Data Gap: Air Quality Networks Miss Air Pollution from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations.

In the U.S., the agricultural sector is the largest controllable source of several air pollutants, including ammonia (NH3), which is a key precursor to PM2.5 formation. Livestock waste is the dominant contributor to ammonia emissions. In contrast to most controllable air pollutants, satellite records show ammonia mixing ratios are rising. The number of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) that generate considerable livestock waste is also increasing. Spatial and temporal trends in USDA-reported animal numbers normalized by county area at medium and large CAFOs provide plausible explanations for patterns in satellite-derived NH3 over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The correlation between summertime ammonia derived from the European Space Agency's (ESA) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and CAFO animal unit density in 2017 is positive and significant (r = 0.642; p ≈ 0). The temporal changes from 2002 to 2017 in animal unit density and NH3 derived from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are spatially similar. Trends and ambient concentrations of PM2.5 mass in agricultural regions are difficult to assess relative to those of urban population centers given the sparseness of rural monitors in regulatory surface networks. Results suggest that in agricultural areas where ammonia concentrations and animal density are highest, air quality improvement lags behind the national average.

Mulitphase Atmospheric Chemistry in Liquid Water: Impacts and Controllability of Organic Aerosol.

Liquid water is a dominant and critical tropospheric constituent. Over polluted land masses low level cumulus clouds interact with boundary layer aerosol. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest atmospheric layer and is directly influenced by Earth's surface. Water-aerosol interactions are critical to processes that govern the fate and transport of trace species in the Earth system and their impacts on air quality, radiative forcing, and regional hydrological cycling. In the PBL, air parcels rise adiabatically from the surface, and anthropogenically influenced hygroscopic aerosols take up water and serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to form clouds. Water-soluble gases partition to liquid water in wet aerosols and cloud droplets and undergo aqueous-phase photochemistry. Most cloud droplets evaporate, and low volatility material formed during aqueous phase chemistry remains in the condensed phase and adds to aerosol mass. The resulting cloud-processed aerosol has different physicochemical properties compared to the original CCN. Organic species that undergo multiphase chemistry in atmospheric liquid water transform gases to highly concentrated, nonideal ionic aqueous solutions and form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). In recent years, SOA formation modulated by atmospheric waters has received considerable interest.Key uncertainties are related to the chemical nature of hygroscopic aerosols that become CCN and their interaction with organic species. Gas-to-droplet or gas-to-aqueous aerosol partitioning of organic compounds is affected by the intrinsic chemical properties of the organic species in addition to the pre-existing condensed phase. Environmentally relevant conditions for atmospheric aerosol are nonideal. Salt identity and concentration, in addition to aerosol phase state, can dramatically affect organic gas miscibility for many compounds, in particular when ionic strength and salt molality are outside the bounds of limiting laws. For example, Henry's law and Debye-Hückel theory are valid only for dilute aqueous systems uncharacteristic of real atmospheric conditions. Chemical theory is incomplete, and at ambient conditions, this chemistry plays a determining role in total aerosol mass and particle size, controlling factors for air quality and climate-relevant aerosol properties.Accurate predictive skill to understand the impacts of societal choices and policies on air quality and climate requires that models contain correct chemical mechanisms and appropriate feedbacks. Globally, SOA is a dominant contributor to the atmospheric organic aerosol burden, and most mass can be traced back to precursor gas-phase volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from the biosphere. However, organic aerosol concentrations in the Amazon Rainforest, the largest emitter of biogenic VOCs, are generally lower than in U.S. national parks. The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) air quality network, with sites located predominantly in national parks, provides the longest continuous record of organic aerosol measurements in the U.S. Analysis of IMPROVE data provides a useful chemical climatology of changing air resources in response to environmental rules and shifting economic trends. IMPROVE data provides an excellent test bed for case studies to assess model skill to accurately predict changes in organic aerosol concentrations in the context of a changing climate.

