Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trend of Childhood Tuberculosis in Brazil.

Tuberculosis (TB) in children presents specificities in its diagnosis, which makes it prone to underreporting: therefore, the disease in this group is still a serious public health problem in several countries. We aimed to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of childhood TB in Brazil. An ecological study with time series, spatial analysis, and description of cases in Brazil between 2010-2021 was conducted. A total of 1,054,263 TB cases were reported in the period, with 30,001 (2.8%) in children. The yearly average was 2,500 cases, with a trend toward an increase in the incidence rate in 2018 and 2019 and a decline in 2020. Children under 5 years old represented 38.2% of cases, 5.2% were indigenous, and 424 children (1.4%) died. Sputum culture was performed for 18.4% of pulmonary TB. The incidence rates were higher in municipalities in the north and midwest regions, with high occurrence locations (hot spots), especially on borders with other countries. There was a reduction in childhood TB in 2020, possibly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies are needed for the identification and monitoring of childhood TB, with reinforcement of professional training for assistance and control, especially in the most vulnerable locations and groups.

Trend and Spatial Distribution of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Liberty-Deprived Populations in the State of Paraná, Brazil.

(1) Background: Tuberculosis remains a public health problem in the world. This study evaluated the temporal trends, distribution, and spatial associations of drug-resistant tuberculosis in liberty-deprived populations in the state of Paraná, Brazil. (2) Methods: An ecological study was developed using all cases of drug-resistant tuberculosis in penal establishments reported by the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2008 and 2018. For the time trend, the Prais-Winsten method was used. To verify the spatial association, the Getis-Ord Gi* technique was used. (3) Results: During the study period, 653 cases of tuberculosis were reported in the studied population, of which 98 (15%) were drug-resistant. Prais-Winsten autoregression identified an increasing trend, with APC = 15.08% (95% CI: 0.02-0.09) from 2008 to 2018; when analyzed from 2012 to 2018, the trend increased even more, with APC = 23.31% (95% CI: 0.01-0.16). Hotspots were also noted in the north, east, and west macro-regions of the state. (4) Conclusions: The presence of drug-resistant tuberculosis, as well as an increasing trend of these cases, was evidenced in all regions of the state among liberty-deprived populations,. The spatial analysis revealed priority areas for drug-resistant tuberculosis in penal establishments.

Impact and trend of COVID-19 in the Brazilian prison system: an ecological study. / Impacto e tendência da COVID-19 no sistema penitenciário do Brasil: um estudo ecológico.

Given the rapid spread of new coronavirus within the prison system, this study's objective was to identify spatial clusters for the occurrence of COVID-19 in the incarcerated population and analyze temporal trends of confirmed cases in the Brazilian prison system. This ecological study considered the five Brazilian macro-regions to be units of analysis, with its 26 states and the Federal District. The population was composed of all COVID-19 cases confirmed from April 14th to August 31st, 2020. The source used to collect data was the COVID-19 Monitoring Panel from the National Prison Department. Descriptive analysis, scan statistics, and time series were performed. A total of 18,767 COVID-19 cases were reported among the incarcerated population, 4,724 in São Paulo. The scan statistic analysis resulted in 14 spatial risk clusters for COVID-19 among persons deprived of liberty; the highest-risk cluster was in the Federal District. Although the country ends the series with a decreasing behavior, a growing trend was verified in most of the study period. The conclusion is that there is a need to implement mass testing among the incarcerated population while continually monitoring and recording COVID-19 cases.

