The evolution and interpretation of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among South African blood donors from the Beta to Omicron variant-driven waves.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses underestimate the total number of infections. Blood donors can provide representative seroprevalence estimates, which can be leveraged into reasonable estimates of total infection counts and infection fatality rate (IFR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Blood donors who donated after each of three epidemic waves (Beta, Delta and first Omicron waves) were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies using the Roche Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 total immunoglobulin assay. Roche Elecsys anti-spike antibody testing was done for the post-Omicron sampling. Prevalence of antibodies was estimated by age, sex, race and province and compared to official case reporting. Province and age group-specific IFRs were estimated using external excess mortality estimates. RESULTS: The nationally weighted anti-nucleocapsid seroprevalence estimates after the Beta, Delta and Omicron waves were 47% (46.2%-48.6%), 71% (68.8%-73.5%) and 87% (85.5%-88.4%), respectively. There was no variation by age and sex, but there were statistically and epidemiologically significant differences by province (except at the latest time point) and race. There was a 13-fold higher seroprevalence than confirmed case counts at the first time point. Age-dependent IFR roughly doubled for every 10 years of age increase over 6 decades from 0.014% in children to 6.793% in octogenarians. CONCLUSION: Discrepancies were found between seroprevalence and confirmed case counts. High seroprevalence rates found among Black African donors can be ascribed to historical inequities. Our IFR estimates were useful in refining previous large disagreements about the severity of the epidemic in South Africa. Blood donor-based serosurveys provided a valuable and efficient way to provide near real-time monitoring of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Comparison of two nucleic acid amplification technology systems for detection of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) are endemic in South Africa while hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is rare. Two nucleic acid amplification technology platforms, the Procleix Ultrio Elite assay on the Panther instrument (Elite) and the cobas MPX assay on the cobas 6800 or 8800 system (MPX), are used worldwide. In 2015 these were evaluated in South African context. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The sensitivity of HIV, HBV, and HCV was evaluated using reference panels and 2-fold dilutions of 51 positive plasma samples tested in 12 to 24 replicates. The 95% and 50% lower limits of detection (LOD) were estimated by probit analysis and window period (WP) risk days by the Weusten model. Specificity was established by testing 3646 blood donations individually and instrument performance by evaluating all runs. RESULTS: Specificity was 99.94% for MPX and 99.97% for Elite. The following 95% LODs (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were estimated for MPX and Elite, respectively: HBV, 17.8 (10.9-33.9) and 47.9 (29.1-92.4) cp/mL; HCV, 21.9 (15.3-34.6) and 13.8 (8.9-24.0) cp/mL; and HIV, 8.3 (5.5-14.7) and 10.4 (6.9-18.2) cp/mL. On SA HBV and HIV dilution panels, relative sensitivity (range) of MPX was 3.20 (1.26-6.50) and 1.42 (0.26-2.72) fold higher than Elite. Downtime on cobas 6800 was 26 hours vs 6.6 hours on Panther (P < .001). We estimated infectious WPs for HBV, HCV, and HIV-1 at 13.8, 1.8, and 2.6 days for Elite and 10.3, 2.1, and 2.4 days for MPX. CONCLUSION: Although MPX was significantly more sensitive for HBV, Elite was implemented due to instrument reliability during evaluation.