Changing Nature of Organic Carbon over the United States.

Total organic carbon (TOC) mass concentrations are decreasing across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We investigate decadal trends in organic carbon (OC) thermal fractions [OC1 (volatilizes at 140 °C), OC2 (280 °C), OC3 (480 °C), OC4 (580 °C)] and pyrolyzed carbon (PC), reported at 121 locations in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network from 2005 to 2015 for 23 regions across the CONUS. Reductions in PC and OC2 drive decreases in TOC (TOC = OC1 + OC2 + OC3 + OC4 + PC) mass concentrations. OC2 decreases by 40% from 2005 to 2015, and PC decreases by 34%. The largest absolute mass decreases occur in the eastern United States, and relative changes normalized to local concentrations are more uniform across the CONUS. OC is converted to organic mass (OM) using region- and season-specific OM:OC ratios. Simulations with GEOS-Chem reproduce OM trends and suggest that decreases across the CONUS are due to aerosol liquid water (ALW) chemistry. Individual model species, notably aerosol derived from isoprene oxidation products and formed in ALW, correlate significantly (p < 0.05) with OM2, even in arid regions. These findings contribute to literature that suggests air quality rules aimed at SO2 and NOx emissions induce the cobenefit of reducing organic particle mass through ALW chemistry, and these benefits extend beyond the eastern United States.

Additional Benefits of Federal Air-Quality Rules: Model Estimates of Controllable Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol.

Atmospheric models that accurately describe the fate and transport of trace species for the right reasons aid in the development of effective air-quality management strategies that safeguard human health. Controllable emissions facilitate the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) to enhance the atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) burden. Previous modeling with the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model predicted that anthropogenic primary organic aerosol (POA) emissions had the greatest impact on BSOA. That experiment included formation processes involving semivolatile partitioning but not aerosol liquid water (ALW), a ubiquitous PM constituent. We conduct 17 summertime CMAQ simulations with updated chemistry and evaluate changes in BSOA due to the removal of individual pollutants and source sectors for the contiguous U.S. CMAQ predicts SO2 from electricity generating units, and mobile source NOX emissions have the largest impacts on BSOA. The removal of anthropogenic NOX, SO2, and POA emissions during the simulation reduces the nationally averaged BSOA by 23, 14, and 8% and PM2.5 by 9.2, 14, and 5.3%, respectively. ALW mass concentrations decrease by 10 and 35% in response to the removal of NOX and SO2 emissions. This work contributes chemical insight into ancillary benefits of Federal NOX and SO2 rules that concurrently reduce organic PM2.5 mass.

Potential of Aerosol Liquid Water to Facilitate Organic Aerosol Formation: Assessing Knowledge Gaps about Precursors and Partitioning.

Isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), glyoxal, and methylglyoxal are ubiquitous water-soluble organic gases (WSOGs) that partition to aerosol liquid water (ALW) and clouds to form aqueous secondary organic aerosol (aqSOA). Recent laboratory-derived Setschenow (or salting) coefficients suggest glyoxal's potential to form aqSOA is enhanced by high aerosol salt molality, or "salting-in". In the southeastern U.S., aqSOA is responsible for a significant fraction of ambient organic aerosol, and correlates with sulfate mass. However, the mechanistic explanation for this correlation remains elusive, and an assessment of the importance of different WSOGs to aqSOA is currently missing. We employ EPA's CMAQ model to the continental U.S. during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) to compare the potential of glyoxal, methylglyoxal, and IEPOX to partition to ALW, as the initial step toward aqSOA formation. Among these three studied compounds, IEPOX is a dominant contributor, ∼72% on average in the continental U.S., to potential aqSOA mass due to Henry's Law constants and molecular weights. Glyoxal contributes significantly, and application of the Setschenow coefficient leads to a greater than 3-fold model domain average increase in glyoxal's aqSOA mass potential. Methylglyoxal is predicted to be a minor contributor. Acid or ammonium - catalyzed ring-opening IEPOX chemistry as well as sulfate-driven ALW and the associated molality may explain positive correlations between SOA and sulfate during SOAS and illustrate ways in which anthropogenic sulfate could regulate biogenic aqSOA formation, ways not presently included in atmospheric models but relevant to development of effective control strategies.

