A collaboratively produced model of service design for children and young people with common mental health problems.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effectiveness of, and implementation complexities associated with, service delivery models for children and young people (CYP) experiencing 'common' mental health problems such as anxiety, depression, behavioural difficulties and self-harm. This paper outlines how a model for high-quality service design for this population group was developed by identifying available services, their effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability, and the barriers and enablers to access. METHODS: Sequential, mixed-methods design, combining evidence syntheses (scoping and integrative reviews of the international literature) with primary research (a collective case study in England and Wales). Data from these two elements were collaboratively synthesised in a subsequent model-building phase. RESULTS: The scoping review yielded a service model typology. The integrative review found effectiveness evidence only for four models: collaborative care (the only service model to also have cost-effectiveness evidence), outreach approaches, brief intervention services and an organisational framework called 'Availability, Responsiveness and Continuity'. No service model seemed more acceptable than others. Three case study themes were identified: pathways to support; service engagement; and learning and understanding. The model-building phase identified rapid access, learning self-care skills, individualised support, clear information, compassionate and competent staff and aftercare planning as core characteristics of high-quality services. These characteristics were underpinned by four organisational qualities: values that respect confidentiality; engagement and involvement; collaborative relationships; and a learning culture. CONCLUSIONS: A consistent organisational evidence-base for service design and delivery in CYP's mental health spanning many years appears to have had little impact on service provision in England and Wales. Rather than impose - often inflexible and untested - specific local or national models or frameworks, those commissioning, designing and delivering mental health services for CYP should (re)focus on already known, fundamental components necessary for high-quality services. These fundamental components have been integrated into a collaboratively produced general model of service design for CYP with common mental health problems. While this general model is primarily focused on British service provision, it is broad enough to have utility for international audiences.

Bridging pre-surgical endocrine therapy for breast cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the B-MaP-C study.

PURPOSE: The B-MaP-C study investigated changes to breast cancer care that were necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present a follow-up analysis of those patients commenced on bridging endocrine therapy (BrET), whilst they were awaiting surgery due to reprioritisation of resources. METHODS: This multicentre, multinational cohort study recruited 6045 patients from the UK, Spain and Portugal during the peak pandemic period (Feb-July 2020). Patients on BrET were followed up to investigate the duration of, and response to, BrET. This included changes in tumour size to reflect downstaging potential, and changes in cellular proliferation (Ki67), as a marker of prognosis. RESULTS: 1094 patients were prescribed BrET, over a median period of 53 days (IQR 32-81 days). The majority of patients (95.6%) had strong ER expression (Allred score 7-8/8). Very few patients required expedited surgery, due to lack of response (1.2%) or due to lack of tolerance/compliance (0.8%). There were small reductions in median tumour size after 3 months' treatment duration; median of 4 mm [IQR - 20, 4]. In a small subset of patients (n = 47), a drop in cellular proliferation (Ki67) occurred in 26 patients (55%), from high (Ki67 ≥ 10%) to low (< 10%), with at least one month's duration of BrET. DISCUSSION: This study describes real-world usage of pre-operative endocrine therapy as necessitated by the pandemic. BrET was found to be tolerable and safe. The data support short-term (≤ 3 months) usage of pre-operative endocrine therapy. Longer-term use should be investigated in future trials.

An economic evaluation of universal and targeted case-finding strategies for identifying antenatal depression: a model-based analysis comparing common case-finding instruments.