Direct comparison of three residual risk models for hepatitis B virus window period infections using updated input parameters.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Comparison of two models for estimating residual transfusion transmission risk by NAT screened window period (WP) donations in South African repeat donors gave identical results for HIV but not for HBV. In order to understand discrepant HBV modelling outcomes, the values of input parameters in three HBV WP risk models were reviewed and subsequently applied to the same South African screening data generated by HBsAg PRISM and two NAT assays (Ultrio and Ultrio Plus). Two of the models were also compared using individual donation (ID)-NAT screening data from different geographical regions. METHODS: Values of input parameters were derived from two published data sources and used in three risk models [(1) the incidence rate-WP risk day equivalent model, (2) the NAT yield WP ratio model and (3) the anti-HBc-negative HBsAg yield period ratio model] and subsequently applied to the same ID-NAT screening data. RESULTS: The HBV WP transmission risk in South African repeat donations during a one-year Ultrio Plus NAT screening period was estimated as 22, 43 and 17 per million, respectively, for the three models, as compared to 56, 117 and 48 per million for HBsAg PRISM screening. The approximate two-fold higher estimate calculated with the NAT yield WP ratio model was corroborated in repeat donations from three of four regions in a multi-regional study. When another set of model input values (with shorter viraemia periods and a higher proportion of acute occult infections) was applied to the South African screening data, the relative difference in risk estimates between the three models became smaller. CONCLUSIONS: Window period risk modelling for HBV is more complex than for HIV. Multiple factors affect the modelling outcomes. These include the values used for the length of transient HBsAg and HBV-DNA-positive phases, the proportion of acute occult and vaccine breakthrough infections and the assumption of random appearance of donors throughout the entire acute resolving infection phase. A substantial proportion of HBV WP NAT yields have very low viral load and lack donor follow-up data calling into question their definitive classification into the early acute (infectious) replication stage. Since these possible WP NAT yields most highly impact the NAT yield WP ratio model, we recommend relying on the more conservative estimates of the incidence rate-WP risk day equivalent model.

Reassessment of hepatitis B virus window periods for two transcription-mediated amplification assays using screening data of South African blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Transcription-mediated amplification assays for HBV DNA detection have transitioned from the Ultrio to the Ultrio Plus assay, which features increased analytic sensitivity due to inclusion of a target enhancer reagent. The impact on HBV detection for different categories of HBV infection has not been fully evaluated. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) detection rates as well as viral load (VL) distributions in HBV nucleic acid test (NAT)-yield samples were compared during 1 year of screening of South African blood donors with the Ultrio assay and the subsequent year by the Ultrio Plus version. HBV-DNA concentration at the HBsAg seroconversion point was established by regression analysis using a set of antibody to hepatitis B core antigen-negative acute viremic samples. RESULTS: Ultrio Plus detected twofold more window-period (WP) NAT yield donations and 1.7-fold more occult HBV infections than Ultrio. The VL distribution data indicated that Ultrio not only missed samples of less than 100 copies/mL, but also a substantial number higher than this level. The VL at the HBsAg seroconversion point was estimated at 916 copies/mL, whereas the VL at the NAT-conversion points was calculated at 63 and 4.1 copies/mL for Ultrio and Ultrio Plus. This reduced the infectious WP (compared to HBsAg testing) by 10.3 and 20.4 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: The higher-than-expected increase in HBV-NAT yields after introduction of the Ultrio Plus assay is likely attributable to variable sensitivity of the former Ultrio assay for different HBV samples. Therefore, previously published HBV WP reduction and residual risk estimates based on analytical sensitivity of the Ultrio assay need to be revised.

Assessment of HIV transfusion transmission risk in South Africa: a 10-year analysis following implementation of individual donation nucleic acid amplification technology testing and donor demographics eligibility changes.

