Prediction of Early Recurrent Thromboembolic Event and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation by a Risk Stratification Schema: The ALESSA Score Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSES: This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P=0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632-0.763; P=0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493-0.678; P=0.10) for major bleedings. RESULTS: The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529-0.763; P=0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275-0.540; P=0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events. CONCLUSIONS: In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants for Pulmonary Embolism.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the third most common cardiovascular disease. For most patients, the standard of treatment has long consisted on low-molecular-weight heparin followed by vitamin K antagonists, but a number of clinical trials and, subsequently, post-marketing studies have shown that direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) with or without lead-in heparin therapy are effective alternatives with fewer adverse effects. This evidence has led to important changes in the guidelines on the treatment of VTE, including pulmonary embolism (PE), with the DOACs being now recommended as the first therapeutic choice. Additional research has contributed to identifying low-risk PE patients who can benefit from outpatient management or from early discharge from the emergency department with DOAC treatment. There is evidence to support the use of DOACs in intermediate-risk PE patients as well as in high-risk patients receiving thrombolytic treatment. The use of DOACs has also been proven to be safe and effective in special populations of PE patients, such as patients with renal impairment, liver impairment, and cancer.

Acute pulmonary embolism and cancer: findings from the COPE study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute venous thromboembolism associated with cancer have an increased risk of recurrences and bleeding in the long term. RESEARCH QUESTION: To describe the clinical features and short-term course of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and active cancer, previous cancer or no cancer. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients with acute PE included in COPE-prospective, multicentre study of adult patients with acute, symptomatic, objectively diagnosed PE-were classified as having active cancer, previous cancer, or no cancer. RESULTS: Overall, 832 patients had active cancer, 464 with previous cancer and 3660 patients had no cancer at the time of acute PE. The most prevalent primary sites of active cancer were urogenital (23.0%), gastrointestinal (21.0%), and lung (19.8%), with a high prevalence of metastatic disease (57.6%) and ongoing anticancer treatment (16.2%). At discharge, a direct oral anticoagulant was used in 43.1%, 78.8%, and 82.0% of patients with active cancer, previous cancer, and no cancer, respectively. Rates of death in-hospital and at 30 days were higher in patients with active cancer compared to patients with previous cancer and no cancer (7.9% vs. 4.3% vs. 2.2% and 13.8% vs. 5.2% vs. 2.6%, respectively). Rates of major bleeding were 4.8%, 2.6%, and 2.4%, respectively. Among patients with active cancer, lung or metastatic cancer were independent predictors of death; brain, hematological or gastrointestinal cancer had the highest risk of major bleeding. INTERPRETATION: Among patients with acute PE, those with active cancer have high risks for death or major bleeding within 30 days. These risks vary based on primary site of cancer. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT03631810.

Provoked vs minimally provoked vs unprovoked VTE: does it matter?

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a multifactorial disease, and its risk depends on exposure to risk factors and predisposing conditions. Based on their strength of association with a VTE episode, risk factors are classified as major or minor and determined using a temporal pattern to be transient or persistent. All patients with VTE should receive anticoagulant treatment for at least 3 months in the absence of an absolute contraindication. Beyond this period, selected patients may be candidates for an extended phase of anticoagulation aimed at secondary VTE prevention. The risk of recurrent VTE if anticoagulation is discontinued is probably the main driver of decision-making regarding extended treatment. The risk of recurrence after VTE associated with major risk factors is low if the risk factor is no longer present. In this case, treatment can be discontinued. If the major risk factor is persistent, anticoagulation should be continued. After VTE occurring in the absence of risk factors, anticoagulation should probably be continued indefinitely if the risk for bleeding is low and preferably with minimal effective doses of anticoagulants. VTE occurring after exposure to minor risk factors is probably the most challenging situation, especially if the clinical manifestation was acute pulmonary embolism. Understanding the actual role of minor risk factors in the occurrence of VTE helps in estimating the risk of recurrence and avoiding the dangers associated with unnecessary anticoagulation. The availability of safer strategies for anticoagulation could allow personalized strategies for secondary prevention of VTE.

Prognostic role of different findings at echocardiography in acute pulmonary embolism: a critical review and meta-analysis.

