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BACKGROUND AND AIM: Exposure to lead can harm a child's health, including damage to the nervous system, delayed growth, hearing loss, and many other adverse health effects, as well as implications for social, economic, educational and social well-being. Lead exposure in children is still a concern and cases require public health management to find the exposure source and interrupt the exposure pathway. Housing characteristics can indicate the presence of lead-contaminated paint and leaded water supply pipes. We aimed to explore the relationship between housing characteristics and elevated blood lead concentration (BLC) in children in England. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design and included all cases of lead exposure in children reported to the UK Health Security Agency between 2014 and 2020 via surveillance. A case was a child aged under 16 years, resident in England, BLC of ≥ 0.48 µmol/L (10 µg/dL) and referred for public health management. We collected case demographic details and housing characteristics (age and type). We explored associations between elevated BLC and risk factors, using generalised linear mixed effects models and compared cases' housing type to that expected nationally. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-six out of 290 cases met the case definition. There was no difference in BLCs between genders, age groups, deprivation, and housing type. After adjusting for reporting source, housing age and type, cases residing in housing built pre-1976 had a BLC of 0.32 (95%CI 0.02, 0.63) µmols/L (6.63 (95%CI 0.42, 13.0) µg/dL) higher than cases living in housing built after this time. Cases were 1.68 times more likely to be living in terraced housing (housing adjoined to one another) than other children and less likely to live in apartments and detached properties. CONCLUSION: This study suggests an association between housing characteristics and BLC in children. Housing age and type may act as a proxy for lead exposure risk through exposure to leaded paint, lead water pipes, and lead contaminated dust from indoor and outdoor sources. Public health action should consider targeting families more at risk in older housing by raising awareness of the potential presence of lead pipes and paint. Interventions should include working with wider stakeholders including other housing and environmental professionals, the private sector, as well as parents and carers.
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Intoxicación por Plomo , Plomo , Anciano , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Polvo/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Vivienda , Intoxicación por Plomo/epidemiología , Intoxicación por Plomo/etiología , Salud Pública , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological data on UNFR CO poisoning can help monitor changes in the magnitude of this burden, particularly through comparisons of multiple countries, and to identify vulnerable sub-groups of the population which may be more at risk. Here, we collected data on age- and sex- specific number of hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of UNFR CO poisoning in England (2002-2016), aggregated to small areas, alongside area-level characteristics (i.e. deprivation, rurality and ethnicity). We analysed temporal trends using piecewise log-linear models and compared them to analogous data obtained for Canada, France, Spain and the US. We estimated age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants by area-level characteristics using the WHO standard population (2000-2025). We then fitted the Besag York Mollie (BYM) model, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model, to assess the independent effect of each area-level characteristic on the standardized risk of hospitalization. Temporal trends showed significant decreases after 2010. Decreasing trends were also observed across all countries studied, yet France had a 5-fold higher risk. Based on 3399 UNFR CO poisoning hospitalizations, we found an increased risk in areas classified as rural (0.69, 95% CrI: 0.67; 0.80), highly deprived (1.77, 95% CrI: 1.66; 2.10) or with the largest proportion of Asian (1.15, 95% CrI: 1.03; 1.49) or Black population (1.35, 95% CrI: 1.20; 1.80). Our multivariate approach provides strong evidence for the identification of vulnerable populations which can inform prevention policies and targeted interventions.
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Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono , Teorema de Bayes , Canadá , Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono/epidemiología , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Etnicidad , Francia , Hospitalización , Hospitales , Humanos , Factores de Riesgo , EspañaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Children incur lead toxicity even at low blood-lead concentrations (BLCs), and testing in England is opportunistic. We described epidemiology of cases notified to a passive laboratory-based surveillance system (SS), the Lead Poisoning in Children (LPIC) SS to inform opportunities to prevent lead exposure in children in England. METHODS: Surveillance population: children <16 years of age and resident in England during the reporting period September 2014-17. Case definition: children with BLC ≥0.48 µmol/l (10 µg/dl). We extracted case demographic/location data and linked it with laboratory, area-level population and socio-economic status (SES) data. We described case BLCs and calculated age-, gender- and SES-specific notification rates, and age-sex standardised regional notification rates. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017 there were 86 newly notified cases, giving an annual average notification rate of 2.76 per million children aged 0-15 years. Regionally, rates varied from 0.36 to 9.89 per million. Rates were highest in the most deprived quintile (5.38 per million), males (3.75 per million) and children aged 1-4 years (5.89 per million). CONCLUSIONS: Males, children aged 1-4 years, and children in deprived areas may be at higher risk, and could be targeted for primary prevention. Varied regional notification rates suggest differences in clinician awareness of lead exposure and risk factors; guidelines standardising the indications for BLC-testing may assist secondary prevention.
