Multicentre derivation and validation of a colitis-associated colorectal cancer risk prediction web tool.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) diagnosed with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) have increased risk of developing advanced neoplasia (AN: high-grade dysplasia or colorectal cancer). We aimed to develop and validate a predictor of AN risk in patients with UC with LGD and create a visual web tool to effectively communicate the risk. DESIGN: In our retrospective multicentre validated cohort study, adult patients with UC with an index diagnosis of LGD, identified from four UK centres between 2001 and 2019, were followed until progression to AN. In the discovery cohort (n=246), a multivariate risk prediction model was derived from clinicopathological features using Cox regression. Validation used data from three external centres (n=198). The validated model was embedded in a web tool to calculate patient-specific risk. RESULTS: Four clinicopathological variables were significantly associated with AN progression in the discovery cohort: endoscopically visible LGD >1 cm (HR 2.7; 95% CI 1.2 to 5.9), unresectable or incomplete endoscopic resection (HR 3.4; 95% CI 1.6 to 7.4), moderate/severe histological inflammation within 5 years of LGD diagnosis (HR 3.1; 95% CI 1.5 to 6.7) and multifocality (HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.3 to 6.2). In the validation cohort, this four-variable model accurately predicted future AN cases with overall calibration Observed/Expected=1.01 (95% CI 0.64 to 1.52), and achieved 100% specificity for the lowest risk group over 13 years of available follow-up. CONCLUSION: Multicohort validation confirms that patients with large, unresected, multifocal LGD and recent moderate/severe inflammation are at highest risk of developing AN. Personalised risk prediction provided via the Ulcerative Colitis-Cancer Risk Estimator ( www.UC-CaRE.uk ) can support treatment decision-making.

Cumulative burden of inflammation predicts colorectal neoplasia risk in ulcerative colitis: a large single-centre study.

OBJECTIVE: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a dynamic disease with its severity continuously changing over time. We hypothesised that the risk of colorectal neoplasia (CRN) in UC closely follows an actuarial accumulative inflammatory burden, which is inadequately represented by current risk stratification strategies. DESIGN: This was a retrospective single-centre study. Patients with extensive UC who were under colonoscopic surveillance between 2003 and 2012 were studied. Each surveillance episode was scored for a severity of microscopic inflammation (0=no activity; 1=mild; 2=moderate; 3=severe activity). The cumulative inflammatory burden (CIB) was defined as sum of: average score between each pair of surveillance episodes multiplied by the surveillance interval in years. Potential predictors were correlated with CRN outcome using time-dependent Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 987 patients were followed for a median of 13 years (IQR, 9-18), 97 (9.8%) of whom developed CRN. Multivariate analysis showed that the CIB was significantly associated with CRN development (HR, 2.1 per 10-unit increase in CIB (equivalent of 10, 5 or 3.3 years of continuous mild, moderate or severe active microscopic inflammation); 95% CI 1.4 to 3.0; P<0.001). Reflecting this, while inflammation severity based on the most recent colonoscopy alone was not significant (HR, 0.9 per-1-unit increase in severity; 95% CI 0.7 to 1.2; P=0.5), a mean severity score calculated from all colonoscopies performed in preceding 5 years was significantly associated with CRN risk (HR, 2.2 per-1-unit increase; 95% CI 1.6 to 3.1; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The risk of CRN in UC is significantly associated with accumulative inflammatory burden. An accurate CRN risk stratification should involve assessment of multiple surveillance episodes to take this into account.

Evolutionary history of human colitis-associated colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: IBD confers an increased lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), and colitis-associated CRC (CA-CRC) is molecularly distinct from sporadic CRC (S-CRC). Here we have dissected the evolutionary history of CA-CRC using multiregion sequencing. DESIGN: Exome sequencing was performed on fresh-frozen multiple regions of carcinoma, adjacent non-cancerous mucosa and blood from 12 patients with CA-CRC (n=55 exomes), and key variants were validated with orthogonal methods. Genome-wide copy number profiling was performed using single nucleotide polymorphism arrays and low-pass whole genome sequencing on archival non-dysplastic mucosa (n=9), low-grade dysplasia (LGD; n=30), high-grade dysplasia (HGD; n=13), mixed LGD/HGD (n=7) and CA-CRC (n=19). Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed, and evolutionary analysis used to reveal the temporal sequence of events leading to CA-CRC. RESULTS: 10/12 tumours were microsatellite stable with a median mutation burden of 3.0 single nucleotide alterations (SNA) per Mb, ~20% higher than S-CRC (2.5 SNAs/Mb), and consistent with elevated ageing-associated mutational processes. Non-dysplastic mucosa had considerable mutation burden (median 47 SNAs), including mutations shared with the neighbouring CA-CRC, indicating a precancer mutational field. CA-CRCs were often near triploid (40%) or near tetraploid (20%) and phylogenetic analysis revealed that copy number alterations (CNAs) began to accrue in non-dysplastic bowel, but the LGD/HGD transition often involved a punctuated 'catastrophic' CNA increase. CONCLUSIONS: Evolutionary genomic analysis revealed precancer clones bearing extensive SNAs and CNAs, with progression to cancer involving a dramatic accrual of CNAs at HGD. Detection of the cancerised field is an encouraging prospect for surveillance, but punctuated evolution may limit the window for early detection.

