Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and Futuna.

Background: Ending Zero-COVID is challenging, particularly when vaccine coverage is low. Considering Wallis and Futuna, a French Zero-COVID territory affected by reluctance to vaccination, low immunity and high levels of comorbidities, we investigate how targeted use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (brand name Paxlovid) can complement vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and mitigate the epidemic rebound expected when Zero-COVID ends. Methods: We developed a discrete age-stratified compartmental model describing SARS-CoV-2 spread and healthcare impact once Wallis and Futuna reopens. It accounts for comorbidity risk groups (CRG), vaccine coverage (2 doses, 3 doses), the effectiveness of vaccines (recent or old injection), treatments and NPIs. In our baseline scenario, cases aged 65+ in intermediate/high CRG and 40+ in high CRG are eligible for treatment. Findings: The epidemic is expected to start 13-20 days after reopening with a doubling time of 1.6-3.7 days. For medium transmission intensity (R0 = 5), 134 (115-156) hospital admissions are expected within 3 months, with no pharmaceutical measures. In our baseline scenario, admissions are reduced by 11%-21% if 50% of the target group receive treatment, with maximum impact when combined with NPIs and vaccination. The number of hospitalisations averted (HA) per patient treated (PT) is maximum when 65+ in high CRG are targeted (0.124 HA/PT), quickly followed by 65+ in intermediate/high CRG (0.097 HA/PT), and any 65+ (0.093 HA/PT). Expanding the target group increases both PT and HA, but marginal gains diminish. Interpretation: Modelling suggests that test and treat may contribute to the mitigation of epidemic rebounds at the end of Zero-COVID, particularly in populations with low immunity and high levels of comorbidities. Funding: RECOVER, VEO, AXA, Groupama, SpF, IBEID, INCEPTION, EMERGEN.

Presumptive diagnosis of leptospirosis before seroconversion: a review of 338 cases in Wallis and Futuna 2008 to 2015.

Leptospirosis is a common condition in Wallis and Futuna, and the definitive diagnosis needs to be established urgently at the first patient consultation, which is usually one to two days after the onset of clinical signs. As a diagnostic aid, a composite index was established based on data from 338 patients seen by the Wallis and Futuna admissions services between 2008 and 2015. The data taken into account include: age and sex of the patient, their home island, the consultation period and the results of leukocytes, platelets, CRP, creatinine and GGT tests combined with 2 major clinical signs, headache and conjunctival suffusion. Then 5 threshold limits were defined for this index, which indicates from very low risk to almost certain biologically confirmed leptospirosis. Other febrile diseases responsible for thrombocytopenia are not found in Wallis and Futuna, which probably explains the good statistical qualities of this index with a value of area under the curve equal to 0.821.

An Unprecedented High Incidence of Leptospirosis in Futuna, South Pacific, 2004 - 2014, Evidenced by Retrospective Analysis of Surveillance Data.

Futuna is a small Polynesian island in the South Pacific with a population of 3,612 in 2013. The first human leptospirosis case was confirmed in 1997. Active surveillance started in 2004. Cases were confirmed by PCR or real time PCR, or by serology using MAT or a combination of IgM-ELISA and MAT. A retrospective analysis of surveillance data shows that the disease was endemic with a mean annual incidence of 844 cases per 100,000 over an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. An epidemic peak as high as 1,945 cases per 100,000 occurred in 2008. Serogroup Australis was predominant until 2007, Icterohaemorrhagiae was dominant afterwards. Cluster analysis revealed different hot spots over time. Lifestyle habits, such as walking barefoot in irrigated taro fields or pig pens probably contributed to contamination from the swine and rodent reservoirs to humans. Severe forms were rare, and the case fatality rate was 0.5%. The medical community and general population were aware of leptospirosis and rapid treatment with amoxycillin was the main treatment, probably contributing to this low fatality rate.