Advancing screening tool for hospice needs and end-of-life decision-making process in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Predicting mortality in the emergency department (ED) is imperative to guide palliative care and end-of-life decisions. However, the clinical usefulness of utilizing the existing screening tools still leaves something to be desired. METHODS: We advanced the screening tool with the A-qCPR (Age, qSOFA (quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment), cancer, Performance Status Scale, and DNR (Do-Not-Resuscitate) risk score model for predicting one-year mortality in the emergency department of Taipei City Hospital of Taiwan with the potential of hospice need and evaluated its performance compared with the existing screening model. We adopted a large retrospective cohort in conjunction with in-time (the trained and the holdout validation cohort) for the development of the A-qCPR model and out-of-time validation sample for external validation and model robustness to variation with the calendar year. RESULTS: A total of 10,474 patients were enrolled in the training cohort and 33,182 patients for external validation. Significant risk scores included age (0.05 per year), qSOFA ≥ 2 (4), Cancer (5), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status score ≥ 2 (2), and DNR status (2). One-year mortality rates were 13.6% for low (score ≦ 3 points), 29.9% for medium (3 < Score ≦ 9 points), and 47.1% for high categories (Score > 9 points). The AUROC curve for the in-time validation sample was 0.76 (0.74-0.78). However, the corresponding figure was slightly shrunk to 0.69 (0.69-0.70) based on out-of-time validation. The accuracy with our newly developed A-qCPR model was better than those existing tools including 0.57 (0.56-0.57) by using SQ (surprise question), 0.54 (0.54-0.54) by using qSOFA, and 0.59 (0.59-0.59) by using ECOG performance status score. Applying the A-qCPR model to emergency departments since 2017 has led to a year-on-year increase in the proportion of patients or their families signing DNR documents, which had not been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The A-qCPR model is not only effective in predicting one-year mortality but also in identifying hospice needs. Advancing the screening tool that has been widely used for hospice in various scenarios is particularly helpful for facilitating the end-of-life decision-making process in the ED.

Eradicating Helicobacter pylori via 13C-urea breath screening to prevent gastric cancer in indigenous communities: a population-based study and development of a family index-case method.

OBJECTIVE: Screening and eradication of Helicobacter pylori help reduce disparities in the incidence of gastric cancer. We aimed to evaluate its acceptability and feasibility in the indigenous communities and develop a family index-case method to roll out this programme. DESIGN: We enrolled residents aged 20-60 years from Taiwanese indigenous communities to receive a course of test, treat, retest and re-treat initial treatment failures with the 13C-urea breath tests and four-drug antibiotic treatments. We also invited the family members of a participant (constituting an index case) to join the programme and evaluated whether the infection rate would be higher in the positive index cases. RESULTS: Between 24 September 2018 and 31 December 2021, 15 057 participants (8852 indigenous and 6205 non-indigenous) were enrolled, with a participation rate of 80.0% (15 057 of 18 821 invitees). The positivity rate was 44.1% (95% CI 43.3% to 44.9%). In the proof-of-concept study with 72 indigenous families (258 participants), family members of a positive index case had 1.98 times (95% CI 1.03 to 3.80) higher prevalence of H. pylori than those of a negative index case. The results were replicated in the mass screening setting (1.95 times, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.36) when 1115 indigenous and 555 non-indigenous families were included (4157 participants). Of the 6643 testing positive, 5493 (82.6%) received treatment. According to intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses, the eradication rates were 91.7% (89.1% to 94.3%) and 92.1% (89.2% to 95.0%), respectively, after one to two courses of treatment. The rate of adverse effects leading to treatment discontinuation was low at 1.2% (0.9% to 1.5%). CONCLUSION: A high participation rate, a high eradication rate of H. pylori and an efficient rollout method indicate that a primary prevention strategy is acceptable and feasible in indigenous communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03900910.

