A cohort study evaluating the risk of stroke associated with long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Evidences have shown that the stroke risk associated with long-term exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) varies among people in North America, Europe and Asia, but studies in Asia rarely evaluated the association by stroke type. We examined whether long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with developing all strokes, ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study consisted of 1,362,284 adults identified from beneficiaries of a universal health insurance program in 2011. We obtained data on air pollutants and meteorological measurements from air quality monitoring stations across Taiwan in 2010-2015. Annual mean levels of all environmental measurements in residing areas were calculated and assigned to cohort members. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of developing stroke associated with 1-year mean levels of PM2.5 at baseline in 2010, and yearly mean levels from 2010 to 2015 as the time-varying exposure, adjusting for age, sex, income and urbanization level. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 6.0 years, 12,942 persons developed strokes, 9919 (76.6%) were ischemic. The adjusted HRs (95% CIs) per interquartile range increase in baseline 1-year mean PM2.5 were 1.03 (1.00-1.06) for all stroke, 1.06 (1.02-1.09) for ischemic stroke, and 0.95 (0.89-1.10) for hemorrhagic stroke. The concentration-response curves estimated in the models with and without additional adjustments for other environmental measurements showed a positively linear association between baseline 1-year mean PM2.5 and ischemic stroke at concentrations greater than 30 µg/m3, under which no evidence of association was observed. There was an indication of an inverse association between PM2.5 and hemorrhagic stroke, but the association no longer existed after controlling for nitrogen dioxide or ozone. We found similar shape of the concentration-response association in the Cox regression models with time-varying PM2.5 exposures. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 might be associated with increased risk of developing ischemic stroke. The association with high PM2.5 concentrations remained significant after adjustment for other environmental factors.

Feasibility of using urinary TDGA as a biomarker for VCM exposures.

Thiodiglycolic acid (TDGA) is a major metabolite of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and it has been suggested as an exposure biomarker for VCM. The validity of this biomarker when the level of VCM is less than 5 ppm, however, is questionable. The objective of this article is to evaluate the feasibility of using urinary TDGA as a biomarker of VCM exposure in a community health risk assessment setting where the concentration of VCM in air is typically very low (likely below 1 ppm). To achieve this objective, we examine the fraction of urinary TDGA associated with different levels of VCM exposures of three studies from different countries, using estimations of the TDGA metabolite predicted by a PBPK model. It is demonstrated that differences in background TDGA have considerable effect on the adequacy of TDGA as a biomarker of VCM. We conclude that, in a community health assessment setting, TDGA should not be used as an exposure biomarker for VCM without having a proper control group, and a PBPK model can be used first to determine whether or not the amount of TDGA in urine is of concern.

Acute Bronchitis and Bronchiolitis Infection in Children with Asthma and Allergic Rhinitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study Based on 5,027,486 Children in Taiwan.

This study evaluated the risks of childhood acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (CABs) for children with asthma or allergic rhinitis (AR). Using insurance claims data of Taiwan, we identified, from children of ≤12 years old in 2000-2016, cohorts with and without asthma (N = 192,126, each) and cohorts with and without AR (N = 1,062,903, each) matched by sex and age. By the end of 2016, the asthma cohort had the highest bronchitis incidence, AR and non-asthma cohorts followed, and the lowest in the non-AR cohort (525.1, 322.4, 236.0 and 169.9 per 1000 person-years, respectively). The Cox method estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of bronchitis were 1.82 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.80-1.83) for the asthma cohort and 1.68 (95% CI, 1.68-1.69) for the AR cohort, relative to the respective comparisons. The bronchiolitis incidence rates for these cohorts were 42.7, 29.5, 28.5 and 20.1 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The aHRs of bronchiolitis were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.48-1.52) for the asthma cohort and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.45-1.47) for the AR cohort relative to their comparisons. The CABs incidence rates decreased substantially with increasing age, but were relatively similar for boys and girls. In conclusion, children with asthma are more likely to develop CABs than are children with AR.

Roles of Ambient Temperature and PM2.5 on Childhood Acute Bronchitis and Bronchiolitis from Viral Infection.

