Surgically Correctable Congenital Anomalies: Reducing Morbidity and Mortality in the First 8000 Days of Life.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We aimed to review the common surgically correctable congenital anomalies with recent updates on the global disease burden and identify the factors affecting morbidity and mortality. METHOD: A literature review was done to assess the burden of surgical congenital anomalies with emphasis on those that present within the first 8000 days of life. The various patterns of diseases were analyzed in both low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and high-income countries (HIC). RESULTS: Surgical problems such as digestive congenital anomalies, congenital heart disease and neural tube defects are now seen more frequently. The burden of disease weighs more heavily on LMIC. Cleft lip and palate has gained attention and appropriate treatment within many countries, and its care has been strengthened by global surgical partnerships. Antenatal scans and timely diagnosis are important factors affecting morbidity and mortality. The frequency of pregnancy termination following prenatal diagnosis of a congenital anomaly is lower in many LMIC than in HIC. CONCLUSION: Congenital heart disease and neural tube defects are the most common congenital surgical diseases; however, easily treatable gastrointestinal anomalies are underdiagnosed due to the invisible nature of the condition. Current healthcare systems in most LMICs are still unprepared to tackle the burden of disease caused by congenital anomalies. Increased investment in surgical services is needed.

Routine Pediatric Surgical Emergencies: Incidence, Morbidity, and Mortality During the 1st 8000 Days of Life-A Narrative Review.

BACKGROUND: Many potentially treatable non-congenital and non-traumatic surgical conditions can occur during the first 8000 days of life and an estimated 85% of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) will develop one before 15 years old. This review summarizes the common routine surgical emergencies in children from LMICs and their effects on morbidity and mortality. METHODS: A narrative review was undertaken to assess the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes of common surgical emergencies that present within the first 8000 days (or 21.9 years) of life in LMICs. Available data on pediatric surgical emergency care in LMICs were aggregated. RESULTS: Outside of trauma, acute appendicitis, ileal perforation secondary to typhoid fever, and intestinal obstruction from intussusception and hernias continue to be the most common abdominal emergencies among children in LMICs. Musculoskeletal infections also contribute significantly to the surgical burden in children. These "neglected" conditions disproportionally affect children in LMICs and are due to delays in seeking care leading to late presentation and preventable complications. Pediatric surgical emergencies also necessitate heavy resource utilization in LMICs, where healthcare systems are already under strain. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in care and resource limitations in LMIC healthcare systems are key contributors to the complicated and emergent presentation of pediatric surgical disease. Timely access to surgery can not only prevent long-term impairments but also preserve the impact of public health interventions and decrease costs in the overall healthcare system.

Estimates of Treatable Deaths Within the First 20 Years of Life from Scaling Up Surgical Care at First-Level Hospitals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Surgical care is an important, yet often neglected component of child health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examines the potential impact of scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals in LMICs within the first 20 years of life. METHODS: Epidemiological data from the global burden of disease 2019 Study and a counterfactual method developed for the disease control priorities; 3rd Edition were used to estimate the number of treatable deaths in the under 20 year age group if surgical care could be scaled up at first-level hospitals. Our model included three digestive diseases, four maternal and neonatal conditions, and seven common traumatic injuries. RESULTS: An estimated 314,609 (95% UI, 239,619-402,005) deaths per year in the under 20 year age group could be averted if surgical care were scaled up at first-level hospitals in LMICs. Most of the treatable deaths are in the under-5 year age group (80.9%) and relates to improved obstetrical care and its effect on reducing neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Injuries are the leading cause of treatable deaths after age 5 years. Sixty-one percent of the treatable deaths occur in lower middle-income countries. Overall, scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals could avert 5·1% of the total deaths in children and adolescents under 20 years of age in LMICs per year. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the capacity of surgical services at first-level hospitals in LMICs has the potential to avert many deaths within the first 20 years of life.