Can ship travel contain COVID-19 outbreak after re-opening: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

Large gatherings of people on cruise ships and warships are often at high risk of COVID-19 infections. To assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 on warships and cruise ships and to quantify the effectiveness of the containment measures, the transmission coefficient (ß), basic reproductive number (R0), and time to deploy containment measures were estimated by the Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. A meta-analysis was conducted to predict vaccine protection with or without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The analysis showed that implementing NPIs during voyages could reduce the transmission coefficients of SARS-CoV-2 by 50%. Two weeks into the voyage of a cruise that begins with 1 infected passenger out of a total of 3,711 passengers, we estimate there would be 45 (95% CI:25-71), 33 (95% CI:20-52), 18 (95% CI:11-26), 9 (95% CI:6-12), 4 (95% CI:3-5), and 2 (95% CI:2-2) final cases under 0%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90% vaccine protection, respectively, without NPIs. The timeliness of strict NPIs along with implementing strict quarantine and isolation measures is imperative to contain COVID-19 cases in cruise ships. The spread of COVID-19 on ships was predicted to be limited in scenarios corresponding to at least 70% protection from prior vaccination, across all passengers and crew.

Double-contrast barium enema is no longer justified as a backup examination for colonoscopy in the population screening program: Population study in an organized fecal immunochemical test-based screening program.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Currently, some countries still acknowledge double-contrast barium enema (DCBE) as a backup confirmatory examination when colonoscopy is not feasible or incomplete in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. This study aims to compare the performance of colonoscopy and DCBE in terms of the risk of incident CRC after negative results in the fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based Taiwan Colorectal Cancer Screening Program. METHODS: Subjects who had positive FITs and received confirmatory exams, either colonoscopy or DCBE, without the findings of neoplastic lesions from 2004 to 2013 in the screening program comprised the study cohort. Both the colonoscopy and DCBE subcohorts were followed until the end of 2018 and linked to the Taiwan Cancer Registry to identify incident CRC cases. Multivariate analysis was conducted to compare the risk of incident CRC in both subcohorts after controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 102 761 colonoscopies and 5885 DCBEs were performed after positive FITs without neoplastic findings during the study period. By the end of 2018, 2113 CRCs (2.7 per 1000 person-years) and 368 CRCs (7.6 per 1000 person-years) occurred in the colonoscopy and DCBE subcohorts, respectively. After adjusting for major confounders, DCBE had a significantly higher risk of incident CRC than colonoscopy, with an adjusted HR of 2.81 (95% CI = 2.51-3.14). CONCLUSIONS: In the FIT screening program, using DCBE as a backup examination was associated with a nearly threefold risk of incident CRC compared with colonoscopy, demonstrating that it is no longer justified as a backup examination for incomplete colonoscopy.

Fear of falling as a mediator in the association between social frailty and health-related quality of life in community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: Social frailty is associated with Fear of Falling (FoF) and health-related quality of life (HrQoL). However, how social frailty simultaneously influences FoF and HrQoL remains unclear. The study aims to understand the links between social frailty, FoF, and HrQoL in older adults and the mediating role of FoF in the relations between social frailty and HrQoL. METHODS: In this cross-sectional survey, 1,933 community-dwelling older adults from Changhua County, Taiwan, were interviewed using a self-administrated questionnaire. In total, 1,251 participants with complete data were included for analysis. Data were analyzed using the SPSS PROCESS macro. A simple mediation was employed using social frailty as the independent variable, FoF as the mediator variable, and HrQoL as the outcome variable. RESULTS: Social frailty was associated with HrQoL and indirectly with HrQoL through FoF, and FoF was directly associated with HrQoL. Of the 5-item social frailty index, "going out less frequently" was correlated with HrQoL and indirectly with HrQoL through FoF. Individuals who felt unhelpful toward family or friends had the worst physical HrQoL and did not talk to someone daily had the most negative influence on mental HrQoL. CONCLUSIONS: Social frailty can directly and indirectly, through FoF decrease HrQoL. It also emphasizes the importance of social connectivity in reducing the risk of falls. This study points to the need for social connectivity and fall prevention programs as essential components of strategies to enhance the health and well-being of community-dwelling older adults.

Does Diffusely Infiltrating Lobular Carcinoma of the Breast Arise from Epithelial-Mesenchymal Hybrid Cells?

