Morphologic patterns observed in prostate biopsy cases with discrepant grade group and molecular risk classification.

BACKGROUND: Molecular-based risk classifier tests are increasingly being utilized by urologists and radiation oncologists to guide clinical decision making. The Decipher prostate biopsy test is a 22-gene RNA biomarker assay designed to predict likelihood of high-grade disease at radical prostatectomy and risk of metastasis and mortality. The test provides a risk category of low, intermediate, or high. We investigated histologic features of biopsies in which the Grade Group (GG) and Decipher risk category (molecular risk) were discrepant. METHODS: Our institutional urologic outcomes database was searched for men who underwent prostate biopsies with subsequent Decipher testing from 2016 to 2020. We defined discrepant GG and molecular risk as either GG1-2 with high Decipher risk category or GG ≥ 3 with low Decipher risk category. The biopsy slide on which Decipher testing was performed was re-reviewed for GG and various histologic features, including % Gleason pattern 4, types of Gleason pattern 4 and 5, other "high risk" features (e.g., complex papillary, ductal carcinoma, intraductal carcinoma [IDC]), and other unusual and often "difficult to grade" patterns (e.g., atrophic carcinoma, mucin rupture, pseudohyperplastic carcinoma, collagenous fibroplasia, foamy gland carcinoma, carcinoma with basal cell marker expression, carcinoma with prominent vacuoles, and stromal reaction). Follow-up data was also obtained from the electronic medical record. RESULTS: Of 178 men who underwent prostate biopsies and had Decipher testing performed, 41 (23%) had discrepant GG and molecular risk. Slides were available for review for 33/41 (80%). Of these 33 patients, 23 (70%) had GG1-2 (GG1 n = 5, GG2 n = 18) with high Decipher risk, and 10 (30%) had GG ≥ 3 with low Decipher risk. Of the 5 GG1 cases, one case was considered GG2 on re-review; no other high risk features were identified but each case showed at least one of the following "difficult to grade" patterns: 3 atrophic carcinoma, 1 collagenous fibroplasia, 1 carcinoma with mucin rupture, and 1 carcinoma with basal cell marker expression. Of the 18 GG2 high Decipher risk cases, 2 showed GG3 on re-review, 5 showed large cribriform and/or other high risk features, and 10 showed a "difficult to grade" pattern. Of the 10 GG ≥ 3 low Decipher risk cases, 5 had known high risk features including 2 with large cribriform, 1 with IDC, and 1 with Gleason pattern 5. CONCLUSIONS: In GG1-2 high Decipher risk cases, difficult to grade patterns were frequently seen in the absence of other known high risk morphologic features; whether these constitute true high risk cases requires further study. In the GG ≥ 3 low Decipher risk cases, aggressive histologic patterns such as large cribriform and IDC were observed in half (50%) of cases; therefore, the molecular classifier may not capture all high risk histologic patterns.

The impact of genomic biomarkers on a clinical risk prediction model for upgrading/upstaging among men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: The challenge of distinguishing indolent from aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) complicates decision-making for men considering active surveillance (AS). Genomic classifiers (GCs) may improve risk stratification by predicting end points such as upgrading or upstaging (UG/US). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of GCs on UG/US risk prediction in a clinicopathologic model. METHODS: Participants had favorable-risk PCa (cT1-2, prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≤15 ng/mL, and Gleason grade group 1 [GG1]/low-volume GG2). A prediction model was developed for 864 men at the University of California, San Francisco, with standard clinical variables (cohort 1), and the model was validated for 2267 participants from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry (cohort 2). Logistic regression was used to compute the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to develop a prediction model for UG/US at prostatectomy. A GC (Oncotype Dx Genomic Prostate Score [GPS] or Prolaris) was then assessed to improve risk prediction. RESULTS: The prediction model included biopsy GG1 versus GG2 (odds ratio [OR], 5.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.73-9.10); PSA (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.20; per 1 ng/mL), percent positive cores (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02; per 1%), prostate volume (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99; per mL), and age (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07; per year), with AUC 0.70 (cohort 1) and AUC 0.69 (cohort 2). GPS was associated with UG/US (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; p < .01) and AUC 0.72, which indicates a comparable performance to the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: GCs did not substantially improve a clinical prediction model for UG/US, a short-term and imperfect surrogate for clinically relevant disease outcomes.

