Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

AGILE SCORES IN MASLD AND ALD: EXTERNAL VALIDATION AND THEIR UTILITY IN CLINICAL ALGORITHMS.

BACKGROUND: Agile scores, including liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and routine clinical/laboratory biomarkers, have been developed for advanced fibrosis (F≥3) and cirrhosis, respectively, in patients with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We independently validated the diagnostic accuracy of these scores in MASLD, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and chronic hepatitis B or C (CHB/C) and assessed them in clinical algorithms with FIB-4 and LSM. METHODS: We included 4,243 patients (MASLD:912, ALD:386, CHB:597, CHC:2348) with LSM, liver biopsy and laboratory tests within 6 months. FIB-4, Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores were calculated. RESULTS: For F≥3, diagnostic accuracy of Agile 3+ and LSM were similar in MASLD (AUC: 0.86 vs 0.86, P=0.831) and ALD (0.92 vs 0.94, P=0.123). For cirrhosis, Agile 4 was similar to LSM in MASLD (0.89 vs 0.90, P=0.412) and ALD (0.94 vs 0.95, P=0.513). Agile 3+/4 performed worse than LSM in CHB/C. Using predefined dual thresholds of 90% Se/Sp, correct classification rates in MASLD were 66% vs 61% using Agile 3+ vs LS dual cut-offs and 71% vs 67% in ALD. When using Agile 3+ or LSM as a second step after FIB-4>1.3, correct classification rates were higher with Agile 3+ than LSM, both for MASLD (75% vs 71%) and for ALD patients (76% vs 72%) with fewer indeterminate results. Positive agreement of LSM and Agile 3+/4 significantly increased the specificity of a diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 have equal diagnostic accuracy with LSM in both MASLD and ALD but result in fewer indeterminate results. Sequential use of FIB-4 and Agile 3+/4 or concurrent Agile 3+/4 and LSM can be used to further optimize F≥3 diagnosis.

Validation of the new 2021 EASL algorithm for the noninvasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) has recently proposed an algorithm for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of this algorithm in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). APPROACH AND RESULTS: One thousand fifty-one patients with NAFLD, liver biopsy, and four noninvasive tests (NITs; Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], vibration controlled transient elastography [VCTE], FibroMeter, Fibrotest) were included. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score was available in 396 patients. A cohort of 230 patients from primary care/diabetes clinics had FIB4, VCTE, and ELF. Compared with the performance of single NITs, agreement between two NITs (FIB4 and VCTE, VCTE and patented serum tests) increased specificity and positive predictive value by 20%, thus justifying the sequential use proposed in the EASL algorithm. The FIB4/VCTE/FibroMeter and FIB4/VCTE/Fibrotest algorithms performed similarly, providing 85% diagnostic accuracy and a liver biopsy requirement rate of only 10%. The FIB4/VCTE/ELF algorithm performed similarly in the subgroup where ELF was available. Simulations of algorithm accuracies at different prevalence showed that positive predictive values rapidly increased, reaching a plateau above 75% starting at 15% prevalence. Negative predictive values remained higher than 90% up to 25% prevalence. The rate of liver biopsy requirement remained stable, increasing by only 5% between low and high prevalence settings. When the EASL algorithm was applied in the primary care/diabetes clinic cohort, liver biopsy requirement was only 3%, and the agreement among the three steps provided 75% positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Our study validates the algorithm proposed by the EASL in its latest 2021 guidelines for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in the setting of NAFLD.

