Oseltamivir treatment for influenza in adults: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread use, questions remain about the efficacy of oseltamivir in the treatment of influenza. We aimed to do an individual patient data meta-analysis for all clinical trials comparing oseltamivir with placebo for treatment of seasonal influenza in adults regarding symptom alleviation, complications, and safety. METHODS: We included all published and unpublished Roche-sponsored randomised placebo-controlled, double-blind trials of 75 mg twice a day oseltamivir in adults. Trials of oseltamivir for treatment of naturally occurring influenza-like illness in adults reporting at least one of the study outcomes were eligible. We also searched Medline, PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the ClinicalTrials.gov trials register for other relevant trials published before Jan 1, 2014 (search last updated on Nov 27, 2014). We analysed intention-to-treat infected, intention-to-treat, and safety populations. The primary outcome was time to alleviation of all symptoms analysed with accelerated failure time methods. We used risk ratios and Mantel-Haenszel methods to work out complications, admittances to hospital, and safety outcomes. FINDINGS: We included data from nine trials including 4328 patients. In the intention-to-treat infected population, we noted a 21% shorter time to alleviation of all symptoms for oseltamivir versus placebo recipients (time ratio 0·79, 95% CI 0·74-0·85; p<0·0001). The median times to alleviation were 97·5 h for oseltamivir and 122·7 h for placebo groups (difference -25·2 h, 95% CI -36·2 to -16·0). For the intention-to-treat population, the estimated treatment effect was attenuated (time ratio 0·85) but remained highly significant (median difference -17·8 h). In the intention-to-treat infected population, we noted fewer lower respiratory tract complications requiring antibiotics more than 48 h after randomisation (risk ratio [RR] 0·56, 95% CI 0·42-0·75; p=0·0001; 4·9% oseltamivir vs 8·7% placebo, risk difference -3·8%, 95% CI -5·0 to -2·2) and also fewer admittances to hospital for any cause (RR 0·37, 95% CI 0·17-0·81; p=0·013; 0·6% oseltamivir, 1·7% placebo, risk difference -1·1%, 95% CI -1·4 to -0·3). Regarding safety, oseltamivir increased the risk of nausea (RR 1·60, 95% CI 1·29-1·99; p<0·0001; 9·9% oseltamivir vs 6·2% placebo, risk difference 3·7%, 95% CI 1·8-6·1) and vomiting (RR 2·43, 95% CI 1·83-3·23; p<0·0001; 8·0% oseltamivir vs 3·3% placebo, risk difference 4·7%, 95% CI 2·7-7·3). We recorded no effect on neurological or psychiatric disorders or serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that oseltamivir in adults with influenza accelerates time to clinical symptom alleviation, reduces risk of lower respiratory tract complications, and admittance to hospital, but increases the occurrence of nausea and vomiting. FUNDING: Multiparty Group for Advice on Science (MUGAS) foundation.

Long-term outcomes after stenting versus endarterectomy for treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis: the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Stenting is an alternative to endarterectomy for treatment of carotid artery stenosis, but long-term efficacy is uncertain. We report long-term data from the randomised International Carotid Stenting Study comparison of these treatments. METHODS: Patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis were randomly assigned 1:1 to open treatment with stenting or endarterectomy at 50 centres worldwide. Randomisation was computer generated centrally and allocated by telephone call or fax. Major outcomes were assessed by an independent endpoint committee unaware of treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was fatal or disabling stroke in any territory after randomisation to the end of follow-up. Analysis was by intention to treat ([ITT] all patients) and per protocol from 31 days after treatment (all patients in whom assigned treatment was completed). Functional ability was rated with the modified Rankin scale. This study is registered, number ISRCTN25337470. FINDINGS: 1713 patients were assigned to stenting (n=855) or endarterectomy (n=858) and followed up for a median of 4·2 years (IQR 3·0-5·2, maximum 10·0). Three patients withdrew immediately and, therefore, the ITT population comprised 1710 patients. The number of fatal or disabling strokes (52 vs 49) and cumulative 5-year risk did not differ significantly between the stenting and endarterectomy groups (6·4% vs 6·5%; hazard ratio [HR] 1·06, 95% CI 0·72-1·57, p=0·77). Any stroke was more frequent in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group (119 vs 72 events; ITT population, 5-year cumulative risk 15·2% vs 9·4%, HR 1·71, 95% CI 1·28-2·30, p<0·001; per-protocol population, 5-year cumulative risk 8·9% vs 5·8%, 1·53, 1·02-2·31, p=0·04), but were mainly non-disabling strokes. The distribution of modified Rankin scale scores at 1 year, 5 years, or final follow-up did not differ significantly between treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: Long-term functional outcome and risk of fatal or disabling stroke are similar for stenting and endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, Sanofi-Synthélabo, European Union.