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Plomo , Salud Pública , Niño , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Humanos , Laboratorios , Masculino , Vigilancia de la Población , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
In the United Kingdom, pertussis guidance recommends prophylaxis for household contacts within 21 days of case symptom onset if the household includes a vulnerable contact. The aim of our study was to identify characteristics associated with cases reported late for public health action. We reviewed the epidemiology of cases reported in London and South East England for the period 2010 to 2015. We characterised risk factors associated with late reporting of cases and described public health actions taken on timely reported cases. From 2010 to 2015, 9,163 cases of pertussis were reported to health protection teams. Only 11% of cases were reported within 21 days of onset, limiting opportunities for secondary prevention. Timely reporting was associated with younger age groups, pregnancy, being a healthcare worker and being reported by schools or hospital clinicians. Late reporting was associated with older age groups and general practitioner or laboratory reporting. Delays, such as those due to insidious onset and late presentation to healthcare, may be unavoidable; however, delay in reporting once a patient presents can be reduced since cases can be reported before laboratory confirmation. Thus we recommend working with clinicians and laboratories to determine causes and improve early reporting to public health.
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Notificación de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Salud Pública , Tos Ferina/diagnóstico , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Londres , Masculino , Análisis Multivariante , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Tiempo , Tos Ferina/epidemiología , Tos Ferina/prevención & controlRESUMEN
CONTEXT: Epidemiological preparedness is vital in providing relevant, transparent, and timely intelligence for the management, mitigation, and prevention of public health impacts following major environmental health incidents. A register is a set of records containing systematically collected, standardized data about individual people. Planning for a register of people affected by or exposed to an incident is one of the evolving tools in the public health preparedness and response arsenal. OBJECTIVE: We compared and contrasted the instigation and design of health registers in the epidemiological response to major environmental health incidents in England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States. DESIGN: Consultation with experts from the 5 nations, supplemented with a review of gray and peer-reviewed scientific literature to identify examples where registers have been used. SETTING: Populations affected by or at risk from major environmental health incidents in England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States. METHODS: Nations were compared with respect to the (1) types of major incidents in their remit for considering a register; (2) arrangements for triggering a register; (3) approaches to design of register; (4) arrangements for register implementation; (5) uses of registers; and (6) examples of follow-up studies. RESULTS: Health registers have played a key role in the effective public health response to major environmental incidents, including sudden chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear, as well as natural, more prolonged incidents. Value has been demonstrated in the early and rapid deployment of health registers, enabling the capture of a representative population. CONCLUSION: The decision to establish a health register must ideally be confirmed immediately or soon after the incident using a set of agreed criteria. The establishment of protocols for the instigation, design, and implementation of health registers is recommended as part of preparedness activities. Key stakeholders must be aware of the importance of, and protocols for, establishing a register.Agencies will find value in preparing and implementing registers as part of an effective public health response to major environmental incidents, including sudden chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear incidents, as well as natural, more prolonged incidents.
