The risk of acute and early HIV (AEH) infection among MSM with different behaviour trajectories: an open cohort study in Tianjin, China, 2011-2019.

BACKGROUND: Acute and early HIV (AEH) infection is characterized by a high viral load and infectivity. Approximately 50% of cases of HIV-1 transmission occur during AEH. Understanding sexual behaviour trajectories would be useful for predicting changes in the risk of HIV acquisition. However, few studies have investigated sexual behaviour trajectories and their association with AEH acquisition. This study identified behaviour trajectories among men who have sex with men (MSM), determined the risk of AEH infection, and compared risk factors between different behaviour trajectories. METHODS: The study was based on an ongoing prospective open cohort of voluntary HIV counselling and testing (VHCT) among MSM in Tianjin, China. From 2011 to 2019, 1974 MSM were recruited. Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to identify behaviour trajectories by constructing a sexual risk behaviour score. Logistic regression and generalized estimating equation (GEE) were used to compare the risk of AEH infection and risk factors for different behaviour trajectories. All data analyses were performed using SAS 9.4. RESULTS: The incidence of AEH infection was 1.76/100 person-years, with 64 AEH infections documented in 3633 person-years of follow-up. Three sexual behaviour trajectories were identified: CL (consistently low risk, 35.46%), CH (consistently high risk, 42.71%) and HTL (high to low risk, 21.83%). MSM in the HTL and CH groups had higher AEH infection rates than MSM in the CL group (6.73%, 3.08% and 1.28%, respectively), with ORs of 5.54 (2.60, 11.82) and 2.44 (1.14, 5.25), respectively. MSM aged 30-50 years old and MSM who underwent HIV testing in the last year were more likely to be in the CH group and HTL group. In addition, the HTL group was characterized by a lower likelihood of local registration and a higher likelihood of working as a MSW. CONCLUSION: MSM in the CH group and the HTL group had a higher risk of AEH infection. In the future, VHCT should be performed more often among younger MSM, and HIV counselling should be given the same priority as HIV testing. In addition, VHCT combined with PrEP may have a better preventive impact on MSM with a high risk of AEH infection.

The association between air pollutants, meteorological factors and tuberculosis cases in Beijing, China: A seven-year time series study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a severe public health problem globally. Previous studies have revealed insufficient and inconsistent associations between air pollutants, meteorological factors and TB cases. Yet few studies have examined the associations between air pollutants, meteorological factors and TB cases in Beijing. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of air pollutants and meteorological factors on TB in Beijing, and to provide novel insights into public health managers to formulate control strategies of TB. METHODS: Data on the daily case of TB in Beijing during 2014-2020 were obtained from Chinese tuberculosis information management system. Concurrent data on the daily PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO and O3, were obtained from the online publication platform of the Chinese National Environmental Monitoring Center. Daily average temperature, average wind speed, relative humidity, sunshine duration and total precipitation were collected from the China Meteorological Science Data Sharing Service System. A distributed lag non-linear model was fitted to identify the non-linear exposure-response relationship and the lag effects between air pollutions, meteorological factors and TB cases in Beijing. RESULTS: In the single-factor model, the excess risk (ER) of TB was significantly positively associated with every 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 in lag 1 week (ER: 1.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4%, 2.3%) and every 0.1 m/s increase in average wind speed in lag 5 weeks (ER: 0.3%; 95% CI: 0.1%, 0.5%), and was negatively associated with every 10 µg/m3 increase in O3 in lag 1 week (ER: -1.2%; 95% CI: -1.8%, -0.5%), every 5 °C increase in average temperature (ER: -1.7%; 95% CI: -2.9%, -0.4%) and every 10% increase in average relative humidity (ER: -0.4%; 95% CI: -0.8%, -0.1%) in lag 10 weeks, respectively. In the multi-factor model, the lag effects between TB cases and air pollutants, meteorological factors were similar. The subgroup analysis suggests that the effects of NO2, O3, average wind speed and relative humidity on TB were greater in male or labor age subgroup, while the effect of CO was greater in the elderly. In addition, no significant associations were found between PM2.5, SO2, sunshine duration and TB cases. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide a better understanding of air pollutants and meteorological factors driving tuberculosis occurrence in Beijing, which enhances the capacity of public health manager to target early warning and disease control policy-making.

Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction and Online Calculation Based on Machine Learning Algorithm.

Objective To build a prostate cancer (PCa) risk prediction model based on common clinical indicators to provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and treatment of PCa and to evaluate the value of artificial intelligence (AI) technology under healthcare data platforms. Methods After preprocessing of the data from Population Health Data Archive, smuothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) was used to select features. Random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BP), and convolutional neural network (CNN) were used to predict the risk of PCa, among which BP and CNN were used on the enhanced data by SMOTE. The performances of models were compared using area under the curve (AUC) of the receiving operating characteristic curve. After the optimal model was selected, we used the Shiny to develop an online calculator for PCa risk prediction based on predictive indicators. Results Inorganic phosphorus, triglycerides, and calcium were closely related to PCa in addition to the volume of fragmented tissue and free prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Among the four models, RF had the best performance in predicting PCa (accuracy: 96.80%; AUC: 0.975, 95% CI: 0.964-0.986). Followed by BP (accuracy: 85.36%; AUC: 0.892, 95% CI: 0.849-0.934) and SVM (accuracy: 82.67%; AUC: 0.824, 95% CI: 0.805-0.844). CNN performed worse (accuracy: 72.37%; AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.670-0.779). An online platform for PCa risk prediction was developed based on the RF model and the predictive indicators. Conclusions This study revealed the application value of traditional machine learning and deep learning models in disease risk prediction under healthcare data platform, proposed new ideas for PCa risk prediction in patients suspected for PCa and had undergone core needle biopsy. Besides, the online calculation may enhance the practicability of AI prediction technology and facilitate medical diagnosis.