Differing prognostic value of pulse pressure in patients with heart failure with reduced or preserved ejection fraction: results from the MAGGIC individual patient meta-analysis.

AIMS: Low pulse pressure is a marker of adverse outcome in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HF-REF) but the prognostic value of pulse pressure in patients with HF and preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF) is unknown. We examined the prognostic value of pulse pressure in patients with HF-PEF [ejection fraction (EF) ≥ 50%] and HF-REF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 22 HF studies were examined. Preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was defined as LVEF ≥ 50%. All-cause mortality at 3 years was evaluated in 27 046 patients: 22 038 with HF-REF (4980 deaths) and 5008 with HF-PEF (828 deaths). Pulse pressure was analysed in quintiles in a multivariable model adjusted for the previously reported Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure prognostic variables. Heart failure and reduced ejection fraction patients in the lowest pulse pressure quintile had the highest crude and adjusted mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval 1.53-1.84) compared with all other pulse pressure groups. For patients with HF-PEF, higher pulse pressure was associated with the highest crude mortality, a gradient that was eliminated after adjustment for other prognostic variables. CONCLUSION: Lower pulse pressure (especially <53 mmHg) was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with HF-REF, particularly in those with an LVEF < 30% and systolic blood pressure <140 mmHg. Overall, this relationship between pulse pressure and outcome was not consistently observed among patients with HF-PEF.

Carotid stenting: is there an operator effect? A pooled analysis from the carotid stenting trialists' collaboration.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Randomized clinical trials show higher 30-day risk of stroke or death after carotid artery stenting compared with surgery. We examined whether operator experience is associated with 30-day risk of stroke or death in the Carotid Stenting Trialists' Collaboration database. METHODS: The Carotid Stenting Trialists' Collaboration is a pooled individual patient database including all patients recruited in 3 randomized trials of stenting versus endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis (Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in patients with Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis trial, Stent-Protected Angioplasty versus Carotid Endarterectomy trial, and International Carotid Stenting Study). Lifetime carotid artery stenting experience, lifetime experience in stenting procedures excluding the carotid, and annual number of procedures performed within the trial (in-trial volume), divided into tertiles, were used to measure operator experience. The outcome event was the occurrence of any stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure. The analysis was done per protocol. RESULTS: Among 1546 patients who underwent carotid artery stenting, 120 (7.8%) had a stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure. The 30-day risk of stroke or death did not differ according to operator lifetime carotid artery stenting experience (P=0.8) or operator lifetime stenting experience excluding the carotid (P=0.7). In contrast, the 30-day risk of stroke or death was significantly higher in patients treated by operators with low (mean ≤3.2 procedures/y; risk 10.1%; adjusted risk ratio=2.30 [1.36-3.87]) and intermediate annual in-trial volumes (3.2-5.6 procedures/y; 8.4%; adjusted risk ratio=1.93 [1.14-3.27]) compared with patients treated by high annual in-trial volume operators (>5.6 procedures/y; 5.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Carotid stenting should only be performed by operators with annual procedure volume ≥6 cases per year.

Predicting survival in heart failure: a risk score based on 39 372 patients from 30 studies.

