Excess Mortality and Causes Associated with Chikungunya, Puerto Rico, 2014-2015.

During 2014-2015, a total of 31 deaths were associated with the first chikungunya epidemic in Puerto Rico. We analyzed excess mortality from various causes for the same months during the previous 4 years and detected 1,310 deaths possibly attributable to chikungunya. Our findings raise important questions about increased mortality rates associated with chikungunya.

Molecular detection of fungi of public health importance in wild animals from Southern Brazil.

Some animals have an important relationship with fungal infections, and searching for pathogens in animal samples may be an opportunity for eco-epidemiological research. Since studies involving wildlife are generally restricted, using samples from road kills is an alternative. The aim of this study was to verify whether pathogenic fungi of public health importance occur in wildlife road kills from Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Organ samples (n = 1063) from 297 animals were analysed according to Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) using universal primers to detect fungi in general and, subsequently, using primers specific to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, Histoplasma capsulatum and Cryptococcus spp. There were 102 samples positive for fungal species. Eight samples were positive for P. brasiliensis, three samples were positive for Cryptococcus spp. and one sample had coinfection by these two fungi. No sample was positive for Histoplasma spp. according to the molecular detection. Genetic sequencing allowed the identification of Fungal sp. in 89 samples, Cryptococcus neoformans in two samples and Aspergillus penicillioides in three samples. This study shows the importance of wild animals in the epidemiology of fungal infections and assists in the mapping of pathogen occurrence in a region that was not previously evaluated.

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in Brazil: implications for the immunisation policy for at-risk populations.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the leading cause of hospitalisation for respiratory diseases among children under 5 years old. The aim of this study was to analyse RSV seasonality in the five distinct regions of Brazil using time series analysis (wavelet and Fourier series) of the following indicators: monthly positivity of the immunofluorescence reaction for RSV identified by virologic surveillance system, and rate of hospitalisations per bronchiolitis and pneumonia due to RSV in children under 5 years old (codes CID-10 J12.1, J20.5, J21.0 and J21.9). A total of 12,501 samples with 11.6% positivity for RSV (95% confidence interval 11 - 12.2), varying between 7.1 and 21.4% in the five Brazilian regions, was analysed. A strong trend for annual cycles with a stable stationary pattern in the five regions was identified through wavelet analysis of the indicators. The timing of RSV activity by Fourier analysis was similar between the two indicators analysed and showed regional differences. This study reinforces the importance of adjusting the immunisation period for high risk population with the monoclonal antibody palivizumab taking into account regional differences in seasonality of RSV.

Trends in mortality from respiratory diseases among the elderly and the influenza vaccine intervention, 1980-2009.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate mortality trends before and after the anti-influenza vaccination campaigns among the elderly in Brazil. METHODS: This was an ecological time-series study of mortality from respiratory diseases among the elderly living in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1980 - 2009. Mortality rates were calculated using death data from the Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Polynomial regression models were used to evaluate mortality trends by sex and age group (60 - 69 years; 70 - 79, and 80 years or older) before and after the beginning of influenza vaccination campaigns. RESULTS: An increase in the respiratory mortality rates was observed in 1980 - 1998, mainly among males. The rate and velocity of the increase was higher among the older age groups. In the years following the vaccine campaigns (1999 - 2009), respiratory mortality rate trends by sex and age stabilized in São Paulo state. CONCLUSIONS: A greater reduction in mortality rates would be observed if vaccinal coverage against influenza were greater and more homogenous. New strategies to increase the uptake of vaccine among the elderly are needed to reach higher coverage levels, especially in municipalities with older and larger populations.

Vaccination against poliomyelitis in Brazil from 2011 to 2021: successes, setbacks, and challenges ahead. / Vacinação contra poliomielite no Brasil de 2011 a 2021: sucessos, reveses e desafios futuros.