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Defensa Civil/normas , Atención a la Salud/normas , Planificación en Desastres/normas , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Sistema de Registros/normas , Inglaterra , Francia , Humanos , Italia , Países Bajos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is increasing appreciation of the proportion of the health burden that is attributed to modifiable population exposure to environmental health hazards. To manage this avoidable burden in the United Kingdom (UK), government policies and interventions are implemented. In practice, this procedure is interdisciplinary in action and multi-dimensional in context. Here, we demonstrate how Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate priority setting for environmental public health interventions within local authorities. We combine modelling and expert elicitation to gather evidence on the impacts and ranking of interventions. METHODS: To present the methodology, we consider a hypothetical scenario in a UK city. We use MCDA to evaluate and compare the impact of interventions to reduce the health burden associated with four environmental health hazards and rank them in terms of their overall performance across several criteria. For illustrative purposes, we focus on heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution, remediation to control levels of indoor radon, carbon monoxide and fitting alarms, and encouraging cycling to target the obesogenic environment. Regional data was included as model evidence to construct a ratings matrix for the city. RESULTS: When MCDA is performed with uniform weights, the intervention of heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution is ranked the highest. Cycling and the obesogenic environment is ranked second. CONCLUSIONS: We argue that a MCDA based approach provides a framework to guide environmental public health decision makers. This is demonstrated through an online interactive MCDA tool. We conclude that MCDA is a transparent tool that can be used to compare the impact of alternative interventions on a set of pre-defined criteria. In our illustrative example, we ranked the best intervention across the equally weighted selected criteria out of the four alternatives. Further work is needed to test the tool with decision makers and stakeholders.
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Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Salud Ambiental , Indicadores de Salud , Salud Pública , Ciudades , Humanos , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Accidental non-fire-related (ANFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a cause of fatalities and hospital admissions. This is the first study that describes the characteristics of ANFR CO hospital admissions in England. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) inpatient data for England between 2001 and 2010 were used. ANFR CO poisoning admissions were defined as any mention of ICD-10 code T58: toxic effect of CO and X47: accidental poisoning by gases or vapours, excluding ICD-10 codes potentially related to fires (X00-X09, T20-T32 and Y26). RESULTS: There were 2463 ANFR CO admissions over the 10-year period (annual rate: 0.49/100 000); these comprised just under half (48.7%) of all non-fire-related (accidental and non-accidental) CO admissions. There was seasonal variability, with more admissions in colder winter months. Higher admission rates were observed in the north of England. Just over half (53%) of ANFR admissions were male, and the highest rates of ANFR admissions were in those aged >80 years. CONCLUSION: The burden of ANFR CO poisoning is preventable. The results of this study suggest an appreciable burden of CO and highlight differences that may aid targeting of public health interventions.
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Accidentes Domésticos/estadística & datos numéricos , Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono/epidemiología , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estaciones del Año , Factores Sexuales , Intento de Suicidio/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Lead exposure at any concentration can adversely impact health, with children being more vulnerable to its effects. In England, children with an elevated blood lead concentration (BLC) are reported to Health Protection Teams (HPTs) for public health investigation. A detailed review of these cases has not yet been conducted. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to describe the demographics, likely setting and sources of lead exposure, risk behaviours, public health investigations and outcomes for children aged <16 years with a BLC requiring public health action reported to HPTs between 2014-2022 in England. METHODS: Data were collected via a lookback questionnaire and a live enhanced surveillance questionnaire. Data were deduplicated, cleaned and results summarised as numbers and percentages using R studio. A thematic analysis was conducted on qualitative responses to a question relating to problems experienced during case investigation. RESULTS: There were 340 cases in our study: the majority were aged 1-4 years old (53%) and male (69%). Ethnicity data was poorly recorded. A higher than expected proportion (31%) lived in the most deprived areas. Pica (76%) and learning difficulties (60%) were often present. Cases were primarily exposed to lead in the domestic setting (92%) with paint (43%) and soil (29%) the most common exposures. Most cases lived in rented accommodation (63%), with a higher proportion in social rentals (48%) than privately rented (37%). Case investigations were resource intensive and poor stakeholder engagement/response was most frequently identified as challenging by HPTs. CONCLUSIONS: Lead exposure is harmful to children and requires public health and clinical management, which can be complex and challenging. Prevention of lead exposure in children should be the focus of intervention efforts. Outreach, engagement and preventative work should focus on both renters and homeowners. Collecting ethnicity data consistently may enable identification of more specific groups at increased risk of lead exposure in England.