Half of women with depression in the perinatal period are not identified in routine care, and missed cases reflect inequalities in other areas of maternity care. Case finding (screening) for depression in pregnant women may be a cost-effective strategy to improve identification, and targeted case finding directs finite resources towards the greatest need. We compared the cost-effectiveness of three case-finding strategies: no case finding, universal (all pregnant women), and targeted (only pregnant women with risk factors for antenatal depression, i.e. history of anxiety/depression, age < 20 years, and adverse life events). A decision tree model was developed to represent case finding (at around 20 weeks gestation) and subsequent treatment for antenatal depression (up to 40 weeks gestation). Costs include case finding and treatment. Health benefits are measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The sensitivity and specificity of case-finding instruments and prevalence and severity of antenatal depression were estimated from a cohort study of pregnant women. Other model parameters were derived from published literature and expert consultation. The most cost-effective case-finding strategy was a two-stage strategy comprising the Whooley questions followed by the PHQ-9. The mean costs were £52 (universal), £61 (no case finding), and £62 (targeted case finding). Both case-finding strategies improve health compared with no case finding. Universal case finding is cost-saving. Costs associated with targeted case finding are similar to no case finding, with greater health gains, although targeted case finding is not cost-effective compared with universal case finding. Universal case finding for antenatal depression is cost-saving compared to no case finding and more cost-effective than targeted case finding.

Evidence-based Recovery Colleges: developing a typology based on organisational characteristics, fidelity and funding.

PURPOSE: Recovery Colleges (RCs) have been implemented across England with wide variation in organisational characteristics. The purpose of this study is to describe RCs across England in terms of organisational and student characteristics, fidelity and annual spending, to generate a RC typology based on characteristics and to explore the relationship between characteristics and fidelity. METHODS: All RC in England meeting criteria on recovery orientation, coproduction and adult learning were included. Managers completed a survey capturing characteristics, fidelity and budget. Hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted to identify common groupings and generate an RC typology. RESULTS: Participants comprised 63 (72%) of 88 RC in England. Fidelity scores were high (median 11, IQR 9-13). Both NHS and strengths-focussed RCs were associated with higher fidelity. The median annual budget was £200,000 (IQR £127,000-£300,000) per RC. The median cost per student was £518 (IQR £275-£840), cost per course designed was £5,556 (IQR £3,000-£9,416) and per course run was £1,510 (IQR £682-£3,030). The total annual budget across England for RCs is an estimated £17.6 m including £13.4 m from NHS budgets, with 11,000 courses delivered to 45,500 students. CONCLUSION: Although the majority of RCs had high levels of fidelity, there were sufficiently pronounced differences in other key characteristics to generate a typology of RCs. This typology might prove important for understanding student outcomes and how they are achieved and for commissioning decisions. Staffing and co-producing new courses are key drivers of spending. The estimated budget for RCs was less than 1% of NHS mental health spending.

Acknowledging Patient Heterogeneity in Economic Evaluations in Schizophrenia: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: Schizophrenia is a severe mental illness with heterogeneous etiology, range of symptoms, and course of illness. Cost-effectiveness analysis often applies averages from populations, which disregards patient heterogeneity even though there are a range of methods available to acknowledge patient heterogeneity. This review evaluates existing economic evaluations of interventions in schizophrenia to understand how patient heterogeneity is currently reflected in economic evaluation. METHODS: Electronic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO via Ovid and the Health Technology Assessment database were run to identify full economic evaluations of interventions aiming to reduce the symptoms associated with schizophrenia. Two levels of screening were used, and explicit inclusion criteria were applied. Prespecified data extraction and critical appraisal were performed. RESULTS: Seventy-six relevant studies were identified. More than half (41 of 76) of the articles acknowledged patient heterogeneity in some way through discussion or methods. There was a range of patient characteristics considered, including demographics and socioeconomic factors (eg, age, educational level, ethnicity), clinical characteristics (eg, symptom severity, comorbidities), and preferences (eg, preferences related to outcomes or symptoms). Subgroup analyses were rarely reported (8 of 76). CONCLUSIONS: Patient heterogeneity was frequently mentioned in studies but was rarely thoroughly investigated in the identified economic evaluations. When investigated, included patient characteristics and methods were found to be heterogeneous. Understanding and acknowledging patient heterogeneity may alter the conclusions of cost-effectiveness evaluations; subsequently, we would encourage further research in this area.

