The effect of the medico-legal evaluation on asylum seekers in the Metropolitan City of Milan, Italy: a pilot study.

In the present-day situation, the clinical forensic documentation of an asylum seeker's narrative and his or her examination, together with the physical and psychological findings, may have very important effects on the outcome of the request for political asylum. Since 2012, the Municipality of Milan, the University Institute of Legal Medicine, and other institutions have assembled a team with the task of examining vulnerable asylum seekers and preparing a medical report for the Territorial Commission for International Protection (Prefecture, Ministry of Interiors), who will assess the application. We compared medico-legal reports and outcomes of 57 cases which were evaluated by the Commission after having undergone a medico-legal evaluation through the Istanbul Protocol criteria and examined, in particular, which medico-legal variables seem associated to the outcome. The results show that forensic assessment seems to have a significant and interesting correlation with the final assessment given by the Commission. For example, the higher the level of consistency, according to the Istanbul Protocol, the more frequently protection is granted. These data show how important clinical forensic medicine can be in such scenarios and how the presence of clinical forensic experts should be encouraged in such evaluations, as has been recently enshrined in Italy in the guidelines of a Ministerial Decree of April 3rd, 2017 for the assistance and the rehabilitation as well as the treatment of psychiatric disorders in refugees and asylum seekers who have undergone torture, rape, and other severe forms of psychological, physical, or sexual violence.

New treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV): scope for preventing liver disease and HCV transmission in England.

New direct-acting antivirals have the potential to transform the hepatitis C (HCV) treatment landscape, with rates of sustained viral response in excess of 90%. As these new agents are expensive, an important question is whether to focus on minimizing the consequences of severe liver disease, or reducing transmission via 'treatment as prevention'. A back-calculation model was used to estimate the impact of treatment of mild, moderate and compensated cirrhosis on incident cases of HCV-related end-stage liver disease/hepatocellular carcinoma (ESLD/HCC). In addition, a dynamic model was used to determine the impact on incidence and prevalence of chronic infection in people who inject drugs (PWID), the main risk group in England. Treating 3500 cirrhotics per year was predicted to reduce ESLD/HCC incidence from 1100 (95% CrI 970-1240) cases per year in 2015 to 630 (95% CrI 530-770) in 2020, around half that currently expected, although treating moderate-stage disease will also be needed to sustain this reduction. Treating mild-stage PWID was required to make a substantial impact on transmission: with 2500 treated per year, chronic prevalence/annual incidence in PWID was reduced from 34%/4.8% in 2015 to 11%/1.4% in 2030. There was little overlap between the two goals: treating mild stage had virtually no impact on ESLD/HCC within 15 years, but the long timescale of liver disease means relatively few PWID reach cirrhosis before cessation of injecting. Strategies focussing on treating advanced disease have the potential for dramatic reductions in severe morbidity, but virtually no preventative impact.

Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland.

Mandibular third molar displaced in the sublingual space: clinical management and medicolegal considerations.

This paper describes the management of a failed mandibular third molar extraction, resulting in tooth displacement in the sublingual space, the discussion of the diagnosis, surgery and medico-legal considerations. A 28-year-old male patient underwent an unsuccessful attempt of the 4.8 tooth extraction. The clinician lost visual contact after luxation and the patient was not recalled for post-operative follow-up. After 24 hours, a severe trismus started. Ortopantomography and cone beam computer tomography revealed the displacement in the sublingual space. The tooth was removed under general anaesthesia with intraoral approach. The follow-up was uneventful and the paraesthetic area on the tongue did not enlarge after the retrieval. The displaced mandibular third molar is a rare but potentially serious complication of extraction. This event should be avoided with correct diagnosis and surgical technique. Cone beam computed tomography was useful to determine the three-dimensional position of the displaced tooth.

Skeletal idiopathic osteosclerosis helps to perform personal identification of unknown decedents: A novel contribution from anatomical variants through CT scan.