Background: Right ventricle dysfunction (RVD) at echocardiography predicts mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), but heterogeneous definitions of RVD have been used. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the role of different definitions of RVD and of individual parameters of RVD as predictors of death. Methods: A systematic search for studies including patients with confirmed PE reporting on right ventricle (RV) assessment at echocardiography and death in the acute phase was performed. The primary study outcome was death in-hospital or at 30 days. Results: RVD at echocardiography, regardless of its definition, was associated with increased risk of death (risk ratio 1.49, 95% CI 1.24-1.79, I2=64%) and PE-related death (risk ratio 3.77, 95% CI 1.61-8.80, I2=0%) in all-comers with PE, and with death in haemodynamically stable patients (risk ratio 1.52, 95% CI 1.15-2.00, I2=73%). The association with death was confirmed for RVD defined as the presence of at least one criterion or at least two criteria for RV overload. In all-comers with PE, increased RV/left ventricle (LV) ratio (risk ratio 1.61, 95% CI 1.90-2.39) and abnormal tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) (risk ratio 2.29 CI 1.45-3.59) but not increased RV diameter were associated with death; in haemodynamically stable patients, neither RV/LV ratio (risk ratio 1.11, 95% CI 0.91-1.35) nor TAPSE (risk ratio 2.29, 95% CI 0.97-5.44) were significantly associated with death. Conclusion: Echocardiography showing RVD is a useful tool for risk stratification in all-comers with acute PE and in haemodynamically stable patients. The prognostic value of individual parameters of RVD in haemodynamically stable patients remains controversial.

Contemporary Management and Clinical Course of Acute Pulmonary Embolism: The COPE Study.

BACKGROUND: New diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment strategies became recently available for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) leading to changes in clinical practice and potentially influencing short-term patients' outcomes. RESEARCH QUESTION: The COntemporary management of PE (COPE) study is aimed at assessing the contemporary clinical management and outcomes in patients with acute symptomatic PE. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Prospective, noninterventional, multicenter study. The co-primary study outcomes, in-hospital and 30-day death, were reported overall and by risk categories according to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and American Heart Association guidelines. RESULTS: Among 5,213 study patients, PE was confirmed by computed tomography in 96.3%. In-hospital, 289 patients underwent reperfusion (5.5%), 92.1% received parenteral anticoagulants; at discharge, 75.6% received direct oral anticoagulants and 6.7% vitamin K antagonists. In-hospital and 30-day mortalities were 3.4 and 4.8%, respectively. In-hospital death occurred in 20.3% high-risk patients (n = 177), in 4.0% intermediate-risk patients (n = 3,281), and in 0.5% low-risk patients (n = 1,702) according to ESC guidelines. Further stratification in intermediate-high and intermediate-low risk patients did not reach statistical significance, but intermediate-risk patients with sPESI > 0 alone had lower mortality compared to those with one or both among right ventricular dilation at echocardiography or increased troponin. Death or clinical deterioration occurred in 1.5, 5.0, and 9.4% of patients at low, intermediate-low, and intermediate-high risk for death according to ESC guidelines. CONCLUSION: For the majority of patients with PE, contemporary initial management includes risk stratification and treatment with direct oral anticoagulants. In-hospital mortality remains high in intermediate and high-risk patients calling for and informing research focused on its reduction. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03631810.

Risk stratification to optimize the management of acute pulmonary embolism.

INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening disease. Risk stratification in patients with acute PE can guide clinical decisions. Clinical assessment, including hemodynamics, respiratory parameters, patient history, and right ventricle evaluation, has a pivotal role in this scope. AREAS COVERED: This review aims to describe: i) the role of individual tools for prognostic stratification, from simple clinical parameters to the models suggested by international guidelines; ii) the implications of risk stratification in terms of patient disposition and treatment. The bleeding risk assessment in acute PE was also reviewed. The literature search was performed in PubMed and Embase to address these issues. EXPERT OPINION: Prognostic assessment is essential to proceed with life-saving treatments in hemodynamically unstable patients and consider home treatment or short hospital stay in patients at low risk for death. In hemodynamically stable patients, risk stratification allows the implementation of personalized treatment pathways to reduce the risk of death, early PE recurrence, and bleeding. With the aim of optimizing healthcare resources, risk stratification may suggest appropriate patient disposition.

Clinical prediction models in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical spectrum of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) ranges from asymptomatic infection to severe respiratory failure that may result in death. We aimed at validating and potentially improve existing clinical models to predict prognosis in hospitalized patients with acute COVID-19. METHODS: Consecutive patients with acute confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized at 5 Italian non-intensive care unit centers during the 2020 outbreak were included in the study. Twelve validated prognostic scores for pneumonia and/or sepsis and specific COVID-19 scores were calculated for each study patient and their accuracy was compared in predicting in-hospital death at 30 days and the composite of death and orotracheal intubation. RESULTS: During hospital stay, 302 of 1044 included patients presented critical illness (28.9%), and 226 died (21.6%). Nine out of 34 items included in different prognostic scores were independent predictors of all-cause-death. The discrimination was acceptable for the majority of scores (APACHE II, COVID-GRAM, REMS, CURB-65, NEWS II, ROX-index, 4C, SOFA) to predict in-hospital death at 30 days and poor for the rest. A high negative predictive value was observed for REMS (100.0%) and 4C (98.7%) scores; the positive predictive value was poor overall, ROX-index having the best value (75.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the growing interest in prognostic models, their performance in patients with COVID-19 is modest. The 4C, REMS and ROX-index may have a role to select high and low risk patients at admission. However, simple predictors as age and PaO2/FiO2 ratio can also be useful as standalone predictors to inform decision making.

