently were considered near-pristine and well-protected, are showing signs of rapid degradation. We collated recent (1996-2006) spatiotemporal relationships between benthic community composition on the GBR and environmental variables (ocean temperature and local threats resulting from human activity). We built multivariate models of the effects of these variables on short-term dynamics, and developed an analytical approach to study their long-term consequences. We used this approach to study the effects of ocean warming under different levels of local threat. Observed short-term changes in benthic community structure (e.g., declining coral cover) were associated with ocean temperature (warming) and local threats. Our model projected that, in the long-term, coral cover of less than 10% was not implausible. With increasing temperature and/or local threats, corals were initially replaced by sponges, gorgonians, and other taxa, with an eventual moderately high probability of domination (> 50%) by macroalgae when temperature increase was greatest (e.g., 3.5 degrees C of warming). Our approach to modeling community dynamics, based on multivariate statistical models, enabled us to project how environmental change (and thus local and international policy decisions) will influence the future state of coral reefs. The same approach could be applied to other systems for which time series of ecological and environmental variables are available.

The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming.

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Foundation Species.

Marine foundation species are the biotic basis for many of the world's coastal ecosystems, providing structural habitat, food, and protection for myriad plants and animals as well as many ecosystem services. However, climate change poses a significant threat to foundation species and the ecosystems they support. We review the impacts of climate change on common marine foundation species, including corals, kelps, seagrasses, salt marsh plants, mangroves, and bivalves. It is evident that marine foundation species have already been severely impacted by several climate change drivers, often through interactive effects with other human stressors, such as pollution, overfishing, and coastal development. Despite considerable variation in geographical, environmental, and ecological contexts, direct and indirect effects of gradual warming and subsequent heatwaves have emerged as the most pervasive drivers of observed impact and potent threat across all marine foundation species, but effects from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and increased storminess are expected to increase. Documented impacts include changes in the genetic structures, physiology, abundance, and distribution of the foundation species themselves and changes to their interactions with other species, with flow-on effects to associated communities, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. We discuss strategies to support marine foundation species into the Anthropocene, in order to increase their resilience and ensure the persistence of the ecosystem services they provide.

Inter- and intra-specific pan-genomes of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato: genome stability and adaptive radiation.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is caused by spirochete bacteria from the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (B. burgdorferi s.l.) species complex. To reconstruct the evolution of B. burgdorferi s.l. and identify the genomic basis of its human virulence, we compared the genomes of 23 B. burgdorferi s.l. isolates from Europe and the United States, including B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (B. burgdorferi s.s., 14 isolates), B. afzelii (2), B. garinii (2), B. "bavariensis" (1), B. spielmanii (1), B. valaisiana (1), B. bissettii (1), and B. "finlandensis" (1). RESULTS: Robust B. burgdorferi s.s. and B. burgdorferi s.l. phylogenies were obtained using genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms, despite recombination. Phylogeny-based pan-genome analysis showed that the rate of gene acquisition was higher between species than within species, suggesting adaptive speciation. Strong positive natural selection drives the sequence evolution of lipoproteins, including chromosomally-encoded genes 0102 and 0404, cp26-encoded ospC and b08, and lp54-encoded dbpA, a07, a22, a33, a53, a65. Computer simulations predicted rapid adaptive radiation of genomic groups as population size increases. CONCLUSIONS: Intra- and inter-specific pan-genome sizes of B. burgdorferi s.l. expand linearly with phylogenetic diversity. Yet gene-acquisition rates in B. burgdorferi s.l. are among the lowest in bacterial pathogens, resulting in high genome stability and few lineage-specific genes. Genome adaptation of B. burgdorferi s.l. is driven predominantly by copy-number and sequence variations of lipoprotein genes. New genomic groups are likely to emerge if the current trend of B. burgdorferi s.l. population expansion continues.

Disturbance intensification is altering the trait composition of Caribbean reefs, locking them into a low functioning state.

Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying natural disturbance regimes, which negatively affects some species, while benefiting others. This could alter the trait composition of ecological communities and influence resilience to disturbance. We investigated how the frequency and intensification of the regional storm regime (and likely other disturbances) is altering coral species composition and in turn resistance and recovery. We developed regional databases of coral cover and composition (3144 reef locations from 1970 to 2017) and of the path and strength of cyclonic storms in the region (including 10,058 unique storm-reef intersections). We found that total living coral cover declined steadily through 2017 (the median annual loss rate was ~ 0.25% per year). Our results also indicate that despite the observed increase in the intensity of Atlantic cyclonic storms, their effect on coral cover has decreased markedly. This could be due in part to selection for disturbance-resistant taxa in response to the intensifying disturbance regime. We found that storms accelerated the loss of threatened acroporid corals but had no measurable effect on the cover of more resilient "weedy" corals, thereby increasing their relative cover. Although resistance to disturbance has increased, recovery rates have slowed due to the dominance of small, slow-growing species. This feedback loop is locking coral communities into a low-functioning state dominated by weedy species with limited ecological or societal value.