Large cribriform glands (> 0.25 mm diameter) as a predictor of adverse pathology in men with Grade Group 2 prostate cancer.

AIMS: A recent outcome-based, radical prostatectomy study defined > 0.25 mm diameter to distinguish large versus small cribriform glands, with > 0.25 mm associated with worse recurrence-free survival. This study evaluates whether identification of > 0.25 mm cribriform glands in Grade Group 2 patients at biopsy is associated with adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Tumours containing biopsy slides for 133 patients with Grade Group 2 prostate cancer with subsequent radical prostatectomy were re-reviewed for large cribriform glands (diameter > 0.25 mm). The primary outcome was adverse pathology (Grade Groups 3-5; stage pT3a or greater, or pN1). The secondary outcome was recurrence-free survival. Cribriform pattern was present in 52 of 133 (39%) patients; of these, 16 of 52 (31%) had large cribriform glands and 36 of 52 (69%) had only small cribriform glands. Patients with large cribriform glands had significantly more adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy compared to patients with small cribriform glands and no cribriform glands (large = 11 of 16, 69%; small = 12 of 36, 33%; no cribriform = 25 of 81, 31%; χ2 P-value 0.01). On multivariate analysis, large cribriform glands were also associated with adverse pathology, independent of age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA)/PSA density at diagnosis, year of diagnosis and biopsy cores percentage positive (global P-value 0.02). Large cribriform glands were also associated with increased CAPRA-S surgical risk score (Kruskal-Wallis P-value 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Large cribriform glands using a diameter > 0.25 mm definition in Grade Group 2 patients on biopsy are associated with increased risk of adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. The presence of large cribriform histology should be considered when offering active surveillance for those with Grade Group 2 disease.

PSA density does not improve predictive accuracy of the UCSF-CAPRA score.

INTRODUCTION: The University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score is a validated tool using factors at diagnosis to predict prostate cancer outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP). This study evaluates whether substitution of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density for serum PSA improves predictive performance of the clinical CAPRA model. METHODS: Participants were diagnosed in 2000-2019 with stage T1/T2 cancer, underwent RP, with at least a 6-month follow-up. We computed standard CAPRA score using diagnostic age, Gleason grade, percent positive cores, clinical T stage, and serum PSA, and an alternate score using similar variables but substituting PSA density for PSA. We reported CAPRA categories as low (0-2), intermediate (3-5), and high (6-10) risk. Recurrence was defined as two consecutive PSA ≥ 0.2 ng/mL or receipt of salvage treatment. Life table and Kaplan-Meier analysis evaluated recurrence-free survival after prostatectomy. Cox proportional hazards regression models tested associations of standard or alternate CAPRA variables with recurrence risk. Additional models tested associations between standard or alternate CAPRA score with recurrence risk. Cox log-likelihood ratio test (-2 LOG L) assessed model accuracy. RESULTS: A total of 2880 patients had median age 62 years, GG1 30% and GG2 31%, median PSA 6.5, and median PSA density 0.19. Median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. Alternate CAPRA model was associated with shifts in risk scores, with 16% of patients increasing and 7% decreasing (p < 0.01). Recurrence-free survival after RP was 75% at 5 years and 62% at 10 years. Both CAPRA component models were associated with recurrence risk after RP on Cox regression. Covariate fit statistics showed better fit for standard CAPRA model versus alternate (p < 0.01). Standard (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.61) and alternate (HR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.44-1.55) CAPRA scores were associated with recurrence risk, with better fit for standard model (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In a 2880 patient cohort followed for median 45 months after RP, alternate CAPRA model using PSA density was associated with higher biochemical recurrence (BCR) risk, but performed inferior to standard CAPRA at predicting BCR. While PSA density is an established prognostic variable in prediagnostic settings and sub-stratifying low-risk disease, it does not improve BCR model predictive accuracy when applied across a range of cancer risk.