World Gastroenterology Organisation Global Guidelines: Management of Strongyloidiasis February 2018-Compact Version>.

Strongyloides stercoralis is a soil-transmitted helminth, but it has a unique life cycle that can be completed in the human host, in a process known as autoinfection. Worldwide, the burden of disease is substantial (300 to 400 million infections). Strongyloidiasis is mainly prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, but there is as yet no global public health strategy for controlling the parasite.

Investment in child and adolescent health and development: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd Edition.

The realisation of human potential for development requires age-specific investment throughout the 8000 days of childhood and adolescence. Focus on the first 1000 days is an essential but insufficient investment. Intervention is also required in three later phases: the middle childhood growth and consolidation phase (5-9 years), when infection and malnutrition constrain growth, and mortality is higher than previously recognised; the adolescent growth spurt (10-14 years), when substantial changes place commensurate demands on good diet and health; and the adolescent phase of growth and consolidation (15-19 years), when new responses are needed to support brain maturation, intense social engagement, and emotional control. Two cost-efficient packages, one delivered through schools and one focusing on later adolescence, would provide phase-specific support across the life cycle, securing the gains of investment in the first 1000 days, enabling substantial catch-up from early growth failure, and leveraging improved learning from concomitant education investments.

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition.

The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

Economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a systematic review of economic evaluations that has been conducted for onchocerciasis interventions, to summarise current key knowledge and to identify research gaps. METHOD: A systematic review of the literature was conducted on the 8th of August 2018 using the PubMed (MEDLINE) and ISI Web of Science electronic databases. No date or language stipulations were applied to the searches. RESULTS: We identified 14 primary studies reporting the results of economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions, seven of which were cost-effectiveness analyses. The studies identified used a variety of different approaches to estimate the costs of the investigated interventions/programmes. Originally, the studies only quantified the benefits associated with preventing blindness. Gradually, methods improved and also captured onchocerciasis-associated skin disease. Studies found that eliminating onchocerciasis would generate billions in economic benefits. The majority of the cost-effectiveness analyses evaluated annual mass drug administration (MDA). The estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted of annual MDA varies between US$3 and US$30 (cost year variable). CONCLUSIONS: The cost benefit and cost effectiveness of onchocerciasis interventions have consistently been found to be very favourable. This finding provides strong evidential support for the ongoing efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis from endemic areas. Although these results are very promising, there are several important research gaps that need to be addressed as we move towards the 2020 milestones and beyond.

OBJECTIF: Fournir une analyse systématique des évaluations économiques réalisées pour les interventions contre l'onchocercose, résumer les principales connaissances actuelles et identifier les lacunes de la recherche. MÉTHODE: Une revue systématique de la littérature a été menée le 8 août 2018 en utilisant les bases de données électroniques PubMed (Medline) et ISI Web of Science. Aucune indication de date ou de langue n'a été appliquée aux recherches. RÉSULTATS: Nous avons identifié 14 études principales rapportant sur les résultats d'évaluations économiques d'interventions contre l'onchocercose, dont 7 étaient des analyses coût-efficacité. Les études identifiées ont utilisé diverses approches pour estimer les coûts des interventions/programmes étudiés. A l'origine, les études ne mesuraient que les avantages associés à la prévention de la cécité. Progressivement, les méthodes se sont améliorées et ont également capturé les maladies de la peau associées à l'onchocercose. Les études ont montré que l'élimination de l'onchocercose générerait des milliards de bénéfices économiques. La majorité des analyses coût-efficacité ont évalué l'administration annuelle en masse de médicaments (AMD). Le coût estimé par année de vie ajustée par rapport à l'incapacité (DALY) corrigé pour l'AMD annuelle varie entre 3 et 30 USD (variable de l'année de coût). ConclusionsLe rapport coût-efficacité et la rentabilité des interventions contre l'onchocercose se sont toujours avérés très favorables. Cette constatation fournit un solide appui probant aux efforts en cours pour éliminer l'onchocercose des zones d'endémie. Bien que ces résultats soient très prometteurs, plusieurs lacunes importantes en matière de recherche doivent être comblées à mesure que nous nous approchons des étapes clés pour 2020 et au-delà.