Data-driven models for regional coral-reef dynamics.

Coral reefs have been affected by natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Coral cover has declined on many reefs, and macroalgae have increased on some. The existence of alternative stable states with high or low coral cover has been widely debated, but not clearly established. We evaluate the evidence for alternative stable states in benthic coral-reef dynamics in the Caribbean, Kenya and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), using stochastic semi-parametric models based on large numbers of time series of cover of hard corals, macroalgae and other components. Only the GBR showed a consistent short-term regional decline in coral cover. There was no evidence for regional increases in macroalgae. The equilibrium distributions of our models were close to recently observed distributions, and differed among regions. In all three regions, the equilibrium distributions were unimodal rather than bimodal, and thus did not suggest the existence of alternative stable states on a regional scale, under current conditions.

Warming and resource availability shift food web structure and metabolism.

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change.

Climate change and marine life.

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.

Propagule supply controls grazer community structure and primary production in a benthic marine ecosystem.

Early theories of species diversity proposed that communities at equilibrium are saturated with species. However, experiments in plant communities suggest that many communities are unsaturated and species richness can be increased by adding propagules of new species. We experimentally tested for community saturation and measured the effects of propagule supply on community structure in a benthic marine system. We manipulated propagule supply (arrival of individuals of numerous species) of mobile grazers in experimental mesocosms over multiple generations and, unlike previous tests, we examined the cascading effects of propagule supply on prey (macroalgae) biomass. We found little evidence for saturation, despite the absence of processes such as disturbance and predation that are thought to alleviate saturation in nature. Increasing propagule supply increased the total number of species and made rare species more abundant. Perhaps surprisingly, given the strong effect of propagule supply on species richness, supply-related changes in body size and composition suggest that competitive interactions remained important. Grazer supply also had strong cascading effects on primary production, possibly because of dietary complementarity modified by territorial behavior. Our results indicate that propagule supply can directly influence the diversity and composition of communities of mobile animals. Furthermore, the supply of consumer propagules can have strong indirect effects on prey and fundamental ecosystem properties.

Public awareness of seafood mislabeling.

A substantial portion of seafood is mislabeled, causing significant impacts to human health, the environment, the economy, and society. Despite the large scientific literature documenting seafood mislabeling the public's awareness of seafood mislabeling is unknown. We conducted an online survey to assess the public's awareness and perceptions of seafood mislabeling. Of the 1,216 respondents, 38% had never heard of seafood mislabeling and 49% were only 'vaguely familiar' with it. After being provided the definition of seafood mislabeling 95% had some degree of concern. Respondents were the most concerned about environmental impacts caused by seafood mislabeling and the least concerned about the social justice implications. Respondents who were also more concerned and familiar with seafood mislabeling stated that they would be more likely to purchase seafood from a vendor where the labeling was independently verified.

Twenty years of change in benthic communities across the Belizean Barrier Reef.

Disease, storms, ocean warming, and pollution have caused the mass mortality of reef-building corals across the Caribbean over the last four decades. Subsequently, stony corals have been replaced by macroalgae, bacterial mats, and invertebrates including soft corals and sponges, causing changes to the functioning of Caribbean reef ecosystems. Here we describe changes in the absolute cover of benthic reef taxa, including corals, gorgonians, sponges, and algae, at 15 fore-reef sites (12-15m depth) across the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR) from 1997 to 2016. We also tested whether Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), in which fishing was prohibited but likely still occurred, mitigated these changes. Additionally, we determined whether ocean-temperature anomalies (measured via satellite) or local human impacts (estimated using the Human Influence Index, HII) were related to changes in benthic community structure. We observed a reduction in the cover of reef-building corals, including the long-lived, massive corals Orbicella spp. (from 13 to 2%), and an increase in fleshy and corticated macroalgae across most sites. These and other changes to the benthic communities were unaffected by local protection. The covers of hard-coral taxa, including Acropora spp., Montastraea cavernosa, Orbicella spp., and Porites spp., were negatively related to the frequency of ocean-temperature anomalies. Only gorgonian cover was related, negatively, to our metric of the magnitude of local impacts (HII). Our results suggest that benthic communities along the BBR have experienced disturbances that are beyond the capacity of the current management structure to mitigate. We recommend that managers devote greater resources and capacity to enforcing and expanding existing marine protected areas and to mitigating local stressors, and most importantly, that government, industry, and the public act immediately to reduce global carbon emissions.

Food chain length and omnivory determine the stability of a marine subtidal food web.