Post-diagnostic health behaviour scores and risk of prostate cancer progression and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Individual behaviours are associated with prostate cancer (PC) progression. Behavioural scores, comprised of multiple risk factors, allow assessment of the combined impact of multiple behaviours. METHODS: We examined the association between six a priori scores and risk of PC progression and mortality among 2156 men with PC in the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) cohort: two scores developed based on the PC survivorship literature ('2021 Score [+ Diet]'); a score developed based on pre-diagnostic PC literature ('2015 Score'); and three scores based on US recommendations for cancer prevention ('WCRF/AICR Score') and survival ('ACS Score [+ Alcohol]'). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for progression and PC mortality via parametric survival models (interval censoring) and Cox models, respectively. RESULTS: Over a median (IQR) of 6.4 (1.3, 13.7) years, we observed 192 progression and 73 PC mortality events. Higher (i.e., healthier) 2021 Score + Diet and WCRF/AICR Scores were inversely associated with risk of PC progression (2021 + Diet: HRcontinuous = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63-0.90. WCRF/AICR: HRcontinuous = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.67-1.02) and mortality (2021 + Diet: HRcontinuous = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.93. WCRF/AICR: HRcontinuous = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.57-0.89). The ACS Score + Alcohol was only associated with progression (HRcontinuous = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81-0.98) while the 2021 Score was only associated with PC mortality (HRcontinuous = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.45-0.85). The 2015 was not associated with PC progression or mortality. CONCLUSION: Findings strengthen the evidence that behavioural modifications following a prostate cancer diagnosis may improve clinical outcomes.

Gleason Grade 1 Prostate Cancer Volume at Biopsy Is Associated With Upgrading but Not Adverse Pathology or Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy: Results From a Large Institutional Cohort.

PURPOSE: Clinical guidelines suggest that for low-grade, clinically localized prostate cancer, patients with higher volume of disease at diagnosis may benefit from definitive therapy, although the data remain unclear. Our objective was to determine associations between low-grade prostate cancer volume and outcomes in men managed with primary radical prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Men with cT1-2N0/xM0/x prostate cancer, prostate specific antigen at diagnosis <10 ng/mL, and Gleason grade group 1 pathology on diagnostic biopsy managed with primary radical prostatectomy were included. Outcomes were pathological upgrade at radical prostatectomy (≥Gleason grade group 2), University of California, San Francisco adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (≥Gleason grade group 3, pT3/4, or pN1), alternate adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (≥Gleason grade group 3, ≥pT3b, or pN1), and recurrence (biochemical failure with 2 prostate specific antigen ≥0.2 ng/mL or salvage treatment). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between percentage of positive cores and risk of upgrade and adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate associations between percentage of positive cores and hazard of recurrence after radical prostatectomy. RESULTS: A total of 1,029 men met inclusion criteria. Multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated significant associations between percentage of positive cores and pathological upgrade (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.1-1.57, P < .01), but not University of California, San Francisco adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (P = .84); percentage of positive cores was negatively associated with alternate adverse pathology (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.48-0.93, P = .02). Multivariable Cox regression models demonstrated no association between percentage of positive cores and hazard of recurrence after radical prostatectomy (P = .11). CONCLUSIONS: In men with Gleason grade group 1 prostate cancer, tumor volume may be associated with upgrading at radical prostatectomy, but not more clinically significant outcomes of adverse pathology or recurrence.

Stability of Prognostic Estimation Using the CAPRA Score Incorporating Imaging-based vs Physical Exam-based Staging.

PURPOSE: Although official T-staging criteria for prostate cancer are based on digital rectal examination findings, providers increasingly rely on transrectal US and MRI to define pragmatic clinical stage to guide management. We assessed the impact of incorporating imaging findings into T-staging on performance of a well-validated prognostic instrument. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2019 with stage ≤cT3a on both digital rectal examination and imaging (transrectal US/MRI) were included. The University of California, San Francisco CAPRA (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment) score was computed 2 ways: (1) incorporating digital rectal examination-based T stage and (2) incorporating imaging-based T stage. We assessed for risk changes across the 2 methods and associations of CAPRA (by both methods) with biochemical recurrence, using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Model discrimination and net benefit were assessed with time-dependent area under the curve and decision curve analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Of 2,222 men included, 377 (17%) increased in CAPRA score with imaging-based staging (P < .01). Digital rectal examination-based (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.48-1.61) and imaging-based (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.46-1.58) CAPRA scores were comparably accurate for predicting recurrence with similar discrimination and decision curve analyses. On multivariable Cox regression, positive digital rectal examination at diagnosis (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.09-1.53) and imaging-based clinical T3/4 disease (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.43-2.07) were independently associated with biochemical recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The CAPRA score remains accurate whether determined using imaging-based staging or digital rectal examination-based staging, with relatively minor discrepancies and similar associations with biochemical recurrence. Staging information from either modality can be used in the CAPRA score calculation and still reliably predict risk of biochemical recurrence.