BACKGROUND: In 1998 we estimated that 34/million infectious window period donations were entering the blood supply at the South African National Blood Service. Selective use of donations based on donor race-ethnicity reduced this risk to 26/million donations but was deemed unethical. Consequently, in 2005 South African National Blood Service eliminated race-ethnicity-based collection policies and implemented individual-donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT). We describe the change in donor base demographics, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) detection rates, and transfusion-transmissible HIV risk. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In ten years 7.7 million donations were tested for anti-HIV and HIV RNA. Number of donations, HIV prevalence, ID-NAT yield rate, serology yield rate and residual transfusion-transmissible HIV risk were analyzed by donor type, race-ethnicity, age, and sex. Multiple regression analysis was performed to investigate the determinants of HIV-positive and nucleic acid testing yield donations. RESULTS: The combined strategy of increasing donations from black donors and implementing ID-NAT increased the proportion of donations from black donors from 6% in 2005 to 30% in 2015 (p < 0.00001), and reduced the transfusion-transmissible risk from 24 to 13 per million transfusions. ID-NAT interdicted 481 (1:16,100) seronegative window period donations, while one transfusion-transmissible case (0.13 per million) was documented. Race-ethnicity and donor type were highly significant predictors of HIV positivity, with adjusted odds ratio for first-time donors of 12.5 (95% confidence interval, 11.9-13.1) and for black race-ethnicity of 31.1 (95% confidence interval, 28.9-33.4). The proportion of serology yields among HIV-infected donors increased from 0.27% to 2.4%. CONCLUSION: ID-NAT enabled the South African National Blood Service to increase the number of donations from black donors fivefold while enhancing the safety of the blood supply.

The prevalence of human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 & 2 (HTLV-1/2) in South African blood donors.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Donated blood is not currently screened for human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV) in South Africa. Several small studies have detected HTLV-1 in South Africa, but prevalence by geographic region or population group is unavailable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a large seroprevalence study of South African blood donors during 3 months in 2013. All geographic regions except the Western Cape were included, and Black and Coloured (local term for mixed race) donors were oversampled. Identity-unlinked plasma samples were screened with the Abbott Prism HTLV-1/2 assay, and repeatedly reactive samples were tested by the Inno-LIA HTLV-1/2 Score confirmatory assay. Odds ratios were calculated with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 46 752 donors tested, 133 (0·28%) were initially reactive, 111 (0·24%) repeatedly reactive and 57 (0·12%) confirmed positive for HTLV-1; none were HTLV-2 positive. Prevalence was 0·062% weighted to annual blood donations but highly concentrated in the Black population group (OR = 20·24 CI: 2·77-147·88); higher in females than males (OR = 1·81 CI: 1·06-3·08); and in donors aged >50 years compared to ages 16-19 (OR = 6·4 CI: 2·95-13·86). After controlling for age, sex and population group, there was no difference in prevalence between new and repeat blood donors or among geographic regions within South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that HTLV-1 infection is widespread among the Black population of South Africa and its epidemiology is similar to other endemic areas. Because South Africa is increasing its recruitment of Black blood donors, the implications for blood screening require further consideration.

Transmitted/founder and chronic subtype C HIV-1 use CD4 and CCR5 receptors with equal efficiency and are not inhibited by blocking the integrin α4ß7.

Sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) most often results from productive infection by a single transmitted/founder (T/F) virus, indicating a stringent mucosal bottleneck. Understanding the viral traits that overcome this bottleneck could have important implications for HIV-1 vaccine design and other prevention strategies. Most T/F viruses use CCR5 to infect target cells and some encode envelope glycoproteins (Envs) that contain fewer potential N-linked glycosylation sites and shorter V1/V2 variable loops than Envs from chronic viruses. Moreover, it has been reported that the gp120 subunits of certain transmitted Envs bind to the gut-homing integrin α4ß7, possibly enhancing virus entry and cell-to-cell spread. Here we sought to determine whether subtype C T/F viruses, which are responsible for the majority of new HIV-1 infections worldwide, share biological properties that increase their transmission fitness, including preferential α4ß7 engagement. Using single genome amplification, we generated panels of both T/F (n = 20) and chronic (n = 20) Env constructs as well as full-length T/F (n = 6) and chronic (n = 4) infectious molecular clones (IMCs). We found that T/F and chronic control Envs were indistinguishable in the efficiency with which they used CD4 and CCR5. Both groups of Envs also exhibited the same CD4+ T cell subset tropism and showed similar sensitivity to neutralization by CD4 binding site (CD4bs) antibodies. Finally, saturating concentrations of anti-α4ß7 antibodies failed to inhibit infection and replication of T/F as well as chronic control viruses, although the growth of the tissue culture-adapted strain SF162 was modestly impaired. These results indicate that the population bottleneck associated with mucosal HIV-1 acquisition is not due to the selection of T/F viruses that use α4ß7, CD4 or CCR5 more efficiently.