Classic diffusely infiltrating lobular carcinoma has imaging features divergent from the breast cancers originating from the terminal ductal lobular units and from the major lactiferous ducts. Although the term "invasive lobular carcinoma" implies a site of origin within the breast lobular epithelium, we were unable to find evidence supporting this assumption. Exceptional excess of fibrous connective tissue and the unique cell architecture combined with the aberrant features at breast imaging suggest that this breast malignancy has not originated from cells lining the breast ducts and lobules. The only remaining relevant component of the fibroglandular tissue is the mesenchyme. The cells freshly isolated and cultured from diffusely infiltrating lobular carcinoma cases contained epithelial-mesenchymal hybrid cells with both epithelial and mesenchymal properties. The radiologic and histopathologic features of the tumours and expression of the mesenchymal stem cell positive markers CD73, CD90, and CD105 all suggest development in the direction of mesenchymal transition. These hybrid cells have tumour-initiating potential and have been shown to have poor prognosis and resistance to therapy targeted for malignancies of breast epithelial origin. Our work emphasizes the need for new approaches to the diagnosis and therapy of this highly fatal breast cancer subtype.

Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen Stratifies the Risk of Liver Cancer in HBeAg-Negative Patients With Indeterminate Phase.

INTRODUCTION: Many patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are classified as indeterminate patients because they fall outside the defined CHB phases. We aimed to explore hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with indeterminate phase and investigated whether the risk could be stratified by serum levels of hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg). METHODS: Two retrospective cohorts enrolling HBeAg-negative, treatment-naïve CHB patients without cirrhosis were constructed (N = 2,150 in Taiwanese discovery cohort and N = 1,312 in Japanese validation cohort with a mean follow-up period of 15.88 and 12.07 years, respectively). The primary end point was HCC development. RESULTS: According to the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease guidelines, 990 (46%) HBeAg-negative patients had indeterminate CHB phase at baseline in the Taiwanese cohort. Compared with the patients with inactive CHB and those with immune-active CHB, the indeterminate patients exhibited intermediate but diverse risk of HCC. When HCC risk was stratified by a HBcrAg level of 10,000 U/mL, 10-year HCC cumulative incidence was 0.51% and 5.33% for low HBcrAg and high HBcrAg groups, respectively, with a hazard ratio of 4.47 (95% confidence interval: 2.62-7.63). This cutoff was validated to stratify HCC risk not only in different subgroup analyses but also in an independent Japanese cohort. Finally, the overall HBeAg-negative CHB patients could be simply reclassified into high-risk and low-risk groups by combining ALT, hepatitis B virus DNA, and HBcrAg levels in both cohorts. DISCUSSION: Serum HBcrAg level of 10,000 U/mL stratifies HCC risk in HBeAg-negative patients with indeterminate phase, which is useful for optimizing their clinical management.

'I Knew I Should Stop, but I Couldn't Control Myself': a qualitative study to explore the factors influencing adolescents' consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and sugary snacks from a socio-ecological perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the factors influencing Taiwanese adolescents' consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and sugary snacks from a socio-ecological perspective. DESIGN: This study adopted a qualitative design by using face-to-face, in-depth interviews guided by a semistructured questionnaire. SETTING: Eight junior high schools in New Taipei City and Changhua County, Taiwan, September to November 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-nine participants aged 12-14 years participated in this study. RESULTS: Reflexive thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. This study identified four themes to address the multifaceted factors that influence adolescents' consumption of SSB and sugary snacks. At the intrapersonal level, physiological factors, psychological factors, individual economic factors and taste preferences were mentioned in connection with people's consumption of SSB and sugary snacks. Positive or negative influences of parents, siblings, peers and teachers on SSB and sugary snack intake were identified at the interpersonal level. The availability of SSB and sugary snacks at home, their availability in vending machines or in school stores in the school environment and participants' access to convenience stores and hand-shaken drink shops in the broader community influenced SSB and sugary snack consumption. Additionally, food culture and food advertising were identified as influencing societal factors. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this qualitative study determined not only that the consumption of SSB and sugary snacks is influenced by intrapersonal factors but also that interpersonal, environmental and societal factors affect adolescents' increased sugar intake. The findings are helpful to broaden the options for designing and developing interventions to decrease SSB and sugary snack consumption by adolescents.