Tendo em vista a rápida disseminação do novo coronavírus no sistema prisional, o presente trabalho teve como objetivos identificar aglomerados espaciais para ocorrência da COVID-19 na população privada de liberdade (PPL) e analisar a tendência temporal dos casos confirmados no sistema penitenciário do Brasil. Estudo ecológico que considerou como unidades de análise as cinco macrorregiões do Brasil, seus 26 estados e o Distrito Federal. A população foi composta por todos os casos de COVID-19 confirmados, no período de 14 de abril a 31 de agosto de 2020. A fonte de dados utilizada foi o Painel de Monitoramento dos casos de COVID-19 nos sistemas prisionais do Departamento Penitenciário Nacional. Realizou-se análise descritiva, estatística de varredura e análise da tendência temporal. Foram notificados 18.767 casos de COVID-19 na PPL, dos quais 4.724 ocorreram no estado de São Paulo. A estatística de varredura possibilitou a identificação de 14 clusters espaciais de risco para COVID-19 na PPL, sendo o aglomerado de maior risco formado pelo Distrito Federal. Embora o país finalize a série com um comportamento decrescente, observa-se que no período de investigação a tendência apresentou um comportamento maioritariamente crescente. Evidencia-se a necessidade de testagem em massa, monitoramento e registro contínuo dos casos de COVID-19 na PPL do país.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (-0.27% per month, 95%CI -0.13 to -0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (-9.21% per month, CI95% -1.37 to -16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

Patients' perceptions regarding multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and barriers to seeking care in a priority city in Brazil during COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study.

This study aimed to analyze the discourses of patients who were diagnosed with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, the perception of why they acquired this health condition and barriers to seeking care in a priority city in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was an exploratory qualitative study, which used the theoretical-methodological framework of the Discourse Analysis of French matrix, guided by the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research. The study was conducted in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. Seven participants were interviewed who were undergoing treatment at the time of the interview. The analysis of the participants' discourses allowed the emergence of four discursive blocks: (1) impact of the social determinants in the development of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, (2) barriers to seeking care and difficulties accessing health services, (3) perceptions of the side effects and their impact on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, and (4) tuberculosis and COVID-19: a necessary dialogue. Through discursive formations, these revealed the determinants of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Considering the complexity involved in the dynamics of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, advancing in terms of equity in health, that is, in reducing unjust differences, is a challenge for public policies, especially at the current moment in Brazil, which is of accentuated economic, political and social crisis. The importance of psychosocial stressors and the lack of social support should also be highlighted as intermediary determinants of health. The study has also shown the situation of COVID-19, which consists of an important barrier for patients seeking care. Many patients reported fear, insecurity and worry with regard to returning to medical appointments, which might contribute to the worsening of tuberculosis in the scenario under study.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen's Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

Morbimortalidade por COVID-19 associada a condições crônicas, serviços de saúde e iniquidades: evidências de sindemia / COVID-19 morbidity and mortality associated with chronic disorders, healthcare services, and inequity: evidence for a syndemic / Morbimortalidad por COVID-19 asociada a los problemas crónicos de salud, los servicios de salud y las inequidades: evidencia de sindemia

RESUMO Objetivo. Identificar os fatores correlacionados à incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19 e verificar situações de sindemia em escala global. Métodos. Realizou-se um estudo ecológico de casos e óbitos confirmados de COVID-19 a partir de informações coletadas do European Center for Disease Prevention and Control em 2019 e 2020. Para a caracterização dos países, utilizaram-se indicadores do Banco Mundial e Worldometer Coronavirus. Foram realizadas análises descritivas e de correlação entre as variáveis independentes para posteriormente realizar o modelo de regressão linear múltipla, com o objetivo de identificar os fatores correlacionados à incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19. Resultados. Obtiveram-se dados de 185 países. A média da incidência dos casos foi de 16 482/mil habitantes, enquanto a média para mortalidade por COVID-19 foi de 291/mil habitantes, sendo América do Norte e Leste Asiático e Pacífico as regiões que apresentaram maiores e menores índices, respectivamente. Identificouse correlação positiva da taxa de incidência com proporção da população com idade de 15 a 64 anos, população urbana, desigualdade conforme Índice de Gini e com seis das sete regiões analisadas (exceto Leste Asiático e Pacífico). A taxa de mortalidade apresentou correlação negativa com a população de 0 a 14 anos e positiva com população urbana, desigualdade conforme índice de Gini e todas as regiões analisadas, exceto Leste Asiático e Pacífico. Conclusões. A morbimortalidade da COVID-19 esteve correlacionada à carga de condições crônicas, ao envelhecimento da população e à baixa capacidade dos serviços de saúde para testagem e oferta de leitos hospitalares, quadro agravado em países ou regiões com elevada desigualdade social, caracterizando uma situação de sindemia.