A mathematical approach to estimate the efficacy of individual-donation and minipool nucleic acid amplification test options in preventing transmission risk by window period and occult hepatitis B virus infections.

BACKGROUND: Sensitivity data from a head-to-head comparison study in South Africa were used to compare the efficacy of the Ultrio Plus assay in individual-donation (ID) and minipool (MP)4 and MP8 formats with that of TaqScreen MP6 in preventing hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission risk. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The replicate nucleic acid test (NAT) results on 106 HBV NAT (Ultrio)-yield samples and 29 HBV DNA (Ultrio)-negative, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive samples were used to determine the viral load in copies/mL against the Eurohep HBV standard by probit analysis. Random viral load distributions were established in 32 pre-HBsAg window period (WP), 15 post-HBsAg WP, and 56 occult HBV infection (OBI) donations. Regression analysis of log viral load and Poisson distribution statistics of infectious HBV particles in blood components was used to predict infectivity and efficacy of NAT options in removing HBV transmission risk. RESULTS: For red blood cell transfusions (20 mL of plasma), the modeling predicted an Ultrio Plus ID-NAT efficacy of 68 and 83% in removing WP and (antibody to hepatitis B surface antigen-negative) OBI transmission risk, respectively, compared to 52 and 49% by TaqScreen MP6. For 200 mL of fresh-frozen plasma the estimated efficacy levels by these ID- and MP6-NAT options reduced to 57 and 44% for WP and to 67 and 34% for OBI donations, respectively. CONCLUSION: The efficacy of the currently available commercial NAT systems in reducing HBV transmission risk is mainly driven by the pool size and the transfusion plasma volume. The modeled OBI transmission risk and NAT efficacy levels were in line with those recently reported in three lookback studies and give more insight in the incremental safety provided by HBsAg and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen testing of ID-NAT screened blood.

Sensitivity of individual-donation and minipool nucleic acid amplification test options in detecting window period and occult hepatitis B virus infections.

BACKGROUND: Several comparison studies showed that the Ultrio assay (Novartis Diagnostics) used in individual-donation nucleic acid amplification testing (ID-NAT) format was as sensitive as the TaqScreen assay (Roche) on minipools of six donations (MP6), but the sensitivity of HBV DNA detection has been improved in the new Ultrio Plus version of the assay. A head-to-head comparison study was designed to compare the clinical sensitivity of the Ultrio and Ultrio Plus assay in ID, MP4, and MP8 formats using TaqScreen MP6 as a reference assay. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Plasma samples of 107 hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-negative, HBV ID-NAT (Ultrio) positive-yield samples and 29 HBV DNA-negative, HBsAg-positive samples were used for comparison of NAT options in replicate testing of dilutions. Viral loads and relative sensitivities were determined by probit analysis against the Eurohep standard. RESULTS: Ultrio Plus detected a significantly (p < 0.00001) higher proportion of replicate assays on HBV NAT yields (77%) than Ultrio ID (62%) and TaqScreen MP6 (47%), whereas Ultrio Plus MP4 and MP8 detected 53 and 41%, respectively. On HBsAg-yield samples missed by Ultrio screening, the reactivity rate increased significantly (p < 0.0001) from 23% in Ultrio to 65% in Ultrio Plus and further to 72% (p = 0.10) in the TaqScreen assay. The overall improvement factor of the analytical sensitivity offered by the target enhancer reagent in the Ultrio Plus assay was 2.5 (2.0-3.1)-fold on the Ultrio yield samples, but 43 (11-350)-fold on the HBsAg yields. In ID-NAT format the analytical sensitivity of TaqScreen relative to Ultrio Plus was 2.0 (1.0-4.2), 0.9 (0.7-1.3), and 1.6 (0.9-3.0) on the Eurohep standard, HBV NAT-, and HBsAg-yield samples respectively. CONCLUSION: The clinical sensitivity of the currently available commercial NAT methods is mainly driven by the pool size.