The drop in childhood vaccination coverage (VC), including poliomyelitis, has become a health concern. The objective was to analyze the temporal trend of coverage of the three doses of the polio vaccine in the first 12 months of life between 2011 and 2021, in addition to mapping vaccination coverage in Brazil, including the COVID-19 pandemic period. An ecological study was carried out using interrupted time series (STI) techniques and spatial analysis, with data from the National Immunization Program Information System. The VC trend was adjusted by the Newey-West variance estimator according to the federated units and the Brazilian Deprivation Index. The VC distribution was estimated by Bayesian models and the spatial clusters by the global and local Moran index, identifying areas of lower coverage in the health regions. There was a reduction in the VC over the period in all regions, being more pronounced in the North and Northeast regions and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The biggest drops were identified in states and health regions with greater social vulnerability after 2019. The drop in VC shows that the risk of reintroduction of the wild virus is imminent and the challenges need to be faced with the strengthening of the Brazilian Health System (SUS).

A queda de coberturas vacinais (CV) na infância, entre elas a da poliomielite, vem se tornando uma preocupação sanitária. O objetivo foi analisar a tendência temporal das coberturas das três doses da vacina contra a poliomielite nos primeiros 12 meses de vida entre 2011 e 2021, com destaque na pandemia de COVID-19, além de mapear as CV no Brasil. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com técnicas de série temporal interrompida (STI) e análise espacial, a partir dos dados do Sistema de Informação do Programa Nacional de Imunização. A tendência da CV foi ajustada pelo estimador de variância de Newey-West, segundo as unidades federadas e o Índice de Privação Brasileiro. A distribuição da CV foi estimada por modelos bayesianos e os aglomerados espaciais pelos índices de Moran global e local, identificando áreas de menor cobertura nas Regiões de Saúde. Observa-se perda da CV ao longo do período em todas as regiões do país, sendo maiores no Norte e no Nordeste e se acentuando durante a pandemia. As maiores quedas foram identificadas em estados e regiões de saúde com maior vulnerabilidade social. A queda na CV mostra que o risco de reintrodução do vírus selvagem é iminente e os desafios precisam ser enfrentados com o fortalecimento do Sistema Único de Saúde.

Measles vaccination in Brazil: where have we been and where are we headed? / Vacinação do sarampo no Brasil: onde estivemos e para onde vamos?

The re-emergence of vaccine-preventable diseases due to the decline in vaccine coverage (VC) has been documented in several countries. The objective was to analyze the VC, the homogeneity of VC, and measles cases in Brazil from 2011 to 2021, focusing on the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, its temporal trend, space-time distribution, and factors associated with clusters of lower VC. This is an ecological study on measles VC (dose 1), with methods of interrupted time series and evaluation of spatio-temporal disposition, through the sweep test to identify clusters of VC. Starting in 2015, we observe a progressive decline in VC and homogeneity, with an accentuation after 2020, in all regions, particularly in the North and Northeast. Low VC clusters were associated with worse human development indicators, social inequality, and less access to the Family Health Strategy. In Brazil, the pandemic intensified health inequalities with low VC of measles in socially more vulnerable and unequal municipalities. There is a risk of virus circulation, however, the challenge of strengthening primary care, improving health communication and guaranteeing access to the vaccine, reducing missed opportunities for vaccination and vaccine hesitancy, is highlighted.

A reemergência de doenças imunopreveníveis devido à queda das coberturas vacinais (CV) tem sido documentada em vários países. O objetivo foi analisar a CV, a homogeneidade das CV e os casos de sarampo no Brasil de 2011 a 2021, com enfoque no período da pandemia de COVID-19, sua tendência temporal, distribuição espaço-temporal e fatores associados aos aglomerados de menor CV. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico sobre a CV de sarampo (dose 1), com métodos de série temporal interrompida e de avaliação da disposição espaço-temporal, por meio do teste de varredura na identificação de aglomerados de CV. A partir de 2015, observa-se queda progressiva das CV e da homogeneidade, acentuando-se após 2020 em todas as regiões, particularmente Norte e Nordeste. Aglomerados de baixa CV foram associados a piores indicadores de desenvolvimento humano, desigualdade social e menor acesso à Estratégia de Saúde da Família. No Brasil, a pandemia intensificou as iniquidades em saúde, com baixas CV de sarampo em municípios socialmente mais vulneráveis e desiguais. Há risco de circulação do vírus, reafirmando o desafio de fortalecer a atenção básica, aprimorar a comunicação em saúde e garantir acesso à vacina, diminuindo oportunidades perdidas de vacinação e a hesitação vacinal.