Simulating Aqueous-Phase Isoprene-Epoxydiol (IEPOX) Secondary Organic Aerosol Production During the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS).

The lack of statistically robust relationships between IEPOX (isoprene epoxydiol)-derived SOA (IEPOX SOA) and aerosol liquid water and pH observed during the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) emphasizes the importance of modeling the whole system to understand the controlling factors governing IEPOX SOA formation. We present a mechanistic modeling investigation predicting IEPOX SOA based on Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model algorithms and a recently introduced photochemical box model, simpleGAMMA. We aim to (1) simulate IEPOX SOA tracers from the SOAS Look Rock ground site, (2) compare the two model formulations, (3) determine the limiting factors in IEPOX SOA formation, and (4) test the impact of a hypothetical sulfate reduction scenario on IEPOX SOA. The estimated IEPOX SOA mass variability is in similar agreement (r2 ∼ 0.6) with measurements. Correlations of the estimated and measured IEPOX SOA tracers with observed aerosol surface area (r2 ∼ 0.5-0.7), rate of particle-phase reaction (r2 ∼ 0.4-0.7), and sulfate (r2 ∼ 0.4-0.5) suggest an important role of sulfate in tracer formation via both physical and chemical mechanisms. A hypothetical 25% reduction of sulfate results in ∼70% reduction of IEPOX SOA formation, reaffirming the importance of aqueous phase chemistry in IEPOX SOA production.

The Essential Role for Laboratory Studies in Atmospheric Chemistry.

Laboratory studies of atmospheric chemistry characterize the nature of atmospherically relevant processes down to the molecular level, providing fundamental information used to assess how human activities drive environmental phenomena such as climate change, urban air pollution, ecosystem health, indoor air quality, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Laboratory studies have a central role in addressing the incomplete fundamental knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. This article highlights the evolving science needs for this community and emphasizes how our knowledge is far from complete, hindering our ability to predict the future state of our atmosphere and to respond to emerging global environmental change issues. Laboratory studies provide rich opportunities to expand our understanding of the atmosphere via collaborative research with the modeling and field measurement communities, and with neighboring disciplines.

High Electricity Demand in the Northeast U.S.: PJM Reliability Network and Peaking Unit Impacts on Air Quality.

On high electricity demand days, when air quality is often poor, regional transmission organizations (RTOs), such as PJM Interconnection, ensure reliability of the grid by employing peak-use electric generating units (EGUs). These "peaking units" are exempt from some federal and state air quality rules. We identify RTO assignment and peaking unit classification for EGUs in the Eastern U.S. and estimate air quality for four emission scenarios with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model during the July 2006 heat wave. Further, we population-weight ambient values as a surrogate for potential population exposure. Emissions from electricity reliability networks negatively impact air quality in their own region and in neighboring geographic areas. Monitored and controlled PJM peaking units are generally located in economically depressed areas and can contribute up to 87% of hourly maximum PM2.5 mass locally. Potential population exposure to peaking unit PM2.5 mass is highest in the model domain's most populated cities. Average daily temperature and national gross domestic product steer peaking unit heat input. Air quality planning that capitalizes on a priori knowledge of local electricity demand and economics may provide a more holistic approach to protect human health within the context of growing energy needs in a changing world.

Decreasing Aerosol Water Is Consistent with OC Trends in the Southeast U.S.