AIMS: Using a large international database from multiple cohort studies, the aim is to create a generalizable easily used risk score for mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: The MAGGIC meta-analysis includes individual data on 39 372 patients with HF, both reduced and preserved left-ventricular ejection fraction (EF), from 30 cohort studies, six of which were clinical trials. 40.2% of patients died during a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Using multivariable piecewise Poisson regression methods with stepwise variable selection, a final model included 13 highly significant independent predictors of mortality in the following order of predictive strength: age, lower EF, NYHA class, serum creatinine, diabetes, not prescribed beta-blocker, lower systolic BP, lower body mass, time since diagnosis, current smoker, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, male gender, and not prescribed ACE-inhibitor or angiotensin-receptor blockers. In preserved EF, age was more predictive and systolic BP was less predictive of mortality than in reduced EF. Conversion into an easy-to-use integer risk score identified a very marked gradient in risk, with 3-year mortality rates of 10 and 70% in the bottom quintile and top decile of risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients with HF of both reduced and preserved EF, the influences of readily available predictors of mortality can be quantified in an integer score accessible by an easy-to-use website www.heartfailurerisk.org. The score has the potential for widespread implementation in a clinical setting.

Prognostic significance of visit-to-visit variability, maximum systolic blood pressure, and episodic hypertension.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms by which hypertension causes vascular events are unclear. Guidelines for diagnosis and treatment focus only on underlying mean blood pressure. We aimed to reliably establish the prognostic significance of visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure, maximum blood pressure reached, untreated episodic hypertension, and residual variability in treated patients. METHODS: We determined the risk of stroke in relation to visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (expressed as standard deviation [SD] and parameters independent of mean blood pressure) and maximum blood pressure in patients with previous transient ischaemic attack (TIA; UK-TIA trial and three validation cohorts) and in patients with treated hypertension (Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial Blood Pressure Lowering Arm [ASCOT-BPLA]). In ASCOT-BPLA, 24-h ambulatory blood-pressure monitoring (ABPM) was also studied. FINDINGS: In each TIA cohort, visit-to-visit variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) was a strong predictor of subsequent stroke (eg, top-decile hazard ratio [HR] for SD SBP over seven visits in UK-TIA trial: 6.22, 95% CI 4.16-9.29, p<0.0001), independent of mean SBP, but dependent on precision of measurement (top-decile HR over ten visits: 12.08, 7.40-19.72, p<0.0001). Maximum SBP reached was also a strong predictor of stroke (HR for top-decile over seven visits: 15.01, 6.56-34.38, p<0.0001, after adjustment for mean SBP). In ASCOT-BPLA, residual visit-to-visit variability in SBP on treatment was also a strong predictor of stroke and coronary events (eg, top-decile HR for stroke: 3.25, 2.32-4.54, p<0.0001), independent of mean SBP in clinic or on ABPM. Variability on ABPM was a weaker predictor, but all measures of variability were most predictive in younger patients and at lower (

Short-term outcome after stenting versus endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis: a preplanned meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Results from randomised controlled trials have shown a higher short-term risk of stroke associated with carotid stenting than with carotid endarterectomy for the treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis. However, these trials were underpowered for investigation of whether carotid artery stenting might be a safe alternative to endarterectomy in specific patient subgroups. We therefore did a preplanned meta-analysis of individual patient data from three randomised controlled trials. METHODS: Data from all 3433 patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis who were randomly assigned and analysed in the Endarterectomy versus Angioplasty in Patients with Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis (EVA-3S) trial, the Stent-Protected Angioplasty versus Carotid Endarterectomy (SPACE) trial, and the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) were pooled and analysed with fixed-effect binomial regression models adjusted for source trial. The primary outcome event was any stroke or death. The intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis included all patients and outcome events occurring between randomisation and 120 days thereafter. The per-protocol (PP) analysis was restricted to patients receiving the allocated treatment and events occurring within 30 days after treatment. FINDINGS: In the first 120 days after randomisation (ITT analysis), any stroke or death occurred significantly more often in the carotid stenting group (153 [8·9%] of 1725) than in the carotid endarterectomy group (99 [5·8%] of 1708, risk ratio [RR] 1·53, [95% CI 1·20-1·95], p=0·0006; absolute risk difference 3·2 [1·4-4·9]). Of all subgroup variables assessed, only age significantly modified the treatment effect: in patients younger than 70 years (median age), the estimated 120-day risk of stroke or death was 50 (5·8%) of 869 patients in the carotid stenting group and 48 (5·7%) of 843 in the carotid endarterectomy group (RR 1·00 [0·68-1·47]); in patients 70 years or older, the estimated risk with carotid stenting was twice that with carotid endarterectomy (103 [12·0%] of 856 vs 51 [5·9%] of 865, 2·04 [1·48-2·82], interaction p=0·0053, p=0·0014 for trend). In the PP analysis, risk estimates of stroke or death within 30 days of treatment among patients younger than 70 years were 43 (5·1%) of 851 patients in the stenting group and 37 (4·5%) of 821 in the endarterectomy group (1·11 [0·73-1·71]); in patients 70 years or older, the estimates were 87 (10·5%) of 828 patients and 36 (4·4%) of 824, respectively (2·41 [1·65-3·51]; categorical interaction p=0·0078, trend interaction p=0·0013]. INTERPRETATION: Stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis should be avoided in older patients (age ≥70 years), but might be as safe as endarterectomy in younger patients. FUNDING: The Stroke Association.

Carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis (International Carotid Stenting Study): an interim analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Stents are an alternative treatment to carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis, but previous trials have not established equivalent safety and efficacy. We compared the safety of carotid artery stenting with that of carotid endarterectomy. METHODS: The International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) is a multicentre, international, randomised controlled trial with blinded adjudication of outcomes. Patients with recently symptomatic carotid artery stenosis were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. Randomisation was by telephone call or fax to a central computerised service and was stratified by centre with minimisation for sex, age, contralateral occlusion, and side of the randomised artery. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment assignment. Patients were followed up by independent clinicians not directly involved in delivering the randomised treatment. The primary outcome measure of the trial is the 3-year rate of fatal or disabling stroke in any territory, which has not been analysed yet. The main outcome measure for the interim safety analysis was the 120-day rate of stroke, death, or procedural myocardial infarction. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT). This study is registered, number ISRCTN25337470. FINDINGS: The trial enrolled 1713 patients (stenting group, n=855; endarterectomy group, n=858). Two patients in the stenting group and one in the endarterectomy group withdrew immediately after randomisation, and were not included in the ITT analysis. Between randomisation and 120 days, there were 34 (Kaplan-Meier estimate 4.0%) events of disabling stroke or death in the stenting group compared with 27 (3.2%) events in the endarterectomy group (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 0.77-2.11). The incidence of stroke, death, or procedural myocardial infarction was 8.5% in the stenting group compared with 5.2% in the endarterectomy group (72 vs 44 events; HR 1.69, 1.16-2.45, p=0.006). Risks of any stroke (65 vs 35 events; HR 1.92, 1.27-2.89) and all-cause death (19 vs seven events; HR 2.76, 1.16-6.56) were higher in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group. Three procedural myocardial infarctions were recorded in the stenting group, all of which were fatal, compared with four, all non-fatal, in the endarterectomy group. There was one event of cranial nerve palsy in the stenting group compared with 45 in the endarterectomy group. There were also fewer haematomas of any severity in the stenting group than in the endarterectomy group (31 vs 50 events; p=0.0197). INTERPRETATION: Completion of long-term follow-up is needed to establish the efficacy of carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy. In the meantime, carotid endarterectomy should remain the treatment of choice for patients suitable for surgery. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, the Stroke Association, Sanofi-Synthélabo, European Union.

Categorisation of continuous risk factors in epidemiological publications: a survey of current practice.

BACKGROUND: Reports of observational epidemiological studies often categorise (group) continuous risk factor (exposure) variables. However, there has been little systematic assessment of how categorisation is practiced or reported in the literature and no extended guidelines for the practice have been identified. Thus, we assessed the nature of such practice in the epidemiological literature. Two months (December 2007 and January 2008) of five epidemiological and five general medical journals were reviewed. All articles that examined the relationship between continuous risk factors and health outcomes were surveyed using a standard proforma, with the focus on the primary risk factor. Using the survey results we provide illustrative examples and, combined with ideas from the broader literature and from experience, we offer guidelines for good practice. RESULTS: Of the 254 articles reviewed, 58 were included in our survey. Categorisation occurred in 50 (86%) of them. Of those, 42% also analysed the variable continuously and 24% considered alternative groupings. Most (78%) used 3 to 5 groups. No articles relied solely on dichotomisation, although it did feature prominently in 3 articles. The choice of group boundaries varied: 34% used quantiles, 18% equally spaced categories, 12% external criteria, 34% other approaches and 2% did not describe the approach used. Categorical risk estimates were most commonly (66%) presented as pairwise comparisons to a reference group, usually the highest or lowest (79%). Reporting of categorical analysis was mostly in tables; only 20% in figures. CONCLUSIONS: Categorical analyses of continuous risk factors are common. Accordingly, we provide recommendations for good practice. Key issues include pre-defining appropriate choice of groupings and analysis strategies, clear presentation of grouped findings in tables and figures, and drawing valid conclusions from categorical analyses, avoiding injudicious use of multiple alternative analyses.

