Seasonal patterns in newborns' health: Quantifying the roles of climate, communicable disease, economic and social factors.

Poor health at birth can have long-term consequences for children's development. This paper analyses an important factor associated with health at birth: the time of year that the baby is born, and hence seasonal risks they were exposed to in utero. There are multiple potential explanations for seasonality in newborns' health. Most previous research has examined these in isolation. We therefore do not know which explanations are most important - and hence which policy interventions would most effectively reduce the resulting early-life inequalities. In this paper, I use administrative data to estimate and compare the magnitudes of several seasonal risks, seeking to identify the most important drivers of seasonality in the Northern Territory of Australia, a large territory spanning tropical and arid climates and where newborn health varies dramatically with the seasons. I find that the most important explanations are heat exposure and disease prevalence. Seasonality in food prices and road accessibility have smaller effects on some outcomes. Seasonal fertility patterns, rainfall and humidity do not have statistically significant effects. I conclude that interventions that protect pregnant women from seasonal disease and heat exposure would likely improve newborn health in the Northern Territory, with potential long-term benefits for child development. It is likely that similar impacts would apply in other locations with tropical and arid climates, and that, without action, climate change will accentuate these risks.

Unintended consequences of welfare reform: Evidence from birthweight of Aboriginal children in Australia.

In 2007, Australia introduced its most radical welfare reform in recent history, targeting Aboriginal communities with the aim of protecting children from harm. The 'income management' policy forced Aboriginal welfare recipients to spend at least half of their government transfers on essentials (e.g. food, housing), and less on non-essentials (e.g. alcohol, tobacco). By exploiting its staggered rollout, we estimate the impact of in utero exposure to the policy rollout on birthweight. We find that exposure to the income management policy reduced average birthweight robustly by 85 g and increased the risk of low birth weight by 3 percentage points. This finding is not explained by behavioral change (fertility, maternal risk behavior, access to care), or survival probabilities of at-risk fetuses. More likely, a lack of policy implementation planning and infrastructure led to acute income insecurity and stress during the rollout period, exacerbating the existing health inequalities it sought to address.