Vitamin A supplementation every 6 months with retinol in 1 million pre-school children in north India: DEVTA, a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: In north India, vitamin A deficiency (retinol <0·70 µmol/L) is common in pre-school children and 2-3% die at ages 1·0-6·0 years. We aimed to assess whether periodic vitamin A supplementation could reduce this mortality. METHODS: Participants in this cluster-randomised trial were pre-school children in the defined catchment areas of 8338 state-staffed village child-care centres (under-5 population 1 million) in 72 administrative blocks. Groups of four neighbouring blocks (clusters) were cluster-randomly allocated in Oxford, UK, between 6-monthly vitamin A (retinol capsule of 200,000 IU retinyl acetate in oil, to be cut and dripped into the child's mouth every 6 months), albendazole (400 mg tablet every 6 months), both, or neither (open control). Analyses of retinol effects are by block (36 vs 36 clusters). The study spanned 5 calendar years, with 11 6-monthly mass-treatment days for all children then aged 6-72 months. Annually, one centre per block was randomly selected and visited by a study team 1-5 months after any trial vitamin A to sample blood (for retinol assay, technically reliable only after mid-study), examine eyes, and interview caregivers. Separately, all 8338 centres were visited every 6 months to monitor pre-school deaths (100,000 visits, 25,000 deaths at ages 1·0-6·0 years [the primary outcome]). This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00222547. FINDINGS: Estimated compliance with 6-monthly retinol supplements was 86%. Among 2581 versus 2584 children surveyed during the second half of the study, mean plasma retinol was one-sixth higher (0·72 [SE 0·01] vs 0·62 [0·01] µmol/L, increase 0·10 [SE 0·01] µmol/L) and the prevalence of severe deficiency was halved (retinol <0·35 µmol/L 6%vs 13%, decrease 7% [SE 1%]), as was that of Bitot's spots (1·4%vs 3·5%, decrease 2·1% [SE 0·7%]). Comparing the 36 retinol-allocated versus 36 control blocks in analyses of the primary outcome, deaths per child-care centre at ages 1·0-6·0 years during the 5-year study were 3·01 retinol versus 3·15 control (absolute reduction 0·14 [SE 0·11], mortality ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·89-1·03, p=0·22), suggesting absolute risks of death between ages 1·0 and 6·0 years of approximately 2·5% retinol versus 2·6% control. No specific cause of death was significantly affected. INTERPRETATION: DEVTA contradicts the expectation from other trials that vitamin A supplementation would reduce child mortality by 20-30%, but cannot rule out some more modest effect. Meta-analysis of DEVTA plus eight previous randomised trials of supplementation (in various different populations) yielded a weighted average mortality reduction of 11% (95% CI 5-16, p=0·00015), reliably contradicting the hypothesis of no effect. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, USAID, World Bank (vitamin A donated by Roche).

