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The adoption of diets that minimize both their environmental impacts and weight excess in children would be a major co-benefit for climate change mitigation. We evaluated the relationship between child diet-related environmental impact and anthropometric characteristics in an Italian birth cohort. The study involved 2127 children of the Piccolipiù birth cohort. At 4 years, their diet in the previous two months was assessed through a questionnaire, from which we derived individual: (i) diet-related daily greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), (ii) land use (LU), (iii) adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MD) and (iv) red meat consumption. We related these variables with overweight and obesity, waist circumference, and height at 4 years using regression models adjusted for a priori selected confounders. Diet-related GHGE and LU had a positive weak association with overweight and obesity, with an odds ratio (OR) for the fourth vs. second quartile of 1.30 for both GHGE (95% confidence intervals -CI-: 0.96; 1.77) and LU (95% CI: 0.96-1.76). Both OR estimates increased after adjustment for energy intake. GHGE and LU were not associated with height, with the exception of shorter children in the first quartile. A high vs. low MD adherence was associated with an increase in height Z-score of 0.11 (95% CI 0.01; 0.21). No association was found for red meat consumption. These results suggest that lowering the impact of high environmental impact diets may have, if anything, beneficial effects on child obesity, overweight, and height, with pro-MD patterns playing an important role.
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Dieta , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Preescolar , Italia , Dieta Mediterránea , Desarrollo Infantil , Gases de Efecto Invernadero/análisis , Sobrepeso , Ambiente , Cohorte de NacimientoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: to describe studies that evaluated the screening programmes implemented in the school during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: a systematic literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA 2020 Guidelines. Studies published until December 2021 were included. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed with validated scales. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were carried out by two authors independently. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: teachers and students belonging to schools of all levels, including universities. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: a. transmission-related outcomes (such as the number or proportion of cases, cumulative frequency, incidence); b. feasibility/acceptability of the screening strategies; c. socioeconomic outcomes (such as testing cost, number of days spent in school, quarantine). RESULTS: after having removed duplicate articles, 2,822 records were retrieved. Thirty-six studies were included (15 used an observational design and 21 modelling study). Regarding the former, the methodological quality has been rated as high in 2 studies, intermediate in 6 and low in 2; in the remaining ones, it was not evaluated because only descriptive. Screenings were quite different in terms of school study population, types of tests used, methods of submission and analysis, and level of incidence in the community at the time of implementation. Outcome indicators were also varied, a heterogeneity that, on the one hand, did not allow for meta-analysis of results and, on the other, allowed for testing the performance of the screenings in very different settings. All of the field studies claim that the screenings reduced SARS-CoV-2 exposure and infection among children, adolescents, and college students, curbing at-school transmission and helping to reduce the number of closing school days. Studies that evaluated the cost of the intervention emphasized its cost-effectiveness, while those that focused on the acceptability of the instrument showed a preference among children, adolescents, and parents for minimally invasive, self-administered tests with high sensitivity and lower frequency of repetition. Simulation-based studies are mostly based on compartmental and agent-based models. Their quality is quite high methodologically, although uncertainty quantification and external validation, aimed at verifying the model ability to reproduce observed data, are lacking in many cases. The contexts to which the simulations refer are all school-based, although 7 studies consider residential situations, which are poorly suited to the Italian context. All simulation-based models indicate the importance of planning repeated testing on asymptomatic individuals to limit contagion. However, the costs of these procedures can be high unless assessments are spaced out or pool testing procedures are used. Obtaining high student adherence to the screening programme is extremely important to maximize results. CONCLUSIONS: school-based screenings, especially when combined with other preventive measures, have been important public health tools to contain infections during COVID-19 waves and to ensure children's and adolescents' right to education and to prevent the fallout in physical and mental health (with strong equity consequences) associated with school closures.
