The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022).

BACKGROUND: When formulating and evaluating COVID-19 vaccination strategies, an emphasis has been placed on preventing severe disease that overburdens healthcare systems and leads to mortality. However, more conventional outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and inequality indicators are warranted as additional information for policymakers. METHODS: We adopted a mathematical transmission model to describe the infectious disease dynamics of SARS-COV-2, including disease mortality and morbidity, and to evaluate (non)pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, we considered temporal immunity levels, together with the distinct transmissibility of variants of concern (VOCs) and their corresponding vaccine effectiveness. We included both general and age-specific characteristics related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our scenario study is informed by data from Belgium, focusing on the period from August 2021 until February 2022, when vaccination for children aged 5-11 years was initially not yet licensed and first booster doses were administered to adults. More specifically, we investigated the potential impact of an earlier vaccination programme for children and increased or reduced historical adult booster dose uptake. RESULTS: Through simulations, we demonstrate that increasing vaccine uptake in children aged 5-11 years in August-September 2021 could have led to reduced disease incidence and ICU occupancy, which was an essential indicator for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions and maintaining healthcare system functionality. However, an enhanced booster dose regimen for adults from November 2021 onward could have resulted in more substantial cumulative QALY gains, particularly through the prevention of elevated levels of infection and disease incidence associated with the emergence of Omicron VOC. In both scenarios, the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions could have decreased, potentially boosting economic activity and mental well-being. CONCLUSIONS: When calculating the impact of measures to mitigate disease spread in terms of life years lost due to COVID-19 mortality, we highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life of survivors. Our study underscores that disease-related morbidity could constitute a significant part of the overall health burden. Our quantitative findings depend on the specific setup of the interventions under review, which is open to debate or should be contextualised within future situations.

Were SARS-CoV-2 self-tests used for their intended purpose? The experience in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Self-testing has been promoted as a means of increasing COVID-19 test coverage. In Belgium, self-testing was recommended as a complement to the formal, provider-administered indications, such as out of courtesy before meeting others and when feared to be infected. More than a year after the introduction of self-testing their place in the test strategy was evaluated. METHODS: We assessed trends in the number of self-tests sold, the number of positive self-tests reported, the proportion sold self-tests/total tests, and the proportion of all positive tests that were confirmed self-tests. To evaluate the reason why people use self-tests, we used the results of two online surveys among members of the general population: one among 27,397 people, held in April 2021, and one among 22,354 people, held in December 2021. RESULTS: The use of self-tests became substantial from end 2021 onwards. In the period mid-November 2021 - end-of-June 2022, the average proportion of reported sold self-tests to all COVID-19 tests was 37% and 14% of all positive tests were positive self-tests. In both surveys, the main reported reasons for using a self-test were having symptoms (34% of users in April 2021 and 31% in December 2021) and after a risk contact (27% in both April and December). Moreover, the number of self-tests sold, and the number of positive self-tests reported closely followed the same trend as the provider-administered tests in symptomatic people and high risk-contacts, which reinforces the hypothesis that they were mainly used for these two indications. CONCLUSIONS: From end 2021 onwards, self-testing covered a significant part of COVID-19 testing in Belgium, which increased without doubt the testing coverage. However, the available data seem to indicate that self-testing was mostly used for indications outside of official recommendations. If and how this affected the control of the epidemic remains unknown.

Global infectious disease risks associated with occupational exposure among non-healthcare workers: a systematic review of the literature.

OBJECTIVES: Employees in non-healthcare occupations may be in several ways exposed to infectious agents. Improved knowledge about the risks is needed to identify opportunities to prevent work-related infectious diseases. The objective of the current study was to provide an updated overview of the published evidence on the exposure to pathogens among non-healthcare workers. Because of the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, we also aimed to gain more evidence about exposure to several respiratory tract pathogens. METHODS: Eligible studies were identified in MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane between 2009 and 8 December 2020. The protocol was registered with International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42019107265). An additional quality assessment was applied according to the Equator network guidelines. RESULTS: The systematic literature search yielded 4620 papers of which 270 met the selection and quality criteria. Infectious disease risks were described in 37 occupational groups; 18 of them were not mentioned before. Armed forces (n=36 pathogens), livestock farm labourers (n=31), livestock/dairy producers (n=26), abattoir workers (n=22); animal carers and forestry workers (both n=16) seemed to have the highest risk. In total, 111 pathogen exposures were found. Many of these occupational groups (81.1%) were exposed to respiratory tract pathogens. CONCLUSION: Many of these respiratory tract pathogens were readily transmitted where employees congregate (workplace risk factors), while worker risk factors seemed to be of increasing importance. By analysing existing knowledge of these risk factors, identifying new risks and susceptible risk groups, this review aimed to raise awareness of the issue and provide reliable information to establish more effective preventive measures.