Impact of COVID-19 RT-PCR testing of asymptomatic health care workers on absenteeism and hospital transmission during the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic patients is critical in controlling the circulation of the virus. METHODS: This study evaluated the prevalence of Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity in serial tests in 429 asymptomatic health care workers (HCW) and its impact on absenteeism. HCW from a COVID-19 reference hospital were tested, screened, and placed on leave. A time-series segmented regression of weekly absenteeism rates was used, and cases of infection among hospitalized patients were analyzed. Viral gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed on samples from HCW who had a positive result. RESULTS: A significant decrease in absenteeism was detected 3-4 weeks after the intervention at a time of increased transmission within the city. The prevalence of RT-PCR positivity among asymptomatic professionals was 17.3%. Phylogenetic analyses (59 samples) detected nine clusters, two of them strongly suggestive of intrahospital transmission with strains (75% B.1.1.28) circulating in the region during this period. CONCLUSIONS: Testing and placing asymptomatic professionals on leave contributed to control strategy for COVID-19 transmission in the hospital environment, and in reducing positivity and absenteeism, which directly influences the quality of care and exposes professionals to an extra load of stress.

[Social vulnerability, survival, and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in patients aged 50 years and over: retrospective cohort of cases in Brazil in 2020 and 2021]. / Vulnerabilidade social, sobrevida e letalidade hospitalar pela COVID-19 em pacientes com 50 anos ou mais: coorte retrospectiva de casos no Brasil em 2020 e 2021.

The outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection is not only associated with age and comorbidities but is also aggravated by social vulnerability. This study aims to analyze - according to social vulnerability - survival and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in the first 100 days from symptoms to death in individuals aged 50 years or older hospitalized in Brazil. This is a retrospective cohort from Epidemiological Week 11 of 2020 to week 33 of 2021. The Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) provided clinical and epidemiological data. The Geographic Index of the Socioeconomic Context for Health and Social Studies (GeoSES) measured social vulnerability. The Kaplan-Meier curve and the adjusted proportional risk model by Cox were used for survival, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Among the 410,504 cases, overall lethality was of 42.2% in general and 51.4% in the most vulnerable. We found a higher lethality according to worse socioeconomic status in all categories by age group; the double is registered for 50-59 years. The adjusted Cox model showed a 32% increase in risk of death (HR = 1.32; 95%CI: 1.24-1.42). Moreover, men, older adults, black or indigenous adults, with multiple comorbidities, and subjected to invasive ventilation, have a higher risk of death after hospitalization. Intersectoral policy measures need to be targeted to alleviate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic aggravated by social vulnerability.

O desfecho da infecção pelo SARS-CoV-2 não se associa apenas à idade e a comorbidades, mas também agrava-se por vulnerabilidade social. Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar, segundo vulnerabilidade social, a sobrevida e a letalidade hospitalar por COVID-19 para os primeiros 100 dias entre sintomas até o óbito em indivíduos de 50 anos ou mais hospitalizados no Brasil. Trata-se de uma coorte retrospectiva das Semanas Epidemiológicas 11, de 2020, a 33, de 2021. O Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) forneceu dados clínico-epidemiológicos. O Índice Socioeconômico do Contexto Geográfico para Estudos em Saúde (GeoSES) mensurou vulnerabilidade social. Para sobrevida, utilizou-se a curva de Kaplan-Meier e o modelo ajustado de riscos proporcionais de Cox, com hazard ratio (HR) e intervalos de 95% de confiança (IC95%). Dentre os 410.504 casos, a letalidade geral foi de 42,2%, sendo 51,4% os indivíduos mais vulneráveis. Por faixa etária, registra-se a presença de maior letalidade para os piores status socioeconômicos em todas as categorias; para 50-59 anos, registra-se o dobro. O modelo ajustado de Cox mostrou aumento de 32% de risco para óbito (HR = 1,32; IC95%: 1,24-1,42). Ademais, homens, idosos, pretos ou indígenas, com múltiplas comorbidades e submetidos à ventilação invasiva apresentam maior risco de óbito após hospitalização. É necessário que medidas políticas intersetoriais sejam direcionadas para mitigar os efeitos da pandemia de COVID-19 agravados pela vulnerabilidade social.

