Breast cancer risk feedback to women in the UK NHS breast screening population.

INTRODUCTION: There are widespread moves to develop risk-stratified approaches to population-based breast screening. The public needs to favour receiving breast cancer risk information, which ideally should produce no detrimental effects. This study investigates risk perception, the proportion wishing to know their 10-year risk and whether subsequent screening attendance is affected. METHODS: Fifty thousand women attending the NHS Breast Screening Programme completed a risk assessment questionnaire. Ten-year breast cancer risks were estimated using a validated algorithm (Tyrer-Cuzick) adjusted for visually assessed mammographic density. Women at high risk (⩾8%) and low risk (<1%) were invited for face-to-face or telephone risk feedback and counselling. RESULTS: Of those invited to receive risk feedback, more high-risk women, 500 out of 673 (74.3%), opted to receive a consultation than low-risk women, 106 out of 193 (54.9%) (P<0.001). Women at high risk were significantly more likely to perceive their risk as high (P<0.001) and to attend their subsequent mammogram (94.4%) compared with low-risk women (84.2%; P=0.04) and all attendees (84.3%; ⩽0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Population-based assessment of breast cancer risk is feasible. The majority of women wished to receive risk information. Perception of general population breast cancer risk is poor. There were no apparent adverse effects on screening attendance for high-risk women whose subsequent screening attendance was increased.

Breast cancer risk assessment in 8,824 women attending a family history evaluation and screening programme.

Accurate individualized breast cancer risk assessment is essential to provide risk-benefit analysis prior to initiating interventions designed to lower breast cancer risk and start surveillance. We have previously shown that a manual adaptation of Claus tables was as accurate as the Tyrer-Cuzick model and more accurate at predicting breast cancer than the Gail, Claus model and Ford models. Here we reassess the manual model with longer follow up and higher numbers of cancers. Calibration of the manual model was assessed using data from 8,824 women attending the family history evaluation and screening programme in Manchester UK, with a mean follow up of 9.71 years. After exclusion of 40 prevalent cancers, 406 incident breast cancers occurred, and 385.1 were predicted (O/E = 1.05, 95 % CI 0.95-1.16) using the manual model. Predictions were close to that of observed cancers in all risk categories and in all age groups, including women in their forties (O/E = 0.99, 95 % CI 0.83-1.16). Manual risk prediction with use of adjusted Claus tables and curves with modest adjustment for hormonal and reproductive factors was a well-calibrated approach to breast cancer risk estimation in a UK family history clinic.

Breast cancer risk in young women in the national breast screening programme: implications for applying NICE guidelines for additional screening and chemoprevention.

In the United Kingdom, women at moderate and high risk of breast cancer between the ages of 40 and 49 years are eligible for annual mammographic screening and preventive therapy with tamoxifen. Here, we estimate the numbers of women in a population eligible for this service and the proportion of breast cancers detected in this group compared with the whole population. Women <50 attending for mammographic screening in the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) completed a risk questionnaire. The proportion at moderate and high risk according to National Institute of Health Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines was estimated. An estimate was also made using a different model of risk estimation (Tyrer-Cuzick). The numbers of cancers detected in the moderate/high risk groups were compared with numbers detected in the whole population. Completed questionnaires were available for 4,360 women between ages 46 and 49 years. Thirty women [0.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.5-1.0%] were at high risk and 130 (3.0%, 2.5-3.5%) were at moderate risk according to NICE guidelines. Thirty-seven cancers were detected by mammography in the whole group. Five of these were found in the moderate-/high-risk group giving a 3.2-fold increase in detection compared with the standard risk group. More women were assigned to the moderate- or high-risk group using the Tyrer-Cuzick model (N = 384), but the numbers of cancers in this group were not appreciably increased (N = 8). Systematic assessment of family history in primary care or through population-based screening will identify appreciable numbers of women in their forties, eligible for additional surveillance and chemoprevention.