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes on the Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis With Resulting Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis have been suggested to be less accurate in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to compare the accuracy of 6 NITs between patients with or without T2DM, explain any differences, and adapt diagnostic algorithms for clinical practice accordingly. METHODS: We included 1051 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with liver biopsy, blood fibrosis tests (Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score, FIB4, Fibrotest, FibroMeter), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and the combinatory elasto-blood test FibroMeterVCTE. The study endpoint was advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy. RESULTS: NIT areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were significantly lower in patients with T2DM, mostly because of a decrease in specificity. For FIB4, this decrease in specificity was only related to the higher age of patients with T2DM enrolled. For Fibrotest, FibroMeter, and FibroMeterVCTE, the decrease in specificity was related to age but also to higher alpha2-macroglobulin level, which is known to increase in T2DM. Sensitivity was unaffected by T2DM, but it masked a doubled raw number of false negatives because of the 2-fold higher prevalence of advanced fibrosis in that setting. The sequential algorithm FIB4-vibration-controlled transient elastography had 90.3% accuracy in patients without T2DM vs 79.0% in those with (P < .001). Algorithms using first-line specialized tests maintained a low rate of false negatives and false positives in T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in NIT accuracy observed in T2DM is partly biased by the different characteristics of the groups studied, but also linked to T2DM itself through modification of the levels of some NIT biomarkers. Specialized tests should be used first-line to diagnose advanced liver fibrosis in T2DM.

Validation of a screening algorithm for hepatic fibrosis by Doppler ultrasound and elastography in a general population.

BACKGROUND: Early detection can prevent the initial stages of fibrosis from progressing to cirrhosis. PURPOSE: To evaluate an algorithm combining three echographic indicators and elastographic measurements to screen for hepatic fibrosis in an unselected population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From May 2017 to June 2018, all patients with no history and no known chronic liver disease who were referred for an ultrasound (US) were prospectively included in eight hospitals. The indicators being sought were liver surface irregularity, demodulation of hepatic veins, and spleen length >110 mm. Patients presenting at least one of these underwent elastography measurements with virtual touch quantification (VTQ) or supersonic shear imaging (SSI). If elastography was positive, patients were referred to hepatologist for fibrosis evaluation. Reference standard was obtained by FibroMeterVCTE or biopsy. A FibroMeterVCTE result >0.384 indicated a "necessary referral" to a hepatologist. RESULTS: Of the 1501 patients included, 504 (33.6%) were positive for at least one US indicator. All of them underwent US elastography, with 85 being positive. Of the patients, 58 (3.6%) had a consultation with a liver specialist: 21 had positive FibroMeterVCTE and nine had an indication of biopsy for suspicion of fibrosis. This screening algorithm made it possible to diagnose 1.6% of patients in our population with unknown fibrosis. Of the patients, 50% referred to the liver specialist were "necessary referrals." CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that three simple US indicators with no systematic elastographic measurement could be applied in day-to-day practice to look for hepatic fibrosis in an unsuspected population allowing relevant referrals to a hepatologist.

ABO blood group does not influence Child-Pugh A cirrhosis outcome: An observational study from CIRRAL and ANRS CO12 CIRVIR cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-O blood group promotes deep vein thrombosis and liver fibrosis in both general population and hepatitis C. We aimed to evaluate the influence of Non-O group on the outcome of Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. METHODS: We used two prospective cohorts of Child-Pugh A cirrhosis due to either alcohol or viral hepatitis. Primary end point was the cumulated incidence of 'Decompensation' at 3 years, defined as the occurrence of ascites , hydrothorax, encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding related to portal hypertension, or bilirubin >45 µmol/L. Secondary end points were the cumulated incidences of (1) 'Disease Progression' including a « decompensation¼ or « the occurrence of one or more parameters ¼ among: prothrombin time (PT) <45%, albumin <28 g/L, Child-Pugh worsening (B or C vs A or B, C vs B), hepatorenal syndrome, and hepato-pulmonary syndrome, (2) other events such as non-malignant portal vein thrombosis (nmPVT), and (3) overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (n = 1789; 59.9% Non-O group; 40.1% group O) were followed during a median of 65.4 months. At 3 years cumulated incidence of Decompensation was 8.3% in Non-O group and 7.2% in group O (P = .27). Cumulated incidence of Disease Progression was 20.7% in Non-O group and 18.9% in group O (P = .26). Cumulated incidence of nmPVT was 2.7% in Non-O group and 2.8% in group O (P = .05). At 3 years overall survival was 92.4% in Non-O group and 93.4% in group O (P = 1). CONCLUSION: Non-O group does not influence disease outcome in Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. Clinicals trial number NCT03342170.