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Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Intoxicación por Plomo , Plomo , Salud Pública , Humanos , Plomo/sangre , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Preescolar , Masculino , Femenino , Niño , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Lactante , Intoxicación por Plomo/epidemiología , Intoxicación por Plomo/sangre , Adolescente , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Suicide and mental health disorders are a recognized increasing public concern. Most suicide prevention rely on evidence from mortality data, although suicide attempts are a better predictor for completed suicides. Understanding spatio-temporal patterns and demographic profiles of people at risk can improve suicide prevention schemes, including for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, a common method for gas-related suicides. OBJECTIVE: Describe spatio-temporal patterns of intentional CO poisoning hospitalization rates in England between 2002 and 2016, and identify population sub-groups at risk. METHODS: We used NHS Digital's Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) routinely collected data on hospital admissions for intentional CO poisoning. We estimated age-standardised rates (ASR) by year, gender and residential small-area characteristics, including rural/urban, deprivation and ethnic composition. Temporal trends were assessed through linear regression and joinpoint regression analysis. Regional differences were explored. RESULTS: On average, we identified 178 hospital admissions for intentional CO poisoning per year. The ASR decreased substantially over the study period, particularly among males (average annual percent change of -7.8 % (95 % CI: -11.0; -4.6)), in comparison to 3.9 % (95%CI, -6.4; -1.4) among females. Most admissions (81 %) occurred in males. White men aged 35-44 years were particularly at risk. The ASR in London (0.08/100,000) was almost six times lower than in the South-West (0.47/100,000). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel insights into attempted suicides by intentional CO poisoning. Further prevention interventions, targeting sub-groups at risk (i.e. white men in their 30s/40s), need to be developed and implemented to reduce the burden of suicides and of CO poisoning.
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Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono , Intoxicación , Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono/epidemiología , Intento de Suicidio , Factores de Riesgo , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Hospitalización , Intoxicación/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In the Republic of Georgia, a 2018 national survey estimated that more than 40% of children aged 2-7 years had a blood lead concentration (BLC) of more than 5 µg/dL. The objective of this study was to document the feasibility of employing lead isotope ratios (LIRs) to identify and rank the Pb (lead) exposure sources most relevant to children across Georgia. A cross-sectional survey between November 2019 and February 2020 of 36 children previously identified as having BLCs > 5 µg/dL from seven regions of Georgia involved the collection of blood and 528 environmental samples, a questionnaire on behaviours and potential exposures. The LIRs in blood and environmental samples were analysed in individual children and across the whole group to ascertain clustering. A fitted statistical mixed-effect model to LIR data first found that the blood samples clustered with spices, tea, and paint, then, further isotopically distinct from blood were sand, dust, and soil, and lastly, milk, toys, pens, flour, and water. Analysis of the LIRs provided an indication and ranking of the importance of Pb environmental sources as explanatory factors of BLCs across the group of children. The findings support the deployment of interventions aimed at managing the priority sources of exposure in this population.