Population deworming every 6 months with albendazole in 1 million pre-school children in North India: DEVTA, a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: In north India many pre-school children are underweight, many have intestinal worms, and 2-3% die at ages 1·0-6·0 years. We used the state-wide Integrated Child Development Service (ICDS) infrastructure to help to assess any effects of regular deworming on mortality. METHODS: Participants in this cluster-randomised study were children in catchment areas of 8338 ICDS-staffed village child-care centres (under-5 population 1 million) in 72 administrative blocks. Groups of four neighbouring blocks were cluster-randomly allocated in Oxford between 6-monthly vitamin A (retinol capsule of 200,000 IU retinyl acetate in oil, to be cut and dripped into the child's mouth every 6 months), albendazole (400 mg tablet every 6 months), both, or neither (open control). Analyses of albendazole effects are by block (36 vs 36 clusters). The study spanned 5 calendar years, with 11 6-monthly mass-treatment days for all children then aged 6-72 months. Annually, one centre per block was randomly selected and visited by a study team 1-5 months after any trial deworming to sample faeces (for presence of worm eggs, reliably assessed only after mid-study), weigh children, and interview caregivers. Separately, all 8338 centres were visited every 6 months to monitor pre-school deaths (100,000 visits, 25,000 deaths at age 1·0-6·0 years [the primary outcome]). This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00222547. FINDINGS: Estimated compliance with 6-monthly albendazole was 86%. Among 2589 versus 2576 children surveyed during the second half of the study, nematode egg prevalence was 16% versus 36%, and most infection was light. After at least 2 years of treatment, weight at ages 3·0-6·0 years (standardised to age 4·0 years, 50% male) was 12·72 kg albendazole versus 12·68 kg control (difference 0·04 kg, 95% CI -0·14 to 0·21, p=0·66). Comparing the 36 albendazole-allocated versus 36 control blocks in analyses of the primary outcome, deaths per child-care centre at ages 1·0-6·0 years during the 5-year study were 3·00 (SE 0·07) albendazole versus 3·16 (SE 0·09) control, difference 0·16 (SE 0·11, mortality ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·89 to 1·02, p=0·16), suggesting absolute risks of dying between ages 1·0 and 6·0 years of roughly 2·5% albendazole versus 2·6% control. No specific cause of death was significantly affected. INTERPRETATION: Existing ICDS village staff can be organised to deliver simple pre-school interventions sustainably for many years at low cost, but regular deworming had little effect on mortality in this lightly infected pre-school population. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, USAID, World Bank (albendazole donated by GlaxoSmithKline).

The SABER School Feeding policy tool: a 10-year analysis of its use by countries in developing policies for their national school meals programs.

Since its launch in 2011, 59 governments have used the World Bank's Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) policy tool to design their national school-based health and nutrition programs. This tool guides governments to self-evaluate their education system policies against international benchmarks and identify actionable priorities to strengthen national programs. Thirty-two of the 49 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (65%) have undertaken a SABER review, and globally the approach has been adopted by 68% of the world's low-income countries and 54% of lower-middle-income countries. Analysis of 51 comparable SABER School Feeding surveys suggests that countries with longer established national school meals frameworks tend also to be more advanced in other policy areas, and vice versa. The SABER reviews consistently identify, perhaps predictably, that the weakest policy areas relate to program design, implementation and fiscal space. This analysis also found that the tool had an additional value in tracking the evolution of policies when implemented over several time points, and showed that policy areas become more advanced as national programs mature. These benefits of the tool are particularly relevant to the 98 countries that co-created the global School Meals Coalition in 2021. The Coalition member countries have the specific goal of enhancing coverage and support for the well-being of schoolchildren and adolescents affected by the school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The SABER tool has the demonstrated potential to implement, accelerate and track changes in school meals policy and, since it has been previously used by 74% (31/42) of low- and lower-middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, is an already accepted element of the political economies of those countries and so has the potential to be deployed rapidly.

School food, politics and child health.

OBJECTIVE: An analysis undertaken jointly in 2009 by the UN World Food Programme, The Partnership for Child Development and the World Bank was published as Rethinking School Feeding to provide guidance on how to develop and implement effective school feeding programmes as a productive safety net and as part of the efforts to achieve Education for All. The present paper reflects on how understanding of school feeding has changed since that analysis. DESIGN: Data on school feeding programme outcomes were collected through a literature review. Regression models were used to analyse relationships between school feeding costs (from data that were collected), the per capita costs of primary education and Gross Domestic Product per capita. Data on the transition to national ownership, supply chains and country examples were collected through country case studies. RESULTS: School feeding programmes increase school attendance, cognition and educational achievement, as well as provide a transfer of resources to households with possible benefits to local agricultural production and local market development. Low-income countries exhibit large variations in school feeding costs, with concomitant opportunities for cost containment. Countries are increasingly looking to transition from externally supported projects to national programmes. CONCLUSIONS: School feeding is now clearly evident as a major social programme in most countries with a global turnover in excess of $US 100 billion. This argues for a continuing focus on the evidence base with a view to helping countries ensure that their programmes are as cost-effective as possible. Clear policy advice has never been more important.