Self-Reported Symptoms of COVID-19, Including Symptoms Most Predictive of SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Are Heritable.

Susceptibility to infection such as SARS-CoV-2 may be influenced by host genotype. TwinsUK volunteers (n = 3261) completing the C-19 COVID-19 symptom tracker app allowed classical twin studies of COVID-19 symptoms, including predicted COVID-19, a symptom-based algorithm to predict true infection, derived from app users tested for SARS-CoV-2. We found heritability of 49% (32-64%) for delirium; 34% (20-47%) for diarrhea; 31% (8-52%) for fatigue; 19% (0-38%) for anosmia; 46% (31-60%) for skipped meals and 31% (11-48%) for predicted COVID-19. Heritability estimates were not affected by cohabiting or by social deprivation. The results suggest the importance of host genetics in the risk of clinical manifestations of COVID-19 and provide grounds for planning genome-wide association studies to establish specific genes involved in viral infectivity and the host immune response.

Potential determinants of the decline in mpox cases in Belgium: a behavioral, epidemiological and seroprevalence study.

OBJECTIVE: The 2022 mpox epidemic reached a peak in Belgium and the rest of Europe in July 2022, after which it unexpectedly subsided. This study investigates epidemiological, behavioral, and immunological factors behind the waning of the epidemic in Belgium. METHODS: We investigated temporal evolutions in the characteristics and behavior of mpox patients using national surveillance data and data from a prospective registry of mpox patients in the Institute of Tropical Medicine (Antwerp). We studied behavioral changes in the population at risk using a survey among HIV-pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users. We determined the seroprevalence of anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies among HIV-PrEP users across four time points in 2022. RESULTS: Mpox patients diagnosed at the end of the epidemic had less sexual risk behavior compared to those diagnosed earlier: they engaged less in sex at mass events, had fewer sexual partners and were less likely to belong to the sexual network's central group. Among HIV-PrEP users there were no notable changes in sexual behavior. Anti-orthopoxvirus seroprevalence did not notably increase before the start of national vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: The observed changes in group immunity and behavior in the population at greater risk of exposure to mpox seem unable to explain the waning of the mpox epidemic. A change in the profile of mpox patients might have contributed to the decline in cases.

Genomic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants using sentinel SARI hospital surveillance.

Background: To support the COVID-19 pandemic response, many countries, including Belgium, implemented baseline genomic surveillance (BGS) programs aiming to early detect and characterize new SARS-CoV-2 variants. In parallel, Belgium maintained a sentinel network of six hospitals that samples patients with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and integrated SARS-CoV-2 detection within a broader range of respiratory pathogens. We evaluate the ability of the SARI surveillance to monitor general trends and early signals of viral genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and compare it with the BGS as a reference model. Methods: Nine-hundred twenty-five SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from patients fulfilling the Belgian SARI definition between January 2020 and December 2022 were sequenced using the ARTIC Network amplicon tiling approach on a MinION platform. Weekly variant of concern (VOC) proportions and types were compared to those that were circulating between 2021 and 2022, using 96,251 sequences of the BGS. Results: SARI surveillance allowed timely detection of the Omicron (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5) and Delta (B.1.617.2) VOCs, with no to 2 weeks delay according to the start of their epidemic growth in the Belgian population. First detection of VOCs B.1.351 and P.1 took longer, but these remained minor in Belgium. Omicron BA.3 was never detected in SARI surveillance. Timeliness could not be evaluated for B.1.1.7, being already major at the start of the study period. Conclusions: Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 using SARI sentinel surveillance has proven to accurately reflect VOCs detected in the population and provides a cost-effective solution for long-term genomic monitoring of circulating respiratory viruses.

Immune Trait Shifts in Association With Tobacco Smoking: A Study in Healthy Women.

