Risk clusters of COVID-19 transmission in northeastern Brazil: prospective space-time modelling.

This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceará and Maranhão. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceará state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.

COVID-19 mortality in an area of northeast Brazil: epidemiological characteristics and prospective spatiotemporal modelling.

This study aimed to analyse the spatial-temporal distribution of COVID-19 mortality in Sergipe, Northeast, Brazil. It was an ecological study utilising spatiotemporal analysis techniques that included all deaths confirmed by COVID-19 in Sergipe, from 2 April to 14 June 2020. Mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 inhabitants and the temporal trends were analysed using a segmented log-linear model. For spatial analysis, the Kernel estimator was used and the crude mortality rates were smoothed by the empirical Bayesian method. The space-time prospective scan statistics applied the Poisson's probability distribution model. There were 391 COVID-19 registered deaths, with the majority among ⩾60 years old (62%) and males (53%). The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (40%), diabetes (31%) and cardiovascular disease (15%). An increasing mortality trend across the state was observed, with a higher increase in the countryside. An active spatiotemporal cluster of mortality comprising the metropolitan area and neighbouring cities was identified. The trend of COVID-19 mortality in Sergipe was increasing and the spatial distribution of deaths was heterogeneous with progression towards the countryside. Therefore, the use of spatial analysis techniques may contribute to surveillance and control of COVID-19 pandemic.

Frequency of specific anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM, IgA and IgE in colombian patients with acute and chronic ocular toxoplasmosis.

We studied the frequency of specific anti-Toxoplasma IgM, IgA and IgE antibodies in serum of 28 immunocompetent Colombian patients, selected by ophthalmologists and with lesions that were compatible with ocular toxoplasmosis. Patients were classified in three groups: (i) group 1 consisted of ten patients with a first episode; (ii) group 2, with seven patients with a recurrence and (iii) group 3, consisted of eleven patients with chronic chorioretinal lesion without uveitis. We found that 10/28 (35%) of Colombian patients with ocular toxoplasmosis possessed at least one serological marker for Toxoplasma infection different from IgG. In group 1 (first episode), we found simultaneous presence of specific IgM plus IgA plus IgE in 1/10 (10%). In group 2 (recurrences) in 1/7 (14%) we found IgM and IgA test positives and in 1/7 (14%) we found IgM and IgE tests positives. In group 3 (toxoplasmic chorioretinal scar) the IgA serological test was positive in 2/11 (18%). These results show that serum IgM or IgA or IgE can be present during recurrences.