Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth; we attribute $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events, respectively. In an emissions scenario consistent with current mitigation pledges, increased ENSO amplitude and teleconnections from warming are projected to cause $84 trillion in 21st-century economic losses, but these effects are shaped by stochastic variation in the sequence of El Niño and La Niña events. Our results highlight the sensitivity of the economy to climate variability independent of warming and the potential for future losses due to anthropogenic intensification of such variability.

Cultivating Food Safety Together: Insights About the Future of Produce Safety in the U.S. Controlled Environment Agriculture Sector.

Controlled environment agriculture (CEA) is a rapidly growing sector that presents unique challenges and opportunities in ensuring food safety. This manuscript highlights critical gaps and needs to promote food safety in CEA systems as identified by stakeholders (n=47) at the Strategizing to Advance Future Extension andResearch (S.A.F.E.R.) CEA conference held in April 2023 at The Ohio State University's Ohio CEA Research Center. Feedback collected at the conference was analyzed using an emergent thematic analysis approach to determine key areas of focus. Research-based guidance is specific to the type of commodity, production system type, and size. Themes include the need for improved supply chain control, cleaning, and sanitization practices, pathogen preventive controls and mitigation methods and training and education. Discussions surrounding supply chain control underscored the significance of the need for approaches to mitigate foodborne pathogen contamination. Effective cleaning and sanitization practices are vital to maintaining a safe production environment, with considerations such as establishing standard operating procedures, accounting for hygienic equipment design, and managing the microbial communities within the system. Data analysis further highlights the need for risk assessments, validated pathogen detection methods, and evidence-based guidance in microbial reduction. In addition, training and education were identified as crucial in promoting a culture of food safety within CEA. The development of partnerships between industry, regulatory, and research institutions are needed to advance data-driven guidance and practices across the diverse range of CEA operations and deemed essential for addressing challenges and advancing food safety practices in CEA. Considering these factors, the CEA industry can enhance food safety practices, foster consumer trust, and support its long-term sustainability.

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth.

Increased extreme heat is among the clearest impacts of global warming, but the economic effects of heat waves are poorly understood. Using subnational economic data, extreme heat metrics measuring the temperature of the hottest several days in each year, and an ensemble of climate models, we quantify the effect of extreme heat intensity on economic growth globally. We find that human-caused increases in heat waves have depressed economic output most in the poor tropical regions least culpable for warming. Cumulative 1992-2013 losses from anthropogenic extreme heat likely fall between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion globally. Losses amount to 6.7% of Gross Domestic Product per capita per year for regions in the bottom income decile, but only 1.5% for regions in the top income decile. Our results have the potential to inform adaptation investments and demonstrate how global inequality is both a cause and consequence of the unequal burden of climate change.