Sex differences in the association between sugar-sweetened beverages consumption and metabolic risks among the working-age population in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are linked to increased metabolic risk. However, the sex differences in the relationship between SSB intake and adverse health effects remain unclear. Therefore, the present study examined the association between SSB consumption and metabolic risks among working-age males and females from Taiwanese communities. DESIGN: A community-based study utilized data from a comprehensive health screening project conducted by the Public Health Bureau in Changhua County, Taiwan. Metabolic risks included waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and fasting glucose level using serum tests. SETTING: Participants were recruited in Changhua County, Taiwan. PARTICIPANTS: Between 2005 and 2014, 92,724 citizens participated in the health screening; our data analysis included 75,278 respondents between 30 and 64. RESULTS: The results showed that the frequency of SSB consumption was associated with abnormal waist circumference and elevated total cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL, and glucose in both men and women. Increased SSB consumption frequency was associated with elevated glucose and hypertension in women. Even a slight increase in SSB intake frequency was related to raising the metabolic risks. Similar patterns were evident when models included body mass index (BMI); however, the associations were attenuated. In the BMI-stratified subgroup analysis, the relationship between SSB consumption and metabolic risks was more pronounced in participants without obesity. CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that SSB consumption carries metabolic risk among working-age Taiwanese, particularly women and those without obesity. Health promotion programs should raise awareness of the health hazards associated with SSBs.

Community-based multiple screening for metabolic syndrome by innovative theory: A longitudinal study.

The purpose of this research is to elucidate whether metabolic syndrome affects the rate of adoption of a new multiple cancer screening programme, based on the Diffusion of Innovation theory. The time to attend the screening programme, conducted in Keelung, Taiwan, within 10 years was assessed by innovativeness (innovators, early adaptors, early majority, late majority and laggard) using data from 79,303 residents, with the information on metabolic syndrome accrued from routine adult health check-ups. The median time of adopting the programme and the relative rates of early adoption by metabolic syndrome and its severity score were estimated. The results show that the estimated times to adopt the programme ranged from 3 months for innovators to 10 years for the laggard. The rate of early adoption was 34% higher for participants without metabolic syndrome than for those with the disease, and the gradient relationship of disease severity was noted. The adjusted median time to adopt innovativeness was 0.82 years earlier for participants who were disease-free than those with the disease. Meanwhile, the adjusted median time was wider by up to 2.25 years for those with severe disease. The study suggests that innovation should prioritise the potential risk of the metabolic syndrome population.

Determinants associated with medical-related long-term care service use among community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan.

INTRODUCTION: Medical-related long-term care (LTC) service use among community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan is resource-intensive, and planning is essential to promote aging-in-place. METHODS: Administrative data from 4/1/2017 to 11/26/2019 among more than 14,000 residents were analyzed with generalized estimating equations (GEEs) to identify determinants of medical-related LTC service use. RESULTS: Older adults using medical-related LTC services tended to be younger (79.9 vs. 80.7; p<.0001), male (42.7% vs. 38.5%; p<.0001), multi-morbid (3.1 vs. 2.5; p<.0001), and higher mean activities of daily living (ADL) disability (8.2 vs. 4.2; p<.0001), instrumental ADL (IADL) disability (11.0 vs. 9.1; p<.0001), and hospitalizations (1.1 vs. 0.4; p<.0001). Significant determinants of medical-related LTC services include age, education, stroke, coronary heart disease, diabetes, vision impairment, ADL disability, and prior hospitalization. DISCUSSION: The success of LTC 2.0 will depend on ADL support and care coordination to manage chronic conditions such as diabetes, vision impairment, coronary heart disease, and stroke.

Mass eradication of Helicobacter pylori to reduce gastric cancer incidence and mortality: a long-term cohort study on Matsu Islands.

OBJECTIVE: Although mass eradication of Helicobacter pylori has been proposed as a means to eliminate gastric cancer, its long-term effects remain unclear. DESIGN: Mass eradication of H. pylori infection was launched in 2004 and continued until 2018 for a high-risk Taiwanese population aged 30 years or older dwelling on Matsu Islands with prevalent H. pylori infection. Test positives for the 13C-urea breath test underwent eradication therapy. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mass eradication in reducing two main outcomes, incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer, until the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively. RESULTS: After six rounds of mass screening and eradication, the coverage rate reached 85.5% (6512/7616). The referral rate for treatment was 93.5% (4286/4584). The prevalence rates of H. pylori fell from 64.2% to 15.0% with reinfection rates of less than 1% per person-year. The presence and severity of atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia also decreased with time. Compared with the historical control period from 1995 to 2003, the effectiveness in reducing gastric cancer incidence and mortality during the chemoprevention period was 53% (95% CI 30% to 69%, p<0.001) and 25% (95% CI -14% to 51%, p=0.18), respectively. No significant changes were noted in the incidence rates of other digestive tract cancers or the antibiotic resistance rate of H. pylori. CONCLUSION: Population-based eradication of H. pylori has significantly reduced gastric cancer incidence with no increase in the likelihood of adverse consequences. A significant reduction in mortality is likely to be achieved with a longer follow-up period. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00155389.