El pronóstico de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 no sólo está asociado a la edad y a las comorbilidades, sino que también empeora por la vulnerabilidad social. El presente estudio tiene como objetivo analizar, según la vulnerabilidad social, la supervivencia y la letalidad hospitalaria por COVID-19 durante los primeros 100 días entre los síntomas hasta la muerte en individuos de 50 años o más hospitalizados en Brasil. Se trata de una cohorte retrospectiva desde la Semana Epidemiológica 11 de 2020 hasta la 33 de 2021. El Sistema de Información de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de la Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) proporcionó datos clínico-epidemiológicos. El Índice Socioeconómico del Contexto Geográfico para los Estudios de Salud (GeoSES) midió la vulnerabilidad social. Para la supervivencia se utilizó la curva de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo ajustado de riesgos proporcionales de Cox, con cociente de riesgos (hazard ratio - HR) e intervalos del 95% de confianza (IC95%). Entre los 410.504 casos la letalidad global fue del 42,2%; el 51,4% en los más vulnerables. Por grupos de edad, se registra la presencia de una mayor letalidad a medida que empeora el estatus socioeconómico en todas las categorías; para 50-59 años es el doble. El modelo de Cox ajustado mostró un aumento del 32% en el riesgo de muerte (HR = 1,32; IC95%: 1,24-1,42). Además, los hombres de edad avanzada, de raza negra o indígena, con múltiples comorbilidades y sometidos a ventilación invasiva tienen un mayor riesgo de muerte tras la hospitalización. Es necesario que las medidas políticas intersectoriales se dirijan a mitigar los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19 agravada por la vulnerabilidad social.

Trend incidence of HIV-AIDS according to different diagnostic criteria in Campinas-SP, Brazil from 1980 to 2016. / Tendência da incidência de HIV-aids segundo diferentes critérios diagnósticos em Campinas-SP, Brasil de 1980 a 2016.

The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal trend of the incidence coefficients of HIV-AIDS infection via a retrospective ecological study and segmented regression in individuals older than 13 year reported at SINAN between 1980 and 2016. Of the 14,204 reported cases, 70.9% were male and 39.5% were white. The AIDS criterion presented growing incidence from 1986 to 1996 with Annual Percentual Change (APC) of 108.5% per year between 1983 and 1989 (CI: 90.3 - 128.4), between 1989 and 1998 the APC was 13.2% (CI: 8.2 - 18.3) and APC reduction in the period from 1998 to 2016, -6.2% (CI: -7.4 - -4.9). High coefficients of the death criteria between 1988 and 2002 (4.7/100,000 inhabitants), with a noticeable decrease after 1995. The growth of the HIV+ criteria from 2000 onward was observed, reaching 30.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016. Although incidence rates still remain high in the municipality, these trends are consistent with the positive impact of early detection policies and access to clinical and therapeutic follow-up of individuals with HIV and AIDS in Campinas.

O estudo teve por objetivo analisar a tendência temporal dos coeficientes de incidência da infecção por HIV-aids por meio de estudo ecológico retrospectivo e regressão segmentada em maiores de 13 anos notificados no SINAN entre os anos de 1980 e 2016. Dos 14.204 casos notificados, 70,9% eram do sexo masculino e 39,5% brancos. Nota-se aumento da incidência do critério aids de 1986 a 1996 com variação anual percentual (APC) de 108,5% ao ano entre 1983 a 1989 (IC: 90,3 - 128,4), entre os anos de 1989 e 1998 a APC foi de 13,2% (IC: 8,2 - 18,3) e redução da APC no período de 1998 a 2016, -6,2% (IC: -7,4 - -4,9). Altos coeficientes do critério óbito entre os anos 1988 a 2002 (4,7/100.00 hab.) com queda acentuada após 1995. Observa-se crescimento do critério HIV+ a partir do ano 2000, chegando a 30,2 por 100 mil habitantes em 2016. Embora as taxas de incidência ainda permaneçam altas no município, estas tendências são compatíveis com o impacto positivo das políticas de detecção precoce e acesso ao seguimento clínico e terapêutico dos indivíduos com HIV e aids na cidade.