Water is a ubiquitous and abundant component of atmospheric aerosols. It influences light scattering, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and secondary particulate matter (PM) formation. Despite the critical importance of aerosol liquid water, mass concentrations are not well-known. Using speciated ion and meteorological data from the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization network, we employ the thermodynamic model ISORROPIAv2.1 to estimate water mass concentrations and evaluate trends from 2001 to 2012 in urban and rural locations. The purpose of this study is to better understand the historical trends of aerosol liquid water in the southeast U.S. in the context of improved air quality and recently noted reductions in particulate organic carbon (OC). Aerosol water mass concentrations decrease by ∼79% from 2001 to 2012 in the region. Decreases are more prominent in rural than in urban areas. Fractional contribution of water to PM also decreases during the same time period, and this is consistent with recently noted improvements in visibility. These findings agree with the hypotheses that aerosol liquid water facilitates formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and that biogenically derived SOA is modulated in the presence of anthropogenic perturbations.

Temporalization of peak electric generation particulate matter emissions during high energy demand days.

Underprediction of peak ambient pollution by air quality models hinders development of effective strategies to protect health and welfare. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model routinely underpredicts peak ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. Temporal misallocation of electricity sector emissions contributes to this modeling deficiency. Hourly emissions are created for CMAQ by use of temporal profiles applied to annual emission totals unless a source is matched to a continuous emissions monitor (CEM) in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). More than 53% of CEMs in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and 45% nationally are unmatched in the 2008 NEI. For July 2006, a United States heat wave with high electricity demand, peak electric sector emissions, and elevated ambient PM2.5 mass, we match hourly emissions for 267 CEM/NEI pairs in PJM (approximately 49% and 12% of unmatched CEMs in PJM and nationwide) using state permits, electricity dispatch modeling and CEMs. Hourly emissions for individual facilities can differ up to 154% during the simulation when measurement data is used rather than default temporalization values. Maximum CMAQ PM2.5 mass, sulfate, and elemental carbon predictions increase up to 83%, 103%, and 310%, at the surface and 51%, 75%, and 38% aloft (800 mb), respectively.

Aerosol liquid water driven by anthropogenic nitrate: implications for lifetimes of water-soluble organic gases and potential for secondary organic aerosol formation.

Aerosol liquid water (ALW) influences aerosol radiative properties and the partitioning of gas-phase water-soluble organic compounds (WSOCg) to the condensed phase. A recent modeling study drew attention to the anthropogenic nature of ALW in the southeastern United States, where predicted ALW is driven by regional sulfate. Herein, we demonstrate that ALW in the Po Valley, Italy, is also anthropogenic but is driven by locally formed nitrate, illustrating regional differences in the aerosol components responsible for ALW. We present field evidence for the influence of controllable ALW on the lifetimes and atmospheric budgets of reactive organic gases and note the role of ALW in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Nitrate is expected to increase in importance due to increased emissions of nitrate precursors, as well as policies aimed at reducing sulfur emissions. We argue that the impacts of increased particulate nitrate in future climate and air quality scenarios may be under predicted because they do not account for the increased potential for SOA formation in nitrate-derived ALW, nor do they account for the impacts of this ALW on reactive gas budgets and gas-phase photochemistry.

Aerosols from fires: an examination of the effects on ozone photochemistry in the Western United States.

This study presents a first attempt to investigate the roles of fire aerosols in ozone (O(3)) photochemistry using an online coupled meteorology-chemistry model, the Weather Research and Foresting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Four 1-month WRF-Chem simulations for August 2007, with and without fire emissions, were carried out to assess the sensitivity of O(3) predictions to the emissions and subsequent radiative feedbacks associated with large-scale fires in the Western United States (U.S.). Results show that decreases in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) resulting from the radiative effects of fire aerosols and increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the fires tend to increase modeled O(3) concentrations near the source. Reductions in downward shortwave radiation reaching the surface and surface temperature due to fire aerosols cause decreases in biogenic isoprene emissions and J(NO(2)) photolysis rates, resulting in reductions in O(3) concentrations by as much as 15%. Thus, the results presented in this study imply that considering the radiative effects of fire aerosols may reduce O(3) overestimation by traditional photochemical models that do not consider fire-induced changes in meteorology; implementation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models are required to simulate the atmospheric chemistry impacted by large-scale fires.