Comparison of human immunodeficiency virus assays in window phase and elite controller samples: viral load distribution and implications for transmission risk.

BACKGROUND: After 3 years of individual-donation nucleic acid test (ID-NAT) screening by the South African National Blood Service (SANBS), a repository of 73 human immunodeficiency virus antibody (anti-HIV)-negative window period (WP)-yield samples and 28 anti-HIV-positive, HIV-RNA-negative elite controllers (ECs) became available for comparison of a p24 antigen (p24 Ag) assay (Innogenetics), two viral load assays (Siemens branch DNA [bDNA] 3.0 and Abbott real-time polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]), and three triplex NAT assays (Novartis Diagnostics Ultrio and Ultrio-Plus and Roche TaqScreen) by replicate testing of dilutions. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Viral loads were assessed by bDNA and RT-PCR assays and if below 100 copies (cps)/mL, by Ultrio limiting dilution probit analysis. The probability of virus transmission by WP and EC donations was estimated for different levels of the 50% minimum infectious dose (ID50 ) using Poisson distribution statistics. RESULTS: The equal distribution of WP donations plotted by log HIV-RNA levels indicated a random appearance of donors in the ramp-up phase. The HIV p24 Ag assay detected 45% of WP samples and the cutoff crossing point was estimated at 8140 (bDNA)/22,710 (RT-PCR) cps/mL. On replicate retesting of 40 HIV p24 Ag-negative ID-NAT WP-yield samples Ultrio minipool (MP)8, Ultrio-Plus MP8, and TaqScreen MP6 detected 79, 81, and 78%, respectively. Modeling with an estimated ID50 of 31.6 virions/RBC indicated that 15% of p24 Ag-negative ID-NAT WP-yield donations would have transmitted HIV if MP6-8 NAT had been used. Only 2% of RBC transfusions from ECs are estimated to be infectious with a worst-case ID50 estimate of 316 virions. CONCLUSION: Our analysis of viremia and infectivity of WP and EC donations enables comparison of the efficacy of NAT options in preventing HIV transmission risk.

Hepatitis B virus transmission by blood transfusion during 4 years of individual-donation nucleic acid testing in South Africa: estimated and observed window period risk.

BACKGROUND: Since October 2005, a total of 2,921,561 blood donations have been screened by the South African National Blood Service for hepatitis B virus (HBV) by individual-donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT). Over 4 years, 149 hepatitis B surface antigen-negative acute-phase HBV NAT-positive donations were identified (1:19,608). The lookback program identified one probable HBV transmission. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The complete genomes of HBV isolated from the donor and recipient were sequenced, cloned, and analyzed phylogenetically. The HBV window period (WP) transmission risk was estimated assuming a minimum infectious dose of 3.7 HBV virions and an incidence rate correction factor of 1.34 for transient detectability of HBV DNA. RESULTS: Of 149 acute-phase HBV NAT yields, 114 (1:25,627) were classified as pre-antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) WP and 35 (1:83,473) as post-anti-HBc WP. The acute-phase transmission risk in the HBV DNA-negative pre- and post-anti-HBc WPs (of 15.3 and 1.3 days, respectively) was estimated at 1:40,000 and 1:480,000, respectively. One HBV transmission (1:2,900,000) was identified in a patient who received a transfusion from an ID-NAT-nonreactive donor in the pre-anti-HBc WP. Sequence analysis confirmed transmission of HBV Subgenotype A1 with 99.7% nucleotide homology between donor and recipient strains. The viral burden in the infectious red blood cell unit was estimated at 32 (22-43) HBV DNA copies/20 mL of plasma. CONCLUSION: We report the first known case of transfusion-transmitted HBV infection by blood screened using ID-NAT giving an observed HBV transmission rate of 0.34 per million. The estimated pre-acute-phase transmission risk in the ID-NAT screened donor population was 73-fold higher than the observed WP transmission rate.

Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in South Africa in March 2022.

In line with previous instalments of analysis from this ongoing study to monitor 'Covid Seroprevalence' among blood donors in South Africa, we report on an analysis of 3395 samples obtained in mid-March 2022 from all provinces of South Africa - a timepoint just after the fourth (primarily omicron) wave of infections. As in our previous analyses, we see no evidence of age and sex dependence of prevalence, but significant variation by race. Differences between provinces have largely disappeared, as prevalence appears to have saturated. In contrast to previous estimates from this study, which reported only prevalence of anti-nucleocapsid antibodies, this present work also reports results from testing for anti-spike antibodies. This addition allows us to categorise those donors whose only antibodies are from vaccination. Our race-weighted national extrapolation is that 98% of South Africans have some antibodies, noting that 10% have anti-spike antibodies but not anti-nucleocapsid antibodies - a reasonable proxy for having both 1) been vaccinated and 2) avoided infection.

Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in eight provinces of South Africa in November 2021.

In line with previous instalments of analysis from this ongoing study to monitor 'Covid Seroprevalence' among blood donors in South Africa, we report on analysis of 3395 samples obtained from 8 to 12 November 2021 in all provinces of South Africa except the Western Cape. As in our previous analyses, we see no evidence of age and sex dependence of prevalence, but substantial variation by province, and by race within each province, from which we generated provincial total point estimates (EC-74%; FS-75%; GP-68%; ZN-73%; LP-66; MP-73%; NC-63%; NW-81% ) and a 'South Africa minus Western Cape' national prevalence estimate of 71% (95%CI 69-74%). We note that sample collection occurred just before the omicron variant driven wave in South Africa, but otherwise present these results without significant interpretation.

Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and Free State provinces of South Africa in January 2021.

Background: Population-level estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity (seroprevalence) is a crucial epidemiological indicator for tracking the Covid-19 epidemic. Such data are in short supply, both internationally and in South Africa. The South African blood services (the South African National Blood Service, SANBS and the Western Cape Blood Service, WCBS) are coordinating a nationally representative survey of blood donors, which it is hoped can become a cost-effective surveillance method with validity for community-level seroprevalence estimation. Methods: Leveraging existing arrangements, SANBS human research ethics committee permission was obtained to test blood donations collected on predefined days (7th, 10th, 12th, 15th, 20th, 23th and 25th January) for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, using the Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay on the cobas e411 platform currently available in the blood services' donation testing laboratories. Using standard methods, prevalence analysis was done by province, age and race, allowing age to be regarded as either a continuous or categorical variable. Testing was performed in the Eastern Cape (EC), Free State (FS), KwaZulu Natal (ZN) and Northern Cape (NC) provinces. Results: We report on data from 4858 donors - 1457 in EC; 463 in NC; 831 in FS and 2107 in ZN. Prevalence varied substantially across race groups and between provinces, with seroprevalence among Black donors consistently several times higher than among White donors, and the other main population groups (Coloured and Asian) not consistently represented in all provinces. There is no clear evidence that seroprevalence among donors varies by age. Weighted net estimates of prevalence (in the core age range 15-69) by province (compared with official clinically-confirmed COVID-19 case rates in mid-January 2021) are: EC-63%(2.8%), NC-32%(2.2%), FS-46%(2.4%), and ZN-52%(2.4%). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates substantial differences in dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 infection between different race groups, most likely explained by historically based differences in socio-economic status and housing conditions. As has been seen in other areas, even such high seroprevalence does not guarantee population-level immunity against new outbreaks - probably due to viral evolution and waning of antibody neutralization. Despite its limitations, notably a 'healthy donor' effect, it seems plausible that these estimates are reasonably generalisable to actual population level anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, but should be further verified.