Elimination of Hepatitis C Virus in a Dialysis Population: A Collaborative Care Model in Taiwan.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Hemodialysis facilities are high-risk environments for the spread of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eliminating HCV from all dialysis facilities in a community may be achieved more effectively under a collaborative care model. STUDY DESIGN: Quality improvement study of multidisciplinary collaborative care teams including nephrologists, gastroenterologists, and public health practitioners. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: All dialysis patients in Changhua County, Taiwan were treated using an interdisciplinary collaborative care model implemented within a broader Changhua-Integrated Program to Stop HCV Infection (CHIPS-C). QUALITY IMPROVEMENT ACTIVITIES: Provision of an HCV care cascade to fill 3 gaps, including screening and testing, diagnosis, and universal direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment implemented by collaborating teams of dialysis practitioners and gastroenterologists working under auspices of Changhua Public Health Bureau. OUTCOME: Outcome measures included quality indicators pertaining to 6 steps in HCV care ranging from HCV screening to treatment completion to cure. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: A descriptive analysis. RESULTS: A total of 3,657 patients from 31 dialysis facilities were enrolled. All patients completed HCV screening. The DAA treatment initiation rate and completion rate were 88.9% and 94.0%, respectively. The collaborative care model achieved a cure rate of 166 (96.0%) of 173 patients. No virologic failure occurred. The cumulative treatment ratios for patients with chronic HCV infection increased from 5.3% before interferon-based therapy (2017) to 25.6% after restricted provision of DAA (2017-2018), and then to 89.1% after universal access to DAA (2019). LIMITATIONS: Unclear impact of this collaborative care program on incident dialysis patients entering dialysis facilities each year and on patients with earlier stages of chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: A collaborative care model in Taiwan increased the rates of diagnosis and treatment for HCV in dialysis facilities to levels near those established by the World Health Organization.

Association of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) with Elevated Fecal Hemoglobin Concentration and Colorectal Carcinogenesis: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

The roles of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC) have been scarcely highlighted as there is short of empirical evidence regarding the influences of PM2.5 on multistep carcinogenic processes of CRC. A retrospective cohort design with multistate outcomes was envisaged by linking monthly average PM2.5 concentrations at 22 city/county level with large-scale cohorts of cancer-screened population to study the influences of PM2.5 on short-term inflammatory process and multistep carcinogenic processes of CRC. Our study included a nationwide CRC screening cohort of 4,628,995 aged 50-69 years who attended first screen between 2004 and 2009 and continued periodical screens until 2016. We aimed to illustrate the carcinogenesis of PM2.5 related to CRC by applying both hierarchical logistical and multistate Markov regression models to estimate the effects of air pollution on fecal immunochemical test (FIT) positive (a proxy of inflammatory marker) and pre-clinical and clinical states of CRC in the nationwide cohort. We found a significant association of high PM2.5 exposure and FIT-positive by an increased risk of 11% [95% confidence interval (CI), 10-12]. PM2.5 enhanced the risk of being preclinical state by 14% (95% CI, 10-18) and that of subsequent progression from pre-clinical to clinical state by 21% (95% CI, 14-28). Furthermore, the elevated risks for CRC carcinogenesis were significantly higher for people living in high PM2.5 pollution areas in terms of yearly averages and the number days above 35 µg/m3 than those living in low PM2.5 pollution areas. We concluded that both short-term and long-term PM2.5 exposure were associated with multistep progression of CRC, which were useful to design precision primary and secondary prevention strategies of CRC for people who are exposed to high PM2.5 pollution.

Mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on colorectal cancer screening: Organized service screening perspectives from the Asia-Pacific region.