Clinical outcomes after treatment with direct antiviral agents: beyond the virological response in patients with previous HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: In HCV-infected patients with advanced liver disease, the direct antiviral agents-associated clinical benefits remain debated. We compared the clinical outcome of patients with a previous history of decompensated cirrhosis following treatment or not with direct antiviral agents from the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: We identified HCV patients who had experienced an episode of decompensated cirrhosis. Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, liver-related or non-liver-related deaths, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation. Secondary study outcomes were sustained virological response and its clinical benefits. RESULTS: 559 patients met the identification criteria, of which 483 received direct antiviral agents and 76 remained untreated after inclusion in the cohort. The median follow-up time was 39.7 (IQR: 22.7-51) months. After adjustment for multivariate analysis, exposure to direct antiviral agents was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.84, p = 0.01) and non-liver-related death (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.82, p = 0.02), and was not associated with liver-related death, decrease in hepatocellular carcinoma and need for liver transplantation. The sustained virological response was 88%. According to adjusted multivariable analysis, sustained virological response achievement was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.15-0.54, p < 0.0001), liver-related mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.96, p = 0.04), non-liver-related mortality (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.49, p = 0.001), liver transplantation (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.54, p = 0.003), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Treatment with direct antiviral agents is associated with reduced risk for mortality. The sustained virological response was 88%. Thus, direct antiviral agents treatment should be considered for any patient with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  ClinicalTrials.gov registry number: NCT01953458.

Refining the Baveno VI elastography criteria for the definition of compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The Baveno VI consensus proposed a dual liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography threshold of <10 and >15 kPa for excluding and diagnosing compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) in the absence of other clinical signs. Herein, we aimed to validate these criteria in a real-world multicentre study. METHODS: We included 5,648 patients (mean age 51 ± 13 years, 53% males) from 10 European liver centres who had a liver biopsy and LS measurement within 6 months. We included patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 2,913, 52%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 1,073, 19%), alcohol-related liver disease (ALD, n = 946, 17%) or chronic hepatitis B (n = 716, 13%). cACLD was defined as fibrosis stage ≥F3. RESULTS: Overall, 3,606 (66%) and 987 (18%) patients had LS <10 and >15 kPa, respectively, while cACLD was histologically confirmed in 1,772 (31%) patients. The cut-offs of <10 and >15 kPa showed 75% sensitivity and 96% specificity to exclude and diagnose cACLD, respectively. Examining the ROC curve, a more optimal dual cut-off at <7 and >12 kPa, with 91% sensitivity and 92% specificity for excluding and diagnosing cACLD (AUC 0.87; 95% CI 0.86-0.88; p <0.001) was derived. Specifically, for ALD and NAFLD, a low cut-off of 8 kPa can be used (sensitivity=93%). For the unclassified patients, we derived a risk model based on common patient characteristics with better discrimination than LS alone (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Instead of the Baveno VI proposed <10 and >15 kPa dual cut-offs, we found that the <8 kPa (or <7 kPa for viral hepatitis) and >12 kPa dual cut-offs have better diagnostic accuracy in cACLD. LAY SUMMARY: The term compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) was introduced in 2015 to describe the spectrum of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in asymptomatic patients. It was also suggested that cACLD could be diagnosed or ruled out based on specific liver stiffness values, which can be non-invasively measured by transient elastography. Herein, we assessed the suggested cut-off values and identified alternative values that offered better overall accuracy for diagnosing or ruling out cACLD.