Impact of hospitalization for acute coronary events on subsequent mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: We explored the impact of having a hospital admission for an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) on the subsequent prognosis among patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 7599 patients with CHF, New York Heart Association Classes II-IV, were randomly assigned to candesartan or placebo. We assessed the risk of death after a first ACS using time-updated Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for baseline predictors. During a mean follow-up of 3.3 years, 1174 patients experienced at least one ACS. Myocardial infarction (MI) was the first ACS in 442 subjects and unstable angina (UA) in 732. After these events, 219 (49.5%) and 167 (22.8%) patients died during follow-up. The early risk of death was more pronounced after MI: 30.2% died within 30 days compared with 3.6% after UA. After an ACS event, the risk of death declined steadily over time, although 18 months after an MI the risk was still twice that of patients without an ACS. CONCLUSION: Patients with CHF, who develop an ACS, have markedly increased subsequent mortality, particularly in the early phase after an MI.

Weight loss and mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure in the candesartan in heart failure: assessment of reduction in mortality and morbidity (CHARM) programme.

AIMS: The curiosity that leanness is associated with poor survival in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) needs further insight by investigating the impact of weight loss on prognosis in a large sample of patients across a broad spectrum of both reduced and preserved left ventricular (LV) systolic function. METHODS AND RESULTS: We investigated the change in weight over 6 months in 6933 patients in the Candesartan in Heart failure: Reduction in Mortality and morbidity (CHARM) programme, and its association with subsequent mortality (1435 deaths) over a median 32.9 months follow-up using Cox proportional hazard models to account for the impact of body mass index and other risk predictors. We then used time-updated Cox models to relate each patient's ongoing data on annual weight change to their mortality hazard. The percentage weight loss over 6 months had a highly significant monotonically increasing association with excess mortality, both for cardiovascular and for other causes of death. Patients with 5% or greater weight loss in 6 months had over a 50% increase in hazard compared with those with stable weight. Weight loss carried a particularly high risk in patients who were already lean at study entry. Findings were similar in the presence of dependent oedema, preserved or reduced LV ejection fraction, and treatment with candesartan, although weight loss was significantly less common on candesartan. The time-updated analyses revealed an even stronger link between weight loss and short-term risk of dying, i.e. risk increased more than four-fold for patients whose last recorded annual weight loss exceeded 10%. Weight gain had a more modestly increased short-term mortality risk. Weight loss accelerates in the year prior to death. CONCLUSIONS: Weight loss and leanness are important predictors of poor prognosis in CHF. Being lean and losing weight is particularly bad. The detection of weight change, and particularly weight loss, should be considered as an adverse sign prompting further evaluation.

Silent brain infarcts on diffusion-weighted imaging after carotid revascularisation: A surrogate outcome measure for procedural stroke? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To investigate whether lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI+) after carotid artery stenting (CAS) or endarterectomy (CEA) might provide a surrogate outcome measure for procedural stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Systematic MedLine® database search with selection of all studies published up to the end of 2016 in which DWI scans were obtained before and within seven days after CAS or CEA. The correlation between the underlying log odds of stroke and of DWI+ across all treatment groups (i.e. CAS or CEA groups) from included studies was estimated using a bivariate random effects logistic regression model. Relative risks of DWI+ and stroke in studies comparing CAS vs. CEA were estimated using fixed-effect Mantel-Haenszel models. RESULTS: We included data of 4871 CAS and 2099 CEA procedures (85 studies). Across all treatment groups (CAS and CEA), the log odds for DWI+ was significantly associated with the log odds for clinically manifest stroke (correlation coefficient 0.61 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.87), p = 0.0012). Across all carotid artery stenting groups, the correlation coefficient was 0.19 (p = 0.074). There were too few CEA groups to reliably estimate a correlation coefficient in this subset alone. In 19 studies comparing CAS vs. CEA, the relative risks (95% confidence intervals) of DWI+ and stroke were 3.83 (3.17-4.63, p < 0.00001) and 2.38 (1.44-3.94, p = 0.0007), respectively. DISCUSSION: This systematic meta-analysis demonstrates a correlation between the occurrence of silent brain infarcts on diffusion-weighted imaging and the risk of clinically manifest stroke in carotid revascularisation procedures. CONCLUSION: Our findings strengthen the evidence base for the use of DWI as a surrogate outcome measure for procedural stroke in carotid revascularisation procedures. Further randomised studies comparing treatment effects on DWI lesions and clinical stroke are needed to fully establish surrogacy.