Personal identification consists of the comparison of ante-mortem information from a missing person with post-mortem data obtained from an unidentified corpse. Such procedure is based on the assessment of individualizing features which may help in providing a conclusive identification between ante-mortem and post-mortem material. Anatomical variants may provide important clues to correctly identify human remains. Areas of idiopathic osteosclerosis (IO), or dense bone islands (DBIs) characterized by radiopaque areas of dense, trabeculated, non-inflamed vital bone represent one of these, potentially individualizing, anatomical features. This study presents a case where the finding of DBI was crucial for a positive identification through CT-scan. A decomposed body was found in an apartment in June 2014 in advanced decomposition and no dental records were available to perform a comparison for positive identification. Genetic tests were not applicable because of the lack of relatives in a direct line. The analysis of the only ante-mortem documentation, a CT-scan to the deceased dating back to August 2009, showed the presence of three DBIs within the trabecular bone of the proximal portion of the right femur. The same bony district was removed from the corpse during the autopsy and analysed by CT-scan, which verified the presence of the same features. Forensic practitioners should therefore be aware of the great importance of anatomical bone variants, such as dense bone islands for identification purposes, and the importance of advanced radiological technique for addressing the individualizing potential of such variants. We propose that anatomical variants of the human skeleton should be considered as being "primary identification characteristics" similar to dental status, fingerprints and DNA.

HCV treatment rates and sustained viral response among people who inject drugs in seven UK sites: real world results and modelling of treatment impact.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antiviral treatment for people who inject drugs (PWID) could prevent onwards transmission and reduce chronic prevalence. We assessed current PWID treatment rates in seven UK settings and projected the potential impact of current and scaled-up treatment on HCV chronic prevalence. Data on number of PWID treated and sustained viral response rates (SVR) were collected from seven UK settings: Bristol (37-48% HCV chronic prevalence among PWID), East London (37-48%), Manchester (48-56%), Nottingham (37-44%), Plymouth (30-37%), Dundee (20-27%) and North Wales (27-33%). A model of HCV transmission among PWID projected the 10-year impact of (i) current treatment rates and SVR (ii) scale-up with interferon-free direct acting antivirals (IFN-free DAAs) with 90% SVR. Treatment rates varied from <5 to over 25 per 1000 PWID. Pooled intention-to-treat SVR for PWID were 45% genotypes 1/4 [95%CI 33-57%] and 61% genotypes 2/3 [95%CI 47-76%]. Projections of chronic HCV prevalence among PWID after 10 years of current levels of treatment overlapped substantially with current HCV prevalence estimates. Scaling-up treatment to 26/1000 PWID annually (achieved already in two sites) with IFN-free DAAs could achieve an observable absolute reduction in HCV chronic prevalence of at least 15% among PWID in all sites and greater than a halving in chronic HCV in Plymouth, Dundee and North Wales within a decade. Current treatment rates among PWID are unlikely to achieve observable reductions in HCV chronic prevalence over the next 10 years. Achievable scale-up, however, could lead to substantial reductions in HCV chronic prevalence.

Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

Incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women in England: two methods of estimation.

Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates 'recalibrated' to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16-24 and 16-44 years for 2001-2005 using all these data were 0·05 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·035-0·071] and 0·021 (95% CrI 0·015-0·028), respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesize, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates.

Two decades of successes and failures in controlling the transmission of HIV through injecting drug use in England and Wales, 1990 to 2011.

Responses to injecting drug use have changed focus over the last 20 years. Prevalence and incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among people who inject drugs (PWID) in England and Wales were examined in relation to these changes. A voluntary unlinked-anonymous surveillance study obtained a biological sample and questionnaire data from PWID through annual surveys since 1990. Prevalence and incidence trends were estimated via generalised linear models, and compared with a policy time-line. Overall HIV prevalence among 38,539 participations was 1.15%. Prevalence was highest among those who started injecting before 1985; throughout the 1990s, prevalence fell in this group and was stable among those who started injecting later. Prevalence was higher in 2005 than 2000 (odds ratio: 3.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40­9.03) in London, 3.40 (95% CI 2.31­5.02) elsewhere). Estimated HIV incidence peaked twice, around 1983 and 2005. HIV was an important focus of policy concerning PWID from 1984 until 1998. This focus shifted at a time when drug use and risk were changing. The increased incidence in 2005 cannot be ascribed to the policy changes, but these appeared to be temporally aligned. Policy related to PWID should be continually reviewed to ensure rapid responses to increased risk.

