Correlation of Pediatric Surgical Infrastructure With Clinical and Economic Outcomes: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: A significant burden of unmet pediatric surgical disease exists in low- and middle-income countries. We sought to assess the associations between the installation of a pediatric operating room (OR) and clinical and economic outcomes for families with children in Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed of children who underwent elective surgery in a tertiary-level Ethiopian public hospital, comparing patient outcomes before and after OR installation in August 2019. Clinical data were collected via chart review, and an inpatient economic survey was administered to patient caregivers. Interrupted time series analysis investigated trends in surgical volume over time. The relative economic benefit was determined by comparing the patients' household income to the monetary health benefit gained using the value of statistical life method. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred and ninety-six patients were included from August 2018 to July 2022. Surgery averted 20,541 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cumulatively or 17 DALYs per patient. Monthly case volume and DALYs averted significantly increased postinstallation. The median annual household income of the economic survey responders (n = 339) was $1337 (IQR 669-2592). 27.7% (n = 94/339) lived in extreme poverty, and 41.3% (n = 140/339) experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure. Net monetary health benefit was $29.3 million or $26,646 per patient. The ratio of net monetary health benefit to household annual income was 60:1. CONCLUSIONS: Installing a pediatric OR in a public Ethiopian hospital ensures increased access to surgery for those most impoverished in Ethiopia and improves equitable access to surgical care. Greater investment in expanding pediatric surgical infrastructure can help address global inequities in child health.

Pediatric Surgical Waitlist in Low Middle Income Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease-19 led to a significant reduction in surgery worldwide. Studies, however, of the effect on surgical volume for pediatric patients in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are limited. METHODS: A survey was developed to estimate waitlists in LMICs for priority surgical conditions in children. The survey was piloted and revised before it was deployed over email to 19 surgeons. Pediatric surgeons at 15 different sites in eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Ecuador completed the survey from February 2021 to June 2021. The survey included the total number of children awaiting surgery and estimates for specific conditions. Respondents were also able to add additional procedures. RESULTS: Public hospitals had longer wait times than private facilities. The median waitlist was 90 patients, and the median wait time was 2 mo for elective surgeries. CONCLUSIONS: Lengthy surgical wait times affect surgical access in LMICs. Coronavirus disease-19 had been associated with surgical delays around the world, exacerbating existing surgical backlogs. Our results revealed significant delays for elective, urgent, and emergent cases across sub-Saharan Africa. Stakeholders should consider approaches to scale the limited surgical and perioperative resources in LMICs, create mitigation strategies for future pandemics, and establish ways to monitor waitlists on an ongoing basis.

Patterns and drivers of vector-borne microparasites in a classic metapopulation.

Many organisms live in fragmented populations, which has profound consequences on the dynamics of associated parasites. Metapopulation theory offers a canonical framework for predicting the effects of fragmentation on spatiotemporal host­parasite dynamics. However, empirical studies of parasites in classical metapopulations remain rare, particularly for vector-borne parasites. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal patterns and possible drivers of infection probability for several ectoparasites (fleas, Ixodes trianguliceps and Ixodes ricinus) and vector-borne microparasites (Babesia microti, Bartonella spp., Hepatozoon spp.) in a classically functioning metapopulation of water vole hosts. Results suggest that the relative importance of vector or host dynamics on microparasite infection probabilities is related to parasite life-histories. Bartonella, a microparasite with a fast life-history, was positively associated with both host and vector abundances at several spatial and temporal scales. In contrast, B. microti, a tick-borne parasite with a slow life-history, was only associated with vector dynamics. Further, we provide evidence that life-history shaped parasite dynamics, including occupancy and colonization rates, in the metapopulation. Lastly, our findings were consistent with the hypothesis that landscape connectivity was determined by distance-based dispersal of the focal hosts. We provide essential empirical evidence that contributes to the development of a comprehensive theory of metapopulation processes of vector-borne parasites.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Pediatric Surgical Volume in Four Low- and Middle-Income Country Hospitals: Insights from an Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgical care delivery in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has been challenging to assess due to a lack of data. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on pediatric surgical volumes at four LMIC hospitals. METHODS: Retrospective and prospective pediatric surgical data collected at hospitals in Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Nigeria, and Zambia were reviewed from January 2019 to April 2021. Changes in surgical volume were assessed using interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: 6078 total operations were assessed. Before the pandemic, overall surgical volume increased by 21 cases/month (95% CI 14 to 28, p < 0.001). From March to April 2020, the total surgical volume dropped by 32%, or 110 cases (95% CI - 196 to - 24, p = 0.014). Patients during the pandemic were younger (2.7 vs. 3.3 years, p < 0.001) and healthier (ASA I 69% vs. 66%, p = 0.003). Additionally, they experienced lower rates of post-operative sepsis (0.3% vs 1.5%, p < 0.001), surgical site infections (1.3% vs 5.8%, p < 0.001), and mortality (1.6% vs 3.1%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, children's surgery in LMIC saw a sharp decline in total surgical volume by a third in the month following March 2020, followed by a slow recovery afterward. Patients were healthier with better post-operative outcomes during the pandemic, implying a widening disparity gap in surgical access and exacerbating challenges in addressing the large unmet burden of pediatric surgical disease in LMICs with a need for immediate mitigation strategies.