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Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Plomo , Humanos , Niño , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Georgia , Estudios Transversales , Georgia (República) , Polvo/análisis , Isótopos/análisisRESUMEN
The risk of hospitalisation from bushfire exposure events in Darwin, Australia, is examined. Several local studies have found evidence for the effects of exposure to bushfire particulates on respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. They have characterised the risk of admission from seasonal exposures to biomass air pollution. A new, unanalysed data set presented an additional chance to examine unique exposure effects, as there are no anthropogenic sources of particulates in the vicinity of the exposure monitor. The incidence of daily counts of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diagnoses was calculated with respect to exposures of particulate matter (PM(10)), course particulate matter, fine particulate matter (FPM) and black carbon composition. A Poisson model was used to calculate unadjusted (crude) measures of effect and then adjusted for known risk factors and confounders. The final model adjusted for the effects of minimum temperature, relative humidity, a smoothed spline for seasonal effects, 'date' for a linear effect over time, day of the week and public and school holidays. A subset analysis adjusted for an influenza epidemic in a particular year. The main findings suggest that respiratory admissions were associated with exposure to PM(10) with a lag of 1 day when adjusted for flu and other confounders (RR = 1.025, 95 % CI 1.000-1.051, p < 0.05). This effect is strongest for exposure to FPM concentrations (RR = 1.091, 95 % CI 1.023-1.163, p < 0.01) when adjusted for flu. Respiratory admissions were also associated with black carbon concentrations recorded the previous day (RR = 1.0004, 95 % CI 1.000-1.0008, p < 0.05), which did not change strength when adjusted for flu. Cardiovascular admissions had the strongest association with exposure to same-day PM and highest RR for exposure to FPM when adjusted for confounders (RR = 1.044, 95 % CI 0.989-1.102). Consistent risks were also found with exposure to black carbon with lags of 0-3 days.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Incendios , Material Particulado/toxicidad , Trastornos Respiratorios/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/inducido químicamente , Femenino , Hospitalización , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , Northern Territory/epidemiología , Tamaño de la Partícula , Material Particulado/análisis , Distribución de Poisson , Trastornos Respiratorios/inducido químicamente , Factores de Riesgo , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
The incidence of lead (Pb) poisoning in children in Georgia has been identified as a major health concern, with a recent national survey identifying that 41% of children aged 2-7 years had blood lead concentrations (BLCs) greater than the blood lead reference value (BLRV) of ≥5 µg dL-1. This study collected samples of blood, spices, paint, soil, dust, flour, tea, toys, milk, and water from 36 households in Georgia where a child had previously been identified as having a BLC > BLRV. The Pb concentrations of these samples were determined and compared to Georgian reference values. Samples from 3 households were analysed for their Pb isotope composition. The Pb isotope composition of the environmental and blood samples were compared to identify the most likely source(s) of Pb exposure. This approach identified that some spice and dust samples were the likely sources of Pb in the blood in these cases. Importantly, some soil, paint, and dust sources with high Pb concentrations could be discounted as contributing to blood Pb based on their distinct isotope composition. The data presented demonstrate the significant contribution that Pb surveillance and Pb isotope ratio analyses can make to managing Pb exposure in regions where high BLCs are identified.
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Isótopos , Plomo , Niño , Humanos , Estudios de Factibilidad , Georgia , Isótopos/análisis , Polvo/análisis , SueloRESUMEN
Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning continues to cause fatalities. The narrative verdicts from coroners concerning fatal UNFR CO poisoning in England and Wales, 1998-2019, were collated by the Office for National Statistics. Search terms related to CO exposure were used to obtain information regarding the circumstances of death. Findings were grouped by the location of death, the source of CO, and the reason or behaviour underlying the exposure. There were 750 deaths (77% male). The annual number of deaths decreased over the period studied. Two thirds (68%) of the deaths occurred in the autumn or winter. From the records with information, 59% of deaths occurred within a dwelling (67% male). Males also predominated deaths within vehicles (91%) and garages or outbuildings (95%). From the deaths with information, domestic piped gas was the most common source of CO (36%) and the most frequent underlying factor was inadequate ventilation of exhaust gases (39%, 91% male). Despite the decrease in the annual number of deaths over the study period, there remains a clear need for measures that raise awareness of the dangers of CO poisoning, especially amongst men working alone in garages or outbuildings. Education campaigns and fitting and maintaining CO alarms in high-risk areas should be encouraged.
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Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono , Incendios , Intoxicación por Monóxido de Carbono/epidemiología , Médicos Forenses , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Gales/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In recent years, reports of lead contamination have dramatically increased in Georgia. Given concerns about the exposure of children to lead (Pb), the National Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS-2018) included a blood sampling component. The results showed that 41% of the children that participated had blood Pb levels (BLL) ≥ 5 µg/dL and that BLL in children living in Western Georgia were higher than those in Eastern regions. In response to these findings, NCDC implemented written and verbal advice to the families of children who participated in the MICS-2018 on how to reduce Pb exposure. From August 2019 onwards, the state program of clinical follow-up was implemented. The design of this study was a longitudinal study. The intervention of interest was the public health advice and medical follow-up, and the outcome was defined as the difference in BLL between the MICS-2018 survey and the state program follow-up. We observed a significant overall reduction in median BLL between MICS-2018 and state program follow-up in both August 2019 and the latest results (until December 2019). However, we did not observe any significant further reduction between August and the most recent BLL results. In the Georgian setting, written and verbal communication targeting individual households, alongside home visits to the most exposed, effectively reduced BLL in children.