Extreme ultraviolet transient gratings: A tool for nanoscale photoacoustics.

Collective lattice dynamics determine essential aspects of condensed matter, such as elastic and thermal properties. These exhibit strong dependence on the length-scale, reflecting the marked wavevector dependence of lattice excitations. The extreme ultraviolet transient grating (EUV TG) approach has demonstrated the potential of accessing a wavevector range corresponding to the 10s of nm length-scale, representing a spatial scale of the highest relevance for fundamental physics and forefront technology, previously inaccessible by optical TG and other inelastic scattering methods. In this manuscript we report on the capabilities of this technique in the context of probing thermoelastic properties of matter, both in the bulk and at the surface, as well as discussing future developments and practical considerations.

Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men.

Understanding infectious disease dynamics and the effect on prevalence and incidence is crucial for public health policies. Disease incidence and prevalence are typically not observed directly and increasingly are estimated through the synthesis of indirect information from multiple data sources. We demonstrate how an evidence synthesis approach to the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in England and Wales can be extended to infer the underlying HIV incidence. Diverse time series of data can be used to obtain yearly "snapshots" (with associated uncertainty) of the proportion of the population in 4 compartments: not at risk, susceptible, HIV positive but undiagnosed, and diagnosed HIV positive. A multistate model for the infection and diagnosis processes is then formulated by expressing the changes in these proportions by a system of differential equations. By parameterizing incidence in terms of prevalence and contact rates, HIV transmission is further modeled. Use of additional data or prior information on demographics, risk behavior change and contact parameters allows simultaneous estimation of the transition rates, compartment prevalences, contact rates, and transmission probabilities.

Reliability of Schmeling's stages of ossification of medial clavicular epiphyses and its validity to assess 18 years of age in living subjects.

Nowadays, due to the global increase in migration movements, forensic age estimation of living young adults has become an important focus of interest. Minors often have no identification documents providing their correct birth dates. Establishing the age of majority is therefore fundamental in order to determine whether juvenile penal systems or penal systems in force for adults are to be applied. Radiological examination of the clavicles is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics. In this retrospective study, a sample of chest radiographs of 274 subjects, aged between 12 and 25 years, was studied according to Schmeling's method in order to examine the ossification of both medial clavicular epiphyses. All stage classifications were evaluated by five examiners. Intra- and inter-examiner reliability was analysed by Cohen's K statistic. Intra-examiner agreement was insufficient for two of the experts. Inter-examiner agreement, among the other three operators, was moderate (K = 0.509). Study of reliability highlighted difficulties in interpretation, the need to select qualified personnel and choice of the best radiographic image in order to reduce any anatomic overlaps. Although ossification of the medial clavicular epiphyses is recommended to assess whether an individual has already reached the age of majority or not, these results suggested that it is very difficult to clearly identify the five stages of ossification by using conventional chest radiography.

Spatial mapping of hepatitis C prevalence in recent injecting drug users in contact with services.

In developed countries the majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections occur in injecting drug users (IDUs) with prevalence in IDUs often high, but with wide geographical differences within countries. Estimates of local prevalence are needed for planning services for IDUs, but it is not practical to conduct HCV seroprevalence surveys in all areas. In this study survey data from IDUs attending specialist services were collected in 52/149 sites in England between 2006 and 2008. Spatially correlated random-effects models were used to estimate HCV prevalence for all sites, using auxiliary data to aid prediction. Estimates ranged from 14% to 82%, with larger cities, London and the North West having the highest HCV prevalence. The methods used generated robust estimates for each area, with a well-identified spatial pattern that improved predictions. Such models may be of use in other areas of study where surveillance data are sparse.

Premature mortality in Scottish injecting drug users: a life-history approach.