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COVID-19 , Adolescente , Niño , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Italia/epidemiología , Pandemias/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Instituciones AcadémicasRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: to estimate the impact of daily exposure to extreme air temperatures (heat and cold) on cause-specific mortality in Italy and to evaluate the differences in the association between urban, suburban and rural municipalities. DESIGN: time series analyses with two-stage approach were applied: in the first stage, multiple Poisson regression models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to define the association between temperature and mortality; in the second one, meta-analytic results were obtained by adopting BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction) coefficients at provincial level, which were then used to estimate the Attributable Fractions of cause-specific deaths. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: cause-specific deaths from 2006to 2015 in Italy have been analysed by region and overall. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 5,648,299 total deaths included. Fractions (and relative 95% empirical confidence interval) of deaths attributable to increases from 75th to 99th percentiles of temperature, for heat, and decreases from 25th to 1st percentile, for cold. RESULTS: the overall impact of air temperature on causespecificmortality is higher for heat than for cold. When considering heat, the attributable fraction is higher for diseases of the central nervous system (3.6% 95% CI 1.9-4.9) and mental health disease (3.1% 95% CI 1.7-4.4), while considering cold, ischemic disease (1.3% 95% CI 1.1-1.6) and diabetes (1.3% 95% CI 0.7-1.8) showed the greater impact. By urbanization level, similar impacts were found for cold temperature, while for heat there was an indication of higher vulnerability in rural areas emerged. CONCLUSIONS: results are relevant for the implementation and promotion of preventive measures according to climate change related increase in temperature. The available evidence can provide the basis to identify vulnerable areas and population subgroups to which address current and future heat and cold adaptation plans in Italy.
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Frío , Calor , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Temperatura , Ciudades , MortalidadRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on total and cause-specific mortality in people residing and dead in the Municipality of Rome (Italy) in 2020, and to describe the causes of death of subjects with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by molecular test. DESIGN: descriptive analysis of total and cause-specific mortality in 2020 in Rome and comparison with a reference period (2015-2018 for total mortality and 2018 for cause-specific mortality); descriptive analysis of cause-specific mortality in the cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 27,471 deaths registered in the Lazio mortality-cause Registry, relating to people residing and died in the municipality of Rome in 2020, 2,374 of which died from COVID-19.MAIN OUCOME MEASURES: all-cause mortality by month, gender, age group and place of death, cause-specific mortality (ICD-10 codes). RESULTS: in the municipality of Rome in 2020, an excess of mortality from all causes equal to +10% was observed, with a greater increase in the months of October-December (+27%, +56%, and +26%, respectively) in people aged 50+, with the greatest contribution from the oldest age groups (80+) who died in the nursing homes or at home. Lower mortality was observed in the age groups 0-29 years (-30%) and 40-49 years (-13%). In 2020, COVID-19 represents the fourth cause of death in Rome after malignant tumours, diseases of the circulatory system, and respiratory diseases. Excess mortality was observed from stroke and pneumonia (both in men and women), from respiratory diseases (in men), from diabetes, mental disorders, dementia and Parkinson's disease (in women). On the contrary, mortality is lower for all cancers, for diseases of the blood and haematopoietic organs and for the causes of the circulatory system. The follow-up analysis of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects residing in Rome shows that a share of deaths (about 20%) reports other causes of death such as cardiovascular diseases, malignant tumours, and diseases of the respiratory system on the certificate collected by the Italian National Statistics Institute. CONCLUSIONS: the 2020 mortality study highlighted excesses for acute and chronic pathologies, indicative of possible delays in the diagnosis or treatment of conditions indirectly caused by the pandemic, but also a share of misclassification of the cause of death that is recognized as COVID-19 death.