Brazil in the face of new SARS-CoV-2 variants: emergencies and challenges in public health.

This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis in Brazil.

The objective was to analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence rates in Brazilian states and regions to identify patterns and inequalities. We carried out an ecological study of incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants aged between 20 and 59 years with tuberculosis in Brazil and in their respective states from 2001 to 2017 according to annual percentage change and joinpoint regression. A significant decrease of -15.1% in the annual variation (95%CI: -27.2; -1.0) was observed in Roraima between the years 2003-2007. In the Central Region, Goiás registered an annual average variation of -2.5% per year (95%CI: -3.6; -1.3). Five out of nine Northeastern states had decreasing annual variations throughout the studied series. Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro were the states of the Southeast that presented decreasing between 2001-2017. In the Southern Region, the state of Paraná was the only one with the same annual variation of -3.7% (95%CI: -4.1; -3.2). In Brazil, the average annual percentage change was -1.8% (95%CI: -2.4; -1.1). The results of this study showed a decline in the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil. However, regional and intra-regional differences were observed. Determining the trend pattern of tuberculosis incidence may assist in the planning and implementation of national tuberculosis control policies.

Mapping Brazilian spotted fever: Linking etiological agent, vectors, and hosts.

Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a highly lethal disease in southeastern Brazil. BSF is caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii and is transmitted by the bites of the tick of the genus Amblyomma. The spatial distribution of BSF risk areas is not well known in the country given the complexity of the transmission cycle. This study used the ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to anticipate the potential distribution of the etiological agent (Rickettsia rickettsii), vectors (Amblyomma sculptum and A. dubitatum), and hosts (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, Didelphis aurita, and D. marsupialis) of BSF in Brazil. We compiled occurrence records for all vectors, hosts, and BSF from our own field surveillance, online repositories, and literature. ENM identified BSF risk areas in southeastern and southern Brazil, and anticipated other dispersed suitable areas in the western, central, and northeastern coast regions of Brazil. Tick vectors and mammalian hosts were confined to these same areas; however, host species showed broader suitability in northern Brazil. All species ENMs performed significantly better than random expectations. We also tested the BSF prediction based on 253 additional independent cases identified in our surveillance; the model anticipated 251 out of 253 of these independent cases. Background similarity tests comparing the ENMs of R. rickettsii, tick vectors, and mammalian hosts were unable to reject null hypotheses of niche similarity. Finally, we observed close coincidence between independent BSF cases, and areas suitable for combinations of vectors and hosts, reflecting the ability of these model pairs to anticipate the distribution of BSF cases across Brazil.

Excess deaths associated with the 2014 chikungunya epidemic in Jamaica.

Although traditionally chikungunya virus is considered non-fatal, recent studies suggest that there may be in fact underreporting of deaths in some situations. A major chikungunya epidemic hit Jamaica in 2014 but no chikungunya-associated deaths were reported. We assessed the excess of all-cause deaths during this epidemic. Excess deaths were estimated by difference between observed and expected mortality based on the average age-specific mortality rate of 2012-2013, using the 99% confidence interval. There was an excess of 2,499 deaths during the epidemic (91.9/100,000 population), and a strong positive correlation between the monthly incidence of chikungunya and the excess of deaths (Rho = 0.939, p < 0.005). No significant concomitant epidemiological or climatic phenomenon occurred. Chikungunya is a major contributor to morbidity during epidemics and may be an unrecognized cause of death. Thus, it is urgent to review clinical protocols and improve the investigations of specific-cause deaths during chikungunya epidemics. Excess deaths could be a strategic tool for epidemiological surveillance.

