Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

BACKGROUND: Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

Does age modify the relationship between adherence to secondary prevention medications and mortality after acute myocardial infarction? A nested case-control study.

PURPOSE: Clinical trials have shown that evidence-based secondary prevention medications reduce mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Yet, these medications are generally underused in daily practice, and older people are often excluded from drug trials. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the relationship between adherence to evidence-based drugs and post-AMI mortality varies with increasing age. METHODS: The study population was defined as all residents in the Local Health Authority of Bologna (Italy) hospitalized for AMI between January 1, 2008 and June 30, 2011, and followed up until December 31, 2012. Medication adherence was calculated as the proportion of days covered (PDC) for filled prescriptions of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, ß-blockers, antiplatelet drugs, and statins; patients were classified as adherent (PDC ≥75 %) or nonadherent (PDC <75 %). We used incidence density sampling, and the moderating effect of age on the relationship between adherence and mortality was investigated through conditional multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The study population comprised 3963 patients. During the 5-year study period, 1085 deaths (27.4 %) were observed. For both younger and older patients, adherence to polytherapy (three or four medications) was associated with lower mortality (adj. rate ratio = 0.41; P < 0.001). A significant inverse relationship was found between adherence to each of the four medications and mortality, although the risk reduction associated with antiplatelet therapy declined after the age of 70-75. CONCLUSIONS: The beneficial effect of evidence-based polytherapy on mortality following AMI is observed also in older populations. Nevertheless, the risk-benefit ratio associated with antiplatelet therapy is less favorable with increasing age.

[Organisational determinants of adherence to secondary prevention medications after acute myocardial infarction]. / Determinanti organizzativi e assistenziali dell'aderenza alle terapie di prevenzione secondaria nei pazienti con infarto miocardico acuto.

OBJECTIVES: to identify organisational determinants of adherence to evidence-based drug treatments after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), under the hypothesis that low adherence is associated with higher mortality and risk of reinfarction. In particular, we investigated the effect of group vs. single handed practice and multi-professional practice characteristics on patients' adherence to polytherapy after AMI. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents in the Local Health Authority of Bologna (Italy) who were discharged from any Italian hospital between 2008 and 2011 with a diagnosis of AMI, and followed-up for a year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: adherence to at least three out of the four drug therapies recommended for secondary prevention of AMI (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, ß-blockers, antiplatelet agents, statins). Patients who had at least 80% of days of follow-up covered by drug doses were considered adherent. RESULTS: of the 4,828 post-AMI patients, 31.6% were adherent to polytherapy. General practice characteristics were unrelated to adherence, whereas discharge from cardiology hospital wards was significantly associated with higher patients' adherence (OR 1.97; 95%CI 1.56-2.48). CONCLUSION: general practice organisational models are not associated with higher adherence to evidence-based medications after AMI, whereas cardiologists seem to play a key role in improving patient adherence to polytherapy. Healthcare delivery models should be designed; in them, general practitioners are responsible for the provision of patient-centred care pathways and for care co-ordination with other primary care professionals and specialists, and take an advocacy role for the patient when needed.

Cesarean section and the manipulation of exact delivery time.

Physicians are often alleged responsible for the manipulation of delivery timing. We investigate this issue in a setting that negates the influence of financial incentives on physician's behavior. Working on a sample of women admitted at the onset of labor in a big public hospital in Italy we estimate a model for the exact time of delivery as driven by individual Indication to Cesarean Section (ICS) and covariates. We find that ICS does not affect the day of delivery but leads to a circadian rhythm in the likelihood of delivery. The pattern is consistent with the postponement of high ICS deliveries in the late night\early morning shift. Our evidence hardly supports the manipulation of timing of births as driven by medical staff's "demand for leisure". Physicians seem to manipulate the exact timing of delivery to reduce exposure to risk factors extant during off-peak periods.

Hospital readmissions of patients with heart failure: the impact of hospital and primary care organizational factors in Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND: Primary health care is essential for an appropriate management of heart failure (HF), a disease which is a major clinical and public health issue and a leading cause of hospitalization. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of different organizational factors on readmissions of patients with HF. METHODS: The study population included elderly resident in the Local Health Authority of Bologna (Northern Italy) and discharged with a diagnosis of HF from January to December 2010. Unplanned hospital readmissions were measured in four timeframes: 30 (short-term), 90 (medium-term), 180 (mid-long-term), and 365 days (long-term). Using multivariable multilevel Poisson regression analyses, we investigated the association between readmissions and organizational factors (discharge from a cardiology department, general practitioners' monodisciplinary organizational arrangement, and implementation of a specific HF care pathway). RESULTS: The 1873 study patients had a median age of 83 years (interquartile range 77-87) and 55.5% were females; 52.0% were readmitted to the hospital for any reason after a year, while 20.1% were readmitted for HF. The presence of a HF care pathway was the only factor significantly associated with a lower risk of readmission for HF in the short-, medium-, mid-long- and long-term period (short-term: IRR [incidence rate ratio]=0.57, 95%CI [confidence interval]=0.35-0.92; medium-term: IRR=0.70, 95%CI=0.51-0.96; mid-long-term: IRR=0.79, 95%CI=0.64-0.98; long-term: IRR=0.82, 95%CI=0.67-0.99), and with a lower risk of all-cause readmission in the short-term period (IRR=0.73, 95%CI=0.57-0.94). CONCLUSION: Our study shows that the HF care specific pathway implemented at the primary care level was associated with lower readmission rate for HF in each timeframe, and also with lower readmission rate for all causes in the short-term period. Our results suggest that the engagement of primary care professionals starting from the early post-discharge period may be relevant in the management of patients with HF.