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COVID-19 , Adolescente , Adulto , Causas de Muerte , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Roma/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the impact of school closures, as a measure to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, on the psychological well-being of students of all levels starting from the 2020-2021 school year. DESIGN: a systematic literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA 2020 Guidelines. The literature search was conducted on 4 different databases: MedLine, Embase, PsycINFO, and L.OVE Platform. Quantitative observational studies published until 10.01.2022 were included. Studies conducted during the first pandemic wave, i.e., during the 2019-2020 school year and/or during the mandatory lockdown or confinement period, were excluded. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed with validated scales. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were carried out independently by two authors. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: children, adolescents, and young people attending all levels of education (including universities) and, for reasons related to COVID-19, having a suspension of "in presence" school or attending classes remotely. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: a. outcomes directly related to mental health: suicides, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations for psychiatric problems; anxiety and depression, emotional difficulties, feelings of loneliness and isolation; b. well-being outcomes: sleep quality, perceived well-being (by child/adolescent/youth or referred by parents); c. health-related behaviours: tobacco smoking, alcohol, drug use. Outcomes related to school/academic performance, physical health, and those related to parents were not considered. RESULTS: after having removed duplicate articles, 2,830 records were retrieved with the bibliographic search. Twelve studies (2 uncontrolled before-after studies and 10 cross sectional surveys) were included, involving a total of 27,787 participants. Three studies involved university students, 2 involved high school students, and the remaining involved a mixed population of students attending primary and middle schools. The studies were conducted between September 2020 and April 2021. The methodological quality was rated as high in five studies and intermediate in the remaining studies. Due to the high heterogeneity of outcome measures and statistical analyses performed among the included studies, it was not possible to conduct a meta-analysis of the results of the considered publications. Nevertheless, the present review showed a clear signal of increase in mental health problems in relation to school closure or virtual instruction. In particular, results suggest evidence of association between school closure and risk of suicidal attempts or thoughts, mental health symptoms such as anxiety, depression, emotional disorders, psychological stress. Sleeping problems, drug and alcohol addiction were poorly studied. CONCLUSIONS: despite the limitations of the included studies and possible residual confounding and contamination due to restrictive measures and social isolation implemented during the pandemic, the available evidence confirms the negative impact on students' mental health associated with school closures and distance learning. Given the availability of vaccination also for young children, a long period of school closure should be avoided also in the case of the emergence of new pandemic waves.
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COVID-19 , Suicidio , Niño , Adolescente , Humanos , Preescolar , Salud Mental , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , SARS-CoV-2 , Italia , Conductas Relacionadas con la SaludRESUMEN
Introduction There is evidence of improvement on mental health and well-being due to contact with green spaces, through various mechanisms and with potentially differential impacts in different populations. Many of these studies have been conducted among adults, while children have not been sufficiently investigated. This study aimed to evaluate the association between residential exposure to greenness and cognitive development at age 7 and to evaluate nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a potential mediator of this association.Methods This longitudinal study was based on a cohort of newborns enrolled at delivery in two large obstetric hospitals in Rome. We assessed cognitive development at 7 years of age through the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III edition (WISC-III). We estimated residential surrounding greenness, using satellite derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), within 300m and 500m buffers around each residential address at birth. We applied weighted multiple linear regression analyses to study the association between NDVI and the WISC-III cognitive scores, using the inverse probability weighting methodology to correct for potential selection bias. We performed a mediation analysis to evaluate the mediating role of NO2 in the association under study.Results We enrolled 719 children at birth and performed our analyses only on 465 children with data on exposure and outcome. The results were not consistent for the average residential surrounding greenness in 300m buffer. For an IQR increase in greenness within 500m buffer around home addresses at birth we found a progress in Arithmetic subtest (ß:0.39; 90% CI: 0.11-0.6), a test concerning with attention, concentration and numerical reasoning, apart from an indication of the positive association with Full scale IQ and Verbal IQ. This association was partly mediated by reduction in NO2, since adding this pollutant in our model explained 35% (90% CI: 7%-62%) of our estimate.Conclusions Our findings showed an association between residential surrounding greenness within 500m and better scores on attention tests at 7 years of age. The observed association between Arithmetic subtest and NDVI was mediated, in part, by a reduction in NO2. This topic has important public health implications in supporting green urban planning policies and promoting children's well-being.
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Contaminación del Aire , Dióxido de Nitrógeno , Adulto , Niño , Cognición , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Estudios Longitudinales , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/toxicidad , Parques Recreativos , Embarazo , Ciudad de RomaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review to evaluate the association between residential or occupational short- and long-term exposure to odour pollution from industrial sources and the health status of the exposed population. METHODS: The searches were conducted in Medline, EMBASE and Scopus in April 2021. Exposure to an environmental odour from industrial sources in population resident near the source or in workers was considered. We considered outcomes for which there was a biological plausibility, such as wheezing and asthma, cough, headache, nausea and vomiting (primary outcomes). We also included stress-related symptoms and novel outcomes (e.g. mood states). Risk of bias was evaluated using the OHAT tool. For primary outcomes, when at least 3 studies provided effect estimates by comparing exposed subjects versus not exposed, we pooled the study-specific estimates of odour-related effect using random effects models. Heterogeneity was evaluated with Higgins I2. RESULTS: Thirty studies were eligible for this review, mainly cross-sectional (n = 23). Only one study involved school-age children and two studies involved workers. Only five studies reported odour effects on objective laboratory or clinical outcomes. Animal Feeding Operations and waste were the most common industrial sources. The overall odds ratios in exposed versus not exposed population were 1.15 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.29) for headache (7 studies), 1.09 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.30) for nausea/vomiting (7 studies), and 1.27 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.44) for cough/phlegm (5 studies). Heterogeneity was a moderate concern. Overall, the body of evidence was affected by a definitely high risk of bias in exposure and outcome assessment since most studies used self-reported information. CONCLUSIONS: Findings underline the public health importance of odour pollution for population living nearby industrial odour sources. The limited evidence for most outcomes supports the need for high quality epidemiological studies on the association between odour pollution and its effects on human health.