In Scotland, deaths in drug users are known to be higher than in the rest of the UK and most of Europe. Reducing drug-related deaths is currently a national priority for the Scottish Government.  This study aimed to present a description of the life histories of a group of injecting drug users who have recently died, with a view to highlighting areas for further research. The Edinburgh Addiction Cohort study recently carried out 432 follow-up interviews between the years 2005 and 2007. Thirty-three cases who completed this extensive interview detailing early life, education, employment, drug use, opiate substitution treatment, criminal history, mental health problems and overdose have subsequently died, leaving this source of rich information about their lives. The design of the interview used the life grid approach. Information was also compiled from full primary care records and General Register Office death certificates. Early life adversity was apparent for many cases, with a steady progression into early criminal behaviour and drug misuse. Poor adult life outcomes illustrated the lifelong damaging effects of drug injecting. Death occurred significantly earlier than in the general population or those living in deprived communities who did not use drugs. In conclusion, a clearer understanding of the life histories of problem drug users would be advantageous for health-care professionals and policy-makers. More qualitative research studies are needed to highlight areas which might require early intervention and also complement the existing secondary data studies.

Palatal rugae as an individualising marker: reliability for forensic odontology and personal identification.

Personal identification is based on the comparison between ante mortem and post mortem data which can be considered unique for each individual: palatal rugae represent a useful element for such a comparison, thanks to their apparent low variability with time and unique patterns. Literature however is scarce. This pilot study aims at assessing the reliability of palatal rugae in time and at developing an identification method based on their comparison. Two casts from the upper dental arch of 39 subjects were obtained in different periods of time; at their first cast, 85.2% of patients were less than 16 years old. The second cast was performed after a period of time which varied between 4 and 65 months later than the first cast. The first cast can be taken to simulate ante mortem information, the second post mortem information. Every cast was then digitised with a scanner. In the digital images the palatal rugae were highlighted by using Adobe® Photoshop® 7.0 software; each image was coded and a comparison between "simulated" ante mortem and post mortem data was performed. In all cases ante mortem and post mortem data from the same individual were correctly matched. The study seems to indicate that this technique is highly reliable and user friendly, even on subadults, where growth processes seem not to affect the specific morphology of palatal rugae.

Oral manifestation of cleido cranial displasia.

Cleidocranial dysplasia (CCD) is a congenital hereditary condition caused by a dominant autosomal mutation. The orthodontic management of CCD patients is often complicated by the manifestations associated with the condition. The aim of this study was to evaluate the oral manifestations of patients suffering from CCD. The subjects underwent a thorough clinical evaluation that examined both hard and soft tissue. The subjects also underwent an X-ray examination in order to isolate possible anomalies in the stomach region related to the condition. Case 1 presented with a bilateral cross-bite, retention of deciduous teeth, presence of supernumerary teeth and agenesis. Case 2 presented with bilateral cross-bite, retention of deciduous teeth, and the presence of supernumerary teeth. The individuals in this study represent a broad range of typical CCD manifestations and confirm the close correlation between the mutation at CBFA1 level and the presence or oral-dental alterations. An early diagnosis of CCD is essential and based on clinical manifestations, x-ray evidence and genetic tests. Diagnosing the condition can be difficult in cases where there are no evident morphological signs; however, in most cases, an alteration in the rhythm of deciduous tooth loss is immediately apparent, making a closer collaboration between dentists and geneticists fundamental in achieving early diagnosis. As stated above, the timing of the treatment is crucial in establishing a correct course of treatment that involves extractions, orthodontic surgery and the use of prosthetics.

Hospitalisation and mortality risk of SARS-COV-2 variant omicron sub-lineage BA.2 compared to BA.1 in England.

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 became the globally dominant variant in early 2022. A sub-lineage of the Omicron variant (BA.2) was identified in England in January 2022. Here, we investigated hospitalisation and mortality risks of COVID-19 cases with the Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 (n = 258,875) compared to BA.1 (n = 984,337) in a large cohort study in England. We estimated the risk of hospital attendance, hospital admission or death using multivariable stratified proportional hazards regression models. After adjustment for confounders, BA.2 cases had lower or similar risks of death (HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.71-0.90), hospital admission (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.94) and any hospital attendance (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.01). These findings that the risk of severe outcomes following infection with BA.2 SARS-CoV-2 was slightly lower or equivalent to the BA.1 sub-lineage can inform public health strategies in countries where BA.2 is spreading.