Androgen Deprivation Therapy and the Risk of Dementia after Treatment for Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: The association between androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and dementia in men with prostate cancer remains inconclusive. We assessed the association between cumulative ADT exposure and the onset of dementia in a nationwide longitudinal registry of men with prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of men aged ≥50 years from the CaPSURE (Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor) registry was performed. The primary outcome was onset of dementia after primary treatment. ADT exposure was expressed as a time-varying independent variable of total ADT exposure. The probability of receiving ADT was estimated using a propensity score. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to determine the association between ADT exposure and dementia with competing risk of death, adjusted for propensity score and clinical covariates among men receiving various treatments. RESULTS: Of 13,570 men 317 (2.3%) were diagnosed with dementia after a median of 7.0 years (IQR 3.0-12.0) of followup. Cumulative ADT use was significantly associated with dementia (HR 2.02; 95% CI 1.40-2.91; p <0.01) after adjustment. In a subset of 8,506 men, where propensity score matched by whether or not they received ADT, there was also an association between ADT use and dementia (HR 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.44; p=0.04). There was no association between primary treatment type and onset of dementia in the 8,489 men in the cohort who did not receive ADT. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative ADT exposure was associated with dementia. This increased risk should be accompanied by a careful discussion of the needs and benefits of ADT in those being considered for treatment.

The Natural History of Untreated Biopsy Grade Group Progression and Delayed Definitive Treatment for Men on Active Surveillance for Early-Stage Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: For men with clinically localized prostate cancer outcomes of continuing active surveillance (AS) after biopsy progression are not well understood. We aim to determine the impact of continuing AS and delayed definitive treatment after biopsy progression on oncologic outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants in our prospective AS cohort (1990-2018) diagnosed with grade group (GG) 1, localized prostate cancer, with prostate specific antigen <20 who were subsequently upgraded to ≥GG2, and underwent further surveillance (biopsy/imaging/prostate specific antigen) were identified. Patients were stratified by post-progression followup into 3 groups: continue AS untreated, pursue early radical prostatectomy (RP) ≤6 months, or undergo late RP within 6 months to 5 years of progression. Patients receiving other treatments were excluded. We compared characteristics between groups and examined the associations of early vs late RP with risk of adverse pathology (AP) at RP and recurrence-free survival (RFS) after RP. RESULTS: Of 531 patients with biopsy progression and further surveillance 214 (40%) remained untreated, 192 (36%) pursued early RP and 125 (24%) underwent late RP. Among patients who underwent early vs late RP, there was no difference in GG (p=0.15) or AP (55% vs 53%, p=0.74) rate at RP, or 3-year RFS (80% vs 87%, log-rank p=0.64) after RP. In multivariable models, only Cancer of Prostate Risk Assessment post-surgical score was associated with risk of RFS (HR=1.42 per point, 95% CI 1.24-1.64). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients continuing AS after biopsy progression, 60% underwent surgery within 5 years. Delayed surgery after progression was not associated with higher risk of AP or RFS. This suggests select patients may be able to safely delay treatment after progression.

Emulation of a target trial with sustained treatment strategies: an application to prostate cancer using both inverse probability weighting and the g-formula.

As with many chronic illnesses, recurrent prostate cancer generally requires sustained treatment to prolong survival. However, initiating treatment immediately after recurrence may negatively impact quality of life without any survival gains. Therefore, we consider sustained strategies for initiating treatment based on specific characteristics of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), which can indicate disease progression. We define the protocol for a target trial comparing treatment strategies based on PSA doubling time, in which androgen deprivation therapy is initiated only after doubling time decreases below a certain threshold. Such a treatment strategy means the timing of treatment initiation (if ever) is not known at baseline, and the target trial protocol must explicitly specify the frequency of PSA monitoring until the threshold is met, as well as the duration of treatment. We describe these and other components of a target trial that need to be specified in order for such a trial to be emulated in observational data. We then use the parametric g-formula and inverse-probability weighted dynamic marginal structural models to emulate our target trial in a cohort of prostate cancer patients from clinics across the United States.