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Contaminación del Aire , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Exposición Profesional , Odorantes , Animales , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , IndustriasRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: to perform a meta-analysis of cohort studies on lung cancer mortality in occupational sectors exposed to asbestos, particularly in the construction sector, and to use data from Italian cohorts exposed to asbestos to estimate the number of lung cancer cases attributable to asbestos in Italy. METHODS: systematic literature review and estimation of lung cancer deaths and cases attributable to asbestos in Italian cohorts and from the Italian National Register of Malignant Mesothelioma (ReNaM). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the literature search was conducted in Medline and Embase (Ovid), including papers published from 1999 to May 2019. The following sectors were considered most exposed to asbestos: asbestos-cement, rolling-stock, shipyards, dockyards, glass workers, insulators, asphalt roll production workers, industrial ovens, miners. Moreover, the construction sector was included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was estimated from the meta-analysis of the literature review. The ratio lung cancer to mesothelioma attributable cases was estimated by occupational sector from the Italian cohorts. For the construction sector, the ratio lung cancer to mesothelioma cases was estimated within the exposed workers estimated by CAREX (1990-1993). The ratios were applied to the mesothelioma cases registered at the ReNaM for the 2010-2015 period, to obtain a national estimate of lung cancer cases attributable to occupational exposure to asbestos. RESULTS: the meta-analytical SMR for lung cancer in men varied between 1.05 (asphalt roll) and 2.36 (insulation). The mean risk for all sectors was 1.37 in men and 1.60 in women. It increased in cohorts with latency higher than 20 years. Significant risks were observed in asbestos-cement (both genders), construction, and mining sectors. There was a mean of 1.1, 2.7, and 2.8 lung cancer deaths per mesothelioma death in the cement-asbestos, harbour, and construction sectors, respectively. The impact in terms of lung cancer cases estimated at the national level was equal to 3,814 cases between 2010 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: to provide an overall assessment of the impact of the occupational asbestos exposure, it is important to consider lung cancer cases, in addition to malignant mesotheliomas. This study was able to estimate the impact of asbestos on lung cancer in Italy 25 years after the ban of this occupational carcinogen, with the largest contribution in terms of attributable cases coming from the construction sector. It is urgent to implement adequate information and prevention strategies, health surveillance of workers, and the appropriate legal framework for insurance purposes.
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Amianto , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Mesotelioma , Enfermedades Profesionales , Exposición Profesional , Neoplasias Pleurales , Amianto/toxicidad , Femenino , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Mesotelioma/etiología , Enfermedades Profesionales/epidemiología , Exposición Profesional/efectos adversos , Neoplasias Pleurales/epidemiología , Neoplasias Pleurales/etiologíaRESUMEN
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.
