Point Prevalence Estimates of Activity-Limiting Long-term Symptoms Among United States Adults ≥1 Month After Reported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection, 1 November 2021.

BACKGROUND: Although most adults infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of United States (US) adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021. METHODS: We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from 1 February 2020 to 30 September 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021 as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for underascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration. RESULTS: On 1 November 2021, at least 3.0-5.0 million US adults, or 1.2%-1.9% of the US adult population, were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month's duration. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%-2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for underascertainment of infections was 1.7%-3.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the US population.

Genomic Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Predominance of the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variants - United States, June 2021-January 2022.

Genomic surveillance is a critical tool for tracking emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), which can exhibit characteristics that potentially affect public health and clinical interventions, including increased transmissibility, illness severity, and capacity for immune escape. During June 2021-January 2022, CDC expanded genomic surveillance data sources to incorporate sequence data from public repositories to produce weighted estimates of variant proportions at the jurisdiction level and refined analytic methods to enhance the timeliness and accuracy of national and regional variant proportion estimates. These changes also allowed for more comprehensive variant proportion estimation at the jurisdictional level (i.e., U.S. state, district, territory, and freely associated state). The data in this report are a summary of findings of recent proportions of circulating variants that are updated weekly on CDC's COVID Data Tracker website to enable timely public health action.† The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY sublineages) variant rose from 1% to >50% of viral lineages circulating nationally during 8 weeks, from May 1-June 26, 2021. Delta-associated infections remained predominant until being rapidly overtaken by infections associated with the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA sublineages) variant in December 2021, when Omicron increased from 1% to >50% of circulating viral lineages during a 2-week period. As of the week ending January 22, 2022, Omicron was estimated to account for 99.2% (95% CI = 99.0%-99.5%) of SARS-CoV-2 infections nationwide, and Delta for 0.7% (95% CI = 0.5%-1.0%). The dynamic landscape of SARS-CoV-2 variants in 2021, including Delta- and Omicron-driven resurgences of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States, underscores the importance of robust genomic surveillance efforts to inform public health planning and practice.

COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated and Fully Vaccinated Adults with and Without Booster Doses During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Emergence - 25 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4-December 25, 2021.

Previous reports of COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and death rates by vaccination status† indicate that vaccine protection against infection, as well as serious COVID-19 illness for some groups, declined with the emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and waning of vaccine-induced immunity (1-4). During August-November 2021, CDC recommended§ additional primary COVID-19 vaccine doses among immunocompromised persons and booster doses among persons aged ≥18 years (5). The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant emerged in the United States during December 2021 (6) and by December 25 accounted for 72% of sequenced lineages (7). To assess the impact of full vaccination with additional and booster doses (booster doses),¶ case and death rates and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated among unvaccinated and fully vaccinated adults by receipt of booster doses during pre-Delta (April-May 2021), Delta emergence (June 2021), Delta predominance (July-November 2021), and Omicron emergence (December 2021) periods in the United States. During 2021, averaged weekly, age-standardized case IRRs among unvaccinated persons compared with fully vaccinated persons decreased from 13.9 pre-Delta to 8.7 as Delta emerged, and to 5.1 during the period of Delta predominance. During October-November, unvaccinated persons had 13.9 and 53.2 times the risks for infection and COVID-19-associated death, respectively, compared with fully vaccinated persons who received booster doses, and 4.0 and 12.7 times the risks compared with fully vaccinated persons without booster doses. When the Omicron variant emerged during December 2021, case IRRs decreased to 4.9 for fully vaccinated persons with booster doses and 2.8 for those without booster doses, relative to October-November 2021. The highest impact of booster doses against infection and death compared with full vaccination without booster doses was recorded among persons aged 50-64 and ≥65 years. Eligible persons should stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations.

COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Among Adults - United States, December 14, 2020-May 22, 2021.