Challenging anticoagulation cases: A case of pulmonary embolism shortly after spontaneous brain bleeding.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication after intracranial hemorrhage (ICH); the incidence has been reported to vary between 18% to 50% for deep vein thrombosis and between 0.5% to 5% for pulmonary embolism (PE). According to current clinical practice guidelines, patients with acute VTE should receive anticoagulant treatment for at least 3 months in the absence of contraindications. Anticoagulant treatment reduces mortality, prevents early recurrences and improves long-term outcome in patients with acute VTE. However, recent ICH is an absolute contraindication for anticoagulant treatment due to the potential increased risk of hematoma expansion or recurrent ICH. Hematoma expansion occurs in approximately a third of patients within 24 h following the diagnosis of a spontaneous ICH. The risk for recurrent ICH depends on patients' features as well as on the feature of index ICH. Limited evidence is available on the risks of therapeutic anticoagulation started shortly after ICH. Expert consensus around the introduction of therapeutic anticoagulation suggests delaying therapeutic anticoagulation for at least 2 weeks after spontaneous ICH, until the risk re-bleeding becomes acceptable. Vena cava filters should be inserted to reduce the risk for (non) fatal PE until therapeutic anticoagulation can be started; antithrombotic prophylaxis should be started as soon as possible to avoid recurrent VTE after vena cava filter insertion. For patients presenting PE with hemodynamic compromise, percutaneous embolectomy should be considered. Most patients will be able to receive anticoagulant treatment within 4 weeks following spontaneous ICH; direct oral anticoagulants are probably the treatment of choice for those ICH patients tolerating anticoagulant treatment.

Long term use of anticoagulant therapy for patients with pulmonary embolism.

INTRODUCTION: Anticoagulant treatment reduces recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) by about 90% after index pulmonary embolism. Whether anticoagulant treatment also reduces mortality in these patients remains to be defined. The main counterbalance for life long anticoagulation is the risk for anticoagulants-associated bleeding. AREAS COVERED: Literature search was performed in PubMed and Embase. We aimed to review the risk for recurrent VTE over time after discontinuation of anticoagulants and the risks for bleeding and for fatal bleeding over time during anticoagulant treatment. The efficacy and safety of different anticoagulant agents and regimes were reviewed. EXPERT OPINION: An increase in the proportion of candidates to extended anticoagulation has been claimed in the era of direct oral anticoagulants based on the safety profile and the practicality of these agents. The risk for non-major clinically relevant bleeding with direct oral anticoagulants is not negligible and is probably higher than the risk for recurrence over time in several patient categories. While awaiting further evidence on the clinical benefit of extended use of direct oral anticoagulants beyond the initial 12 months, the choice of this approach should be carefully based on the balance between the estimated risk of recurrent VTE and that of bleeding.

Prognostic value of respiratory index in haemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism: The Respiratory Index model study.