Development and Internal-external Validation of a Post-operative Mortality Risk Calculator for Pediatric Surgical Patients in Low- and Middle- Income Countries Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a mortality risk algorithm for pediatric surgery patients treated at KidsOR sites in 14 low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: A SuperLearner machine learning algorithm was trained to predict post-operative mortality by hospital discharge using the retrospectively and prospectively collected KidsOR database including patients treated at 20 KidsOR sites from June 2018 to June 2023. Algorithm performance was evaluated by internal-external cross-validated AUC and calibration. FINDINGS: Of 23,905 eligible patients, 21,703 with discharge status recorded were included in the analysis, representing a post-operative mortality rate of 3.1% (671 mortality events). The candidate algorithm with the best cross-validated performance was an extreme gradient boosting model. The cross-validated AUC was 0.945 (95% CI 0.936 to 0.954) and cross-validated calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.06) and 0.05 (95% CI -0.10 to 0.21). For Super Learner models trained on all but one site and evaluated in the holdout site for sites with at least 25 mortality events, overall external validation AUC was 0.864 (95% CI 0.846 to 0.882) with calibration slope and intercept of 1.03 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.09) and 1.18 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.39). INTERPRETATION: The KidsOR post-operative mortality risk algorithm had outstanding cross-validated discrimination and strong cross-validated calibration. Across all external validation sites, discrimination of Super Learner models trained on the remaining sites was excellent, though re-calibration may be necessary prior to use at new sites. This model has the potential to inform clinical practice and guide resource allocation at KidsOR sites world-wide. TYPE OF STUDY AND LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Observational Study, Level III.

Cost-effectiveness of a pediatric operating room installation in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The unmet need for pediatric surgery imposes enormous health and economic consequences globally, predominantly shouldered by Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where children comprise almost half of the population. Lack of knowledge about the economic impact of improving pediatric surgical infrastructure in SSA inhibits the informed allocation of limited resources towards the most cost-effective interventions to bolster global surgery for children. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of installing and running two dedicated pediatric operating rooms (ORs) in a hospital in Nigeria with a pre-existing pediatric surgical service by constructing a decision tree model of pediatric surgical delivery at this facility over a year, comparing scenarios before and after the installation of the ORs, which were funded philanthropically. Health outcomes measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted were informed by the hospital's operative registry and prior literature. We adopted an all healthcare payor's perspective including costs incurred by the local healthcare system, the installation (funded by the charity), and patients' families. Costs were annualized and reported in 2021 United States dollars ($). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the annualized OR installation and operation were presented. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. We found that installing and operating two dedicated pediatric ORs averted 538 DALYs and cost $177,527 annually. The ICER of the ORs' installation and operation was $330 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 315-336) from the all healthcare payor's perspective. This ICER was well under the cost-effectiveness threshold of the country's half-GDP per capita in 2020 ($1043) and remained cost-effective in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Installation of additional dedicated pediatric operating rooms in Nigeria with pre-existing pediatric surgical capacity is therefore very cost-effective, supporting investment in children's global surgical infrastructure as an economically sound intervention.