Natural history of an immediately detectable PSA following radical prostatectomy in a contemporary cohort.

BACKGROUND: A detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) following radical prostatectomy (RP) is an unfavorable prognostic factor. However, not all men with a detectable PSA experience recurrence. We describe the natural history and outcomes in men with a detectable PSA following RP in a contemporary cohort. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of men who underwent RP for non-metastatic prostate cancer at the University of California, San Francisco from 2000 to 2020 was performed. A detectable PSA was defined as PSA ≥ 0.03 ng/ml within 6 months of RP. Cox regression models tested the effect of detectable PSA on the development of metastasis, prostate cancer-specific mortality, and overall survival. RESULTS: We identified 2941 men who had RP with 408 (13.9%) with a detectable PSA within the first 6 months. The median follow-up was 4.42 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.58-8.00). In total, 296 (72.5%) men with a detectable PSA had salvage treatment at a median of 6 months (IQR, 4-11). One hundred sixteen of these men had PSA failure after salvage treatment at a median of 2.0 years (IQR, 0.7-3.8). On multivariable Cox regression, the risk of development of metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.09; p = .01), prostate cancer-specific mortality (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.05-1.21; p = .0005), and overall mortality (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12; p = .002) was associated with PSA velocity after salvage treatment in men with a detectable PSA. CONCLUSIONS: Men with a detectable PSA after RP may have excellent long-term outcomes. PSA velocity after salvage treatment may be an important predictor for the development of metastasis, prostate cancer-specific mortality, and overall mortality.

Influence of pelvic lymph node dissection and node-positive disease on biochemical recurrence, secondary treatment, and survival after radical prostatectomy in men with prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) at radical prostatectomy (RP) remains unclear given the low prevalence of known nodal disease (pN1) and concerns about its therapeutic utility. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the impact of PLND and secondary treatment on oncologic outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study of men who underwent primary RP with PLND for prostate cancer (PCa) at our institution since 2003. Men stratified by nodal status. OUTCOME MEASURES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Outcomes include biochemical recurrence-free survival (bRFS), overall survival, and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariable Cox regression models used for each outcome. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 1,543 men who underwent primary RP, 174 (11%) had pN1 disease. Median follow-up was 34 months (interquartile range, 15-62). Seven-year outcomes were similar whether less than or ≥14 LNs dissected. Among node-positive patients, 29% had undetectable (UDT) prostate-specific antigen (PSA), 11% had UDT PSA + adjuvant therapy, and 60% had detectable PSA, and 7-year bRFS differed (75% for UDT PSA, 90% for UDT + adjuvant therapy, 38% for detectable PSA, p < .01). Survival outcomes did not differ. In multivariable analysis, detectable PSA (vs. UDT, HR 5.2, 95% CI 2.0-13.3) associated with worse bRFS. After salvage treatment, 7-year outcomes did not differ between groups. Study limited by retrospective review.

Post-diagnostic coffee and tea consumption and risk of prostate cancer progression by smoking history.

PURPOSE: Post-diagnostic coffee and tea consumption and prostate cancer progression is understudied. METHODS: We examined 1,557 men from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor who completed a food frequency questionnaire a median of 28 months post-diagnosis. We estimated associations between post-diagnostic coffee (total, caffeinated, decaffeinated) and tea (total, non-herbal, herbal) and risk of prostate cancer progression (recurrence, secondary treatment, bone metastases, or prostate cancer death) using Cox proportional hazards regression. We also examined whether smoking (current, former, never) modified these associations. RESULTS: We observed 167 progression events (median follow-up 9 years). Higher coffee intake was associated with higher risk of progression among current smokers (n = 95). The hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for 5 vs 0 cups/day of coffee was 0.5 (CI 0.2, 1.7) among never smokers, but 4.5 (CI 1.1, 19.4) among current smokers (p-interaction: 0.001). There was no association between total coffee intake and prostate cancer progression among never and former smokers. However, we observed an inverse association between decaffeinated coffee (cups/days) and risk of prostate cancer progression in these men (HR > 0 to < 1 vs 0: 1.1 (CI 0.7, 1.8); HR1 to <2 vs 0: 0.7 (CI 0.3, 1.4); HR≥2 vs 0: 0.6 (CI 0.3, 1.1); p-trend = 0.03). There was no association between tea and prostate cancer progression, overall or by smoking status. CONCLUSION: Among non-smoking men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer, moderate coffee and tea consumption was not associated with risk of cancer progression. However, post-diagnostic coffee intake was associated with increased risk of progression among current smokers.