A positive consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic: how the counterfactual experience of school closures is accelerating a multisectoral response to the treatment of neglected tropical diseases.

Global access to deworming treatment is one of the public health success stories of low-income countries in the twenty-first century. Parasitic worm infections are among the most ubiquitous chronic infections of humans, and early success with mass treatment programmes for these infections was the key catalyst for the neglected tropical disease (NTD) agenda. Since the launch of the 'London Declaration' in 2012, school-based deworming programmes have become the world's largest public health interventions. WHO estimates that by 2020, some 3.3 billion school-based drug treatments had been delivered. The success of this approach was brought to a dramatic halt in April 2020 when schools were closed worldwide in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These closures immediately excluded 1.5 billion children not only from access to education but also from all school-based health services, including deworming. WHO Pulse surveys in 2021 identified NTD treatment as among the most negatively affected health interventions worldwide, second only to mental health interventions. In reaction, governments created a global Coalition with the twin aims of reopening schools and of rebuilding more resilient school-based health systems. Today, some 86 countries, comprising more than half the world's population, are delivering on this response, and school-based coverage of some key school-based programmes exceeds those from January 2020. This paper explores how science, and a combination of new policy and epidemiological perspectives that began in the 1980s, led to the exceptional growth in school-based NTD programmes after 2012, and are again driving new momentum in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Low Prevalence of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections among Children in the States of Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, India, 2018.

Large-scale impact assessments of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) programs are essential for determining the frequency of mass drug administration (MDA). In baseline surveys, the prevalence of STHs in the Indian States of Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh was 80.2% in 2015 and 29.0% in 2016, respectively. In 2018, we estimated the prevalence and intensity of STHs after six rounds of biannual MDA in Chhattisgarh and annual MDA in Himachal Pradesh. We conducted multistage cluster sampling surveys in preschool-age children (PSAC), school-age children (SAC), and adolescent cohorts. Stool samples from 3,033 respondents (PSAC, n = 625; SAC, n = 1,363; adolescents, n = 1,045) in Chhattisgarh and 942 respondents (PSAC, n = 192; SAC, n = 388; adolescents, n = 362) in Himachal Pradesh were examined for presence of STH infection using the Kato-Katz method. The overall cluster-adjusted prevalence in Chhattisgarh was 11.6% among all age groups (95% CI, 5.6-22.4)-an 85.5% reduction in the prevalence since 2015. Prevalence was not significantly different across cohorts (PSAC, 11.0% [95% CI, 5.0-22.6]; SAC, 10.9% [95% CI, 5.2-21.6]; adolescents, 12.8% [95% CI, 6.2-24.5]). Ascaris lumbricoides was the most common helminth, with most infections of light intensity. In Himachal Pradesh, only three STH infections were detected in 2018, resulting in a cluster-adjusted prevalence of 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1-1.7)-a 99.0% reduction in prevalence since 2016. All infections were of light intensity. Both states showed substantial improvements in socioeconomic and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) indicators since the baseline surveys. Extensive reductions in prevalence and intensity are linked to sustained, high deworming coverage, as well as socioeconomic WASH indicators.

Investing in school systems: conceptualising returns on investment across the health, education and social protection sectors.

