Treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis is predicted by the microbiome: a large observational study in UK DMARD-naïve patients.

OBJECTIVES: Disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) are first line treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Treatment response to DMARDs is patient-specific, dose efficacy is difficult to predict and long-term results variable. The gut microbiota are known to play a pivotal role in prodromal and early-disease RA, manifested by Prevotella spp. enrichment. The clinical response to therapy may be mediated by microbiota, and large-scale studies assessing the microbiome are few. This study assessed whether microbiome signals were associated with, and predictive of, patient response to DMARD-treatment. Accurate early identification of those who will respond poorly to DMARD therapy would allow selection of alternative treatment (e.g. biologic therapy), and potentially improve patient outcome. METHODS: A multicentre, longitudinal, observational study of stool- and saliva microbiome was performed in DMARD-naïve, newly diagnosed RA patients during introduction of DMARD treatment. Clinical data and samples were collected at baseline (n = 144) in DMARD-naïve patients and at six weeks (n = 117) and 12 weeks (n = 95) into DMARD-therapy. Samples collected (n = 365 stool, n = 365 saliva) underwent shotgun sequencing. Disease activity measures were collected at each timepoint and minimal clinically important improvement determined. RESULTS: In total, 26 stool microbes were found to decrease in those manifesting a minimal clinically important improvement. Prevotella spp. and Streptococcus spp. were the predominant taxa to decline following six weeks and 12 weeks of DMARDs, respectively. Furthermore, baseline microbiota of DMARD-naïve patients were indicative of future response. CONCLUSION: DMARDs appear to restore a perturbed microbiome to a eubiotic state. Moreover, microbiome status can be used to predict likelihood of patient response to DMARD.

Are current machine learning applications comparable to radiologist classification of degenerate and herniated discs and Modic change? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Low back pain is the leading contributor to disability burden globally. It is commonly due to degeneration of the lumbar intervertebral discs (LDD). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the current best tool to visualize and diagnose LDD, but places high time demands on clinical radiologists. Automated reading of spine MRIs could improve speed, accuracy, reliability and cost effectiveness in radiology departments. The aim of this review and meta-analysis was to determine if current machine learning algorithms perform well identifying disc degeneration, herniation, bulge and Modic change compared to radiologists. METHODS: A PRISMA systematic review protocol was developed and four electronic databases and reference lists were searched. Strict inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined. A PROBAST risk of bias and applicability analysis was performed. RESULTS: 1350 articles were extracted. Duplicates were removed and title and abstract searching identified original research articles that used machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify disc degeneration, herniation, bulge and Modic change from MRIs. 27 studies were included in the review; 25 and 14 studies were included multi-variate and bivariate meta-analysis, respectively. Studies used machine learning algorithms to assess LDD, disc herniation, bulge and Modic change. Models using deep learning, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, random forest and naïve Bayes algorithms were included. Meta-analyses found no differences in algorithm or classification performance. When algorithms were tested in replication or external validation studies, they did not perform as well as when assessed in developmental studies. Data augmentation improved algorithm performance when compared to models used with smaller datasets, there were no performance differences between augmented data and large datasets. DISCUSSION: This review highlights several shortcomings of current approaches, including few validation attempts or use of large sample sizes. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first systematic review to explore this topic. We suggest the utilization of deep learning coupled with semi- or unsupervised learning approaches. Use of all information contained in MRI data will improve accuracy. Clear and complete reporting of study design, statistics and results will improve the reliability and quality of published literature.

No evidence of association between either Modic change or disc degeneration and five circulating inflammatory proteins.

Introduction: Intervertebral disc degeneration and Modic change are the main spinal structural changes associated with chronic low back pain (LBP). Both conditions are thought to manifest local inflammation and if inflammatory proteins translocate to the blood circulation could be detected systemically. The work here assesses whether the presence of disc degeneration is associated with detectable blood level changes of five inflammatory markers and whether chronic LBP is associated with these changes. Materials and Methods: Two hundred and forty TwinsUK cohort participants with both MRI disc degeneration grade and Modic change extent, and IL-6, IL-8, IL-8 TNF, and CX3CL1 protein blood concentration measurements were included in this work. Linear mixed effects models were used to test the association of blood cytokine concentration with disc degeneration score and Modic change volumetric score. Association of chronic LBP status from questionnaires with disc degeneration, Modic change, and cytokine blood concentration was also tested. Results: No statistically significant association between disc degeneration or Modic change with cytokine blood concentration was found. Instead, regression analysis pointed strong association between cytokine blood concentration with body mass index for IL-6 and with age for IL-6 and TNF. Mild association was found between IL-8 blood concentration and body mass index. Additionally, LBP status was associated with Modic change volumetric score but not associated with any cytokine concentration. Conclusions: We found no evidence that Modic change and disc degeneration are able to produce changes in tested blood cytokine concentration. However, age and body mass index have strong influence on cytokine concentration and both are associated with the conditions studied which may confound associations found in the literature. It is then unlikely that cytokines produced in the disc or vertebral bone marrow induce chronic LBP.