Including Ratio of Platelets to Liver Stiffness Improves Accuracy of Screening for Esophageal Varices That Require Treatment.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Based on platelets and liver stiffness measurements, the Baveno VI criteria (B6C), the expanded B6C (EB6C), and the ANTICIPATE score can be used to rule out varices needing treatment (VNT) in patients with compensated chronic liver disease. We aimed to improve these tests by including data on the ratio of platelets to liver stiffness. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis of data from 10 study populations, collected from 2004 through 2018, we randomly assigned data from 2368 patients with chronic liver disease of different etiologies to a derivation population (n = 1579; 15.1% with VNT, 50.2% with viral hepatitis, 28.9% with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 20.8% with alcohol-associated liver disease, with model for end-stage liver disease scores of 9.5 ± 3.0, and 93.0% with liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa) or a validation population (n = 789). Test results were compared with results from a sequential algorithm (VariScreen). VariScreen incorporated data on platelets or liver stiffness measurements and then the ratio of platelets to liver stiffness measurement, adjusted for etiology, patient sex, and international normalized ratio. RESULTS: In the derivation population, endoscopies were spared for 23.9% of patients using the B6C (VNT missed in 2.9%), 24.3% of patients using the ANTICIPATE score (VNT missed in 4.6%), 34.5% of patients using VariScreen (VNT missed in 2.9%), and 41.9% of patients using the EB6C (VNT missed in 10.9%). Differences in spared endoscopy rates were significant (P ≤ .001), except for B6C vs ANTICIPATE and in missed VNT only for EB6C vs the others (P ≤ .009). VariScreen was the only safe test regardless of sex or etiology (missed VNT ≤5%). Moreover, VariScreen secured screening without missed VNT in patients with model for end-stage liver disease scores higher than 10. This overall strategy performed better than a selective strategy restricted to patients with compensated liver disease. Test performance and safety did not differ significantly among populations. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective study of data from 2368 patients with chronic liver disease, we found that the B6C are safe whereas the EB6C are unsafe, based on missed VNT. The VariScreen algorithm performed well in patients with chronic liver disease of any etiology or severity. It is the only test that safely rules out VNT and can be used in clinical practice.

Non-selective beta-blockers increase overall and liver mortality in alcoholic cirrhosis with MELD ≥ 12 over 5 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-cardioselective beta-blocker (NSBB) effects on mortality in cirrhosis are controversial. We evaluated the impact of NSBBs on mortality according to liver severity and mortality cause. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty-eight patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were included in a retroprospective cohort: 129 NSBB-treated and 129 controls. The NSBB group had the following significant baseline differences: higher MELD, more frequent previous gastrointestinal bleeding, large oesophageal varices (OV) and lower heart rate. Propranolol dose was 160 mg/d in 81% of NSBB patients. RESULTS: (i) Liver function: during 5.3 ± 2.6 years of follow-up, MELD progression was higher in NSBB patients: 1 (-1-4) than in controls: 0 (-1-1) (P = .017). (ii) Overall survival: no significant differences were observed between NSBBs and controls (Kaplan-Meier curves: P = .291). In multivariate Cox analysis, baseline MELD interacted with NSBB (P = .011). Thus, the NSBB hazard ratio (HR) was 0.99 (0.50-1.98) in MELD < 12 vs 3.17 (1.19-8.42) in MELD ≥ 12. (iii) Liver survival: NSBB decreased liver survival (Kaplan-Meier: P = .031). In multivariate Cox analysis, baseline MELD interacted with NSBB (P < .001). The NSBB HR was 0.81 (0.30-2.19) in MELD < 12 vs 6.23 (1.94-20.0) in MELD ≥ 12. In competing risk multivariate analysis for liver mortality, the MELD-NSBB interaction was significant (P < .001): the NSBB HR was 1.02 (0.36-2.91) in MELD < 12 vs 9.24 (3.18-26.9) in MELD ≥ 12. 4) Non-liver survival: contrastingly, non-liver survival was increased by NSBBs, especially in MELD ≥ 12 (competing Kaplan-Meier: P = .044). These results were confirmed in propensity risk score (PRS)-matched patients. CONCLUSION: In alcoholic cirrhosis with rather high propranolol doses, overall and liver survival are significantly aggravated when MELD is ≥12.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status. METHODS: Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014). RESULTS: Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis C after direct-acting antiviral treatment: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although direct-acting antivirals have been used extensively to treat patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, their clinical effectiveness has not been well reported. We compared the incidence of death, hepatocellular carcinoma, and decompensated cirrhosis between patients treated with direct-acting antivirals and those untreated, in the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort. METHODS: We did a prospective study in adult patients with chronic HCV infection enrolled from 32 expert hepatology centres in France. We excluded patients with chronic hepatitis B, those with a history of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver transplantation, and patients who were treated with interferon-ribavirin with or without first-generation protease inhibitors. Co-primary study outcomes were incidence of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, and decompensated cirrhosis. The association between direct-acting antivirals and these outcomes was quantified using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01953458. FINDINGS: Between Aug 6, 2012, and Dec 31, 2015, 10 166 patients were eligible for the study. 9895 (97%) patients had available follow-up information and were included in analyses. Median follow-up was 33·4 months (IQR 24·0-40·7). Treatment with direct-acting antivirals was initiated during follow-up in 7344 patients, and 2551 patients remained untreated at the final follow-up visit. During follow-up, 218 patients died (129 treated, 89 untreated), 258 reported hepatocellular carcinoma (187 treated, 71 untreated), and 106 had decompensated cirrhosis (74 treated, 32 untreated). Exposure to direct-acting antivirals was associated with increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·77, 95% CI 2·07-3·71) and decompensated cirrhosis (3·83, 2·29-6·42). After adjustment for variables (age, sex, body-mass index, geographical origin, infection route, fibrosis score, HCV treatment-naive, HCV genotype, alcohol consumption, diabetes, arterial hypertension, biological variables, and model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with cirrhosis), exposure to direct-acting antivirals was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0·48, 95% CI 0·33-0·70) and hepatocellular carcinoma (0·66, 0·46-0·93), and was not associated with decompensated cirrhosis (1·14, 0·57-2·27). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with direct-acting antivirals is associated with reduced risk for mortality and hepatocellular carcinoma and should be considered in all patients with chronic HCV infection. FUNDING: INSERM-ANRS (France Recherche Nord & Sud Sida-HIV Hépatites), ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche), DGS (Direction Générale de la Santé), MSD, Janssen, Gilead, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Roche.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy. METHODS: We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT. RESULTS: A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