Ambient Aerosol Is Physically Larger on Cloudy Days in Bondville, Illinois.

Particle chemical composition affects aerosol optical and physical properties in ways important for the fate, transport, and impact of atmospheric particulate matter. For example, hygroscopic constituents take up water to increase the physical size of a particle, which can alter the extinction properties and atmospheric lifetime. At the collocated AERosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network monitoring stations in rural Bondville, Illinois, we employ a novel cloudiness determination method to compare measured aerosol physicochemical properties on predominantly cloudy and clear sky days from 2010 to 2019. On cloudy days, aerosol optical depth (AOD) is significantly higher than on clear sky days in all seasons. Measured Ångström exponents are significantly smaller on cloudy days, indicating physically larger average particle size for the sampled populations in all seasons except winter. Mass concentrations of fine particulate matter that include estimates of aerosol liquid water (ALW) are higher on cloudy days in all seasons but winter. More ALW on cloudy days is consistent with larger particle sizes inferred from Ångström exponent measurements. Aerosol chemical composition that affects hygroscopicity plays a determining impact on cloudy versus clear sky differences in AOD, Ångström exponents, and ALW. This work highlights the need for simultaneous collocated, high-time-resolution measurements of both aerosol chemical and physical properties, in particular at cloudy times when quantitative understanding of tropospheric composition is most uncertain.

Photochemical modeling of the Ozark isoprene volcano: MEGAN, BEIS, and their impacts on air quality predictions.

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon, exerting influence on air quality and climate. Two widely used models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) are employed to generate emissions for application in the CMAQ air quality model. Predictions of isoprene, monoterpenes, ozone, formaldehyde, and secondary organic carbon (SOC) are compared to surface and aloft measurements made during an intensive study in the Ozarks, a large isoprene emitting region. MEGAN and BEIS predict spatially similar emissions but magnitudes differ. The total VOC reactivity of the emissions, as developed for the CB05 gas-phase chemical mechanism, is a factor of 2 different between the models. Isoprene estimates by CMAQ-MEGAN are higher and more variable than surface and aloft measurements, whereas CMAQ-BEIS predictions are lower. CMAQ ozone predictions are similar and compare well with measurements using either MEGAN or BEIS. However, CMAQ-MEGAN overpredicts formaldehyde. CMAQ-BEIS SOC predictions are lower than observational estimates for every sample. CMAQ-MEGAN underpredicts SOC ∼ 80% of the time, despite overprediction of precursor VOCs. CMAQ-MEGAN isoprene predictions improve when prognostically predicted solar radiation is replaced with the GEWEX satellite product. CMAQ-BEIS does not exhibit similar photosensitivity.

Model representation of secondary organic aerosol in CMAQv4.7.

Numerous scientific upgrades to the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Additions include several recently identified SOA precursors: benzene, isoprene, and sesquiterpenes; and pathways: in-cloud oxidation of glyoxal and methylglyoxal, particle-phase oligomerization, and acid enhancement of isoprene SOA. NO(x)-dependent aromatic SOA yields are also added along with new empirical measurements of the enthalpies of vaporization and organic mass-to-carbon ratios. For the first time, these SOA precursors, pathways and empirical parameters are included simultaneously in an air quality model for an annual simulation spanning the continental U.S. Comparisons of CMAQ-modeled secondary organic carbon (OC(sec)) with semiempirical estimates screened from 165 routine monitoring sites across the U.S. indicate the new SOA module substantially improves model performance. The most notable improvement occurs in the central and southeastern U.S. where the regionally averaged temporal correlations (r) between modeled and semiempirical OC(sec) increase from 0.5 to 0.8 and 0.3 to 0.8, respectively, when the new SOA module is employed. Wintertime OC(sec) results improve in all regions of the continental U.S. and the seasonal and regional patterns of biogenic SOA are better represented.