Survival of patients with AIDS and association with level of education level and race/skin color in South and Southeast Brazil: a cohort study, 1998-1999. / Sobrevida de pacientes com aids e associação com escolaridade e raça/cor da pele no Sul e Sudeste do Brasil: estudo de coorte, 1998-1999.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the survival of people with AIDS and association with schooling and race/skin color. METHODS: this was a retrospective cohort study of people diagnosed with AIDS between 1998 and 1999, in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. We used survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method), stratified by schooling and race/skin color and multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression. RESULTS: the study included 2,091 people who had survived at 60 months, with 65% survival among White participants and 62% among Black/brown participants. Irregular use of antiretroviral (HR=11.2 - 95%CI8.8;14.2), and age ≥60 years (HR=2.5 - 95%CI1.4;4.4) were related to lower survival; schooling >8 years (HR=0.4 - 95%CI0.3;0.6) and being female (HR=0.6 - 95%CI0.5;0.8) were positively related to survival; those with less schooling had lower survival. CONCLUSION: lower schooling levels overlap race/skin color differences in relation to survival; these inequalities explain the differences found, despite the policies on universal access to antiretroviral.

Leptospirosis in Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil: 2007-2014. / Leptospirose no município de Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil: 2007 a 2014.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the distribution of leptospirosis according to sociodemographic, epidemiologic, and clinical characteristics, assistance time, rainfall and spatial distribution in Campinas/SP in the period from 2007 to 2014. METHOD: This is an ecological study using information from the confirmed cases. A descriptive analysis was carried out according to the selected variables. The relationship between the cases and rainfall was verified through the Spearman's correlation coefficient. The cases/deaths were georeferenced per areas classified according to socioenvironmental deprivation indexes in Campinas. RESULTS: From the 264 cases, 76.1% occurred in men, 58,4% in the 20 to 49 years old age range. Approximately 55% were hospitalized, with a prevalence of clinical-laboratorial diagnoses of 89.4%, and the lethality was 10.6%. The urban area concentrated 74.2% of the cases, and 48,9% occurred in the household environment. The main risk factor was evidence of the presence of rodents at the site. There was strong correlation between the incidence of cases and rainfall (p < 0.05) in 2010 to 2012. A higher concentration of the cases was observed in the Center-Southwest region. Spatial distribution of cases/deaths showed clusters in regions classified at lower socioeconomic levels. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of occurrence of leptospirosis in Campinas showed similarity with other Brazilian municipalities. The identification of areas with higher incidence of cases/deaths contributes to the adoption of strategies for intervention and prioritization of resources aiming at the reduction of the risk of infection and at early treatment for those affected.

OBJETIVO: Analisar a distribuição de casos e óbitos humanos por leptospirose, segundo características sociodemográficas, epidemiológicas, clínicas, tempo de atendimento, pluviosidade e distribuição espacial em Campinas, São Paulo, no período de 2007 a 2014. MÉTODO: Estudo ecológico utilizando informações dos casos confirmados de leptospirose. Realizou-se análise descritiva dos casos, segundo variáveis selecionadas. A relação entre casos autóctones e pluviosidade foi verificada pelo coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. Georreferenciaram-se casos/óbitos por áreas classificadas segundo indicadores socioambientais. RESULTADOS: Dos 264 casos, 76,1% eram homens e 58,4% tinham entre 20 e 49 anos. Cerca de 55% foram hospitalizados. Prevaleceu o diagnóstico clínico-laboratorial (89,4%) e a letalidade foi de 10,6%. Na área urbana, ocorreram 74,2% dos casos e, 48,9%, no domicílio. O principal fator de risco foi o local com sinal de roedores. Houve forte correlação entre a incidência de casos e a pluviosidade (p < 0,05) nos anos de 2010 a 2012. Observou-se maior concentração de casos na região centro-sudoeste. A distribuição espacial dos casos/óbitos mostrou aglomerados em regiões classificadas como de menor nível socioeconômico. CONCLUSÃO: Os padrões de ocorrência de leptospirose em Campinas, São Paulo, mostraram similaridade com outras cidades brasileiras. A identificação de áreas com maior incidência de casos/óbitos contribui para a adoção de estratégias específicas de intervenção e priorização de recursos na redução do risco de infecção e tratamento precoce dos acometidos pela doença.

Trend of mortality from ischemic heart disease and influenza vaccination in older adults in São Paulo.