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BACKGROUND: Standardized mortality surveillance data, capable of detecting variations in total mortality at population level and not only among the infected, provide an unbiased insight into the impact of epidemics, like COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease). We analysed the temporal trend in total excess mortality and deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 by geographical area (north and centre-south), age and sex, taking into account the deficit in mortality in previous months. METHODS: Data from the Italian rapid mortality surveillance system was used to quantify excess deaths during the epidemic, to estimate the mortality deficit during the previous months and to compare total excess mortality with deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2. Data were stratified by geographical area (north vs centre and south), age and sex. RESULTS: COVID-19 had a greater impact in northern Italian cities among subjects aged 75-84 and 85+ years. COVID-19 deaths accounted for half of total excess mortality in both areas, with differences by age: almost all excess deaths were from COVID-19 among adults, while among the elderly only one third of the excess was coded as COVID-19. When taking into account the mortality deficit in the pre-pandemic period, different trends were observed by area: all excess mortality during COVID-19 was explained by deficit mortality in the centre and south, while only a 16% overlap was estimated in northern cities, with quotas decreasing by age, from 67% in the 15-64 years old to 1% only among subjects 85+ years old. CONCLUSIONS: An underestimation of COVID-19 deaths is particularly evident among the elderly. When quantifying the burden in mortality related to COVID-19, it is important to consider seasonal dynamics in mortality. Surveillance data provides an impartial indicator for monitoring the following phases of the epidemic, and may help in the evaluation of mitigation measures adopted.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19 , Ciudades/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Data from the rapid mortality surveillance system in 19 major Italian cities were used to carry out a timely assessment of the health impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. By 18 April, a +â¯45% excess in mortality was observed, with a higher impact in the north of the country (+â¯76%). The excess was greatest among men, with an increasing trend by age. Surveillance data can be used to evaluate the lockdown and re-opening phases.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Coronavirus , Mortalidad/tendencias , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Vigilancia de la Población , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Brotes de Enfermedades , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Femenino , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , SARS-CoV-2 , Distribución por SexoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: to assess the temporal variation in excess total mortality and the portion of excess explained by COVID-19 deaths by geographical area, gender, and age during the COVID-19 epidemic. DESIGN: descriptive analysis of temporal variations of total excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths in the phase 1 and phase 2 of the epidemic in Italy. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 12 Northern cities and 20 Central-Southern cities from December 2019 to June 2020: daily mortality from the National Surveillance System of Daily Mortality (SiSMG) and COVID-19 deaths from the integrated COVID-19 surveillance system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: total mortality excess and COVID-19 deaths, defined as deaths in microbiologically confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2, by gender and age groups. RESULTS: the largest excess mortality was observed in the North and during the first phase of the epidemic. The portion of excess mortality explained by COVID-19 decreases with age, decreasing to 51% among the very old (>=85 years). In phase 2 (until June 2020), the impact was more contained and totally attributable to COVID-19 deaths and this suggests an effectiveness of social distancing measures. CONCLUSIONS: mortality surveillance is a sensible information basis for the monitoring of health impact of the different phases of the epidemic and supporting decision making at the local and national level on containment measures to put in place in coming months.
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COVID-19/epidemiología , Mortalidad/tendencias , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/prevención & control , Causas de Muerte , Femenino , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Vigilancia de la Población , Cuarentena , Factores de Tiempo , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In Europe, it is estimated that one third of women had experienced at least one physical or sexual violence after their 15. Taking into account the severe health consequences, the Emergency Department (ED), may offer an opportunity to recognize when an aggression is part of the spectrum of violence. This study applies Social Network analysis (SNA) to ED data in the Lazio region with the objective to identify patterns of diagnoses, within all the ED accesses of women experiencing an aggression, that are signals for gender-based violence against women. We aim to develop a risk assessment tool for ED professionals in order to strength their ability to manage victims of violence. METHODS: A cohort of 124,691 women aged 15-70 with an ED visit for aggression between 2003 and 2015 was selected and, for each woman, the ED history of diagnoses and traumas was reconstructed. SNA was applied on all these diagnoses and traumas, including also 9 specific violence diagnoses. SNA community detection algorithms and network centrality measures were used to detect diagnostic patterns more strongly associated to violence. A logistic model was developed to validate the capability of these patterns to predict the odds for a woman of having an history of violence. Model results were summed up into a risk chart. RESULTS: Among women experiencing an aggression, SNA identified four communities representing specific violence-related patterns of diagnoses. Diagnoses having a central role in the violence network were alcohol or substance abuse, pregnancy-related conditions and psychoses. These high-risk violence related patterns accounted for at most 20% of our cohort. The logistic model had good predictive accuracy and predictive power confirming that diagnosis patterns identified through the SNA are meaningful in the violence recognition. CONCLUSIONS: Routine ED data, analyzed using SNA, can be a first-line warning to recognize when an aggression related access is part of the spectrum of gender-based violence against women. Increasing the available number of predictors, such procedures may be proven to support ED staff in identifying early signs of violence to adequately support the victims and mitigate the harms.