The Clinical Significance of Multiple Negative Surveillance Prostate Biopsies for Men on Active Surveillance-Does Cancer Vanish or Simply Hide?

PURPOSE: Men with low risk prostate cancer on active surveillance undergo multiple biopsies over time. The long-term clinical significance of consecutively negative biopsies is not known. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Men with low risk prostate cancer prospectively enrolled in an active surveillance database with at least 4 biopsies were included in the study. Exposure variables were 0, 1 or 2 consecutively negative biopsies after diagnosis. Other variables included age, prostate specific antigen, prostate specific antigen density, Gleason grade group, percent positive cores and magnetic resonance imaging findings. Outcome variables were the detection of any cancer at fourth biopsy and active treatment. RESULTS: A total of 514 men were included, with 112 (22%) men having 1 negative biopsy and 78 (15%) with 2 consecutively negative biopsies. Median prostate specific antigen density was lower for men with 1 negative biopsy (0.11) and consecutively negative biopsies (0.10) compared to men who never had a negative biopsy (0.13, p <0.01). On univariable logistic regression higher prostate specific antigen density (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.16-2.45) and suspicious magnetic resonance imaging lesions (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.16-3.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of detecting cancer on fourth biopsy. On multivariable logistic regression 1 negative biopsy (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.12-0.41) and consecutively negative biopsies (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.06-0.24) were associated with a lower likelihood of detecting cancer at outcome biopsy. Unadjusted 10-year treatment-free survival was highest for patients with consecutively negative biopsies (84%) and 1 negative biopsy (74%) than those who had none (66%) (log rank p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Consecutively negative surveillance biopsies are correlated with favorable clinical risk factors and independently associated with subsequent negative biopsy and lower risk of active treatment.

Residual Benign Prostate Glandular Tissue after Radical Prostatectomy is Not Associated with the Development of Detectable Postoperative Serum Prostate Specific Antigen.

PURPOSE: To determine if benign glandular tissue at the surgical margin (BGM) is associated with detectable prostate specific antigen (PSA) and/or biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants underwent RP for localized prostate cancer between 2004 and 2018. Regression analysis was used to identify demographic, clinical and surgical factors associated with the likelihood of BGM presence on surgical pathology. Oncologic outcomes included detectable PSA (>0.03 ng/ml), BCR (≥0.2 ng/ml) and progression to BCR or salvage treatment after detectable PSA. Life tables and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine the association of BGM and risk of oncologic outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1,082 men underwent RP for localized prostate cancer with BGM reported on surgical pathology and an undetectable postoperative PSA. BGM was present on 249 (23%) specimens. Younger age, bilateral nerve sparing surgery and robotic approach were associated with presence of BGM while malignancy at the surgical margin (MSM) was not. At 7 years after RP, 29% experienced detectable PSA and 11% had BCR. In the subgroup of men who reached detectable PSA, 79% had progression within 7 years. On multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, BGM status was not independently associated with detectable PSA, BCR and/or progression from detectable PSA to BCR or salvage treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of BGM at RP was not associated with increased risk of MSM, detectable PSA, BCR or progression after detectable PSA.