Influence of nonfatal hospitalization for heart failure on subsequent mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic heart failure (HF) are at increased risk of both fatal and nonfatal major adverse cardiovascular events. We used data from the Candesartan in Heart failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity (CHARM) trials to assess the influence of nonfatal hospitalizations for HF on subsequent mortality rates in a broad spectrum of HF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the present study, 7599 patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV HF and reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction were randomized to placebo or candesartan. We assessed the risk of death after discharge from a first hospitalization for HF using time-updated Cox proportional-hazards models on 7572 patients for whom discharge data were available. Of 7572 patients, 1455 (19%) had at least 1 HF hospitalization, and 586 of 1819 deaths occurred after discharge from an HF hospitalization. The mortality rate was increased after HF hospitalizations, even after adjustment for baseline predictors of death (hazard ratio, 3.15; 95% confidence interval, 2.83 to 3.50). Longer duration of HF hospitalization enhanced the risk of dying, as did repeat HF hospitalizations. Moreover, risk of death was highest within a month of discharge and then declined progressively over time, particularly for death resulting from HF progression and for sudden cardiac death. We observed a similar pattern of risk associated with all-cause hospitalization, although the magnitude was less than that with HF hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic HF, the risk of death is greatest in the early period after discharge after a hospitalization for HF and is directly related to the duration and frequency of HF hospitalizations. These findings suggest a role for increased surveillance in the early postdischarge period of greatest vulnerability after an HF admission.

Influence of stent design and use of protection devices on outcome of carotid artery stenting: a pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Carotid artery stenting is an alternative to endarterectomy for the treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis but was associated with a higher risk of procedural stroke or death in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Technical aspects of treatment may partly explain these results. The purpose of this analysis was to investigate the influence of technical aspects such as stent design or the use of protection devices, as well as clinical variables, on procedural risk. METHODS: We pooled data of 1557 individual patients receiving stent treatment in three large RCTs comparing stenting versus endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. The primary outcome event was any procedural stroke or death occurring within 30 days after stenting. RESULTS: Procedural stroke or death occurred significantly more often with the use of open-cell stents (61/595 patients, 10.3%) than with closed-cell stents (58/962 patients, 6.0%; RR 1.76; 95% CI 1.23 to 2.52; P=0.002). Procedural stroke or death occurred in 76/950 patients (8.0%) treated with protection devices (predominantly distal filters) and in 43/607 (7.1%) treated without protection devices (RR 1.10; 95% CI 0.71 to 1.70; P=0.67). Clinical variables predicting the primary outcome event were age, severity of the qualifying event, history of prior stroke, and level of disability at baseline. The effect of stent design remained similar after adjustment for these variables. CONCLUSIONS: In symptomatic carotid stenosis, the use of stents with a closed-cell design is independently associated with a lower risk of procedural stroke or death compared with open-cell stents. Filter-type protection devices do not appear to reduce procedural risk.