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Mujeres Maltratadas/estadística & datos numéricos , Víctimas de Crimen/estadística & datos numéricos , Red Social , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias/epidemiología , Violencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Europa (Continente) , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Medición de Riesgo , Delitos Sexuales/estadística & datos numéricos , Percepción Social , Factores Socioeconómicos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The association between heat and daily mortality and its temporal variation are well known. However, few studies have analyzed the inter-annual variations in both the risk estimates and impacts of heat. The aim is to estimate inter-annual variations in the effect of heat for a fixed temperature range, on mortality in 9 European cities included in the PHASE (Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme weather events) project for the period 1990-2010. The second aim is to evaluate overall summer effects and heat-attributable deaths for each year included in the study period, considering the entire air temperature range (both mild and extreme temperatures). METHODS: A city-specific daily time-series analysis was performed, using a generalized additive Poisson regression model, restricted to the warm season (April-September). To study the temporal variation for a fixed air temperature range, a Bayesian Change Point analysis was applied to the relative risks of mortality for a 2 °C increase over the 90th percentile of the city-specific distribution. The number of heat attributable deaths in each summer were also calculated for mild (reference to 95th percentile) and extreme heat (95th percentile to maximum value). RESULTS: A decline in the effects of heat over time was observed in Athens and Rome when considering a fixed interval, while an increase in effects was observed in Helsinki. The greatest impact of heat in terms of attributable deaths was observed in the Mediterranean cities (Athens, Barcelona and Rome) for extreme air temperatures. In the other cities the impact was mostly related to extreme years with 2003 as a record breaking year in Paris (+ 1900 deaths) and London (+ 1200 deaths). CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring the impact of heat over time is important to identify changes in population vulnerability and evaluate adaptation measures.
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Calor Extremo/efectos adversos , Mortalidad , Teorema de Bayes , Ciudades/epidemiología , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Riesgo , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: this paper is based upon work from COST Action ICSHNet. Industrial contaminated sites (ICSs) are of high concern since industrial plants have produced widespread contamination potentially affecting the health of local population OBJECTIVES: to assess the types of epidemiological designs applied in studies of health effects related to ICSs according to time periods, type of ICS, and geography. METHODS: a literature search was conducted in Medline (OVID) through June 30th, 2018, using MeSH and customized terms, and no restrictions on publication year or language. We included all studies throughout the world where a potential contamination of industrial origin occurred, an epidemiological approach (including biomonitoring, HBM) was applied, and health outcomes or exposure biomarkers among residents were investigated. Data on publication year, geographical localization and ICS characterization, study design (systematic reviews, cohort, case-control, temporal changes, cross-sectional, ecological, descriptive - area-level, case-series, narrative reviews, and HBM), and health outcomes were extracted from the abstracts. To check the sensitivity of the main search strategy, a case-study on Italy was conducted applying an ad-hoc search. RESULTS: from a literature search capturing 5,485 studies, 655 studies on resident populations were identified. The review includes more than 376 different ICSs, 86% from Europe, North America, and Asia combined, mostly dealing with nuclear sites and mining industries, waste and petrochemical activities. Most of the studies were descriptive (32.5%), cross-sectional (16.3%), or narrative review (14.8%), while analytical studies - case-control and cohort studies (9.6% and 8.4%, respectively) - were rarer; HBM were only 6.9%. A total of 235 studies, conducted mostly in Asia (34.5%), Europe (25.5%), and North America (22.3%), included children. The most frequently studied outcome was cancer (33.7%), followed by respiratory diseases (11.4%), and reproductive health (11.4%). The ad-hoc strategy greatly increased the number of detected papers (+122%). CONCLUSIONS: future research should adopt the most valid and suitable study design, according to the area-specific social and environmental context, also in areas of the world which are less studied, but with very high environmental worries of the resident population suffering the industrial contamination. Involvement of local experts on ICSs and local inventories are recommended to improve the coverage of the present inventory.
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Contaminación Ambiental , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Evaluación del Impacto en la Salud , Industrias , HumanosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. METHODS: We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. FINDINGS: We analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality. INTERPRETATION: Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.