Studies have associated the human respiratory syncytial virus which causes seasonal childhood acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (CABs) with climate change and air pollution. We investigated this association using the insurance claims data of 3,965,560 children aged ≤ 12 years from Taiwan from 2006−2016. The monthly average incident CABs increased with increasing PM2.5 levels and exhibited an inverse association with temperature. The incidence was 1.6-fold greater in January than in July (13.7/100 versus 8.81/100), declined during winter breaks (February) and summer breaks (June−August). The highest incidence was 698 cases/day at <20 °C with PM2.5 > 37.0 µg/m3, with an adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97−1.04) compared to 568 cases/day at <20 °C with PM2.5 < 15.0 µg/m3 (reference). The incidence at ≥30 °C decreased to 536 cases/day (aRR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.85−1.06) with PM2.5 > 37.0 µg/m3 and decreased further to 392 cases/day (aRR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.58−0.65) when PM2.5 was <15.0 µg/m3. In conclusion, CABs infections in children were associated with lowered ambient temperatures and elevated PM2.5 concentrations, and the high PM2.5 levels coincided with low temperature levels. The role of temperature should be considered in the studies of association between PM2.5 and CABs.

Childhood Rotavirus Infection Associated with Temperature and Particulate Matter 2.5 µm: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

No study has ever investigated how ambient temperature and PM2.5 mediate rotavirus infection (RvI) in children. We used insurance claims data from Taiwan in 2006-2012 to evaluate the RvI characteristics in children aged ≤ 9. The RvI incidence rates were higher in colder months, reaching the highest in March (117.0/100 days), and then declining to the lowest in July (29.2/100 days). The age-sex-specific average incident cases were all higher in boys than in girls. Stratified analysis by temperature (<20, 20-24, and ≥25 °C) and PM2.5 (<17.5, 17.5-31.4, 31.5-41.9, and ≥42.0 µg/m3) showed that the highest incidence was 16.4/100 days at average temperatures of <20 °C and PM2.5 of 31.5-41.9 µg/m3, with Poisson regression analysis estimating an adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11-1.43), compared to the incidence at the reference condition (<20 °C and PM2.5 < 17.5 µg/m3). As the temperature increased, the incident RvI cases reduced to 4.84 cases/100 days (aRR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.35-0.45) when it was >25 °C with PM2.5 < 17.5 µg/m3, or to 9.84/100 days (aRR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.77-0.93) when it was >25 °C with PM2.5 > 42 µg/m3. The seasonal RvI is associated with frequent indoor personal contact among children in the cold months. The association with PM2.5 could be an alternative assessment due to temperature inversion.

Lingering effect: epidemiological information useful for risk assessment.

This article discusses cessation lag and effect lingering and their potential applications to dose-response analysis in risk assessment. Effect lingering can be used to analyze epidemiological data by uncovering the hidden biological implication related to disease endpoints, thereby advancing current characterization efforts and reducing risk assessment uncertainties. To illustrate the approach, as well as to better characterize the role of age of initiation and duration of smoking in carcinogenesis, we apply the concept of lingering effect to smoking and lung cancer data from the Cancer Prevention Study II.

Procedures for calculating cessation lag.

Environmental regulations aimed at reducing cancer risks usually have the effect of reducing exposure to a carcinogen at the time the regulation is implemented. The reduction of cancer risk may occur shortly after the reduced exposure or after a considerable period of time. The time of risk reduction associated with exposure reduction will vary by compound. Some recommended measures of the economic benefits associated with environmental regulations are sensitive to the timing of the risk reductions and cannot be effectively addressed by the conventional dose-response procedures. This paper introduces the concept and methodologies for calculating cessation lag effects, with the specific goal of answering the following questions: (1) How many cancer cases are avoided at age t after cessation (or reduction) of exposure concentration? and (2) How long does the effect of an exposure last after exposure has terminated (or been reduced)? The proposed procedures do not require more information than what is required by the conventional dose-response procedures for which cumulative or an averaged lifetime exposure is used.