Restenosis and risk of stroke after stenting or endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS): secondary analysis of a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The risk of stroke associated with carotid artery restenosis after stenting or endarterectomy is unclear. We aimed to compare the long-term risk of restenosis after these treatments and to investigate if restenosis causes stroke in a secondary analysis of the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS). METHODS: ICSS is a parallel-group randomised trial at 50 tertiary care centres in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Patients aged 40 years or older with symptomatic carotid stenosis measuring 50% or more were randomly assigned either stenting or endarterectomy in a 1:1 ratio. Randomisation was computer-generated and done centrally, with allocation by telephone or fax, stratified by centre, and with minimisation for sex, age, side of stenosis, and occlusion of the contralateral carotid artery. Patients were followed up both clinically and with carotid duplex ultrasound at baseline, 30 days after treatment, 6 months after randomisation, then annually for up to 10 years. We included patients whose assigned treatment was completed and who had at least one ultrasound examination after treatment. Restenosis was defined as any narrowing of the treated artery measuring 50% or more (at least moderate) or 70% or more (severe), or occlusion of the artery. The degree of restenosis based on ultrasound velocities and clinical outcome events were adjudicated centrally; assessors were masked to treatment assignment. Restenosis was analysed using interval-censored models and its association with later ipsilateral stroke using Cox regression. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN25337470. This report presents a secondary analysis, and follow-up is complete. FINDINGS: Between May, 2001, and October, 2008, 1713 patients were enrolled and randomly allocated treatment (855 were assigned stenting and 858 endarterectomy), of whom 1530 individuals were followed up with ultrasound (737 assigned stenting and 793 endarterectomy) for a median of 4·0 years (IQR 2·3-5·0). At least moderate restenosis (≥50%) occurred in 274 patients after stenting (cumulative 5-year risk 40·7%) and in 217 after endarterectomy (29·6%; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·43, 95% CI 1·21-1·72; p<0·0001). Patients with at least moderate restenosis (≥50%) had a higher risk of ipsilateral stroke than did individuals without restenosis in the overall patient population (HR 3·18, 95% CI 1·52-6·67; p=0·002) and in the endarterectomy group alone (5·75, 1·80-18·33; p=0·003), but no significant increase in stroke risk after restenosis was recorded in the stenting group (2·03, 0·77-5·37; p=0·154; p=0·10 for interaction with treatment). No difference was noted in the risk of severe restenosis (≥70%) or subsequent stroke between the two treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: At least moderate (≥50%) restenosis occurred more frequently after stenting than after endarterectomy and increased the risk for ipsilateral stroke in the overall population. Whether the restenosis-mediated risk of stroke differs between stenting and endarterectomy requires further research. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, the Stroke Association, Sanofi-Synthélabo, and the European Union.

Carotid artery stenting compared with endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis (International Carotid Stenting Study): a randomised controlled trial with cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is an alternative to carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for the treatment of carotid stenosis, but safety and long-term efficacy were uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risks, benefits and cost-effectiveness of CAS versus CEA for symptomatic carotid stenosis. DESIGN: International, multicentre, randomised controlled, open, prospective clinical trial. SETTING: Hospitals at 50 centres worldwide. PARTICIPANTS: Patients older than 40 years of age with symptomatic atheromatous carotid artery stenosis. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly allocated stenting or endarterectomy using a computerised service and followed for up to 10 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the long-term rate of fatal or disabling stroke, analysed by intention to treat (ITT). Disability was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). A cost-utility analysis estimating mean costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was calculated over a 5-year time horizon. RESULTS: A total of 1713 patients were randomised but three withdrew consent immediately, leaving 1710 for ITT analysis (853 were assigned to stenting and 857 were assigned to endarterectomy). The incidence of stroke, death or procedural myocardial infarction (MI) within 120 days of treatment was 8.5% in the CAS group versus 5.2% in the CEA group (72 vs. 44 events) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16 to 2.45; p = 0.006]. In the analysis restricted to patients who completed stenting, age independently predicted the risk of stroke, death or MI within 30 days of CAS (relative risk increase 1.17% per 5 years of age, 95% CI 1.01% to 1.37%). Use of an open-cell stent conferred higher risk than a closed-cell stent (relative risk 1.92, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.33), but use of a cerebral protection device did not modify the risk. CAS was associated with a higher risk of stroke in patients with an age-related white-matter changes score of 7 or more (HR 2.98, 95% CI 1.29 to 6.93; p = 0.011). After completion of follow-up with a median of 4.2 years, the number of patients with fatal or disabling stroke in the CAS and CEA groups (52 vs. 49), and the cumulative 5-year risk did not differ significantly (6.4% vs. 6.5%) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.57; p = 0.776). Stroke of any severity was more frequent in the CAS group (15.2% vs. 9.4% in the CEA group) (HR 1.712, 95% CI 1.280 to 2.300; p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in long-term rates of severe carotid restenosis or occlusion (10.8% in the CAS group vs. 8.6% in the CEA group) (HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.75; p = 0.20). There was no difference in the distribution of mRS scores at 1-year, 5-year or final follow-up. There were no differences in costs or QALYs between the treatments. LIMITATIONS: Patients and investigators were not blinded to treatment allocation. Interventionists' experience of stenting was less than that of surgeons with endarterectomy. Data on costs of managing strokes were not collected. CONCLUSIONS: The functional outcome after stenting is similar to endarterectomy, but stenting is associated with a small increase in the risk of non-disabling stroke. The choice between stenting and endarterectomy should take into account the procedural risks related to individual patient characteristics. Future studies should include measurement of cognitive function, assessment of carotid plaque morphology and identification of clinical characteristics that determine benefit from revascularisation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25337470. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 20. See the NIHR Journal Library website for further project information. Further funding was provided by the Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, Sanofi-Synthélabo and the European Union.