The association of lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration with low back pain is modified by underlying genetic propensity to pain.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Associations between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration (LDD) and LBP are often of modest magnitude. This association may be larger in specific patient subgroups. PURPOSE: To examine whether the association between LDD and LBP is modified by underlying genetic predispositions to pain. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study in UK Biobank (UKB) and TwinsUK. PATIENT SAMPLES: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the number of anatomical chronic pain locations was conducted in 347,538 UKB participants. The GWAS was used to develop a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) in a holdout sample of 30,000 UKB participants. The PRS model was then used in analyses of 645 TwinsUK participants with standardized LDD MRI assessments. OUTCOME MEASURES: Ever having had LBP associated with disability lasting ≥1 month (LBP1). METHODS: Using the PRS as a proxy for "genetically-predicted propensity to pain", we stratified TwinsUK participants into PRS quartiles. A "basic" model examined the association between an LDD summary score (LSUM) and LBP1, adjusting for covariates. A "fully-adjusted" model also adjusted for PRS quartile and LSUM x PRS quartile interaction terms. RESULTS: In the basic model, the odds ratio (OR) of LBP1 was 1.8 per standard deviation of LSUM (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4 -2.3). In the fully-adjusted model, there was a statistically significant LSUM-LBP1 association in quartile 4, the highest PRS quartile (OR = 2.5 [95% CI 1.7-3.7], p=2.6×10-6), and in quartile 3 (OR=2.0, [95% CI 1.3-3.0]; p=0.002), with small-magnitude and/or non-significant associations in the lowest two PRS quartiles. PRS quartile was a significant effect modifier of the LSUM-LBP1 association (interaction p≤0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Genetically-predicted propensity to pain modifies the LDD-LBP association, with the strongest association present in people with the highest genetic propensity to pain. Lumbar MRI findings may have stronger connections to LBP in specific subgroups of people.

Development and Replication of a Genome-Wide Polygenic Risk Score for Chronic Back Pain.

Chronic back pain (CBP) is a complex heritable trait and a major cause of disability worldwide. We developed and validated a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) for CBP using a large-scale GWAS based on UK Biobank participants of European ancestry (N = 265,000). The PRS showed poor overall predictive ability (AUC = 0.56 and OR = 1.24 per SD, 95% CI: 1.22-1.26), but individuals from the 99th percentile of PRS distribution had a nearly two-fold increased risk of CBP (OR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.06). We validated the PRS on an independent TwinsUK sample, obtaining a similar magnitude of effect. The PRS was significantly associated with various ICD-10 and OPCS-4 diagnostic codes, including chronic ischemic heart disease (OR = 1.1, p-value = 4.8 × 10-15), obesity, metabolism-related traits, spine disorders, disc degeneration, and arthritis-related disorders. PRS and environment interaction analysis with twelve known CBP risk factors revealed no significant results, suggesting that the magnitude of G × E interactions with studied factors is small. The limited predictive ability of the PRS that we developed is likely explained by the complexity, heterogeneity, and polygenicity of CBP, for which sample sizes of a few hundred thousand are insufficient to estimate small genetic effects robustly.

Cartilaginous endplates: A comprehensive review on a neglected structure in intervertebral disc research.

The cartilaginous endplates (CEP) are key components of the intervertebral disc (IVD) necessary for sustaining the nutrition of the disc while distributing mechanical loads and preventing the disc from bulging into the adjacent vertebral body. The size, shape, and composition of the CEP are essential in maintaining its function, and degeneration of the CEP is considered a contributor to early IVD degeneration. In addition, the CEP is implicated in Modic changes, which are often associated with low back pain. This review aims to tackle the current knowledge of the CEP regarding its structure, composition, permeability, and mechanical role in a healthy disc, how they change with degeneration, and how they connect to IVD degeneration and low back pain. Additionally, the authors suggest a standardized naming convention regarding the CEP and bony endplate and suggest avoiding the term vertebral endplate. Currently, there is limited data on the CEP itself as reported data is often a combination of CEP and bony endplate, or the CEP is considered as articular cartilage. However, it is clear the CEP is a unique tissue type that differs from articular cartilage, bony endplate, and other IVD tissues. Thus, future research should investigate the CEP separately to fully understand its role in healthy and degenerated IVDs. Further, most IVD regeneration therapies in development failed to address, or even considered the CEP, despite its key role in nutrition and mechanical stability within the IVD. Thus, the CEP should be considered and potentially targeted for future sustainable treatments.

Immuno-Modulatory Effects of Intervertebral Disc Cells.

Low back pain is a highly prevalent, chronic, and costly medical condition predominantly triggered by intervertebral disc degeneration (IDD). IDD is often caused by structural and biochemical changes in intervertebral discs (IVD) that prompt a pathologic shift from an anabolic to catabolic state, affecting extracellular matrix (ECM) production, enzyme generation, cytokine and chemokine production, neurotrophic and angiogenic factor production. The IVD is an immune-privileged organ. However, during degeneration immune cells and inflammatory factors can infiltrate through defects in the cartilage endplate and annulus fibrosus fissures, further accelerating the catabolic environment. Remarkably, though, catabolic ECM disruption also occurs in the absence of immune cell infiltration, largely due to native disc cell production of catabolic enzymes and cytokines. An unbalanced metabolism could be induced by many different factors, including a harsh microenvironment, biomechanical cues, genetics, and infection. The complex, multifactorial nature of IDD brings the challenge of identifying key factors which initiate the degenerative cascade, eventually leading to back pain. These factors are often investigated through methods including animal models, 3D cell culture, bioreactors, and computational models. However, the crosstalk between the IVD, immune system, and shifted metabolism is frequently misconstrued, often with the assumption that the presence of cytokines and chemokines is synonymous to inflammation or an immune response, which is not true for the intact disc. Therefore, this review will tackle immunomodulatory and IVD cell roles in IDD, clarifying the differences between cellular involvements and implications for therapeutic development and assessing models used to explore inflammatory or catabolic IVD environments.