Unpredictable repeatability in molecular evolution.

The extent of parallel evolution at the genotypic level is quantitatively linked to the distribution of beneficial fitness effects (DBFE) of mutations. The standard view, based on light-tailed distributions (i.e., distributions with finite moments), is that the probability of parallel evolution in duplicate populations is inversely proportional to the number of available mutations and, moreover, that the DBFE is sufficient to determine the probability when the number of available mutations is large. Here, we show that when the DBFE is heavy-tailed, as found in several recent experiments, these expectations are defied. The probability of parallel evolution decays anomalously slowly in the number of mutations or even becomes independent of it, implying higher repeatability of evolution. At the same time, the probability of parallel evolution is non-self-averaging-that is, it does not converge to its mean value, even when a large number of mutations are involved. This behavior arises because the evolutionary process is dominated by only a few mutations of high weight. Consequently, the probability varies widely across systems with the same DBFE. Contrary to the standard view, the DBFE is no longer sufficient to determine the extent of parallel evolution, making it much less predictable. We illustrate these ideas theoretically and through analysis of empirical data on antibiotic-resistance evolution.

Stochastic establishment of ß-lactam-resistant Escherichia coli mutants reveals conditions for collective resistance.

For antibiotic resistance to arise, new resistant mutants must establish in a bacterial population before they can spread via natural selection. Comprehending the stochastic factors that influence mutant establishment is crucial for a quantitative understanding of antibiotic resistance emergence. Here, we quantify the single-cell establishment probability of four Escherichia coli strains expressing ß-lactamase alleles with different activity against the antibiotic cefotaxime, as a function of antibiotic concentration in both unstructured (liquid) and structured (agar) environments. We show that concentrations well below the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) can substantially hamper establishment, particularly for highly resistant mutants. While the pattern of establishment suppression is comparable in both tested environments, we find greater variability in establishment probability on agar. Using a simple branching model, we investigate possible sources of this stochasticity, including environment-dependent lineage variability, but cannot reject other possible causes. Lastly, we use the single-cell establishment probability to predict each strain's MIC in the absence of social interactions. We observe substantially higher measured than predicted MIC values, particularly for highly resistant strains, which indicates cooperative effects among resistant cells at large cell numbers, such as in standard MIC assays.

The Fitness of Beta-Lactamase Mutants Depends Nonlinearly on Resistance Level at Sublethal Antibiotic Concentrations.

Adaptive evolutionary processes are constrained by the availability of mutations which cause a fitness benefit and together make up the fitness landscape, which maps genotype space onto fitness under specified conditions. Experimentally derived fitness landscapes have demonstrated a predictability to evolution by identifying limited "mutational routes" that evolution by natural selection may take between low and high-fitness genotypes. However, such studies often utilize indirect measures to determine fitness. We estimated the competitive fitness of mutants relative to all single-mutation neighbors to describe the fitness landscape of three mutations in a ß-lactamase enzyme. Fitness assays were performed at sublethal concentrations of the antibiotic cefotaxime in a structured and unstructured environment. In the unstructured environment, the antibiotic selected for higher-resistance types-but with an equivalent fitness for a subset of mutants, despite substantial variation in resistance-resulting in a stratified fitness landscape. In contrast, in a structured environment with a low antibiotic concentration, antibiotic-susceptible genotypes had a relative fitness advantage, which was associated with antibiotic-induced filamentation. These results cast doubt that highly resistant genotypes have a unique selective advantage in environments with subinhibitory concentrations of antibiotics and demonstrate that direct fitness measures are required for meaningful predictions of the accessibility of evolutionary routes. IMPORTANCE The evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacterial populations underpins the ongoing antibiotic resistance crisis. We aim to understand how antibiotic-degrading enzymes can evolve to cause increased resistance, how this process is constrained, and whether it can be predictable. To this end, competition experiments were performed with a combinatorially complete set of mutants of a ß-lactamase gene subject to subinhibitory concentrations of the antibiotic cefotaxime. While some mutations confer on their hosts high resistance to cefotaxime, in competition these mutations do not always confer a selective advantage. Specifically, high-resistance mutants had equivalent fitnesses despite different resistance levels and even had selective disadvantages under conditions involving spatial structure. Together, our findings suggest that the relationship between resistance level and fitness at subinhibitory concentrations is complex; predicting the evolution of antibiotic resistance requires knowledge of the conditions that select for resistant genotypes and the selective advantage evolved types have over their predecessors.

Antibiotic Breakdown by Susceptible Bacteria Enhances the Establishment of ß-Lactam Resistant Mutants.

For a better understanding of the evolution of antibiotic resistance, it is imperative to study the factors that determine the initial establishment of mutant resistance alleles. In addition to the antibiotic concentration, the establishment of resistance alleles may be affected by interactions with the surrounding susceptible cells from which they derive, for instance via the release of nutrients or removal of the antibiotic. Here, we investigate the effects of social interactions with surrounding susceptible cells on the establishment of Escherichia coli mutants with increasing ß-lactamase activity (i.e., the capacity to hydrolyze ß-lactam antibiotics) from single cells under the exposure of the antibiotic cefotaxime (CTX) on agar plates. We find that relatively susceptible cells, expressing a ß-lactamase with very low antibiotic-hydrolyzing activity, increase the probability of mutant cells to survive and outgrow into colonies due to the active breakdown of the antibiotic. However, the rate of breakdown by the susceptible strain is much higher than expected based on its low enzymatic activity. A detailed theoretical model suggests that this observation may be explained by cell filamentation causing delayed lysis. While susceptible cells may hamper the spread of higher-resistant ß-lactamase mutants at relatively high frequencies, our findings show that they promote their initial establishment.