ABSTRACT Objective. To identify factors correlated with the incidence and mortality from COVID-19 and investigate syndemic situations at the global level. Method. An ecologic study of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths was performed using information collected from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2019 and 2020. World Bank indicators and information obtained from Worldometer Coronavirus were used to characterize the countries. Descriptive analyses and correlations between independent variables were performed, followed by multiple linear regression analysis to identify factors correlated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Results. Data were obtained for 185 countries. Mean case incidence was 16 482/1,000 population, whereas mean COVID-19 mortality was 291/1,000 population, with the highest and lowest rates recorded in North America and East Asia and Pacific respectively. A positive correlation was identified between incidence rate and percent population aged 15 to 64 years, urban population, inequality measured by the Gini coefficient, and six out of the seven regions analyzed (except East Asia and Pacific). Mortality rate was negatively correlated with population aged 0 to 14 years and positively correlated with urban population, inequality measured by the Gini coefficient, and all regions analyzed except East Asia and Pacific. Conclusions. COVID-19 morbidity and mortality were correlated with the burden of chronic diseases, aging population, and low capacity of healthcare services for testing and providing hospital beds, a scenario complicated by social inequality in countries and regions, indicating a syndemic effect.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Identificar los factores correlacionados con la incidencia de COVID-19 y la mortalidad por esa causa y verificar las situaciones de sindemia a escala mundial. Métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico de casos de COVID-19 y de defunciones confirmadas por esa causa a partir de la información obtenida del Centro Europeo para la Prevención y el Control de las Enfermedades en el 2019 y el 2020. Para caracterizar a los países, se utilizaron indicadores del Banco Mundial y del sitio web de referencia Worldometer Coronavirus. Se hicieron análisis descriptivos y de correlación entre las variables independientes para crear posteriormente un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple con el fin de identificar los factores correlacionados con la incidencia de COVID-19 y la mortalidad por esa causa. Resultados. Se obtuvieron datos de 185 países. La tasa media de incidencia de casos de COVID-19 fue de 16 482 por mil habitantes y la tasa media de mortalidad por esa causa fue de 291 por mil habitantes. Las regiones de América del Norte y de Asia oriental y el Pacífico presentaron los mayores y menores índices, respectivamente. Se observó una correlación positiva de la tasa de incidencia con la proporción del grupo de 15 a 64 años de edad, la población urbana, la desigualdad medida por el coeficiente de Gini y seis de las siete regiones analizadas (excepto Asia oriental y el Pacífico). La tasa de mortalidad presentó una correlación negativa con el grupo de 0 a 14 años de edad y positiva con la población urbana, la desigualdad medida por el coeficiente de Gini y todas las regiones analizadas, excepto Asia oriental y el Pacífico. Conclusiones. La morbimortalidad por COVID-19 guardó una correlación con la carga de problemas crónicos de salud, el envejecimiento de la población y la poca capacidad de realizar pruebas en los servicios de salud y de ofrecer camas de hospital, cuadro agravado en los países o regiones con una elevada tasa de desigualdad social y característico de una situación de sindemia.

Impacto e tendência da COVID-19 no sistema penitenciário do Brasil: um estudo ecológico / Impact and trend of COVID-19 in the Brazilian prison system: an ecological study