Clinical Utility of 4Kscore®, ExosomeDx™ and Magnetic Resonance Imaging for the Early Detection of High Grade Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: We aimed to evaluate 4Kscore® and ExosomeDx™ with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging in the detection of high grade prostate cancer and number of biopsies avoided. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients had 1 liquid biomarker test with or without multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging. High grade prostate cancer was defined as Gleason grade group 2 or greater. The overall number of avoided biopsies (with Gleason grade 1 or less), and number of missed Gleason grade 2 or greater cancer among the biopsied patients, were determined. RESULTS: Of the 783 patients in the overall cohort 419 (53.5%) underwent biopsy. 4Kscore and ExosomeDx scores higher than the manufacturers' cut point were associated with PI-RADS™ scores 3 to 5 and Gleason grade 2 or greater prostate cancer. Limiting biopsy to the men with liquid biomarker scores above the manufacturers' cut point would have resulted avoiding 29.5% to 39.9% unnecessary biopsies overall, while missing 4.0% to 4.8% Gleason grade 2 or greater prostate cancer in the biopsy group. Screening algorithms with up-front liquid biomarker testing followed by multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging if the biomarker is above the manufacturers' cut point, then followed by biopsy if the multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging is positive or if 4Kscore 20 or greater or ExosomeDx 19 or greater would have missed 4.8% to 5.6% of Gleason grade 2 or greater prostate cancer in the biopsy group while avoiding 39.4% to 43.0% biopsies and 29.5% to 39.9% multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging overall. Similar algorithms with up-front multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging followed by liquid biomarker testing for negative multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging would have missed 2.4% of Gleason grade 2 or greater prostate cancer in the biopsy group but only avoided 17.2% 19.3% biopsies overall. CONCLUSIONS: Screening algorithms with up-front liquid biomarker testing followed by multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging and biopsy at certain biomarker thresholds could reduce unnecessary biopsies, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging and overdetection of Gleason grade 1 prostate cancer.

Prostate biopsy histopathologic features correlate with a commercial gene expression assay's reclassification of patient NCCN risk category.

BACKGROUND: For biopsies with Gleason 3 + 3 = 6 or 3 + 4 = 7 prostate cancer, the Genomic Prostate Score (GPS; OncotypeDx) is designed to predict severe pathology at prostatectomy, and, in some cases, recommends reclassification of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk category. We hypothesized that certain histopathologic features that were not considered in the original design of the assay actually would be associated with the NCCN risk category change indicated by GPS testing. METHODS: For patients with recommended NCCN risk category change, the biopsy cores used for GPS were re-reviewed for stromal reaction, chronic inflammation, and tumor nuclear polarization. RESULTS: Of 520 patients from May 2011 to December 2018, GPS testing suggested NCCN risk reclassification in 131 (25%); 127 of these slides were available. Of these, the NCCN risk category increased from intermediate to high in 8, low to intermediate in 15, very low to low in 1, and decreased from intermediate to low in 32, and low to very low in 71. Biopsies with NCCN risk increase were associated with moderate or severe stromal reaction (p < .001) and chronic inflammation (p < .001); biopsies with NCCN risk decrease were associated with absence of these features. In Gleason 3 + 3 = 6 cases (n = 93), presence of nuclear polarization was associated with NCCN risk decrease and its absence with increase (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate or severe stromal reaction, chronic inflammation, and lack of nuclear polarization in Gleason score 3 + 3 = 6 tumors were each associated with an increase in NCCN risk category indicated by GPS and vice versa. Our results suggest that GPS captures histologic features associated with aggressiveness that are not routinely assessed in standard histopathologic assessments, and that consideration of such histologic features may improve upon current tumor grading approaches.

Expansile cribriform Gleason pattern 4 has histopathologic and molecular features of aggressiveness and greater risk of biochemical failure compared to glomerulation Gleason pattern 4.

BACKGROUND: Molecular testing of prostate cancer biopsies with Gleason pattern 4 suggests the expansile cribriform pattern is more aggressive than the glomerulation pattern. These two extreme patterns have not been compared at prostatectomy. We hypothesized that at prostatectomy the expansile cribriform pattern would be associated with histopathologic and molecular features of aggressiveness and with greater risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) than the glomerulation pattern. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, radical prostatectomy reports with expansile cribriform pattern or glomerulation pattern were analyzed for percentage of total pattern 4, extraprostatic extension (EPE), positive lymph nodes, seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), and intraductal carcinoma (IDC). Cases with pattern 5 or with both expansile cribriform and glomerulations patterns present were excluded. The electronic medical record was reviewed for BCR-free survival and for Decipher test results. RESULTS: Of 1020 radical prostatectomies from July 2015 to July 2018, 110 (11%) had either expansile cribriform or glomerulation pattern present. The expansile cribriform group was associated with more histopathologic features of aggressiveness, with higher average total percentage pattern 4 (43.7 vs 27.0, P = .002), a trend of greater extensive EPE (32.7% vs 17.2%, P = .06), a trend toward statistical significance of higher rate of SVI (11.5% vs 3.4%, P = .1), greater positive lymph nodes (9.6% vs 0%, P = .02), and a higher percentage of cases with or suspicious for IDC (23.1% vs 8.6%, P = .04). The risk of BCR was 4.4 (1.3-15.4) fold greater for the expansile cribriform group vs the glomerulations group (P = .02). For the 38 patients who underwent Decipher testing, the expansile cribriform group had a high-risk assay category mean score whereas the glomerulations group had an average risk assay category mean score (0.61 vs 0.47, P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: In a comparison of prostatectomy cases with expansile cribriform pattern to those with glomerulation pattern, the expansile cribriform pattern was associated with more histopathologic features of aggressiveness, greater risk of biochemical failure, and higher scores with a molecular classifier (Decipher) test. These findings underscore the importance of reporting the types of pattern 4 and supports the argument that men with expansile cribriform likely require more aggressive management.