Awareness of fetal movements and care package to reduce fetal mortality (AFFIRM): a trial-based and model-based cost-effectiveness analysis from a stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The AFFIRM intervention aimed to reduce stillbirth and neonatal deaths by increasing awareness of reduced fetal movements (RFM) and implementing a care pathway when women present with RFM. Although there is uncertainty regarding the clinical effectiveness of the intervention, the aim of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial was conducted in thirty-three hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. All women giving birth at the study sites during the analysis period were included in the study. The costs associated with implementing the intervention were estimated from audits of RFM attendances and electronic healthcare records. Trial data were used to estimate a cost per stillbirth prevented was for AFFIRM versus standard care. A decision analytic model was used to estimate the costs and number of perinatal deaths (stillbirths + early neonatal deaths) prevented if AFFIRM were rolled out across Great Britain for one year. Key assumptions were explored in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Direct costs to implement AFFIRM were an estimated £95,126 per 1,000 births. Compared to standard care, the cost per stillbirth prevented was estimated to be between £86,478 and being dominated (higher costs, no benefit). The estimated healthcare budget impact of implementing AFFIRM across Great Britain was a cost increase of £61,851,400/year. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal deaths are relatively rare events in the UK which can increase uncertainty in economic evaluations. This evaluation estimated a plausible range of costs to prevent baby deaths which can inform policy decisions in maternity services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov , number NCT01777022 .

Women's preferences for antenatal care in Tanzania: a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: The stillbirth rate in Tanzania remains high. Greater engagement with antenatal care may help to reduce stillbirths. We investigated which characteristics of antenatal care clinics are preferred by pregnant women in Tanzania. METHODS: We conducted an unlabelled discrete choice experiment (DCE) with think-aloud interviews. Participants were pregnant women, regardless of parity/gestation, from the Mwanza and Manyara regions of Tanzania. We asked participants to choose which of two hypothetical antenatal clinics they would rather attend. Clinics were described in terms of transport mode, cleanliness, comfort, visit content, and staff attitude. Each participant made 12 choices during the experiment, and a purposively selected sub-set simultaneously verbalised the rationale for their choices. We analysed DCE responses using a multinomial logit model adjusted for study region, and think-aloud data using the Framework approach. RESULTS: We recruited 251 participants split evenly between the 2 geographical regions. Staff attitude was the most important attribute in clinic choice and dominated the think-aloud narratives. Other significant attributes were mode of transport (walking was preferred) and content of clinic visit (preference was stronger with each additional element of care provided). Cleanliness of the clinic was not a significant attribute overall and the think-aloud exercise identified a willingness to trade-off cleanliness and comfort for respectful care. CONCLUSION: Women would prefer to attend a clinic with kind staff which they can access easily. This study suggests that exploration of barriers to providing respectful care, and enabling staff to deliver it, are important areas for future investment. The DCE shows us what average preferences are; antenatal care that is aligned with identified preferences should increase uptake and engagement versus care which does not acknowledge them.

Better maternity care pathways in pregnancies after stillbirth or neonatal death: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Around 1 in 150 babies are stillborn or die in the first month of life in the UK. Most women conceive again, and subsequent pregnancies are often characterised by feelings of stress and anxiety, persisting beyond the birth. Psychological distress increases the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes and longer-term parenting difficulties. Appropriate emotional support in subsequent pregnancies is key to ensure the wellbeing of women and families. Substantial variability in existing care has been reported, including fragmentation and poor communication. A new care package improving midwifery continuity and access to emotional support during subsequent pregnancy could improve outcomes. However, no study has assessed the feasibility of a full-scale trial to test effectiveness in improving outcomes and cost-effectiveness for the National Health Service (NHS). METHODS: A prospective, mixed-methods pre-and post-cohort study, in two Northwest England Maternity Units. Thirty-eight women, (≤ 20 weeks' gestation, with a previous stillbirth, or neonatal death) were offered the study intervention (allocation of a named midwife care coordinator and access to group and online support). Sixteen women receiving usual care were recruited in the 6 months preceding implementation of the intervention. Outcome data were collected at 2 antenatal and 1 postnatal visit(s). Qualitative interviews captured experiences of care and research processes with women (n = 20), partners (n = 5), and midwives (n = 8). RESULTS: Overall recruitment was 90% of target, and 77% of women completed the study. A diverse sample reflected the local population, but non-English speaking was a barrier to participation. Study processes and data collection methods were acceptable. Those who received increased midwifery continuity valued the relationship with the care coordinator and perceived positive impacts on pregnancy experiences. However, the anticipated increase in antenatal continuity for direct midwife contacts was not observed for the intervention group. Take-up of in-person support groups was also limited. CONCLUSIONS: Women and partners welcomed the opportunity to participate in research. Continuity of midwifery care was supported as a beneficial strategy to improve care and support in pregnancy after the death of a baby by both parents and professionals. Important barriers to implementation included changes in leadership, service pressures and competing priorities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17447733 first registration 13/02/2018.