The aim of the present study was to analyze the mortality trend due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) among older adults, identify changes in the trend and determine the correlation with influenza vaccine coverage (2000 to 2012) in the state of São Paulo between 1980 and 2012. An ecological time series study was conducted involving secondary data from Brazilian information systems. Linear and polynomial regression models as well as joinpoint regression were used to estimate the trends. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between age-standardized mortality coefficients and vaccine coverage. A decreasing tendency in mortality due to IHD occurred in both sexes, higher mortality rates were found for males and greater reductions were found in the period after the vaccination campaigns. However, no statistically significant changes occurred in the year coinciding with or near the onset of the campaigns. In the overall sample, no evidence of a linear correlation was found between the mortality coefficients and vaccination coverage. Other factors directly associated with morbidity and mortality due to ischemic heart disease may have influenced the trend.

Antibodies and Molecular Detection of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum in Samples of Free-Ranging Marmosets (Primates: Callitrichidae: Callithrix spp.) in an Area of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis in Southeastern Brazil.

Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne parasitic protozoan infection that affects mammals and involves a complex epidemiology. Although dogs are considered the main reservoir in zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the possible presence of other mammalian species acting as reservoirs has been associated as a possible cause of lack of success in the control of human VL in many endemic areas. The knowledge about natural infections of some species is still scarce, such as nonhuman primates (NHP), especially from the genus Callithrix (marmosets). We investigated the infection by Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum, the agent of VL in the Americas, in 26 marmosets captured monthly, from April 2014 to March 2015, in an environmentally protected area (EPA) in Southeastern Brazil. The EPA has undergone significant environmental changes and has a transmission focus of canine VL since 2009. Serology was performed through the direct agglutination test, which detected low antibody titers in seven marmosets (7/26; 26.9%, 95% confidence interval 9.9-44.0), being five Callithrix penicillata (black-tufted-ear marmoset) and two Callithrix jacchus (white-tufted-ear marmoset). The presence of the DNA of Leishmania was investigated in blood and skin samples by PCR and genetic sequencing. This is the first report of the detection of L. (L.) infantum in the skin of a marmoset, which was verified in a sample from one C. penicillata. The results demonstrate the natural infection of marmosets by L. (L.) infantum and may suggest the participation of these animals as hosts in the parasite's transmission cycle in the EPA. However, more comprehensive studies are needed to elucidate their role on the VL epidemiology in this area and also in different endemic areas, especially because these NHP are increasingly in contact with humans and domestic animals, particularly due to environmental changes.

[Mortality due to cerebrovascular disease among the elderly and vaccination against influenza: São Paulo State, Brazil, 1980-2012]. / Mortalidade por doenças cerebrovasculares em idosos e a vacinação contra a influenza: Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, 1980-2012.

This study describes the trend of the coefficients of mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases (CbVD) among the elderly in São Paulo State, Brazil, from 1980 to 2012, before and after influenza vaccination campaigns, and identifies change points. It is an ecological, time-series study carried out with death data from the Health Ministry's Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We used linear, polynomial and joinpoint regression models in the data analysis. Between 1980 and 2012, there were 480,955 deaths due to CbVD. The mean mortality coefficients decreased for both sexes in all age groups we analyzed, with the greatest reduction in the older ages and male sex. We observed a significant reduction in the mortality trend in 1998 for male sex in the age group 60-69 years (annual percent change - APC = -3%, 95%CI: -4.3; -1.6) and for all elderly (APC = -3.8%, 95%CI: -4.4; -3.1). Considering the period as a whole, we did not observe change points for the age group 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3.3%, 95%CI: -3.5; -3.1) and, for male sex, for the group ≥ 80 years (AAPC = -2.9%, 95%CI: -3.1; -2.6). For all elderly, the mean percentage reduction was of 3.1% per year (AAPC = -3.1%, 95%CI: -3.5; -2.7). Results show a reduction in the mortality due to CbVD in the period, with different percentage variations in coefficient reduction. The study's findings add information to the debate regarding possible effects of vaccination campaigns in reducing mortality due to CbVD among the elderly.

