Changes in the prevalence of hepatitis B and C viral infections in Sindh province, Pakistan: Findings from two sero-surveys in 2007 and 2019.

Pakistan harbours a large burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We utilised repeat sero-surveys to assess progress achieved towards hepatitis elimination in Pakistan. Multilevel logistic regression evaluated the change in HBV infection (HBV surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive) prevalence and HCV exposure (HCV antibody (HCV-Ab)-positive) prevalence between two sero-surveys from 2007 and 2019 for Sindh province and associated risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were estimated and population-attributable fractions (PAF) for modifiable risk factors for HCV exposure. The 2007 and 2019 surveys included 8855 and 6672 individuals. HBsAg prevalence decreased from 2.6% (95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 2.2-2.9) in 2007 to 1.1% (95% CI: 0.8-1.3) in 2019, while HCV-Ab prevalence increased from 5.1% (95% CI: 4.6%-5.5%) to 6.2% (95% CI: 5.6%-6.8%). The age and gender-adjusted HBsAg prevalence decreased by 80% (aOR = 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1-0.4) among children and 60% (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.6) among adults over 2007-2019, while HCV-Ab prevalence decreased by 60% (aOR = 0.4, 95%CI:0.2-0.7) in children and increased by 40% (aOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7) in adults. HCV-Ab prevalence was lower in adults with secondary (aOR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.8) and higher (aOR = 0.5, 95%CI:0.3-0.8) education compared to illiterates and higher among adults reporting blood transfusion (aOR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), family history of hepatitis (aOR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.9-3.3), past year medical injection (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6-2.7), being tattooed (aOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.9) and shaved by traditional barber (aOR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.5). Modifiable risk factors accounted for 45% of HCV exposure, with medical injection(s) accounting for 38% (95%CI,25.7-48.4%). Overall HCV has increased over 2007-2019 in Sindh province, while HBV prevalence has decreased. Medical injections should be an important focus of prevention activities.

HepFREEPak: protocol for a multi-centre, prospective observational study examining efficacy and impact of current therapies for the treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan and reporting resistance to antiviral drugs: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has one of the highest burdens of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection globally. To achieve the World Health Organization's goals for HCV elimination, there is a need for substantial scale-up in testing, treatment, and a reduction in new infections. Data on the population impact of scaling up treatment is not available in Pakistan, nor is there reliable data on the incidence of infection/reinfection. This project will fill this gap by providing important empirical data on the incidence of infection (primary and reinfection) in Pakistan. Then, by using this data in epidemic models, the study will determine whether response rates achieved with affordable therapies (sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir) will be sufficient to eliminate HCV in Pakistan. METHODS: This prospective multi-centre cohort study will screen 25,000 individuals for HCV antibody (Ab) and RNA (if Ab-positive) at various centers in Pakistan- Karachi (Sindh) and Punjab, providing estimates of the disease prevalence. HCV positive patients will be treated with sofosbuvir and daclatasvir for 12-weeks, (extended to 24-weeks in those with cirrhosis) and the proportion responding to this first-line treatment estimated. Patients who test HCV Ab negative will be recalled 12 months later to test for new HCV infections, providing estimates of the incidence rate. Patients diagnosed with HCV (~ 4,000) will be treated and tested for Sustained Virological Response (SVR). Questionnaires to assess risk factors, productivity, health care usage and quality of life will be completed at both the initial screening and at 12-month follow-up, allowing mathematical modelling and economic analysis to assess the current treatment strategies. Viral resistance will be analysed and patients who have successfully completed treatment will be retested 12 months later to estimate the rate of re-infection. CONCLUSION: The HepFREEPak study will provide evidence on the efficacy of available and widely used treatment options in Pakistan. It will also provide data on the incidence rate of primary infections and re-infections. Data on incidence risk factors will allow us to model and incorporate heterogeneity of risk and how that affects screening and treatment strategies. These data will identify any gaps in current test-and-treat programs to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04943588) on June 29, 2021.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma associated with hepatitis C genotype 3 infection: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne virus which globally affects around 79 million people and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Chronic infection leads to cirrhosis in a large proportion of patients and often causes hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with cirrhosis. Of the 6 HCV genotypes (G1-G6), genotype-3 accounts for 17.9% of infections. HCV genotype-3 responds least well to directly-acting antivirals and patients with genotype-3 infection are at increased risk of HCC even if they do not have cirrhosis. AIM: To systematically review and critically appraise all risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV-G3 in all settings. Consequently, we studied possible risk factors for HCC due to HCV-G3 in the literature from 1946 to 2023. METHODS: This systematic review aimed to synthesise existing and published studies of risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3 and evaluate their strengths and limitations. We searched Web of Science, Medline, EMBASE, and CENTRAL for publications reporting risk factors for HCC due to HCV genotype-3 in all settings, 1946-2023. RESULTS: Four thousand one hundred and forty-four records were identified from the four databases with 260 records removed as duplicates. Three thousand eight hundred and eighty-four records were screened with 3514 excluded. Three hundred and seventy-one full-texts were assessed for eligibility with seven studies included for analysis. Of the seven studies, three studies were retrospective case-control trials, two retrospective cohort studies, one a prospective cohort study and one a cross-sectional study design. All were based in hospital settings with four in Pakistan, two in South Korea and one in the United States. The total number of participants were 9621 of which 167 developed HCC (1.7%). All seven studies found cirrhosis to be a risk factor for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3 followed by higher age (five-studies), with two studies each showing male sex, high alpha feto-protein, directly-acting antivirals treatment and achievement of sustained virologic response as risk factors for developing HCC. CONCLUSION: Although, studies have shown that HCV genotype-3 infection is an independent risk factor for end-stage liver disease, HCC, and liver-related death, there is a lack of evidence for specific risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3. Only cirrhosis and age have demonstrated an association; however, the number of studies is very small, and more research is required to investigate risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3.