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Intoxicación por Plomo , Plomo , Niño , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Georgia , Georgia (República) , Humanos , Plomo/análisis , Intoxicación por Plomo/epidemiología , Intoxicación por Plomo/prevención & control , Estudios Longitudinales , Valores de ReferenciaRESUMEN
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RESUMEN
Global environmental change has degraded ecosystems. Challenges such as climate change, resource depletion (with its huge implications for human health and wellbeing), and persistent social inequalities in health have been identified as global public health issues with implications for both communicable and noncommunicable diseases. This contributes to pressure on healthcare systems, as well as societal systems that affect health. A novel strategy to tackle these multiple, interacting and interdependent drivers of change is required to protect the population's health. Public health professionals have found that building strong, enduring interdisciplinary partnerships across disciplines can address environment and health complexities, and that developing Environmental and Public Health Tracking (EPHT) systems has been an effective tool. EPHT aims to merge, integrate, analyse and interpret environmental hazards, exposure and health data. In this article, we explain that public health decision-makers can use EPHT insights to drive public health actions, reduce exposure and prevent the occurrence of disease more precisely in efficient and cost-effective ways. An international network exists for practitioners and researchers to monitor and use environmental health intelligence, and to support countries and local areas toward sustainable and healthy development. A global network of EPHT programs and professionals has the potential to advance global health by implementing and sharing experience, to magnify the impact of local efforts and to pursue data knowledge improvement strategies, aiming to recognise and support best practices. EPHT can help increase the understanding of environmental public health and global health, improve comparability of risks between different areas of the world including Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), enable transparency and trust among citizens, institutions and the private sector, and inform preventive decision making consistent with sustainable and healthy development. This shows how EPHT advances global health efforts by sharing recent global EPHT activities and resources with those working in this field. Experiences from the US, Europe, Asia and Australasia are outlined for operating successful tracking systems to advance global health.
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Salud Ambiental , Salud Global , Salud Pública , Asia , Canadá , Ecosistema , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Vigilancia de la PoblaciónRESUMEN
Approximately one million people in the UK are served by private water supplies (PWS) where main municipal water supply system connection is not practical or where PWS is the preferred option. Chronic exposure to contaminants in PWS may have adverse effects on health. South West England is an area with elevated arsenic concentrations in groundwater and over 9000 domestic dwellings here are supplied by PWS. There remains uncertainty as to the extent of the population exposed to arsenic (As), and the factors predicting such exposure. We describe a hazard assessment model based on simplified geology with the potential to predict exposure to As in PWS. Households with a recorded PWS in Cornwall were recruited to take part in a water sampling programme from 2011 to 2013. Bedrock geologies were aggregated and classified into nine Simplified Bedrock Geological Categories (SBGC), plus a cross-cutting "mineralized" area. PWS were sampled by random selection within SBGCs and some 508 households volunteered for the study. Transformations of the data were explored to estimate the distribution of As concentrations for PWS by SBGC. Using the distribution per SBGC, we predict the proportion of dwellings that would be affected by high concentrations and rank the geologies according to hazard. Within most SBGCs, As concentrations were found to have log-normal distributions. Across these areas, the proportion of dwellings predicted to have drinking water over the prescribed concentration value (PCV) for As ranged from 0% to 20%. From these results, a pilot predictive model was developed calculating the proportion of PWS above the PCV for As and hazard ranking supports local decision making and prioritization. With further development and testing, this can help local authorities predict the number of dwellings that might fail the PCV for As, based on bedrock geology. The model presented here for Cornwall could be applied in areas with similar geologies. Application of the method requires independent validation and further groundwater-derived PWS sampling on other geological formations.