Colorectal cancer(CRC) is one of the most prevalent malignancies in the Asia-Pacific region, and many countries in this region have launched population CRC service screening. In this study, CRC screening key indicators, including the FIT(fecal immunochemical test) screening rate (or participation rate) and the rate of undergoing colonoscopy after positive FIT in 2019 and 2020, were surveyed in individual countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The impact of the pandemic on the effectiveness of CRC screening was simulated given different screening rates and colonoscopy rates and assuming the pandemic would persist or remain poorly controlled for a long period of time, using the empirical data from the Taiwanese program and the CRC natural history model. During the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the programs in this region were affected, but to different extents, which was largely influenced by the severity of the local pandemic. Most of the programs continued screening services in 2020, although a temporary pause occurred in some countries. The modeling study revealed that prolonged pauses of screening led to 6% lower effectiveness in reducing CRC mortality. Screening organizers should coordinate with health authorities to elaborate on addressing screening backlogs, setting priorities for screening, and applying modern technologies to overcome potential obstacles. Many novel approaches that were developed and applied during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the risk-stratified approach that takes into account personal CRC risk and the local epidemic status, as well as new digital technologies, are expected to play important roles in CRC screening in the future.

Risk stratification for gastric cancer after Helicobacter pylori eradication: A population-based study on Matsu Islands.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The reliable method to stratify the gastric cancer risk after Helicobacter pylori eradication remains an elusive goal. METHODS: Mass eradication of H. pylori began in 2004 in a high-risk population. After eradication, a screening program involving first-stage serological tests (pepsinogen-I, pepsinogen-II, H. pylori immunoglobin G, and gastrin-17) and second-stage endoscopic examination was launched in 2015-2018. Index lesions included gastric cancer or extensive premalignant lesions. We evaluated the performance of the serological tests to "rule in" and "rule out" the risk based on positive and negative likelihood ratios, respectively. The methylation levels of microRNA-124a-3 in the stomach were measured to indicate genetic damage. RESULTS: Among 6512 invited subjects, 3895 (59.6%) participated. Both gastrin-17 and pepsinogen tests were normal in 3560 (91.4%) subjects; 206 (5.3%) gastrin-17 and 129 (3.3%) pepsinogen tests were abnormal. Years after eradication, the severity of gastritis had fallen greatly, and extensive premalignant lesions or gastric cancer frequently occurred in newly non-atrophic-appearing mucosa. Pepsinogen testing could moderately predict atrophic gastritis (positive likelihood ratio: 4.11 [95% confidence interval: 2.92-5.77]; negative likelihood ratio: 0.14 [0.10-0.19]). Gastrin-17 was not useful (0.66 and 1.20, respectively). However, pepsinogen testing poorly predicted the index lesions (2.04 [1.21-3.42] and 0.57 [0.34-0.95]). DNA methylation levels in the post-eradication mucosa were more discriminative for predicting index lesions (3.89 [2.32-6.54] and 0.25 [0.15-0.42]). CONCLUSIONS: After eradication, pepsinogen false-negative results become more frequent because histology is improved but genetic damage may persist. Direct testing for genetic damage offers better discrimination.

A-qCPR risk score screening model for predicting 1-year mortality associated with hospice and palliative care in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the need for palliative care and predicting its mortality play important roles in the emergency department. AIM: We developed a screening model for predicting 1-year mortality. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. Our risk scores based on these significant risk factors were then developed. Its predictive validity performance was evaluated using area under receiving operating characteristic analysis and leave-one-out cross-validation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 15 years or older were enrolled from June 2015 to May 2016 in the emergency department. RESULTS: We identified five independent risk factors, each of which was assigned a number of points proportional to its estimated regression coefficient: age (0.05 points per year), qSOFA ⩾ 2 (1), Cancer (4), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status score ⩾ 2 (2), and Do-Not-Resuscitate status (3). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of our screening tool given the cutoff larger than 3 points were 0.99 (0.98-0.99), 0.31 (0.29-0.32), 0.26 (0.24-0.27), and 0.99 (0.98-1.00), respectively. Those with screening scores larger than 9 points corresponding to 64.0% (60.0-67.9%) of 1-year mortality were prioritized for consultation and communication. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curves for the point system was 0.84 (0.83-0.85) for the cross-validation model. CONCLUSIONS: A-qCPR risk scores provide a good screening tool for assessing patient prognosis. Routine screening for end-of-life using this tool plays an important role in early and efficient physician-patient communications regarding hospice and palliative needs in the emergency department.

A proactive remote pharmaceutical care for rural elderly population: The Houston-Apollo polypharmacy project.