1. Using a subtidal marine food web as a model system, we examined how food chain length (predators present or absent) and the prevalence of omnivory influenced temporal stability (and its components) of herbivores and plants. We held the density of top predators constant but manipulated their identity to generate a gradient in omnivory prevalence. 2. We measured temporal stability as the inverse of the coefficient of variation of abundance over time. Predators and omnivory could influence temporal stability through effects on abundance (the 'abundance' effect), summed variance across taxa (the 'portfolio effect') or summed covariances among taxa (the 'covariance effect'). 3. We found that increasing food chain length by predator addition destabilized aggregate herbivore abundance through their cascading effects on abundances. Thus, predators destabilized herbivores through the overyielding effect. We also found that the stability of herbivore abundance and microalgae declined with increasing prevalence of omnivory among top predators. Aggregate macroalgae was not affected, but the stability of one algal taxon increased with the prevalence of omnivory. 4. Our results suggest that herbivores are more sensitive than plants to changes in food web structure because of predator additions by invasion or deletions such as might occur via harvesting and habitat loss.

Mutualisms in a changing world: an evolutionary perspective.

Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1459-1474 ABSTRACT: There is growing concern that rapid environmental degradation threatens mutualistic interactions. Because mutualisms can bind species to a common fate, mutualism breakdown has the potential to expand and accelerate effects of global change on biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption. The current focus on the ecological dynamics of mutualism under global change has skirted fundamental evolutionary issues. Here, we develop an evolutionary perspective on mutualism breakdown to complement the ecological perspective, by focusing on three processes: (1) shifts from mutualism to antagonism, (2) switches to novel partners and (3) mutualism abandonment. We then identify the evolutionary factors that may make particular classes of mutualisms especially susceptible or resistant to breakdown and discuss how communities harbouring mutualisms may be affected by these evolutionary responses. We propose a template for evolutionary research on mutualism resilience and identify conservation approaches that may help conserve targeted mutualisms in the face of environmental change.

Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks.

Very little is known about how environmental changes such as increasing temperature affect disease dynamics in the ocean, especially at large spatial scales. We asked whether the frequency of warm temperature anomalies is positively related to the frequency of coral disease across 1,500 km of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We used a new high-resolution satellite dataset of ocean temperature and 6 y of coral disease and coral cover data from annual surveys of 48 reefs to answer this question. We found a highly significant relationship between the frequencies of warm temperature anomalies and of white syndrome, an emergent disease, or potentially, a group of diseases, of Pacific reef-building corals. The effect of temperature was highly dependent on coral cover because white syndrome outbreaks followed warm years, but only on high (>50%) cover reefs, suggesting an important role of host density as a threshold for outbreaks. Our results indicate that the frequency of temperature anomalies, which is predicted to increase in most tropical oceans, can increase the susceptibility of corals to disease, leading to outbreaks where corals are abundant.

Marketplace shrimp mislabeling in North Carolina.

Seafood mislabeling occurs in a wide range of seafood products worldwide, resulting in public distrust, economic fraud, and health risks for consumers. We quantified the extent of shrimp mislabeling in coastal and inland North Carolina. We used standard DNA barcoding procedures to determine the species identity of 106 shrimp sold as "local" by 60 vendors across North Carolina. Thirty-four percent of the purchased shrimp was mislabeled, and surprisingly the percentage did not differ significantly between coastal and inland counties. One third of product incorrectly marketed as "local" was in fact whiteleg shrimp: an imported and globally farmed species native to the eastern Pacific, not found in North Carolina waters. In addition to the negative ecosystem consequences of shrimp farming (e.g., the loss of mangrove forests and the coastal buffering they provide), North Carolina fishers-as with local fishers elsewhere-are negatively impacted when vendors label farmed, frozen, and imported shrimp as local, fresh, and wild-caught.

A high proportion of red snapper sold in North Carolina is mislabeled.

Seafood mislabeling occurs when a market label is inaccurate, primarily in terms of species identity, but also regarding weight, geographic origin, or other characteristics. This widespread problem allows cheaper or illegally-caught species to be marketed as species desirable to consumers. Previous studies have identified red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) as one of the most frequently mislabeled seafood species in the United States. To quantify how common mislabeling of red snapper is across North Carolina, the Seafood Forensics class at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill used DNA barcoding to analyze samples sold as "red snapper" from restaurants, seafood markets, and grocery stores purchased in ten counties. Of 43 samples successfully sequenced and identified, 90.7% were mislabeled. Only one grocery store chain (of four chains tested) accurately labeled red snapper. The mislabeling rate for restaurants and seafood markets was 100%. Vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens) and tilapia (Oreochromis aureus and O. niloticus) were the species most frequently substituted for red snapper (13 of 39 mislabeled samples for both taxa, or 26 of 39 mislabeled total). This study builds on previous mislabeling research by collecting samples of a specific species in a confined geographic region, allowing local vendors and policy makers to better understand the scope of red snapper mislabeling in North Carolina. This methodology is also a model for other academic institutions to engage undergraduate researchers in mislabeling data collection, sample processing, and analysis.