Prostate cancer mortality and metastasis under different biopsy frequencies in North American active surveillance cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) is an accepted means of managing low-risk prostate cancer. Because of the rarity of downstream events, data from existing AS cohorts cannot yet address how differences in surveillance intensity affect metastasis and mortality. This study projected the comparative benefits of different AS schedules in men diagnosed with prostate cancer who had Gleason score (GS) ≤6 disease and risk profiles similar to those in North American AS cohorts. METHODS: Times of GS upgrading were simulated based on AS data from the University of Toronto, Johns Hopkins University, the University of California at San Francisco, and the Canary Pass Active Surveillance Cohort. Times to metastasis and prostate cancer death, informed by models from the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group 4 trial, were projected under biopsy surveillance schedules ranging from watchful waiting to annual biopsies. Outcomes included the risk of metastasis, the risk of death, remaining life-years (LYs), and quality-adjusted LYs. RESULTS: Compared with watchful waiting, AS biopsies reduced the risk of prostate cancer metastasis and prostate cancer death at 20 years by 1.4% to 3.3% and 1.0% to 2.4%, respectively; and 5-year biopsies reduced the risk of metastasis and prostate cancer death by 1.0% to 2.4% and 0.6% to 1.6%, respectively. There was little difference between annual and 5-year biopsy schedules in terms of LYs (range of differences, 0.04-0.16 LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (range of differences, -0.02 to 0.09 quality-adjusted LYs). CONCLUSIONS: Among men diagnosed with GS ≤6 prostate cancer, obtaining a biopsy every 3 or 4 years appears to be an acceptable alternative to more frequent biopsies. Reducing surveillance intensity for those who have a low risk of progression reduces the number of biopsies while preserving the benefit of more frequent schedules.

The Long-Term Risks of Metastases in Men on Active Surveillance for Early Stage Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: We assessd the long-term outcomes from a large prospective cohort of men diagnosed with prostate cancer managed with active surveillance and determined the clinical prognostic factors that may predict the risk of metastases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed data of men enrolled on active surveillance at our institution between 1990 and 2018 with low or intermediate risk disease (stage cT1-2, prostate specific antigen less than 20 ng/ml, and biopsy Grade Group [GG]1-2). Patients were classified into 3 groups by diagnostic GG and prostate specific antigen density. Primary outcome was metastatic prostate cancer detected on imaging or at prostatectomy. In addition, upgrade at surveillance biopsy, active treatment, and overall and prostate cancer specific survival outcomes were assessed. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used. RESULTS: A total of 1,450 men met the inclusion criteria. Median followup was 77 months (IQR 49-114). The 7-year metastasis-free survival rate was 99%. Metastases developed in 15 men at a median of 62 months (IQR 29-104), of which 69% were confined to lymph nodes. Men with GG2 had a lower metastasis-free survival rate compared to those with GG1 disease. GG2, prostate specific antigen velocity and PI-RADS® 4-5 lesions on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging were associated with a higher risk of metastases. The 7-year prostate cancer specific survival was greater than 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Active surveillance seems to preserve favorable long-term prognosis, as metastases and prostate cancer specific death are rare. However, the higher risk of metastases associated with higher Gleason grade, prostate specific antigen velocity, and characteristics on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging should be considered when selecting and counseling patients for active surveillance.