The U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program launched on December 14, 2020. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination for specific groups of the U.S. population who were at highest risk for COVID-19 hospitalization and death, including adults aged ≥75 years*; implementation varied by state, and eligibility was gradually expanded to persons aged ≥65 years beginning in January 2021. By April 19, 2021, eligibility was expanded to all adults aged ≥18 years nationwide.† To assess patterns of COVID-19 vaccination coverage among U.S. adults, CDC analyzed data submitted on vaccinations administered during December 14, 2020-May 22, 2021, by age, sex, and community-level characteristics. By May 22, 2021, 57.0% of persons aged ≥18 years had received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose; coverage was highest among persons aged ≥65 years (80.0%) and lowest among persons aged 18-29 years (38.3%). During the week beginning February 7, 2021, vaccination initiation among adults aged ≥65 years peaked at 8.2%, whereas weekly initiation among other age groups peaked later and at lower levels. During April 19-May 22, 2021, the period following expanded eligibility to all adults, weekly initiation remained <4.0% and decreased for all age groups, including persons aged 18-29 years (3.6% to 1.9%) and 30-49 years (3.5% to 1.7%); based on the current rate of weekly initiation (as of May 22), younger persons will not reach the same levels of coverage as older persons by the end of August. Across all age groups, coverage (≥1 dose) was lower among men compared with women, except among adults aged ≥65 years, and lower among persons living in counties that were less urban, had higher social vulnerabilities, or had higher percentages of social determinants of poor health. Continued efforts to improve vaccination confidence and alleviate barriers to vaccination initiation, especially among adults aged 18-49 years, could improve vaccination coverage.

Patterns in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage, by Social Vulnerability and Urbanicity - United States, December 14, 2020-May 1, 2021.

Disparities in vaccination coverage by social vulnerability, defined as social and structural factors associated with adverse health outcomes, were noted during the first 2.5 months of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which began during mid-December 2020 (1). As vaccine eligibility and availability continue to expand, assuring equitable coverage for disproportionately affected communities remains a priority. CDC examined COVID-19 vaccine administration and 2018 CDC social vulnerability index (SVI) data to ascertain whether inequities in COVID-19 vaccination coverage with respect to county-level SVI have persisted, overall and by urbanicity. Vaccination coverage was defined as the number of persons aged ≥18 years (adults) who had received ≥1 dose of any Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-authorized COVID-19 vaccine divided by the total adult population in a specified SVI category.† SVI was examined overall and by its four themes (socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, racial/ethnic minority status and language, and housing type and transportation). Counties were categorized into SVI quartiles, in which quartile 1 (Q1) represented the lowest level of vulnerability and quartile 4 (Q4), the highest. Trends in vaccination coverage were assessed by SVI quartile and urbanicity, which was categorized as large central metropolitan, large fringe metropolitan (areas surrounding large cities, e.g., suburban), medium and small metropolitan, and nonmetropolitan counties.§ During December 14, 2020-May 1, 2021, disparities in vaccination coverage by SVI increased, especially in large fringe metropolitan (e.g., suburban) and nonmetropolitan counties. By May 1, 2021, vaccination coverage was lower among adults living in counties with the highest overall SVI; differences were most pronounced in large fringe metropolitan (Q4 coverage = 45.0% versus Q1 coverage = 61.7%) and nonmetropolitan (Q4 = 40.6% versus Q1 = 52.9%) counties. Vaccination coverage disparities were largest for two SVI themes: socioeconomic status (Q4 = 44.3% versus Q1 = 61.0%) and household composition and disability (Q4 = 42.0% versus Q1 = 60.1%). Outreach efforts, including expanding public health messaging tailored to local populations and increasing vaccination access, could help increase vaccination coverage in high-SVI counties.

Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Between Urban and Rural Counties - United States, December 14, 2020-April 10, 2021.

Approximately 60 million persons in the United States live in rural counties, representing almost one fifth (19.3%) of the population.* In September 2020, COVID-19 incidence (cases per 100,000 population) in rural counties surpassed that in urban counties (1). Rural communities often have a higher proportion of residents who lack health insurance, live with comorbidities or disabilities, are aged ≥65 years, and have limited access to health care facilities with intensive care capabilities, which places these residents at increased risk for COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality (2,3). To better understand COVID-19 vaccination disparities across the urban-rural continuum, CDC analyzed county-level vaccine administration data among adults aged ≥18 years who received their first dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, or a single dose of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) during December 14, 2020-April 10, 2021 in 50 U.S. jurisdictions (49 states and the District of Columbia [DC]). Adult COVID-19 vaccination coverage was lower in rural counties (38.9%) than in urban counties (45.7%) overall and among adults aged 18-64 years (29.1% rural, 37.7% urban), those aged ≥65 years (67.6% rural, 76.1% urban), women (41.7% rural, 48.4% urban), and men (35.3% rural, 41.9% urban). Vaccination coverage varied among jurisdictions: 36 jurisdictions had higher coverage in urban counties, five had higher coverage in rural counties, and five had similar coverage (i.e., within 1%) in urban and rural counties; in four jurisdictions with no rural counties, the urban-rural comparison could not be assessed. A larger proportion of persons in the most rural counties (14.6%) traveled for vaccination to nonadjacent counties (i.e., farther from their county of residence) compared with persons in the most urban counties (10.3%). As availability of COVID-19 vaccines expands, public health practitioners should continue collaborating with health care providers, pharmacies, employers, faith leaders, and other community partners to identify and address barriers to COVID-19 vaccination in rural areas (2).

Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Status - 13 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4-July 17, 2021.

COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection surveillance helps monitor trends in disease incidence and severe outcomes in fully vaccinated persons, including the impact of the highly transmissible B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Reported COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring among persons aged ≥18 years during April 4-July 17, 2021, were analyzed by vaccination status across 13 U.S. jurisdictions that routinely linked case surveillance and immunization registry data. Averaged weekly, age-standardized incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for cases among persons who were not fully vaccinated compared with those among fully vaccinated persons decreased from 11.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.8-15.8) to 4.6 (95% CI = 2.5-8.5) between two periods when prevalence of the Delta variant was lower (<50% of sequenced isolates; April 4-June 19) and higher (≥50%; June 20-July 17), and IRRs for hospitalizations and deaths decreased between the same two periods, from 13.3 (95% CI = 11.3-15.6) to 10.4 (95% CI = 8.1-13.3) and from 16.6 (95% CI = 13.5-20.4) to 11.3 (95% CI = 9.1-13.9). Findings were consistent with a potential decline in vaccine protection against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and continued strong protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and death. Getting vaccinated protects against severe illness from COVID-19, including the Delta variant, and monitoring COVID-19 incidence by vaccination status might provide early signals of changes in vaccine-related protection that can be confirmed through well-controlled vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies.

Evidence of an Association of Increases in Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Coverage With Decreases in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis Rates in the United States, 2012-2016.

BACKGROUND: Annual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses in the United States (US) have plateaued since 2013. We assessed whether there is an association between uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and decreases in HIV diagnoses. METHODS: We used 2012-2016 data from the US National HIV Surveillance System to estimate viral suppression (VS) and annual percentage change in diagnosis rate (EAPC) in 33 jurisdictions, and data from a national pharmacy database to estimate PrEP uptake. We used Poisson regression with random effects for state and year to estimate the association between PrEP coverage and EAPC: within jurisdictional quintiles grouped by changes in PrEP coverage, regressing EAPC on time; and among all jurisdictions, regressing EAPC on both time and jurisdictional changes in PrEP coverage with and without accounting for changes in VS. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2016, across the 10 states with the greatest increases in PrEP coverage, the EAPC decreased 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], -5.2% to -2.9%). On average, across the states and District of Columbia, EAPC for a given year decreased by 1.1% (95% CI, -1.77% to -.49%) for an increase in PrEP coverage of 1 per 100 persons with indications. When controlling for VS, the state-specific EAPC for a given year decreased by 1.3% (95% CI, -2.12% to -.57%) for an increase in PrEP coverage of 1 per 100 persons with indications. CONCLUSIONS: We found statistically significant associations between jurisdictional increases in PrEP coverage and decreases in EAPC independent of changes in VS, which supports bringing PrEP use to scale in the US to accelerate reductions in HIV infections.

Risk for Tuberculosis Disease Among Contacts with Prior Positive Tuberculin Skin Test: A retrospective Cohort Study, New York City.