Tobacco smoking is known to impact circulating levels of major immune cells populations, but its effect on specific immune cell subsets remains poorly understood. Here, using high-resolution data from 223 healthy women (25 current and 198 never smokers), we investigated the association between smoking status and 35,651 immune traits capturing immune cell subset frequencies. Our results confirmed that active tobacco smoking is associated with increased frequencies of circulating CD8+ T cells expressing the CD25 activation marker. Moreover, we identified novel associations between smoking status and relative abundances of CD8+ CD25+ memory T cells, CD8+ memory T cells expressing the CCR4 chemokine receptor, and CD4+CD8+ (double-positive) CD25+ T cells. We also observed, in current smokers, a decrease in the relative frequencies of CD4+ T cells expressing the CD38 activation marker and an increase in class-switched memory B cell isotypes IgA, IgG, and IgE. Finally, using data from 135 former female smokers, we showed that the relative frequencies of immune traits associated with active smoking are usually completely restored after smoking cessation, with the exception of subsets of CD8+ and CD8+ memory T cells, which persist partially altered. Our results are consistent with previous findings and provide further evidence on how tobacco smoking shapes leukocyte cell subsets proportion toward chronic inflammation.

Estimates of the rate of infection and asymptomatic COVID-19 disease in a population sample from SE England.

BACKGROUND: Understanding of the true asymptomatic rate of infection of SARS-CoV-2 is currently limited, as is understanding of the population-based seroprevalence after the first wave of COVID-19 within the UK. The majority of data thus far come from hospitalised patients, with little focus on general population cases, or their symptoms. METHODS: We undertook enzyme linked immunosorbent assay characterisation of IgM and IgG responses against SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and nucleocapsid protein of 431 unselected general-population participants of the TwinsUK cohort from South-East England, aged 19-86 (median age 48; 85% female). 382 participants completed prospective logging of 14 COVID-19 related symptoms via the COVID Symptom Study App, allowing consideration of serology alongside individual symptoms, and a predictive algorithm for estimated COVID-19 previously modelled on PCR positive individuals from a dataset of over 2 million. FINDINGS: We demonstrated a seroprevalence of 12% (51 participants of 431). Of 48 seropositive individuals with full symptom data, nine (19%) were fully asymptomatic, and 16 (27%) were asymptomatic for core COVID-19 symptoms: fever, cough or anosmia. Specificity of anosmia for seropositivity was 95%, compared to 88% for fever cough and anosmia combined. 34 individuals in the cohort were predicted to be Covid-19 positive using the App algorithm, and of those, 18 (52%) were seropositive. INTERPRETATION: Seroprevalence amongst adults from London and South-East England was 12%, and 19% of seropositive individuals with prospective symptom logging were fully asymptomatic throughout the study. Anosmia demonstrated the highest symptom specificity for SARS-CoV-2 antibody response. FUNDING: NIHR BRC, CDRF, ZOE global LTD, RST-UKRI/MRC.

High prevalence of epilepsy in an onchocerciasis endemic health zone in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, despite 14 years of community-directed treatment with ivermectin: A mixed-method assessment.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the reasons for the high prevalence of epilepsy (>6%) discovered in 2015 in the Aketi health zone in the north of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. METHODS: Persons with epilepsy (PWE) diagnosed in a door-to-door survey in 2015 were traced and re-examined in 2017 by a neurologist. Confirmed PWE were paired with matched controls. For onchocerciasis assessment, children 7-10 years old were tested for IgG4 Onchocerca volvulus (OV16) antibodies, a rapid epidemiological mapping of onchocerciasis (REMO) study was performed, and ivermectin coverage was investigated. RESULTS: Forty-three (61.4%) previously diagnosed PWE were traced; the neurologist confirmed the epilepsy diagnosis in all of them. The overall OV16 positivity rate was 64.5%. Poor ivermectin coverage (55.9%) and a high prevalence of onchocercal nodules (>70%) were observed. The prevalence of epilepsy was 5.7% in Aketi rural town, with nine PWE (13.8%) experiencing head nodding seizures. A case-control study showed that PWE had lower body weight and higher ivermectin coverage in 2017 than healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of epilepsy in the Aketi health zone, despite 14 years of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), was found to be associated with high onchocerciasis transmission and low ivermectin use. An awareness programme to increase ivermectin coverage and the introduction of a bi-annual CDTI programme should be considered.