Effects of daily mean temperature and other meteorological variables on bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.

BACKGROUND: Although previous studies have shown that meteorological factors such as temperature are related to the incidence of bacillary dysentery (BD), researches about the non-linear and interaction effect among meteorological variables remain limited. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of temperature and other meteorological variables on BD in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is a high-risk area for BD distribution. METHODS: Our study was based on the daily-scale data of BD cases and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2019, using generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to analyze the lag and cumulative effects. The interaction effects and stratified analysis were developed by the GAM. RESULTS: A total of 147,001 cases were reported from 2014 to 2019. The relationship between temperature and BD was approximately liner above 0 °C, but the turning point of total temperature effect was 10 °C. Results of DLNM indicated that the effect of high temperature was significant on lag 5d and lag 6d, and the lag effect showed that each 5 °C rise caused a 3% [Relative risk (RR) = 1.03, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.05] increase in BD cases. The cumulative BD cases delayed by 7 days increased by 31% for each 5 °C rise in temperature above 10 °C (RR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.30-1.33). The interaction effects and stratified analysis manifested that the incidence of BD was highest in hot and humid climates. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that temperature can significantly affect the incidence of BD, and its effect can be enhanced by humidity and precipitation, which means that the hot and humid environment positively increases the incidence of BD.

Sexual behaviour changes and HIV infection among men who have sex with men: evidence from an open cohort in China.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in key populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM) is a public health issue of worldwide concern. China has seen an increase in newly diagnosed HIV infections through male-male sexual contact in the past decade. In a long-term cohort, how the complex behaviour pattern of MSM changed and the association with the HIV risk are unclear at present. METHODS: This study was conducted from October 2011 to December 2019 in Tianjin. MSM were recruited by snowball sampling through online and offline ways. Demographic and sexual behavioural data were collected for analysis. Three indicators (condom use in last anal sex, frequency of condom use during anal sex and the number of sexual partners) were used to define the behaviour change. Participants with zero, one, and two or three risk indicators were categorised into behaviour types of 'protective', 'moderate', and 'fragile', respectively. Change in behaviour type between baseline and each visit was considered. Time-varying Cox models were performed to evaluate HIV infection risk. RESULTS: Of 2029 MSM included in the study, 127 were new HIV diagnoses. The overall incidence rate was 3.36 per 100 person-years. The percentage of 'protective' and 'moderate' behaviour types had a conspicuous growth trend as the follow-up. Furthermore, the HIV incidence rate in each visit among different behaviour transition types showed a general downward trend as the number of total follow-up times increased. Individuals who remained in 'fragile' (adjusted HR (aHR): 25.86, 95% CI: 6.92 to 96.57) or changed from 'protective' to 'moderate' (aHR: 4.79, 95% CI: 1.18 to 19.47), 'protective' to 'fragile' (aHR: 23.03, 95% CI: 6.02 to 88.13), and 'moderate' to 'fragile' (aHR: 25.48, 95% CI: 6.79 to 95.40) between baseline and the last follow-up had a higher HIV risk. Gained risk indicators were associated with the increase of HIV risk (gained one indicator, aHR: 2.67, 95% CI: 1.68 to 4.24; gained two or three indicators, aHR: 4.99, 95% CI: 3.00 to 8.31) while losing just one risk indicator could halve the risk (aHR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Among MSM in Tianjin, it is necessary to get timely behaviour change for those with high-incidence behaviour patterns while sustaining for those with low-incidence patterns. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (ChiCTR2000039500).

Cost-Effectiveness of Conbercept vs. Ranibizumab for Age-Related Macular Degeneration, Diabetic Macular Edema, and Pathological Myopia: Population-Based Cohort Study and Markov Model.

Background: With the advent of aging society of China, fundus diseases related to pathological neovascularization, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic macular edema (DME), and pathological myopia (PM), have become an increasingly serious medical and health problems. As effective drugs of the treatment, conbercept and ranibizumab have been commonly used and covered by the national basic medical insurance in China. However, the pharmacoeconomic evaluation of conbercept vs. ranibizumab for DME and PM remains lacking. This study would assess the cost-effectiveness of conbercept and ranibizumab for the treatment of AMD, DME, and PM from the perspective of Chinese payers. Methods: A Markov chain model was constructed based on the visual conditions of the patient indicated by the number of letters in best corrected visual acuity (BCVA). We conducted models based on real-world scenario to calculate the cost per the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. A 1-year cycle length and a 10-year simulation treatment were applied and the number of injections of conbercept and ranibizumab was assumed to the average number within 10 years. Transition probabilities, costs, utility data, and other parameters were obtained from literature searches. A 3.5% discounting rate was applied for both the costs and utilities. Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were more favorable for conbercept than ranibizumab in treatment of AMD, DME, and PM, with associated ICER of 66,669 renminbi (RMB), -258,813 RMB, and -373,185 RMB per QALY gained. Compared with ranibizumab, the incremental effectiveness of conbercept in treatment of AMD, DME, and PM was -0.665 QALYs, 0.215 QALYs, and 0.029 QALYs, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed the same findings, although the ICER is sensitive to the costs of this program. Conclusion: Under the current Chinese healthcare setting, conbercept is suitable and cost-effective in treatment of AMD, DME, and PM compared with ranibizumab.