BACKGROUND: Patients with prior positive tuberculin skin test (TST) results may benefit from prophylaxis after repeat exposure to infectious tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate factors associated with active TB disease among persons with prior positive TST results named as contacts of persons with infectious TB. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2,933 contacts with prior positive TST results recently exposed to infectious TB identified in New York City's TB registry during the period from January 1, 1997 through December 31, 2003. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Contacts developing active TB disease ≤ 4 years after exposure were identified and compared with those who did not, using Poisson regression analysis. Genotyping was performed on selected Mycobacterium tuberculosis-positive isolates. KEY RESULTS: Among contacts with prior positive TST results, 39 (1.3 %) developed active TB disease ≤ 4 years after exposure (≤ 2 years: 34). Risk factors for contacts that were independently associated with TB were age < 5 years (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 19.48; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 7.15-53.09), household exposure (aPR = 2.60;CI = 1.30-5.21), exposure to infectious patients (i.e., cavities on chest radiograph, acid-fast bacilli on sputum smear; aPR = 1.9 3; CI = 1.01-3.71), and exposure to a U.S.-born index patient (aPR = 4.04; CI = 1.95-8.38). Receipt of more than 1 month of treatment for latent TB infection following the current contact investigation was found to be protective (aPR = 0.27; CI = .08-0.93). Genotype results were concordant with the index patients among 14 of 15 contacts who developed active TB disease and had genotyping results available. CONCLUSIONS: Concordant genotype results and a high proportion of contacts developing active TB disease within 2 years of exposure indicate that those with prior positive TST results likely developed active TB disease from recent rather than remote infection. Healthcare providers should consider prophylaxis for contacts with prior TB infection, especially young children and close contacts of TB patients (e.g., those with household exposure).

Previously undiagnosed HIV infections identified through cluster investigation, North Carolina, 2002-2007.

During cluster investigation, index patients name social contacts that are not sex or drug-sharing partners. The likelihood of identifying new HIV infections among social contacts is unknown. We hypothesized greater odds of identifying new infections among social contacts identified by men who report sex with men (MSM). We reviewed North Carolina HIV diagnoses during 2002-2005 and used logistic regression to compare testing results among social contacts of MSM, men who report sex with women only (MSW) and women. HIV was newly diagnosed among 54/601 (9.0 %) social contacts tested named by MSM, 16/522 (3.1 %) named by MSW, and 23/639 (3.6 %) named by women. Compared with those named by MSW, odds of new HIV diagnosis were greater among MSM social contacts (adjusted odds ratio: 2.5; 95 % confidence interval: 1.3-4.7). Testing social contacts identified previously undiagnosed HIV infections and could provide an opportunity to interrupt transmission.

Repeat abortions in New York City, 2010.

This study aims to describe factors associated with the number of past abortions obtained by New York City (NYC) abortion patients in 2010. We calculated rates of first and repeat abortion by age, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood-level poverty and the mean number of self-reported past abortions by age, race/ethnicity, neighborhood-level poverty, number of living children, education, payment method, marital status, and nativity. We used negative binomial regression to predict number of past abortions by patient characteristics. Of the 76,614 abortions reported for NYC residents in 2010, 57% were repeat abortions. Repeat abortions comprised >50% of total abortions among the majority of sociodemographic groups we examined. Overall, mean number of past abortions was 1.3. Mean number of past abortions was higher for women aged 30-34 years (1.77), women with ≥5 children (2.50), and black non-Hispanic women (1.52). After multivariable regression, age, race/ethnicity, and number of children were the strongest predictors of number of past abortions. This analysis demonstrates that, although socioeconomic disparities exist, all abortion patients are at high risk for repeat unintended pregnancy and abortion.

Effect of vaccination coordinators on socioeconomic disparities in immunization among the 2006 Connecticut birth cohort.

OBJECTIVES: We examined socioeconomic status (SES) disparities and the influence of state Immunization Action Plan-funded vaccination coordinators located in low-SES areas of Connecticut on childhood vaccination up-to-date (UTD) status at age 24 months. METHODS: We examined predictors of underimmunization among the 2006 birth cohort (n = 34,568) in the state's Immunization Information System, including individual demographic and SES data, census tract SES data, and residence in an area with a vaccination coordinator. We conducted multilevel logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 81% of children were UTD. Differences by race/ethnicity and census tract SES were typically under 5%. Not being UTD at age 7 months was the strongest predictor of underimmunization at age 24 months. Among children who were not UTD at age 7 months, only Medicaid enrollment (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.5, 0.7) and residence in an area with a vaccination coordinator (AOR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.6, 0.9) significantly decreased the odds of subsequent underimmunization. CONCLUSIONS: SES disparities associated with underimmunization at age 24 months were limited. Efforts focused on vaccinating infants born in low SES circumstances can minimize disparities.