Resumo Tendo em vista a rápida disseminação do novo coronavírus no sistema prisional, o presente trabalho teve como objetivos identificar aglomerados espaciais para ocorrência da COVID-19 na população privada de liberdade (PPL) e analisar a tendência temporal dos casos confirmados no sistema penitenciário do Brasil. Estudo ecológico que considerou como unidades de análise as cinco macrorregiões do Brasil, seus 26 estados e o Distrito Federal. A população foi composta por todos os casos de COVID-19 confirmados, no período de 14 de abril a 31 de agosto de 2020. A fonte de dados utilizada foi o Painel de Monitoramento dos casos de COVID-19 nos sistemas prisionais do Departamento Penitenciário Nacional. Realizou-se análise descritiva, estatística de varredura e análise da tendência temporal. Foram notificados 18.767 casos de COVID-19 na PPL, dos quais 4.724 ocorreram no estado de São Paulo. A estatística de varredura possibilitou a identificação de 14 clusters espaciais de risco para COVID-19 na PPL, sendo o aglomerado de maior risco formado pelo Distrito Federal. Embora o país finalize a série com um comportamento decrescente, observa-se que no período de investigação a tendência apresentou um comportamento maioritariamente crescente. Evidencia-se a necessidade de testagem em massa, monitoramento e registro contínuo dos casos de COVID-19 na PPL do país.

Abstract Given the rapid spread of new coronavirus within the prison system, this study's objective was to identify spatial clusters for the occurrence of COVID-19 in the incarcerated population and analyze temporal trends of confirmed cases in the Brazilian prison system. This ecological study considered the five Brazilian macro-regions to be units of analysis, with its 26 states and the Federal District. The population was composed of all COVID-19 cases confirmed from April 14th to August 31st, 2020. The source used to collect data was the COVID-19 Monitoring Panel from the National Prison Department. Descriptive analysis, scan statistics, and time series were performed. A total of 18,767 COVID-19 cases were reported among the incarcerated population, 4,724 in São Paulo. The scan statistic analysis resulted in 14 spatial risk clusters for COVID-19 among persons deprived of liberty; the highest-risk cluster was in the Federal District. Although the country ends the series with a decreasing behavior, a growing trend was verified in most of the study period. The conclusion is that there is a need to implement mass testing among the incarcerated population while continually monitoring and recording COVID-19 cases.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá / Tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose e sua distribuição espacial em Macapá-AP

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

RESUMO OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência temporal da incidência da tuberculose após a implementação do teste rápido molecular, identificar se a tuberculose apresenta variação sazonal e classificar o território de acordo com a densidade de casos e as áreas de risco em Macapá-AP. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico composto por casos de tuberculose registrados no SINAN entre 2001 e 2017. Foi utilizado o teste Prais-Winsten para classificar a tendência temporal da incidência e a Série Temporal Interrompida para identificar mudanças na tendência temporal antes e depois da implementação do teste rápido molecular, além de verificar a sazonalidade no município. Utilizou-se o estimador de Kernel para classificar a densidade de casos e estatística de varredura para identificar áreas de risco da tuberculose. RESULTADOS: Foram identificados 1730 casos, observando-se que a tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose foi decrescente (-0,27% por mês, IC95% −0,13 a −0,41). Não houve mudança de nível na série temporal após a implantação do teste molecular GeneXpert® MTB/RIF, porém, o período pós teste foi classificado como crescente em termos da incidência (+2,09% por mês, IC95% 0,92 a 3,27). Quanto à variação sazonal, apresentou crescimento (+13,7%/mês, IC95% 4,71 a 23,87) nos meses de dezembro a junho, referente ao período de chuvas - chamado inverno amazônico - e decréscimo (-9,21% por mês, IC95% −1,37 a −16,63) nos demais períodos. Por meio de Kernel, foram classificadas áreas com alta densidade de casos nos distritos Central e Norte e, com a estatística de varredura, foram identificados três aglomerados de proteção, AE1 (RR = 0,07), AE2 (RR = 0,23) e AE3 (RR = 0,36), e um aglomerado de alto risco, AE4 (RR = 1,47). CONCLUSÃO: A tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose se revelou decrescente na série temporal, todavia, um crescimento na detecção foi observado após introdução do TRM-TB, e ainda se evidenciou que há comportamento sazonal da tuberculose. A distribuição dos casos foi heterogênea, com tendência de concentração em territórios vulneráveis e de risco, evidenciando um padrão de desigualdade da doença no território.