Cost-utility analysis of stenting versus endarterectomy in the International Carotid Stenting Study.

BACKGROUND: The International Carotid Stenting Study was a multicenter randomized trial in which patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis were randomly allocated to treatment by carotid stenting or endarterectomy. Economic evidence comparing these treatments is limited and inconsistent. AIMS: We compared the cost-effectiveness of stenting versus endarterectomy using International Carotid Stenting Study data. METHODS: We performed a cost-utility analysis estimating mean costs and quality-adjusted life years per patient for both treatments over a five-year time horizon based on resource use data and utility values collected in the trial. Costs of managing stroke events were estimated using individual patient data from a UK population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). RESULTS: Mean costs per patient (95% CI) were US$10,477 ($9669 to $11,285) in the stenting group (N = 853) and $9669 ($8835 to $10,504) in the endarterectomy group (N = 857). There were no differences in mean quality-adjusted life years per patient (3.247 (3.160 to 3.333) and 3.228 (3.150 to 3.306), respectively). There were no differences in adjusted costs between groups (mean incremental costs for stenting versus endarterectomy $736 (95% CI -$353 to $1826)) or adjusted outcomes (mean quality-adjusted life years gained -0.010 (95% CI -0.117 to 0.097)). The incremental net monetary benefit for stenting versus endarterectomy was not significantly different from zero at the maximum willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year commonly used in the UK. Sensitivity analyses showed little uncertainty in these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Economic considerations should not affect whether patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis undergo stenting or endarterectomy.

Length of carotid stenosis predicts peri-procedural stroke or death and restenosis in patients randomized to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND: The anatomy of carotid stenosis may influence the outcome of endovascular treatment or carotid endarterectomy. Whether anatomy favors one treatment over the other in terms of safety or efficacy has not been investigated in randomized trials. METHODS: In 414 patients with mostly symptomatic carotid stenosis randomized to endovascular treatment (angioplasty or stenting; n = 213) or carotid endarterectomy (n = 211) in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), the degree and length of stenosis and plaque surface irregularity were assessed on baseline intraarterial angiography. Outcome measures were stroke or death occurring between randomization and 30 days after treatment, and ipsilateral stroke and restenosis ≥50% during follow-up. RESULTS: Carotid stenosis longer than 0.65 times the common carotid artery diameter was associated with increased risk of peri-procedural stroke or death after both endovascular treatment [odds ratio 2.79 (1.17-6.65), P = 0.02] and carotid endarterectomy [2.43 (1.03-5.73), P = 0.04], and with increased long-term risk of restenosis in endovascular treatment [hazard ratio 1.68 (1.12-2.53), P = 0.01]. The excess in restenosis after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy was significantly greater in patients with long stenosis than with short stenosis at baseline (interaction P = 0.003). Results remained significant after multivariate adjustment. No associations were found for degree of stenosis and plaque surface. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing stenosis length is an independent risk factor for peri-procedural stroke or death in endovascular treatment and carotid endarterectomy, without favoring one treatment over the other. However, the excess restenosis rate after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy increases with longer stenosis at baseline. Stenosis length merits further investigation in carotid revascularisation trials.