Este estudo descreve a tendência dos coeficientes de mortalidade por doenças cerebrovasculares (DCbV) em idosos no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1980 e 2012, antes e depois das campanhas de vacinação contra a influenza, e identifica pontos de mudanças. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico de série temporal, realizado com dados de óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde e dados populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Para análise dos dados, foram utilizados modelos de regressão linear, polinomial e joinpoint regression. Entre 1980 e 2012, foram registrados 480.955 óbitos por DCbV. Os coeficientes médios de mortalidade diminuíram em ambos os sexos para todas as faixas etárias analisadas, com maior redução nas idades mais longevas e no sexo masculino. Observou-se queda significativa na tendência de mortalidade em 1998 para o sexo masculino, na faixa de 60-69 anos (annual percent change - APC = -3%, IC95%: -4,3; -1,6) e para o total dos idosos (APC = -3,8%, IC95%: -4,4; -3,1). Considerando-se o período como um todo, não se observaram pontos de mudanças para a faixa de 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3,3%, IC95%: -3,5; -3,1) e, no sexo masculino, para o grupo ≥ 80 anos (AAPC = -2,9%, IC95%: -3,1; -2,6). Para o total de idosos, a redução percentual média foi de 3,1% ao ano (AAPC = -3,1%, IC95%: -3,5; -2,7). Os resultados mostraram redução da mortalidade por DCbV no período estudado, com diferentes variações percentuais de queda dos coeficientes. Os achados deste estudo adicionam informações para o debate sobre o possível efeito das campanhas de vacinação na redução da mortalidade por DCbV na população idosa.

Este estudio describe la tendencia de los coeficientes de mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares (DCbV) en ancianos del Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1980 y 2012, antes y después de las campañas de vacunación contra la gripe, e identifica puntos de cambio. Se trata de un estudio ecológico de serie temporal, realizado con datos de óbitos del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad del Ministerio de la Salud y datos poblacionales del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Para el análisis de los datos se utilizaron modelos de regresión lineal, polinomial y regresión joinpoint. Entre 1980 y 2012, se registraron 480.955 óbitos por DCbV. Los coeficientes medios de mortalidad disminuyeron en ambos sexos, en todas las franjas de edad analizadas, con una mayor reducción en las edades más longevas y dentro del sexo masculino. Se observó una caída significativa en la tendencia de la mortalidad en 1998 en el sexo masculino, en la franja de 60-69 años (annual percent change - APC = -3%, IC95%: -4,3; -1,6) y para el total de los ancianos (APC = -3,8%, IC95%: -4,4; -3,1). Considerándose el período como un todo, no se observaron puntos de cambios para la franja de 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3,3%, IC95%: -3,5; -3,1) y en el sexo masculino para el grupo ? 80 años (AAPC = -2,9%, IC95%: -3,1; -2,6). Para el total de ancianos, la reducción del porcentaje medio fue 3,1% al año (AAPC = -3,1%, IC95%: -3,5; -2,7). Los resultados mostraron la reducción de la mortalidad por DCbV en el período estudiado, con diferentes variaciones porcentuales de caída de los coeficientes. Los hallazgos de este estudio añaden información para el debate sobre el posible efecto de las campañas de vacunación en la reducción de la mortalidad por DCbV dentro de la población anciana.

[Climatic aspects in hantavirus transmission areas in São Paulo State, Brazil]. / Aspectos climáticos em áreas de transmissão de hantavirose no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil.

The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution of reported hantavirus cases in São Paulo State, Brazil (n = 80), from 1993 to 2005 and identify local climatic patterns during this period. Kernel point estimation of density was used to show the highest concentrations in Ribeirão Preto, São Carlos, Franca, Tupi Paulista, and Greater São Paulo. Increase in the number of cases during this period suggests disease dissemination even when considering increased diagnostic capacity and higher sensitivity of the health services. There was a marked seasonal variation in hantavirus in the cerrado (savannah) areas; the common pattern is a higher incidence in drier months as compared to mean levels in the last 40 years. These coincide with periods of high rodent food source levels in grains, sugarcane, and other crops. Harvesting and storing grains increases human exposure to rodents. Climatic indicators together with ecological variables can be local transmission risk markers and should receive more attention in epidemiological monitoring and control of the disease.