Low-grade dysplasia in ulcerative colitis: risk factors for developing high-grade dysplasia or colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or colorectal cancer (CRC) in ulcerative colitis (UC) patients diagnosed with low-grade dysplasia (LGD). METHODS: Patients with histologically confirmed extensive UC, who were diagnosed with LGD between 1993 and 2012 at St Mark's Hospital, were identified and followed up to 1 July 2013. Demographic, endoscopic, and histological data were collected and correlated with the development of HGD or CRC. RESULTS: A total of 172 patients were followed for a median of 48 months from the date of initial LGD diagnosis (interquartile range (IQR), 15-87 months). Overall, 33 patients developed HGD or CRC (19.1% of study population; 20 CRCs) during study period. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that macroscopically non-polypoid (hazard ratio (HR), 8.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.0-24.8; P<0.001) or invisible (HR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.3-13.4; P=0.02) dysplasia, dysplastic lesions ≥1 cm in size (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.5-13.4; P=0.01), and a previous history of "indefinite for dysplasia" (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.2-6.5; P=0.01) were significant contributory factors for HGD or CRC development. Multifocal dysplasia (HR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-7.8; P<0.001), metachronous dysplasia (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.6-7.5; P=0.001), or a colonic stricture (HR, 7.4; 95% CI, 2.5-22.1; P<0.001) showed only univariate correlation to development of HGD or CRC. CONCLUSIONS: Lesions that are non-polypoid or endoscopically invisible, large (≥1 cm), or preceded by indefinite dysplasia are independent risk factors for developing HGD or CRC in UC patients diagnosed with LGD.

Forty-Year Analysis of Colonoscopic Surveillance Program for Neoplasia in Ulcerative Colitis: An Updated Overview.

OBJECTIVES: This study provides an overview of the largest and longest-running colonoscopic surveillance program for colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients with long-standing ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: Data were obtained from medical records, endoscopy, and histology reports. Primary end points were defined as death, colectomy, withdrawal from surveillance, or censor date (1 January 2013). RESULTS: A total of 1,375 UC patients were followed up for 15,234 patient-years (median, 11 years per patient). CRC was detected in 72 patients (incidence rate (IR), 4.7 per 1,000 patient-years). Time-trend analysis revealed that although there was significant decrease in incidence of colectomy performed for dysplasia (linear regression, R=-0.43; P=0.007), IR of advanced CRC and interval CRC have steadily decreased over past four decades (Pearson's correlation, -0.99; P=0.01 for both trends). The IR of early CRC has increased 2.5-fold in the current decade compared with past decade (χ(2), P=0.045); however, its 10-year survival rate was high (79.6%). The IR of dysplasia has similarly increased (χ(2), P=0.01), potentially attributable to the recent use of chromoendoscopy that was twice more effective at detecting dysplasia compared with white-light endoscopy (χ(2), P<0.001). CRCs were frequently accompanied by synchronous CRC or spatially distinct dysplasia (37.5%). Finally, the risk of CRC was not significantly different between "indefinite" or low-grade dysplasia (log-rank, P=0.78). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopic surveillance may have a significant role in reducing the risk of advanced and interval CRC while allowing more patients to retain their colon for longer. Given the ongoing risk of early CRC, patients with any grade of dysplasia who are managed endoscopically should be monitored closely with advanced techniques.

Systematic Review: The Impact and Importance of Body Composition in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alterations in body composition are common in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] and have been associated with differences in patient outcomes. We sought to consolidate knowledge on the impact and importance of body composition in IBD. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and conference proceedings by combining two key research themes: inflammatory bowel disease and body composition. RESULTS: Fifty-five studies were included in this review. Thirty-one focused on the impact of IBD on body composition with a total of 2279 patients with a mean age 38.4 years. Of these, 1071 [47%] were male. In total, 1470 [64.5%] patients had Crohn's disease and 809 [35.5%] had ulcerative colitis. Notably, fat mass and fat-free mass were reduced, and higher rates of sarcopaenia were observed in those with active IBD compared with those in clinical remission and healthy controls. Twenty-four additional studies focused on the impact of derangements in body composition on IBD outcomes. Alterations in body composition in IBD are associated with poorer prognoses including higher rates of surgical intervention, post-operative complications and reduced muscle strength. In addition, higher rates of early treatment failure and primary non-response are seen in patients with myopaenia. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with IBD have alterations in body composition parameters in active disease and clinical remission. The impacts of body composition on disease outcome and therapy are broad and require further investigation. The augmentation of body composition parameters in the clinical setting has the potential to improve IBD outcomes in the future.

Subclinical miliary Mycobacterium bovis following BCG immunotherapy for transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder.

The authors present an unusual case of a 51-year-old man who developed relatively mild non-specific symptoms following intravesical BCG instillation for superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder, with radiological investigations demonstrating typical features of miliary tuberculosis (TB). Transbronchial biopsy showed small foci of poorly formed granuloma suggestive of Mycobacterium infection. The patient's respiratory symptoms only became apparent 7 days after discharge having had 4 weeks of unremarkable inpatient stay where he remained clinically well. Prompt anti-TB treatment resulted in a remarkable improvement in his symptoms and radiological appearance, supporting the diagnosis of disseminated Mycobacterium bovis infection. This case highlights the importance of recognising miliary M bovis as a potential complication in patients receiving BCG immunotherapy, and that the disease course can be subclinical with delayed onset of symptoms.