AIMS: To evaluate polypharmacy-related problems in the elderly people who live in rural through a proactive pharmaceutical care project under a novel remote medical service infrastructure (the Houston-Apollo polypharmacy project). METHODS: It is a prospectively cross-sectional study. The elderly aged 65 years old lived in communities executed the congregate meal service and joined the Houston-Apollo project were included. During March and July on 2020, the pharmaceutical care team of Houston-Apollo polypharmacy project interviewed old people and collected their medications by remote video. Polypharmacy situation and drug-related problems, including potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs), anticholinergic burden (ACB) and risk of sarcopaenia, were evaluated by clinical pharmacists. In addition, we analysed the categories of the prescription types between polypharmacy and non-polypharmacy users, polypharmacy users with and without PIMs or ACB. A patient-specific integrated pharmacist's note for medication education and a dear doctor letter (as needed) were generated and delivered within 2-weeks postinterviewed. Age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between polypharmacy and these potential medication problems. RESULTS: There were 87 older people (mean age = 75.9) and 536 long-term medications were collected. Among them, 52% were defined as polypharmacy users. Polypharmacy was significantly associated with higher risk of PIMs and ACB. The adjusted odd ratio was 5.31 (95% CI: 2.02-13.9) and 10.1 (95% CI: 3.4-29.7), respectively. Among polypharmacy users, there were nearly double the prescriptions for the nervous system and musculoskeletal system among patients with PIMs compared with those without PIMs. Besides, polypharmacy users with ACB showed higher rate of prescriptions for the nervous system and the alimentary tract and metabolism system compared with those without ACB. CONCLUSION: Polypharmacy was significantly associated with negative impact of medication safety among the elderly people in rural area. A persistent remote pharmaceutical care intervention was crucial for improving this problem.

Estimating global burden of COVID-19 with disability-adjusted life years and value of statistical life metrics.

BACKGROUND: Global burden of COVID-19 has not been well studied, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and value of statistical life (VSL) metrics were therefore proposed to quantify its impacts on health and economic loss globally. METHODS: The life expectancy, cases, and death numbers of COVID-19 until 30th April 2021 were retrieved from open data to derive the epidemiological profiles and DALYs (including years of life lost (YLL) and years loss due to disability (YLD)) by four periods. The VSL estimates were estimated by using hedonic wage method (HWM) and contingent valuation method (CVM). The estimate of willingness to pay using CVM was based on the meta-regression mixed model. Machine learning method was used for classification. RESULTS: Globally, DALYs (in thousands) due to COVID-19 was tallied as 31,930 from Period I to IV. YLL dominated over YLD. The estimates of VSL were US$591 billion and US$5135 billion based on HWM and CVM, respectively. The estimate of VSL increased from US$579 billion in Period I to US$2160 billion in Period IV using CVM. The higher the human development index (HDI), the higher the value of DALYs and VSL. However, there exits the disparity even at the same level of HDI. Machine learning analysis categorized eight patterns of global burden of COVID-19 with a large variation from US$0.001 billion to US$691.4 billion. CONCLUSION: Global burden of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial health and value of life loss particularly in developed economies. Classifications of such health and economic loss is informative to early preparation of adequate resource to reduce impacts.

Economic evaluation for mass vaccination against COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine is supposed to be the most effective means to prevent COVID-19 as it may not only save lives but also reduce productivity loss due to resuming pre-pandemic activities. Providing the results of economic evaluation for mass vaccination is of paramount importance for all stakeholders worldwide. METHODS: We developed a Markov decision tree for the economic evaluation of mass vaccination against COVID-19. The effectiveness of reducing outcomes after the administration of three COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca)) were modelled with empirical parameters obtained from literatures. The direct cost of vaccine and COVID-19 related medical cost, the indirect cost of productivity loss due to vaccine jabs and hospitalization, and the productivity loss were accumulated given different vaccination scenarios. We reported the incremental cost-utility ratio and benefit/cost (B/C) ratio of three vaccines compared to no vaccination with a probabilistic approach. RESULTS: Moderna and Pfizer vaccines won the greatest effectiveness among the three vaccines under consideration. After taking both direct and indirect costs into account, all of the three vaccines dominated no vaccination strategy. The results of B/C ratio show that one dollar invested in vaccine would have USD $13, USD $23, and USD $28 in return for Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, respectively when health and education loss are considered. The corresponding figures taking value of the statistical life into account were USD $176, USD $300, and USD $443. CONCLUSION: Mass vaccination against COVID-19 with three current available vaccines is cost-saving for gaining more lives and less cost incurred.