No evidence for brown carbon formation in ambient particles undergoing atmospherically relevant drying.

Recent laboratory studies have reported the formation of light-absorbing organic carbon compounds (brown carbon, BrC) in particles undergoing drying. Atmospheric particles undergo cycles of humidification and drying during vertical transport and through daily variations in temperature and humidity, which implies particle drying could potentially be an important source of BrC globally. In this work, we investigated BrC formation in ambient particles undergoing drying at a site in the eastern United States during summer. Aerosol BrC concentrations were linked to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, consistent with seasonal expectations for this region. Measurements of water-soluble organic aerosol concentrations and light absorption (365 nm) were alternated between an unperturbed channel and a channel that dried particles to 41% or 35% relative humidity (RH), depending on the system configuration. The RH maintained in the dry channels was below most ambient RH levels observed throughout the study. We did not observe BrC formation in particles that were dried to either RH level. The results were consistent across two summers, spanning ∼5 weeks of measurements that included a wide range of RH conditions and organic and inorganic aerosol loadings. This work suggests that mechanisms aside from humidification-drying cycles are more important contributors to ambient particle BrC loadings. The implications of this work on the atmospheric budget of BrC are discussed.

Controlling Biogenic Particle Mass with NOx and SOx.

Models that accurately predict atmospheric composition and correctly respond to tested policy scenarios aid air quality managers in the development of effective strategies to protect human health. Controllable emissions from human activity interact with natural emissions from plants and trees from the biosphere through complex chemistry to form ozone (O3) and organic fine particulate matter (PM2.5), criteria air pollutants that induce a variety of adverse health effects. While organic gases emitted from plants and trees are natural, some fraction of the subsequent O3 and PM2.5 is not. Accurate assessment of the extent to which human activity and natural emissions interact to form pollution can be achieved when models are constructed from first principle chemical and physical laws, and tested and evaluated with laboratory and field observations. In the summer of 2013, hundreds of scientists descended on the southeast U.S. to coordinate an atmospheric chemistry campaign with the ultimate goal of understanding complex biosphere-atmosphere interactions, the subsequent formation of O3 and PM2.5, and accurate incorporation of the chemistry into atmospheric models. A main finding from the campaign is that anthropogenic emissions facilitate formation of organic PM2.5 derived from biogenic VOCs. This fraction of PM2.5 is controllable pollution. Mechanistic insight from that campaign was recently incorporated into EPA's air quality model, improving the model representation of the atmospheric modeling and informing air quality management strategies for PM2.5. Emission reductions in SO2 and NOx in the southeast U.S. are found to reduce non-fossil, presumably biogenic, organic PM2.5 mass concentrations, suggesting existing Federal rules have been more successful than anticipated. Additional potential feedback mechanisms may become important as emissions reductions bring the atmosphere into new chemical regimes.

A Metamodeling Framework for Quantifying Health Damages of Power Grid Expansion Plans.

In this paper, we present an analytical framework to establish a closed-form relationship between electricity generation expansion planning decisions and the resulting negative health externalities. Typical electricity generation expansion planning models determine the optimal technology-capacity-investment strategy that minimizes total investment costs as well as fixed and variable operation and maintenance costs. However, the relationship between these long-term planning decisions and the associated health externalities is highly stochastic and nonlinear, and it is computationally expensive to evaluate. Thus, we developed a closed-form metamodel by executing computer-based experiments of a generation expansion planning model, and we analyzed the resulting model outputs in a United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) screening tool that approximates the associated human health externalities. Procedural guidance to verify the accuracy and to select key metamodel parameters to enhance its prediction capability is presented. Specifically, the metamodel presented in this paper can predict the resulting health damages of long-term power grid expansion decisions, thus, enabling researchers and policy makers to quickly assess the health implications of power grid expansion decisions with a high degree of certainty.