BACKGROUND: Current strategies for prognostic stratification in haemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism require improvement. The aims of this study in haemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism were (a) to evaluate the prognostic value of a novel respiratory index (oxygen saturation in air to respiratory rate ratio) and (b) to derive a risk model which includes the respiratory index and evaluate its value in predicting 30-day mortality. METHODS: Prospective cohorts of haemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism were merged to a collaborative database that served to create two subsequent derivation and validation cohorts based on a temporal criterion. The study outcome was 30-day all-cause death. RESULTS: Thirty-day all-cause death occurred in 7.5% and in 6.9% of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts (each composed of 319 patients). In the derivation cohort, the respiratory index (odds ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.48-0.90) and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (odds ratio 9.16, 95% confidence interval 1.22-68.89) were predictors of 30-day mortality. The cut-off value of the respiratory index ⩽3.8 was identified to best predict 30-day all-cause death (15.4% vs 5.0%, odds ratio 2.94, 95% confidence interval 1.22-7.11). The respiratory index ⩽3.8 was combined with the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index to create the Respiratory Index model that showed a good discriminatory power in the derivation (c-statistic 0.703, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.80) and in the validation cohort (c-statistic 0.838, 95% confidence interval 0.768-0.907). CONCLUSION: In hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism, the respiratory index was an independent predictor of 30-day all-cause death. The Respiratory Index model which includes the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and the respiratory index, provides a good risk stratification of haemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Early discharge of patients with pulmonary embolism in daily clinical practice: A prospective observational study comparing clinical gestalt and clinical rules.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the efficiency and safety of clinicians' gestalt in the identification of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) candidates for early discharge and to compare the efficiency and safety of clinical gestalt with that of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), the simplified PESI (sPESI) and the Hestia criteria (HC). METHODS: Consecutive adult patients presenting to the emergency department of four Italian hospitals with confirmed diagnosis of PE were included. Data for PESI, sPESI and HC assessment were prospectively collected. Patients were managed according to the clinical gestalt of the attending physician, independent of the results of PESI, sPESI and HC. Efficiency was defined as the prevalence of candidates to early discharge. The primary safety measure was the incidence of a composite of venous thromboembolic recurrence, major haemorrhage or all-cause mortality within 30 days. RESULTS: Out of 547 included patients, 178 (32.5%) were judged to be at low risk and discharged within 48 h from presentation. HC identified a higher proportion (41.7%) whereas both PESI (24.1%) and sPESI (18.3%) identified a lower proportion of candidates for early discharge when compared to clinical gestalt (P < 0.01 for all). The incidence of the safety outcome was 2.8% in early-discharged patients according to clinical gestalt and 2.3%, 3.0% and 2.6% in candidates to early discharge according to PESI, sPESI and HC, without differences between strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, clinical gestalt identified one-third of PE patients for early discharge. Among different strategies HC showed the highest efficiency sharing similar safety with the other strategies.

Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation: Time to Initiation of Oral Anticoagulant Therapy and Outcomes.

Background In patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation, early anticoagulation prevents ischemic recurrence but with the risk of hemorrhagic transformation ( HT ). The aims of this study were to evaluate in consecutive patients with acute stroke and atrial fibrillation (1) the incidence of early HT, (2) the time to initiation of anticoagulation in patients with HT , (3) the association of HT with ischemic recurrences, and (4) the association of HT with clinical outcome at 90 days. Methods and Results HT was diagnosed by a second brain computed tomographic scan performed 24 to 72 hours after stroke onset. The incidence of ischemic recurrences as well as mortality or disability (modified Rankin Scale scores >2) were evaluated at 90 days. Ischemic recurrences were the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism. Among the 2183 patients included in the study, 241 (11.0%) had HT . Patients with and without HT initiated anticoagulant therapy after a mean 23.3 and 11.6 days, respectively, from index stroke. At 90 days, 4.6% (95% confidence interval, 2.3-8.0) of the patients with HT had ischemic recurrences compared with 4.9% (95% confidence interval, 4.0-6.0) of those without HT ; 53.1% of patients with  HT were deceased or disabled compared with 35.8% of those without HT . On multivariable analysis, HT was associated with mortality or disability (odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.35). Conclusions In patients with HT , anticoagulation was initiated about 12 days later than patients without HT . This delay was not associated with increased detection of ischemic recurrence. HT was associated with increased mortality or disability.

Early Recurrence and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Non-Vitamin-K Oral Anticoagulants (RAF-NOACs) Study.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing to administer non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation is unclear. This prospective observational multicenter study evaluated the rates of early recurrence and major bleeding (within 90 days) and their timing in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation who received NOACs for secondary prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Recurrence was defined as the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and symptomatic systemic embolism, and major bleeding was defined as symptomatic cerebral and major extracranial bleeding. For the analysis, 1127 patients were eligible: 381 (33.8%) were treated with dabigatran, 366 (32.5%) with rivaroxaban, and 380 (33.7%) with apixaban. Patients who received dabigatran were younger and had lower admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and less commonly had a CHA2DS2-VASc score >4 and less reduced renal function. Thirty-two patients (2.8%) had early recurrence, and 27 (2.4%) had major bleeding. The rates of early recurrence and major bleeding were, respectively, 1.8% and 0.5% in patients receiving dabigatran, 1.6% and 2.5% in those receiving rivaroxaban, and 4.0% and 2.9% in those receiving apixaban. Patients who initiated NOACs within 2 days after acute stroke had a composite rate of recurrence and major bleeding of 12.4%; composite rates were 2.1% for those who initiated NOACs between 3 and 14 days and 9.1% for those who initiated >14 days after acute stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation, treatment with NOACs was associated with a combined 5% rate of ischemic embolic recurrence and severe bleeding within 90 days.