Adverse childhood experiences and adult smoking, Nebraska, 2011.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is a public health risk; the prevalence of smoking among adults in Nebraska is 18.4%. Studies indicate that maltreatment of children alters their brain development, possibly increasing risk for tobacco use. Previous studies have documented associations between childhood maltreatment and adult health behaviors, demonstrating the influence of adverse experiences on tobacco use. We examined prevalence and associations between adverse childhood experiences and smoking among Nebraskans. METHODS: We analyzed 2011 Nebraska Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (Adverse Childhood Experience module) data, defining adverse childhood experience exposures as physical, sexual, and verbal abuse (ie, direct exposures), and household dysfunction associated with mental illness, substance abuse, divorce, domestic violence, and living with persons with incarceration histories (ie, environmental exposures). We estimated prevalence of exposures, taking into account the complex survey design. We used logistic regression with predicted margins to estimate adjusted relative risk for smoking by direct or environmental exposure. RESULTS: Approximately 51% of Nebraskans experienced 1 or more adverse childhood events; 7% experienced 5 or more. Prevalence of environmental exposures (42%) was significantly higher than that of direct exposures (31%). Prevalence of individual exposures ranged from 6% (incarceration of a household member) to 25% (verbal abuse). Adjusted relative risks of smoking for direct and environmental exposures were 1.5 and 1.8, respectively. CONCLUSION: We present a new method of evaluating adverse childhood experience data. Prevalence of adverse childhood experiences is high among Nebraskans, and these exposures are associated with smoking. State-specific strategies to monitor adverse events among children and provide interventions might help to decrease the smoking rate in this population.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. METHODS: A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. RESULTS: The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%-18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. CONCLUSIONS: These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%-18.2%).

Factors associated with receipt of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) monovalent and seasonal influenza vaccination among school-aged children: Maricopa County, Arizona, 2009-2010 influenza season.

CONTEXT: To target school-aged children (SAC), who were identified as a priority for pandemic 2009 Influenza A (pH1N1) vaccination, Maricopa County (MC) initiated school-based influenza vaccination in 69% of its 706 schools during the 2009-2010 influenza season. OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with receipt of pH1N1 monovalent and 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccination among SAC and evaluate the association of school-based vaccination with vaccination status of SAC. DESIGN: Random-digit dialing was used to survey 600 MC households with willing adult participants and children grades K-12. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with pH1N1 and seasonal vaccine receipt. SETTING: Arizona. PARTICIPANTS: Household adults with children grades K-12. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Characteristics of children, parents, and households were obtained. RESULTS: Among 909 SAC, 402 (44%) received pH1N1 and 436 (48%) received seasonal vaccination. Factors associated with pH1N1 vaccination included vaccine availability at school (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-2.7), high-risk medical condition in child (AOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.4-4.0), elementary versus high school attendance (AOR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0-2.7), and seasonal influenza vaccination (AOR: 10.0; 95% CI: 6.4-15.6). Factors associated with seasonal vaccination included Hispanic ethnicity (AOR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1-4.2), health insurance coverage (AOR: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.7-13.7), elementary versus high school attendance (AOR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.5), and pH1N1 vaccination (AOR: 10.5; 95% CI: 6.7-16.6). CONCLUSIONS: Availability of pH1N1 vaccine at school was independently associated with pH1N1 vaccination of MC school-aged children. School-based influenza vaccination campaigns should be considered to increase vaccination among this population.

Public health impact of the U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub.

Beginning in December 2020, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated across up to nine modeling groups. Projections spanned multiple months into the future and provided timely information on potential impacts of epidemiological uncertainties and interventions. Projections results were shared with the public, public health partners, and the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Response Team. The projections provided insights on situational awareness and informed decision-making to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden (e.g., vaccination strategies). By aggregating projections from multiple modeling teams, the Scenario Modeling Hub provided rapidly synthesized information in times of great uncertainty and conveyed possible trajectories in the presence of emerging variants. Here we detail several use cases of these projections in public health practice and communication, including assessments of whether modeling results directly or indirectly informed public health communication or guidance. These include multiple examples where comparisons of projected COVID-19 disease outcomes under different vaccination scenarios were used to inform Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices recommendations. We also describe challenges and lessons learned during this highly beneficial collaboration.

2009 pandemic influenza a vaccination of pregnant women--King County, Washington State, 2009-2010.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to estimate 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) vaccination coverage among pregnant women and identify associated factors. METHODS: We distributed a multimodal survey to 5341 women who gave birth between November 1, 2009, and January 31, 2010, identified by hospitals in King County, Washington State, with maternity services (n = 11). RESULTS: Of 4205 respondents, 3233 (76.9%) reported that they had received pH1N1 vaccine during pregnancy or within 2 weeks after delivery. Women whose prenatal care provider recommended vaccine had a higher vaccination prevalence than women whose provider did not (81.5% vs 29.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval = 1.72, 2.58). Vaccination prevalence was lower among women who had received prenatal care from a midwife only compared with women who had received care from other providers (62.9% vs 78.8%; adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.89; 95% confidence interval = 0.83, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Among pregnant women in King County, pH1N1 vaccination coverage was high. To improve coverage during nonpandemic seasons, influenza vaccine should be recommended routinely by prenatal care providers and vaccination provided where prenatal care is received. Barriers to midwives providing vaccination recommendations to patients should be explored.