Estimating time to onset of swine influenza symptoms after initial novel A(H1N1v) viral infection.

Characterization of the incubation time from infection to onset is important for understanding the natural history of infectious diseases. Attempts to estimate the incubation time distribution for novel A(H1N1v) have been, up to now, based on limited data or peculiar samples. We characterized this distribution for a generic group of symptomatic cases using laboratory-confirmed swine influenza case-information. Estimates of the incubation distribution for the pandemic influenza were derived through parametric time-to-event analyses of data on onset of symptoms and exposure dates, accounting for interval censoring. We estimated a mean of about 1·6-1·7 days with a standard deviation of 2 days for the incubation time distribution in those who became symptomatic after infection with the A(H1N1v) virus strain. Separate analyses for the <15 years and ≥ 15 years age groups showed a significant (P<0·02) difference with a longer mean incubation time in the older age group.

The "blind age assessment": applicability of Greulich and Pyle, Demirjian and Mincer aging methods to a population of unknown ethnic origin.

PURPOSE: Age estimation is one of the most crucial issues in case of unknown deceased as well as in the living and is very frequently of radiological interest. Three methods for age estimation have been designated as the most reliable among the others: Greulich and Pyle, Demirjian and Mincer. The literature provides several studies concerning their applicability in different geographic contexts. However, not always can ancestry be ascertained, for example, in the case of badly preserved corpses. In these cases, age assessment must be performed without the corrections suggested by the literature for different ethnic groups. One may therefore wonder how reliable the result of age assessment performed without knowing the racial group to which the subject belongs may be. This study aimed at testing the applicability of the Greulich and Pyle Atlas, the Demirjian and the Mincer methods on a mixed population to compare skeletal and dental methods of age estimation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: X-ray films of 167 subjects aged between 4 and 31 years from more than 18 countries were recruited. One hundred and nine orthopantomographs (OPG) of children aged between 4 and 15.5 years were evaluated by Demirjian's method; whenever the highest Demirjian score was reached (31 cases), the Mincer method was applied. The skeletal maturation of 54 subjects aged between 7 and 19 years was determined by the Greulich and Pyle method. RESULTS: The lowest average variance from chronological age was shown by the Greulich and Pyle method, followed by Demirjian. The Mincer method showed very high mean variances. CONCLUSIONS: Mean variances from the different methods do not significantly differ from data reported in the literature and demonstrate that the reliability of Demirjian, and Greulich and Pyle as they stand may be applied satisfactorily to remains or individuals of unknown ethnic origin.

Multi-state Markov models for disease progression in the presence of informative examination times: an application to hepatitis C.

In many chronic diseases it is important to understand the rate at which patients progress from infection through a series of defined disease states to a clinical outcome, e.g. cirrhosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals or AIDS in HIV-infected individuals. Typically data are obtained from longitudinal studies, which often are observational in nature, and where disease state is observed only at selected examinations throughout follow-up. Transition times between disease states are therefore interval censored. Multi-state Markov models are commonly used to analyze such data, but rely on the assumption that the examination times are non-informative, and hence the examination process is ignorable in a likelihood-based analysis. In this paper we develop a Markov model that relaxes this assumption through the premise that the examination process is ignorable only after conditioning on a more regularly observed auxiliary variable. This situation arises in a study of HCV disease progression, where liver biopsies (the examinations) are sparse, irregular, and potentially informative with respect to the transition times. We use additional information on liver function tests (LFTs), commonly collected throughout follow-up, to inform current disease state and to assume an ignorable examination process. The model developed has a similar structure to a hidden Markov model and accommodates both the series of LFT measurements and the partially latent series of disease states. We show through simulation how this model compares with the commonly used ignorable Markov model, and a Markov model that assumes the examination process is non-ignorable.