A novel spleen-dedicated stiffness measurement by FibroScan® improves the screening of high-risk oesophageal varices.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed to diagnose oesophageal varices (EV), including the recent Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices (HRV). Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) with the standard FibroScan® (SSM@50Hz) has been evaluated. However, the EV grading could be underestimated because of a ceiling threshold (75 kPa) of the SSM@50Hz. The aims were to evaluate SSM by a novel spleen-dedicated FibroScan® (SSM@100Hz) for EV diagnosis compared with SSM@50Hz, other validated NITs and Baveno VI criteria. METHODS: This prospective multicentre study consecutively enrolled patients with chronic liver disease; blood data, endoscopy, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz were collected. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty patients met inclusion criteria. SSM@100Hz success rate was significantly higher than that of SSM@50Hz (92.5% vs 76.0%, P < .001). SSM@100Hz accuracy for the presence of EV (AUC = 0.728) and HRV (AUC = 0.756) was higher than in other NITs. SSM@100Hz AUC for large EV (0.782) was higher than SSM@50Hz (0.720, P = .027). AUC for HRV with SSM@100Hz (0.780) was higher than with LSM (0.615, P < .001). The spared endoscopy rate of Baveno VI criteria (8.1%) was significantly increased by the combination to SSM@50Hz (26.5%) or SSM@100Hz (38.9%, P < .001 vs others). The missed HRV rate was, respectively, 0% and 4.7% for combinations. CONCLUSIONS: SSM@100Hz is a new performant non-invasive marker for EV and HRV providing a higher accuracy than SSM@50Hz and other NITs. The combination of Baveno VI criteria and SSM@100Hz significantly increased the spared endoscopy rate compared to Baveno VI criteria alone or combined with SSM@50Hz. Clinical trial number: NCT02180113.