Estimated Number of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Prevented Among Vaccinated Persons in the US, December 2020 to September 2021.

Importance: The number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented among vaccinated persons, independent of the effect of reduced transmission, is a key measure of vaccine impact. Objective: To estimate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented among vaccinated adults in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this modeling study, a multiplier model was used to extrapolate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated deaths from data on the number of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations stratified by state, month, and age group (18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 years) in the US from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021. These estimates were combined with data on vaccine coverage and effectiveness to estimate the risks of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Risks were applied to the US population 18 years or older to estimate the expected burden in that population without vaccination. The estimated burden in the US population 18 years or older given observed levels of vaccination was subtracted from the expected burden in the US population 18 years or older without vaccination (ie, counterfactual) to estimate the impact of vaccination among vaccinated persons. Exposures: Completion of the COVID-19 vaccination course, defined as 2 doses of messenger RNA (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) vaccines or 1 dose of JNJ-78436735 vaccine. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly numbers and percentages of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented were estimated among those who have been vaccinated in the US. Results: COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to prevent approximately 27 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 million to 34 million) infections, 1.6 million (95% UI, 1.4 million to 1.8 million) hospitalizations, and 235 000 (95% UI, 175 000-305 000) deaths in the US from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, among vaccinated adults 18 years or older. From September 1 to September 30, 2021, vaccination was estimated to prevent 52% (95% UI, 45%-62%) of expected infections, 56% (95% UI, 52%-62%) of expected hospitalizations, and 58% (95% UI, 53%-63%) of expected deaths in adults 18 years or older. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings indicate that the US COVID-19 vaccination program prevented a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality through direct protection of vaccinated individuals.

Shedding of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus among health care personnel, Seattle, Washington, USA.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that health care personnel (HCP) infected with pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 virus not work until 24 hours after fever subsides without the use of antipyretics. During an influenza outbreak, we examined the association between viral shedding and fever among infected HCP. Participants recorded temperatures daily and provided nasal wash specimens for 2 weeks after symptom onset. Specimens were tested by using PCR and culture. When they met CDC criteria for returning to work, 12 of 16 HCP (75%) (95% confidence interval 48%-93%) had virus detected by PCR, and 9 (56%) (95% confidence interval 30%-80%) had virus detected by culture. Fever was not associated with shedding duration (p = 0.65). HCP might shed virus even when meeting CDC exclusion guidelines. Further research is needed to clarify the association between viral shedding, symptoms, and infectiousness.

Carbon monoxide poisoning after an ice storm in Kentucky, 2009.

OBJECTIVES: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality during natural disasters. On January 26-27, 2009, a severe ice storm occurred in Kentucky, causing widespread, extended power outages and disrupting transportation and communications. After the storm, CO poisonings were reported throughout the state. The objectives of this investigation were to determine the extent of the problem, identify sources of CO poisoning, characterize cases, make recommendations to reduce morbidity and mortality, and develop prevention strategies. METHODS: We obtained data from the Kentucky Regional Poison Center (KRPC), hyperbaric oxygen treatment (HBOT) facilities, and coroners. Additionally, the Kentucky Department for Public Health provided statewide emergency department (ED) and hospitalization data. RESULTS: During the two weeks after the storm, KRPC identified 144 cases of CO poisoning; exposure sources included kerosene heaters, generators, and propane heaters. Hospitals reported 202 ED visits and 26 admissions. Twenty-eight people received HBOT. Ten deaths were attributed to CO poisoning, eight of which were related to inappropriate generator location. Higher rates of CO poisoning were reported in areas with the most ice accumulation. CONCLUSIONS: Although CO poisonings are preventable, they continue to occur in postdisaster situations. Recommendations include encouraging use of CO alarms, exploring use of engineering controls on generators to decrease CO exposure, providing specific information regarding safe use and placement of CO-producing devices, and using multiple communication methods to reach people without electricity.