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK 'Alert Level 4' phase of the B-MaP-C study.

BACKGROUND: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. METHODS: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated 'standard' or 'COVID-altered', in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. FINDINGS: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had 'COVID-altered' management. 'Bridging' endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2-9%) using 'NHS Predict'. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of 'COVID-altered' management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown.

Clinical and cost effectiveness of arthritis gloves in rheumatoid arthritis (A-GLOVES): randomised controlled trial with economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Arthritis (or compression) gloves are widely prescribed to people with rheumatoid arthritis and other forms of hand arthritis. They are prescribed for daytime wear to reduce hand pain and improve hand function, and/or night-time wear to reduce pain, improve sleep and reduce morning stiffness. However, evidence for their effectiveness is limited. The aims of this study were to investigate the clinical and cost effectiveness of arthritis gloves compared to placebo gloves on hand pain, stiffness and function in people with rheumatoid arthritis and persistent hand pain. METHODS: A parallel randomised controlled trial, in adults (≥ 18 years) with rheumatoid or undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis at 16 National Health Service sites in the UK. Patients with persistent hand pain affecting function and/or sleep were eligible. Randomisation (1:1) was stratified by recent change (or not) in medication, using permuted blocks of random sizes. Three-quarter-finger length arthritis gloves (Isotoner®: applying 23-32 mmHg pressure) (intervention) were compared to loose-fitting placebo gloves (Jobskin® classic: providing no/minimal pressure) (control). Both gloves (considered to have similar thermal qualities) were provided by occupational therapists. Patients and outcome assessors were blinded; clinicians were not. The primary outcome was dominant hand pain on activity (0-10) at 12 weeks, analysed using linear regression and intention to treat principles. RESULTS: Two hundred six participants were randomly assigned (103 per arm) and 163 (84 intervention: 79 control) completed 12-week follow-up. Hand pain improved by 1.0 (intervention) and 1.2 (control), an adjusted mean difference of 0.10 (95% CI: - 0.47 to 0.67; p = 0.72). Adverse events were reported by 51% of intervention and 36% of control group participants; with 6 and 7% respectively, discontinuing glove wear. Provision of arthritis gloves cost £129, with no additional benefit. CONCLUSION: The trial provides evidence of no clinically important effect of arthritis gloves on any of the trial outcomes (hand pain, function and stiffness) and arthritis gloves are not cost-effective. The clinical and cost-effectiveness results support ceasing provision of arthritis gloves in routine clinical practice. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN25892131 ; Registered 05/09/2016: retrospectively registered.

Impact of an intervention to support hearing and vision in dementia: The SENSE-Cog Field Trial.