New sequential combinations of non-invasive fibrosis tests provide an accurate diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Advanced liver fibrosis is an important diagnostic target in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as it defines the subgroup of patients with impaired prognosis. The non-invasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis is currently limited by the suboptimal positive predictive value and the grey zone (representing indeterminate diagnosis) of fibrosis tests. Here, we aimed to determine the best combination of non-invasive tests for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 938 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were randomized 2:1 into derivation and validation sets. All patients underwent liver stiffness measurement with vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and blood fibrosis tests (NAFLD fibrosis score, Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], Fibrotest, Hepascore, FibroMeter). FibroMeterVCTE, which combines VCTE results and FibroMeter markers in a single test, was also calculated in all patients. RESULTS: For the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis, VCTE was significantly more accurate than the blood tests (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.840 ±â€¯0.013, p ≤0.005). FibroMeter was the most accurate blood test (AUROC: 0.793 ±â€¯0.015, p ≤0.017). The combinatory test FibroMeterVCTE outperformed VCTE and blood tests (AUROC: 0.866 ±â€¯0.012, p ≤0.005). The sequential combination of FIB4 then FibroMeterVCTE (FIB4-FMVCTE algorithm) or VCTE then FibroMeterVCTE (VCTE-FMVCTE algorithm) provided an excellent diagnostic accuracy of 90% for advanced fibrosis, with liver biopsy only required to confirm the diagnosis in 20% of cases. The FIB4-FMVCTE and VCTE-FMVCTE algorithms were significantly more accurate than the pragmatic algorithms currently proposed. CONCLUSION: The sequential combination of fibrosis tests in the FIB4-FMVCTE and VCTE-FMVCTE algorithms provides a highly accurate solution for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. These algorithms should now be validated for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis in diabetology or primary care settings. LAY SUMMARY: The evaluation of liver fibrosis is mandatory in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), as advanced fibrosis identifies the subgroup of patients with impaired prognosis. FibroMeterVCTE is a new fibrosis test combining blood markers and the result of vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) into a single diagnostic test. Our results show that FibroMeterVCTE outperforms other blood fibrosis tests and VCTE alone for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in a large multi-centric cohort of 938 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Sequential algorithms using a simple blood test or VCTE as a first-line procedure, then FibroMeterVCTE as a second-line test accurately classified 90% of patients.