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Frío/efectos adversos , Salud Global/estadística & datos numéricos , Calor/efectos adversos , Mortalidad , Clima , Humanos , Medición de Riesgo/métodosRESUMEN
Since the first report of a possible cluster of childhood leukaemia in 1963, many studies have shown a tendency to clustering in space and/or in time of this disease. This paper summarizes the studies about clusters of childhood leukaemia in the international context and in Italy, and discusses the aetiological hypotheses particularly in reference to exposures in the area of residence. Thirty-three cluster studies have been identified through a literature search performed using the PubMed bibliographic database, websites of main national and international health authorities, and relevant reviews published on this topic. Most of leukaemia cluster studies were conducted following an alarm in the nearby areas of a point source of toxic substances as nuclear power plants, chemical-industrial sites, military bases, broadcasting antennas. As alternative explanation, in several clusters an infectious aetiology was hypothesized (population mixing or delayed infection hypothesis). The uncertainty associated with cluster investigations underlines the importance of applying rigorous methods and transparent decision making, involving parents of children with cancer and the local community, and taking into account all potential aetiological factors, especially those for which a biological plausibility exists.
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We developed an algorithm to select incident cases of lymphatic and haematopoietic system in children, in order to create a timely and accurate database of incident cases to answer the needs of cluster analysis. This group of cancers is by far the most frequent in the paediatric age. The procedure has been applied to identify incident cases in children aged 0-14 years, resident in Rome (Central Italy), and diagnosed between 2000 and 2011. The algorithm links hospital discharge records (SDO), the hospital registry of the Italian Association of paediatric haematology and oncology (AIEOP), and the Population Registry. We identified 391 cases of cancers of lymphatic and haematopoietic system; among them, the most frequent pathology is the lymphoid leukaemia, which represents 52% of total cases, followed by non-Hodgkin lymphoma (21% of total cases). Results correspond to data from literature and to the estimates from the Italian Association of cancer registries (AIRTUM), giving value to the used procedure.
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This paper describes the conceptual framework and the critical issues of investigations of clusters of childhood cancers and defines an investigative model for the health authorities responsible for assessing a suspected cluster, taking into account the guidelines available and considering the most recent advances of the Geographical Information System and of the specific statistical methodology. Three main investigation phases are identified: the first consists in the preliminary study on the health of population living in the area where the cases are defined and aetiological hypotheses are formulated; the second is the cluster evaluation study using statistical methods assessing the spatial heterogeneity and collecting information about potential risk factors; the third is the analytical epidemiological study to test aetiological hypotheses suggested by the previous phases. The residential cohort approach is the most valid to date to assess long-term effects, and allows to reconstruct the lifetime residential history from the population registry. The researchers' decision on how detailed about a suspected cluster the investigation has to be needs to take into account both the level of alarm in the population and the limited resources available. The concern about a suspected cluster of cancer cases should always be addressed, even if this implies to acknowledge limits of research and uncertainty in results interpretation.
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INTRODUCTION: the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) estimated an increase in mortality in Italy of 11.3% between January and August 2015 compared to the previous year. During summer 2015, an excess in mortality, attributed to heat waves, was observed. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the excess mortality in 2015 using data from the rapid mortality surveillance system (SiSMG) operational in 32 Italian cities. DESIGN: time series models were used to estimate the excess in mortality among the elderly (65+ years) in 2015 by season (winter and summer). Excess mortality was defined as the difference between observed daily and expected (baseline) mortality for the five previous years (2009- 2013); seasonal mortality in 2015 was compared with mortality observed in 2012, 2013, and 2014. An analysis by cause of death (cardiovascular and respiratory), gender, and age group was carried out in Rome. RESULTS: data confirm an overall estimated excess in mortality of +11% in 2015. Seasonal analysis shows a greater excess in winter (+13%) compared to the summer period (+10%). The excess in winter deaths seems to be attributable to the peak in influenza rather than to low temperatures. Summer excess mortality was attributed to the heat waves of July and August 2015. The lower mortality registered in Italy during summer 2014 (-5.9%) may have contributed to the greater excess registered in 2015. In Rome, cause-specific analysis showed a higher excess among the very old (85+ years) mainly for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in winter. In summer, the excess was observed among both the elderly and in the adult population (35-64 years). CONCLUSION: results suggest the need for a more timely use of mortality data to evaluate the impact of different risk factors. Public health measures targeted to susceptible subgroups should be enhanced (e.g., Heat Prevention Plans, flu vaccination campaigns).