OBJECTIVES: Hearing, vision, and cognitive impairment commonly co-occur in older adults. Improving sensory function may positively impact outcomes in people with dementia (PwD). We developed a "sensory intervention" (SI) to support hearing and vision in PwD. Here, we report the findings of an international open-label field trial, and nested case series, to explore the impact of the SI on dementia-related outcomes. METHODS: This was a home-based trial conducted in France, England, and Cyprus. Participants were people with mild-to-moderate dementia and hearing and/or vision impairment (n = 19) and their study partners (unpaid carers; n = 19). The "basic" SI included a hearing and vision assessment and provision of glasses and/or hearing aids. A subsample received the "extended" SI with additional weekly visits from a sensory support therapist (SST). Exploratory analyses of dementia-related, health utility and resource utilisation outcomes were performed. RESULTS: Quality of life (QoL) and sensory functional ability improved. Change in QoL exceeded the threshold for a minimum clinically important difference. There was a modest improvement (in absolute terms) post intervention in behavioural disturbance, self-efficacy, and relationship satisfaction. Study partner time assisting instrumental activities of daily living (iADL) and supervision decreased by about 22 and 38 hours per month, respectively, although time for personal ADL support increased. Qualitative data supported effectiveness of the intervention: PwD were more socially engaged, less isolated, less dependent on study partners, and had improved functional ability and communication. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the need for a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention.

Cost-effectiveness evidence for strategies to promote or support breastfeeding: a systematic search and narrative literature review.

BACKGROUND: Global health policy recommends exclusive breastfeeding until infants are 6 months. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of breastfeeding promotion strategies. This paper presents a systematic search and narrative review of economic evaluations of strategies to support or promote breastfeeding. The aim of the review is to bring together current knowledge to guide researchers and commissioners towards potentially cost-effective strategies to promote or support breastfeeding. METHODS: Searches were conducted of electronic databases, including MEDLINE and Scopus, for economic evaluations relevant to breastfeeding, published up to August 2019. Records were screened against pre-specified inclusion/exclusion criteria and quality was assessed using a published checklist. Costs reported in included studies underwent currency conversion and inflation to a single year and currency so that they could be compared. The review protocol was registered on the PROSPERO register of literature reviews (ID, CRD42019141721). RESULTS: There were 212 non-duplicate citations. Four were included in the review, which generally indicated that interventions were cost-effective. Two studies reported that breastfeeding promotion for low-birth weight babies in critical care is associated with lower costs and greater health benefits than usual care and so is likely to be cost-effective. Peer-support for breastfeeding was associated with longer duration of exclusivity with costs ranging from £19-£107 per additional month (two studies). CONCLUSIONS: There is limited published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of strategies to promote breastfeeding, although the quality of the current evidence is reasonably high. Future studies should integrate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies with economic analyses.

Long-term clinical and cost-effectiveness of collaborative care (versus usual care) for people with mental-physical multimorbidity: cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Collaborative care can support the treatment of depression in people with long-term conditions, but long-term benefits and costs are unknown.AimsTo explore the long-term (24-month) effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of collaborative care in people with mental-physical multimorbidity. METHOD: A cluster randomised trial compared collaborative care (integrated physical and mental healthcare) with usual care for depression alongside diabetes and/or coronary heart disease. Depression symptoms were measured by the symptom checklist-depression scale (SCL-D13). The economic evaluation was from the perspective of the English National Health Service. RESULTS: 191 participants were allocated to collaborative care and 196 to usual care. At 24 months, the mean SCL-D13 score was 0.27 (95% CI, -0.48 to -0.06) lower in the collaborative care group alongside a gain of 0.14 (95% CI, 0.06-0.21) quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The cost per QALY gained was £13 069. CONCLUSIONS: In the long term, collaborative care reduces depression and is potentially cost-effective at internationally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds.Declaration of interestNone.