Predictable properties of fitness landscapes induced by adaptational tradeoffs.

Fitness effects of mutations depend on environmental parameters. For example, mutations that increase fitness of bacteria at high antibiotic concentration often decrease fitness in the absence of antibiotic, exemplifying a tradeoff between adaptation to environmental extremes. We develop a mathematical model for fitness landscapes generated by such tradeoffs, based on experiments that determine the antibiotic dose-response curves of Escherichia coli strains, and previous observations on antibiotic resistance mutations. Our model generates a succession of landscapes with predictable properties as antibiotic concentration is varied. The landscape is nearly smooth at low and high concentrations, but the tradeoff induces a high ruggedness at intermediate antibiotic concentrations. Despite this high ruggedness, however, all the fitness maxima in the landscapes are evolutionarily accessible from the wild type. This implies that selection for antibiotic resistance in multiple mutational steps is relatively facile despite the complexity of the underlying landscape.

Drug resistant bacteria pose a major threat to public health systems all over the world. Darwinian evolution is at the heart of this drug resistance: a mutation that allows bacteria to divide in the presence of a drug appears initially in a single cell. This mutation makes this cell and its descendants more likely to survive, so they can end up taking over the population. The evolution of resistance can be thought of in terms of 'bacterial fitness landscapes'. These landscapes visualise the relationship between the mutations present in a population of bacteria and how quickly the bacteria divide or reproduce. They are called landscapes because they can be represented as a series of mountains and valleys. The peaks of this landscape represent combinations of mutations that give bacteria the greatest chance of dividing (the greatest fitness). In a landscape with multiple peaks, some peaks will be higher than others. If the landscape is smooth, bacteria can easily acquire mutations for drug resistance. However, in a rugged landscape, bacteria may get stuck at sub-optimal peaks, because the mutations that would enable them to reach a higher peak would first lead them to losing fitness. Several studies on the evolution of antibiotic resistance exist for specific bacteria and specific drugs, but relatively little is known about the general properties of the underlying fitness landscapes. Do these landscapes have features that can help explain the rapid evolution of high levels of resistance? Antibiotic resistance often comes at a cost ­ more resistant strains of bacteria tend to grow more slowly when the drug is absent. To build a model of antibiotic resistance landscapes, Das et al. performed growth experiments on several strains of Escherichia coli exposed to a drug called ciprofloxacin. They measured how the rate at which the bacteria divided changed at different antibiotic concentrations, and combined this with the observation about resistant strains growing slower to formulate a mathematical model of antibiotic resistance landscapes. The landscapes that resulted were found to be very rugged, but unexpectedly, the bacteria could still evolve to access all fitness peaks. This means that landscape ruggedness does not constrain the evolution of resistance. Understanding how and when resistance evolves is important both for the design of new drugs and the development of treatment protocols. A specific prediction of the model is that resistance evolution in fitness landscapes where resistant strains divide more slowly is reversible. This implies that the bacteria could regain their susceptibility to treatment when the drug concentration decreases, but this would depend on the specific bacteria and drug in question. More broadly, the model provides a framework for addressing the evolution of resistance in clinical and environmental settings, where drug concentrations vary widely in time and space.

Universal lower bound on the free-energy cost of molecular measurements.

The living cell uses a variety of molecular receptors to read and process chemical signals that vary in space and time. We model the dynamics of such molecular level measurements as Markov processes in steady state, with a coupling between the receptor and the signal. We prove exactly that, when the signal dynamics is not perturbed by the receptors, the free energy consumed by the measurement process is lower bounded by a quantity proportional to the mutual information. Our result is completely independent of the receptor architecture and dependent on signal properties alone, and therefore holds as a general principle for molecular information processing.

Numerical test of hydrodynamic fluctuation theory in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chain.

Recent work has developed a nonlinear hydrodynamic fluctuation theory for a chain of coupled anharmonic oscillators governing the conserved fields, namely, stretch, momentum, and energy. The linear theory yields two propagating sound modes and one diffusing heat mode, all three with diffusive broadening. In contrast, the nonlinear theory predicts that, at long times, the sound mode correlations satisfy Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the heat mode correlations have Lévy-walk scaling. In the present contribution we report on molecular dynamics simulations of Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chains to compute various spatiotemporal correlation functions and compare them with the predictions of the theory. We obtain very good agreement in many cases, but also some deviations.

Effect of hydrodynamic interaction on polymeric tethers.

Weak bonds are ubiquitous in biological structures. They often act as adhesive contacts within an extended structure, for example, the internal bonds in a folded protein or a DNA/RNA loop. They also act as linkers between two structures, for example, a protein grafted in a cell membrane or a protein linking the cell membranes of two neighboring cells. Typically, the breakage of a bond depends on the strength of the binding potential and viscosity of the medium. But when extended structures couple to the bond, as in the above examples, the dynamics of the structure also has to be considered in order to understand the bond breakage phenomenon. Here we consider a generic model, a stretched polymer (an extended structure) tethered to a soft bond and study how the dynamics of the polymer, in addition to thermal noise, influences bond breakage. We also explore how the hydrodynamic interaction due to the fluid medium, which couples the distant parts of the polymer, change the bond breakage rate. We find that hydrodynamic interaction enhances the breakage rate and also makes the motion of the unstable collective mode of the polymer more coherent.