Impact of new dedicated pediatric operating rooms on surgical volume in Africa: Evidence from Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: There is a large unmet children's surgical need in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examines the impact of installing dedicated pediatric operating rooms (ORs) on surgical volume at National Hospital Abuja, a hospital in Abuja, Nigeria. METHODS: A Non-Governmental Organization installed two pediatric ORs in August 2019. We assessed changes in volume from July 2018 to September 2021 using interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: Total surgical volume increased by 13 cases (p = 0.01) in 1-month post-installation, with elective operations making up 85% (p = 0.02) of cases. There was an increase in elective volume by about 1 case per month (p = 0.01) post-installation and the difference between pre-and post-trends was 1.23 cases per month (p = 0.009). The baseline volume of neonatal surgeries increased by 9 cases per month (p < 0.001) post-installation and this difference between pre- and post-trends was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Similarly, one-month post-installation, the cases classified as ASA class >2 increased by 14 (p < 0.001). There was no significant difference between pre-and post-installation mortality rate at about 2% per month. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant changes in surgical volume after OR installation, primarily composed of elective operations, reflecting an increased capacity to address surgical backlogs and/or perform more specialized surgeries. Despite a significant increase in volume and higher ASA class, there was no significant difference in mortality. This study supports the installation of surgical infrastructure in LMICs to strengthen capacity without increasing postoperative mortality.

Out-of-pocket costs and catastrophic healthcare expenditure for families of children requiring surgery in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-pocket healthcare costs leading to catastrophic healthcare expenditure pose a financial threat for families of children undergoing surgery in Sub-Saharan African countries, where universal healthcare coverage is often insufficient. METHODS: A prospective clinical and socioeconomic data collection tool was used in African hospitals with dedicated pediatric operating rooms installed philanthropically. Clinical data were collected via chart review and socioeconomic data from families. The primary indicator of economic burden was the proportion of families with catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Secondary indicators included the percentage who borrowed money, sold possessions, forfeited wages, and lost a job secondary to their child's surgery. Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify predictors of catastrophic healthcare expenditure. RESULTS: In all, 2,296 families of pediatric surgical patients from 6 countries were included. The median annual income was $1,000 (interquartile range 308-2,563), whereas the median out-of-pocket cost was $60 (interquartile range 26-174). Overall, 39.9% (n = 915) families incurred catastrophic healthcare expenditure, 23.3% (n = 533) borrowed money, 3.8% (n = 88%) sold possessions, 26.4% (n = 604) forfeited wages, and 2.3% (n = 52) lost a job because of the child's surgery. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure was associated with older age, emergency cases, need for transfusion, reoperation, antibiotics, and longer length of stay, whereas the subgroup analysis found insurance to be protective (odds ratio 0.22, P = .002). CONCLUSION: A full 40% of families of children in sub-Saharan Africa who undergo surgery incur catastrophic healthcare expenditure, shouldering economic consequences such as forfeited wages and debt. Intensive resource utilization and reduced insurance coverage in older children may contribute to a higher likelihood of catastrophic healthcare expenditure and can be insurance targets for policymakers.

Use of the Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions (STOPP) in older people admitted to an Australian hospital.

AIMS: To determine the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in older people aged 65 years and over who were admitted to hospital, and to examine the medications and medication classes that comprised these PIMs with use of the Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions. METHOD: Using a retrospective clinical audit design, the medical records of 100 older patients were randomly selected and examined for the prevalence and characteristics of PIMs. The audit was undertaken of patients admitted over a 12-month period to an Australian public teaching hospital. RESULTS: In total, 92 individual occurrences of PIMs were detected, and 54 patients had at least one PIM. The most common type of PIM experienced related to prescribed medications that adversely affected individuals who were prone to falls. CONCLUSION: Many older patients experienced a PIM during their hospital admission, where the risk of an adverse event could outweigh the clinical benefit.

Scalable stacked array piezoelectric deformable mirror for astronomy and laser processing applications.

A prototype of a scalable and potentially low-cost stacked array piezoelectric deformable mirror (SA-PDM) with 35 active elements is presented in this paper. This prototype is characterized by a 2 µm maximum actuator stroke, a 1.4 µm mirror sag (measured for a 14 mm × 14 mm area of the unpowered SA-PDM), and a ±200 nm hysteresis error. The initial proof of concept experiments described here show that this mirror can be successfully used for shaping a high power laser beam in order to improve laser machining performance. Various beam shapes have been obtained with the SA-PDM and examples of laser machining with the shaped beams are presented.