Criteria to Determine Reliability of Noninvasive Assessment of Liver Fibrosis With Virtual Touch Quantification.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Virtual Touch Quantification (VTQ) evaluates liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases by measuring shear wave speed in the liver. We aimed to determine the reliability criteria of VTQ examination. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 1094 patients with chronic liver disease from November 2009 through October 2016 at Angers University Hospital, and between April 2010 and May 2015 at Bordeaux University Hospital, in France. All patients underwent liver biopsy analysis (reference standard), and VTQ examination was made by experienced operators on the same day, or no more than 3 months before or afterward. Advanced liver fibrosis was defined as fibrosis stage F ≥ 3 according to the scoring system of the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network, or fibrosis stage F ≥ 2 according to the Metavir scoring system. The diagnostic accuracy of VTQ in detection of advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and the rate of correctly classified patients. Reliability criteria were defined from the intrinsic characteristics of VTQ examination, which were shown to influence the diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: VTQ identified patients with advanced fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.773 ± 0.014 and correctly classified 72.0% of patients using a diagnostic cut-off value of 1.37 m/s. VTQ identified patients with cirrhosis with an AUROC value of 0.839 ± 0.014 and correctly classified 78.4% of patients using a cut-off value of 1.87 m/s. The reliability of VTQ decreased with an increasing ratio of interquartile range/median (IQR/M) in patients with intermediate-high VTQ results. We defined 3 reliability categories for VTQ: unreliable (IQR/M ≥0.35 with VTQ result ≥1.37 m/s), reliable (IQR/M ≥0.35 with VTQ result <1.37 m/s or IQR/M 0.15-0.34), and very reliable (IQR/M <0.15). For advanced fibrosis, VTQ correctly classified 57.8% of patients in the unreliable group, 73.7% of patients in the reliable group, and 80.9% of patients in the very reliable group (P < .001); for cirrhosis, these values were 50.0%, 83.4%, and 92.6%, respectively (P < .001). Of the VTQ examinations made, 21.4% were unreliable, 55.0% were reliable, and 23.6% were very reliable. The skin-liver capsule distance was independently associated with an unreliable VTQ examination, which occurred in 52.7% of patients with a distance of 30 mm or more. CONCLUSIONS: In a study to determine the reliability of VTQ findings, compared with results from biopsy analysis, we assigned VTQ examinations to 3 categories (unreliable, reliable, and very reliable). VTQ examinations with IQR/M ≥0.35 and ≥1.37 m/s had very low diagnostic accuracy. Our reliability criteria for liver fibrosis assessment with VTQ will help physicians to accurately evaluate the severity of chronic liver diseases and monitor their progression.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct Antiviral Therapy for HCV in Patients With Cirrhosis Included in Surveillance Programs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Retrospective studies have found an unexpectedly high incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis who received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents. We analyzed data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort to compare the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who received DAA therapy vs patients treated with interferon (IFN). METHODS: Data were collected from 1270 patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-associated cirrhosis recruited from 2006 through 2012 at 35 centers in France. For descriptive purpose, patients were classified as follows: patients who received DAA treatment (DAA group, n = 336), patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following an IFN-based regimen (SVR-IFN group, n = 495), or patients who never received DAA treatment and never had an SVR following IFN therapy (non-SVR group, n = 439). The patients were included in HCC surveillance programs based on ultrasound examination every 6 months, and clinical and biological data were recorded. To account for confounding by indication due to differences in patient characteristics at treatment initiation, we constructed a time-dependent Cox regression model weighted by the inverse probability of treatment and censoring (IPTCW) to assess the treatment effects of DAA on time until HCC. RESULTS: Compared with patients in the SVR-IFN group, patients in the DAA group were older, higher proportions had diabetes or portal hypertension, and liver function was more severely impaired. The crude 3-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 5.9% in the DAA group, 3.1% in the SVR-IFN group, and 12.7% in the non-SVR group (overall P < .001; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] for HCC 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-3.84; P = .030 for the DAA group vs the SVR-IFN group). HCC characteristics were similar among groups. Among patients with HCC, the DAA group received less-frequent HCC screening than the other 2 groups (P = .002). After Cox analyses weighted by the IPTCW, we found no statistically significant increase in risk of HCC associated with DAA use (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.46-1.73; P = .73). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort reveals that the apparent increase in HCC incidence observed in patients with cirrhosis treated with DAAs compared with patients who achieved SVR following an IFN therapy can be explained by patient characteristics (age, diabetes, reduced liver function) and lower screening intensity.

Compliance With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Guidelines Associated With Increased Lead-Time Adjusted Survival of Patients With Compensated Viral Cirrhosis: A Multi-Center Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine how compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines affects survival times of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis who developed HCC. METHODS: We collected data from the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir study, from March 2006 through June 2012, on 1671 patients with biopsy-proven viral cirrhosis and no previous liver complications who were undergoing surveillance for HCC at 35 centers in France. Only 216 patients who developed HCC during the follow-up period were included in the analysis. Patients were considered to be compliant with surveillance guidelines if the time between their last surveillance image evaluation and diagnosis of HCC were fewer than 7 months and noncompliant if this time was 7 months or longer. RESULTS: HCC was detected in 216 patients, at a median follow-up time of 59.7 months. Of these patients, 140 (80.5%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 135 (69.9%) received first-line curative treatment (15 underwent transplantation, 29 underwent resection, 89 received percutaneous ablation, and 2 received resection and percutaneous ablation), and 129 (60.0%) were compliant with surveillance guidelines. Seventy-nine of the patients with HCC died; 49 deaths were associated with tumor progression. After lead-time adjustment, overall survival (OS) time was longer in patients compliant with surveillance guidelines (median OS time, 53.2 months) than noncompliant patients (median OS time, 25.4 months) (P = .0107); this difference remained significant even when we changed lead time assumptions. In multivariate analysis adjusted for a propensity score, compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines was associated with low tumor burden, allocation of curative treatment, and increased OS time compared with noncompliance (hazard ratio for OS, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.14; P = .0150). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we associated compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines (fewer than 7 months between image evaluations) with early diagnosis, allocation of curative treatment, and longer adjusted OS of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis and a diagnosis of HCC.