Saving babies' lives project impact and results evaluation (SPiRE): a mixed methodology study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing stillbirth and early neonatal death is a national priority in the UK. Current evidence indicates this is potentially achievable through application of four key interventions within routine maternity care delivered as the National Health Service (NHS) England's Saving Babies' Lives care bundle. However, there is significant variation in the degree of implementation of the care bundle between and within maternity units and the effectiveness in reducing stillbirth and improving service delivery has not yet been evaluated. This study aims to evaluate the impact of implementing the care bundle on UK maternity services and perinatal outcomes. METHODS: The Saving Babies' Lives Project Impact and Results Evaluation (SPiRE) study is a multicentre evaluation of maternity care delivered through the Saving Babies' Lives care bundle using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. The study will be conducted in twenty NHS Hospital Trusts and will include approximately 100,000 births. It involves participation by both service users and care providers. To determine the impact of the care bundle on pregnancy outcomes, birth data and other clinical measures will be extracted from maternity databases and case-note audit from before and after implementation. Additionally, this study will employ questionnaires with organisational leads and review clinical guidelines to assess how resources, leadership and governance may affect implementation in diverse hospital settings. The cost of implementing the care bundle, and the cost per stillbirth avoided, will also be estimated as part of a health economic analysis. The views and experiences of service users and service providers towards maternity care in relation to the care bundle will be also be sought using questionnaires. DISCUSSION: This protocol describes a pragmatic study design which is necessarily limited by the availability of data and limitations of timescales and funding. In particular there was no opportunity to prospectively gather pre-intervention data or design a phased implementation such as a stepped-wedge study. Nevertheless this study will provide useful practice-based evidence which will advance knowledge about the processes that underpin successful implementation of the care bundle so that it can be further developed and refined. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT03231007 (26th July 2017).

The effects of arthritis gloves on people with Rheumatoid Arthritis or Inflammatory Arthritis with hand pain: a study protocol for a multi-centre randomised controlled trial (the A-GLOVES trial).

BACKGROUND: Arthritis gloves are regularly provided as part of the management of people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and undifferentiated (early) inflammatory arthritis (IA). Usually made of nylon and elastane (i.e. Lycra®), these arthritis gloves apply pressure with the aims of relieving hand pain, stiffness and improving hand function. However, a systematic review identified little evidence supporting their use. We therefore designed a trial to compare the effectiveness of the commonest type of arthritis glove provided in the United Kingdom (Isotoner gloves) (intervention) with placebo (control) gloves (i.e. larger arthritis gloves providing similar warmth to the intervention gloves but minimal pressure only) in people with these conditions. METHODS: Participants aged 18 years and over with RA or IA and persistent hand pain will be recruited from National Health Service Trusts in the United Kingdom. Following consent, participants will complete a questionnaire booklet, then be randomly allocated to receive intervention or placebo arthritis gloves. Within three weeks, they will be fitted with the allocated gloves by clinical specialist rheumatology occupational therapists. Twelve weeks (i.e. the primary endpoint) after completing the baseline questionnaire, participants will complete a second questionnaire, including the same measures plus additional questions to explore adherence, benefits and problems with glove-wear. A sub-sample of participants from each group will be interviewed at the end of their participation to explore their views of the gloves received. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the intervention, compared to placebo gloves, will be evaluated over 12 weeks. The primary outcome measure is hand pain during activity. Qualitative interviews will be thematically analysed. DISCUSSION: This study will evaluate the commonest type of arthritis glove (Isotoner) provided in the NHS (i.e. the intervention) compared to a placebo glove. The results will help occupational therapists, occupational therapy services and people with arthritis make informed choices as to the value of arthritis gloves. If effective, arthritis gloves should become more widely available in the NHS to help people with RA and IA manage hand symptoms and improve performance of daily activities, work and leisure. If not, services can determine whether to cease supplying these to reduce service costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry: ISRCTN25892131 Registered 05/09/2016.

Measuring EQ-5D-5L utility values in parents who have experienced perinatal death.

