Nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological inflammation markers to predict overall survival of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma patient after surgery.

BACKGROUND: Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is a prevalent malignant disease that is characterized by high rates of metastasis and postoperative recurrence. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram to predict the outcome of OTSCC patients after surgery. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 169 OTSCC patients who underwent treatments in the Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College from 2008 to 2019. The Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the independent prognostic factors associated with patient's overall survival (OS). A nomogram based on these prognostic factors was established and internally validated using a bootstrap resampling method. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed the independent prognostic factors for OS were TNM stage, age, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and immunoglobulin G, all of which were identified to create the nomogram. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion of the nomogram were lower than those of TNM stage (292.222 vs. 305.480; 298.444 vs. 307.036, respectively), indicating a better goodness-of-fit of the nomogram for predicting OS. The bootstrap-corrected of concordance index (C-index) of nomogram was 0.784 (95% CI 0.708-0.860), which was higher than that of TNM stage (0.685, 95% CI 0.603-0.767, P = 0.017). The results of time-dependent C-index for OS also showed that the nomogram had a better discriminative ability than that of TNM stage. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the probabilities and observed values. The decision curve analysis also revealed the potential clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Based on the cutoff value obtained from the nomogram, the proposed high-risk group had poorer OS than low-risk group (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological inflammation markers might be useful for outcome prediction of OTSCC patient.

Association between IGFBP1 expression and cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The results regarding the association between insulin-like growth factor binding protein 1 (IGFBP1) expression and cancer risk were controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to provide novel evidence on relationship between IGFBP1 expression and cancer risk. Methods: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library and Web of science were searched for relevant cohort and case-control studies exploring the relationship between IGFBP1 expression and cancer risk. Odds ratios (ORs) were pooled in this meta-analysis using random model. Subgroup analyses were performed based on ethnicity, tumor types, publication year, study type, Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score and sex. Results: A total of 27 studies including 16 cohort and 11 case-control studies were identified by literature search. No significant association was found between IGFBP1 expression and risk of various cancers [0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79, 1.03]. The overall results showed that the pooled ORs were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.88] for prostate cancer risk and 0.66 (95%CI: 0.44, 0.99) for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, there is no significant association between IGFBP1 expression and risk for ovarian cancer (1.70, 95%CI: 0.41, 6.99), breast cancer (1.02, 95%CI: 0.85, 1.23), endometrial cancer (1.19, 95%CI: 0.64, 2.21), colorectal adenoma (0.93; 95%CI: 0.81, 1.07), lung cancer (0.81, 95%CI: 0.39, 1.68) or multiple myeloma (1.20, 95%CI: 0.98, 1.47). Conclusion: In this study, compared with individuals at low IGFBP1 expression adjusted for age, smoking status, alcohol intake and so on, risk of the prostate cancer and CRC were decreased among individuals of high IGFBP1 expression. There needs further study to confirm this issue.

Serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 as a promising diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EJA) lacks serum biomarkers to assist in diagnosis and prognosis. Here, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) in EJA patients. METHODS: 320 participants were recruited from November 2016 to January 2020, who were randomly divided into a training cohort (112 normal controls and 102 EJA patients including 24 early-stage patients) and a validation cohort (56 normal controls and 50 EJA patients including 12 early-stage patients). We used receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) to evaluate diagnostic value. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index). RESULTS: Serum IGFBP3 levels were significantly lower in early-stage EJA or EJA patients than those in controls (P < 0.01). Measurement of serum IGFBP3 demonstrated an area under curve of 0.819, specificity 90.18% and sensitivity 43.14% in training cohort. Similar results were observed in validation cohort (0.804, 87.50%, 42.00%). Importantly, serum IGFBP3 had a satisfactory diagnostic value for early-stage EJA (0.822, 90.18%, 45.83% and 0.811, 84.48%, 50.00% in training and validation cohorts, respectively). Furthermore, survival analysis demonstrated that lower serum IGFBP3 level was related to poor prognosis (P < 0.05). Cox multivariate analysis revealed that serum IGFBP3 was an independent prognostic factor (HR = 0.468, P = 0.005). Compared with TNM stage, a nomogram based on serum IGFBP3, tumor size and TNM stage indicated an improved C-index in prognostic prediction (0.625 vs. 0.735, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We found that serum IGFBP3 was a potential diagnostic and prognostic marker of EJA. Meanwhile, the nomogram might predict the prognosis of EJA more accurately and efficiently.

Serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 as a potential biomarker for diagnosis and prognosis of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP3) has been reported to be related to the risk of some cancers. Here we focussed on serum IGFBP3 as a possible biomarker of diagnosis and prognosis for oesophageal squamous carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure the serum IGFBP3 level in the training cohort including 136 ESCC patients and 119 normal controls and the validation cohort with 55 ESCC patients and 42 normal controls. The receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) was used to assess the diagnosis value. Cox proportional hazards model was applied to select factors for survival nomogram construction. RESULTS: Serum IGFBP3 levels were significantly lower in early-stage ESCC or ESCC patients than those in normal controls (p < .05). The specificity and sensitivity of serum IGFBP3 for the diagnosis of ESCC were 95.80% and 50.00%, respectively, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.788 in the training cohort. Similar results were observed in the validation cohort (88.10%, 38.18%, and 0.710). Importantly, serum IGFBP3 could also differentiate early-stage ESCC from controls (95.80%, 52.54%, 0.777 and 88.10%, 36.36%, 0.695 in training and validation cohorts, respectively). Furthermore, Cox multivariate analysis revealed that serum IGFBP3 was an independent prognostic risk factor (HR = 2.599, p = .002). Lower serum IGFBP3 level was correlated with reduced overall survival (p < .05). Nomogram based on serum IGFBP3, TNM stage, and tumour size improved the prognostic prediction of ESCC with a concordance index of 0.715. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that serum IGFBP3 was a potential biomarker of diagnosis and prognosis for ESCC. Meanwhile, the nomogram might help predict the prognosis of ESCC. Key MessageSerum IGFBP3 showed early diagnostic value in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma with independent cohort validation. Moreover, serum IGFBP3 was identified as an independent prognostic risk factor, which was used to construct a nomogram with improved prognosis ability in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Nomogram constructed by immunological and inflammatory indicators for predicting prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus surgery.

Objectives: At present, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients accepting neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) plus surgery lack corresponding prognostic indicators. This study aimed to construct a prognostic prediction model for ESCC patients undergoing nCRT and surgery based on immune and inflammation-related indicators. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the levels of serum immune- and inflammation-related indicators of ESCC patients before receiving nCRT plus surgery in the training cohort (99 patients) and validation cohort (67 patients), which were collected from 2007 to 2020. Univariate and multivariate Cox survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the indicators to set up a nomogram associated with the patients' overall survival (OS). The prediction accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were measured by the concordance index (C-index), decision curve, calibration curve, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results: Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses demonstrated that immune globin A (IgA) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were independent risk factors. A nomogram based on IgA, CRP, and cTNM stage was established for predicted OS in the training cohort and validated in the validation cohort. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.820 (95% CI: 0.705-0.934), which was higher than that of the cTNM stage (0.655 (95% CI: 0.546-0.764), p < 0.05) in the training cohort, and similar results were observed in the validation cohort (0.832 (95% CI: 0.760-0.903 vs 0.635 (95% CI: 0.509-0.757), p < 0.001). Furthermore, the prediction accuracy and net benefit of the nomogram verified by the calibration curve, decision curve, NRI, and IDI were satisfactory in the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion: The newly constructed nomogram concluding serum IgA, CRP, and cTNM stage might be helpful in the prognosis prediction for ESCC patients receiving nCRT plus surgery.

A Prognostic Model Based on Clinicopathological Features and Inflammation- and Nutrition-Related Indicators Predicts Overall Survival in Surgical Patients With Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Objectives: It is reported that inflammation- and nutrition-related indicators have a prognostic impact on multiple cancers. Here we aimed to identify a prognostic nomogram model for prediction of overall survival (OS) in surgical patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC). Methods: The retrospective data of 172 TSCC patients were charted from the Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College between 2008 and 2019. A Cox regression analysis was performed to determine prognostic factors to establish a nomogram and predict OS. The predictive accuracy of the model was analyzed by the calibration curves and the concordance index (C-index). The difference of OS was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results: Multivariate analysis showed age, tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, red blood cell, platelets, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent prognostic factors for OS, which were used to build the prognostic nomogram model. The C-index of the model for OS was 0.794 (95% CI = 0.729-0.860), which was higher than that of TNM stage 0.685 (95% CI = 0.605-0.765). In addition, decision curve analysis also showed the nomogram model had improved predictive accuracy and discriminatory performance for OS, compared to the TNM stage. According to the prognostic model risk score, patients in the high-risk subgroup had a lower 5-year OS rate than that in a low-risk subgroup (23% vs 49%, P < .0001). Conclusions: The nomogram model based on clinicopathological features inflammation- and nutrition-related indicators represents a promising tool that might complement the TNM stage in the prognosis of TSCC.