Public policies often aim to improve welfare, economic injustice and reduce inequality, particularly in the social protection, labour, health and education sectors. While these policies frequently operate in silos, the education sphere can operate as a cross-sectoral link. Schools represent a unique locus, with globally hundreds of millions of children attending class every day. A high-profile policy example is school feeding, with over 400 million students worldwide receiving meals in schools. The benefits of harmonising interventions across sectors with a common delivery platform include economies of scale. Moreover, economic evaluation frameworks commonly used to assess policies rarely account for impact across sectors besides their primary intent. For example, school meals are often evaluated for their impact on nutrition, but they also have educational benefits, including increasing attendance and learning and incorporating smallholder farmers into corporate value chains. To address these gaps, we propose the introduction of a comprehensive value-for-money framework for investments toward school systems that acknowledges the return to a common delivery platform-schools-and the multisectoral returns (eg, education, health and nutrition, labour, social protection) emerging from the rollout of school-based programmes. Directly building on benefit-cost analysis methods, this framework could help identify interventions that yield the highest gains in human capital per budget expenditure, with direct implications for finance ministries. Given the detrimental impact of COVID-19 on schoolchildren and human capital, it is urgent to build back stronger and more sustainable welfare systems.

On the transition to sustainability: an analysis of the costs of school feeding compared with the costs of primary education.

BACKGROUND: The current food, fuel, and financial crises have highlighted the importance of school feeding programs both as a social safety net for children living in poverty and food insecurity, and as part of national educational policies and plans. OBJECTIVE: To examine the costs of school feeding, in terms of both the absolute cost per child and the cost per child relative to overall education expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHODS: Data on the costs of school feeding in different countries were collected from multiple sources, including World Food Programme project data, reports from government ministries, and, where such searches failed, newspaper articles and other literature obtained from internet searches. Regression models were then used to analyze the relationships between school feeding costs, the per capita costs of primary education and GDP per capita. RESULTS: School feeding programs in low-income countries exhibit large variations in cost, with concomitant opportunities for cost containment. As countries get richer, however, school feeding costs become a much smaller proportion of the investment in education. The per capita costs of feeding relative to education decline nonlinearly with increasing GDP. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses suggest that the main reason for this decline in the relative cost of school feeding versus primary education is a greatly increased investment per child in primary education as GDP rises, but a fairly flat investment in food. The analyses also show that there appears to be a transitional discontinuity at the interface between the lower- and middle-income countries, which tends to coincide with changes in the capacity of governments to take over the management and funding of programs. Further analysis is required to define these relationships, but an initial conclusion is that supporting countries to maintain an investment in school feeding through this transition may emerge as a key role for development partners.

Comparing the impact on COVID-19 mortality of self-imposed behavior change and of government regulations across 13 countries.

OBJECTIVE: Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Cross-country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. We assess various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), comparing the effects of voluntary behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by examining their impacts on subsequent death rates. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data on COVID-19 deaths from 13 European countries, over March-May 2020. STUDY DESIGN: We examine two types of NPI: the introduction of government-enforced closure policies and self-imposed alteration of individual behaviors in the period prior to regulations. Our proxy for the latter is Google mobility data, which captures voluntary behavior change when disease salience is sufficiently high. The primary outcome variable is the rate of change in COVID-19 fatalities per day, 16-20 days after interventions take place. Linear multivariate regression analysis is used to evaluate impacts. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: publicly available. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Voluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths per day by 9.2 percentage points (pp) (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.5-14.0 pp). Government closure policies decrease the percent change in deaths per day by 14.0 pp (95% CI 10.8-17.2 pp). Disaggregating government policies, the most beneficial for reducing fatality, are intercity travel restrictions, canceling public events, requiring face masks in some situations, and closing nonessential workplaces. Other sub-components, such as closing schools and imposing stay-at-home rules, show smaller and statistically insignificant impacts. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs have substantially reduced fatalities arising from COVID-19. Importantly, the effect of voluntary behavior change is of the same order of magnitude as government-mandated regulations. These findings, including the substantial variation across dimensions of closure, have implications for the optimal targeted mix of government policies as the pandemic waxes and wanes, especially given the economic and human welfare consequences of strict regulations.