BACKGROUND: Policymakers use clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence to support decisions about health service commissioning. In England, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommend that in cost-effectiveness analyses "effectiveness" is measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), derived from health utility values. The impact of perinatal death (stillbirth/neonatal death) on parents' health utility is currently unknown. This knowledge would improve the robustness of cost-effectiveness evidence for policymakers. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the impact of perinatal death on parents' health utility. METHODS: An online survey conducted with mothers and fathers in England who experienced a perinatal death. Participants reported how long ago their baby died and whether they/their partner subsequently became pregnant again. They were asked to rate their health on the EQ-5D-5L instrument (generic health measure). EQ-5D-5L responses were used to calculate health utility values. These were compared with age-matched values for the general population to estimate a utility shortfall (i.e. health loss) associated with perinatal death. RESULTS: There were 256 survey respondents with a median age of 40 years (IQR 26-40). Median time since death was 27 months (IQR 8-71). The mean utility value of the sample was 0.774 (95% CI 0.752-0.796). Utility values in the sample were 13% lower than general population values (p < 0.05). Over 10 years, this equated to a loss of 1.1 QALYs. This reduction in health utility was driven by anxiety and depression. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal death has important and long-lasting health impacts on parents. Mental health support following perinatal bereavement is especially important.

Estimating the impact on patient safety of enabling the digital transfer of patients' prescription information in the English NHS.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number and burden of medication errors associated with prescription information transfer within the National Health Service (NHS) in England and the impact of implementing an interoperable prescription information system (a single digital prescribing record shared across NHS settings) in reducing these errors. METHODS: We constructed a probabilistic mathematical model. We estimated the number of transition medication errors that would be undetected by standard medicines reconciliation, based on published literature, and scaled this up based on the annual number of hospital admissions. We used published literature to estimate the proportion of errors that lead to harm and applied this to the number of errors to estimate the associated burden (healthcare resource use and deaths). Finally, we used reported effect sizes for electronic prescription information sharing interventions to estimate the impact of implementing an interoperable prescription information system on number of errors and resulting harm. RESULTS: Annually, around 1.8 million (95% credibility interval (CrI) 1.3 to 2.6 million) medication errors were estimated to occur at hospital transitions in England, affecting approximately 380 000 (95% CrI 260 397 to 539 876) patient episodes. Harm from these errors affects around 31 500 (95% CrI 22 407 to 42 906) patients, with 36 500 (95% CrI 25 093 to 52 019) additional bed days of inpatient care (costing around £17.8 million (95% CrI £12.4 to £24.9 million)) and >40 (95% CrI 9 to 146) deaths. Assuming the implementation of an interoperable prescription information system could reduce errors by 10% and 50%, there could be 180 000-913 000 fewer errors, 3000-15 800 fewer people who experience harm and 4-22 lives saved annually. CONCLUSIONS: An interoperable prescription information system could provide major benefits for patient safety. Likely additional benefits include healthcare professional time saved, improved patient experience and care quality, quicker discharge and enhanced cross-organisational medicines optimisation. Our findings provide vital safety and economic evidence for the case to adopt interoperable prescription information systems.

Generating EQ-5D-3L health utility scores from the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale: a perinatal mapping study.

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression (PND) describes depression experienced by parents during pregnancy or in the first year after a baby is born. The EQ-5D instrument (a generic measure of health status) is not often collected in perinatal research, however disease-specific measures, such as the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) are widely used. Mapping can be used to estimate generic health utility index values from disease-specific measures like the EPDS. OBJECTIVE: To develop a mapping algorithm to estimate EQ-5D utility index values from the EPDS. METHODS: Patient-level data from the BaBY PaNDA study (English observational cohort study) provided 1068 observations with paired EPDS and EQ-5D (3-level version; EQ-5D-3L) responses. We compared the performance of six alternative regression model types, each with four specifications of covariates (EPDS score and age: base, squared, and cubed). Model performance (ability to predict utility values) was assessed by ranking mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. Algorithm performance in 3 external datasets was also evaluated. RESULTS: There was moderate correlation between EPDS score and utility values (coefficient: - 0.42). The best performing model type was a two-part model, followed by ordinary least squared. Inclusion of squared and cubed covariates improved model performance. Based on graphs of observed and predicted utility values, the algorithm performed better when utility was above 0.6. CONCLUSIONS: This direct mapping algorithm allows the estimation of health utility values from EPDS scores. The algorithm has good external validity but is likely to perform better in samples with higher health status.