Non-virological factors are drivers of hepatocellular carcinoma in virosuppressed hepatitis B cirrhosis: Results of ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort.

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mainly in Asian patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aimed to decipher the environmental and virological factors associated with HCC occurrence and validate risk scoring systems in a French multicentre prospective cohort of HBV cirrhotic patients. Patients with biopsy-proven Child-Pugh A viral cirrhosis included in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort who were HBsAg(+) without hepatitis C coinfection were selected for: (a) interview through a standardized questionnaire reporting coffee consumption and HCC familial history; (b) HBsAg quantification using baseline and sequential 2-year frozen sera; (c) baseline HBV genotype determination; and (d) assessment of risk factors and applicability of HCC risk scores (Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox models). Among 317 patients studied (261 men, median age 53 years, past or ongoing antiviral treatment 93.3% and baseline detectable HBV DNA in 88 patients), the baseline and 2-year median HBsAg levels were 810 and 463 IU/mL, respectively. After a median follow-up of 65.2 months, 27 HCC cases were diagnosed (annual incidence: 1.6%). Three factors were independently associated with HCC occurrence: age > 50 years, platelets ≤ 150 × 103 /mm3 and body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 . Two out of five risk scores were validated, and the most accurate was PAGE-B at 1 year. Moreover, HCC in patients without maintained virological suppression seems more aggressive and less accessible to curative treatment. In conclusion, in French patients with HBV cirrhosis mostly virally suppressed, independent HCC risk factors were host-related (age, obesity) or linked to the severity of cirrhosis (thrombopenia), and the European PAGE-B score was the most accurate risk score.

Extrahepatic cancers are the leading cause of death in patients achieving hepatitis B virus control or hepatitis C virus eradication.

Data on extrahepatic cancers (EHCs) in compensated viral cirrhosis are limited. The objective of the prospective multicenter Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA et les Hépatites virales CO12 CirVir cohort was to assess the occurrence of all clinical events in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis, including all types of cancer. Patients with the following inclusion criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis, (2) Child-Pugh A, or (3) absence of previous liver complications including primary liver cancer (PLC). Patients were followed up prospectively every 6 months. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated according to age and gender using 5-year periods. The impact of sustained viral response (SVR) in HCV patients and maintained viral suppression in HBV patients were assessed using time-dependent analysis. A total of 1,671 patients were enrolled between 2006 and 2012 (median age, 54.9 years; men, 67.3%; HCV, 1,323; HBV, 317; HCV-HBV, 31). Metabolic features and excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption were recorded in 15.2%, 36.4%, and 56.4% of cases, respectively. After a median follow-up of 59.7 months, 227 PLCs were diagnosed (5-year cumulative incidence [CumI] 13.4%) and 93 patients developed EHC (14 patients with lymphoid or related tissue cancer and 79 with solid tissue cancer; 5-year EHC CumI, 5.9%). Compared to the general French population, patients were younger at cancer diagnosis, with significantly higher risk of EHC in HCV patients (SMR, 1.31; 95 confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.64; P = 0.017) and after SVR (SMR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.08-2.22; P = 0.013). EHC was the fourth leading cause of death in the whole cohort and the first in patients with viral control/eradication. CONCLUSION: Compared to the general French population, HCV cirrhosis is associated with a higher risk of EHC and the first cause of death in patients with viral cirrhosis who achieve virological control/eradication. (Hepatology 2018).