Foregone healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic: early survey estimates from 39 low- and middle-income countries.

In addition to the direct health effects of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the pandemic has increased the risks of foregone non-COVID-19 healthcare. Likely, these risks are greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where health systems are less resilient and economies more fragile. However, there are no published studies on the prevalence of foregone healthcare in LMICs during the pandemic. We used pooled data from phone surveys conducted between April and August 2020, covering 73 638 households in 39 LMICs. We estimated the prevalence of foregone care and the relative importance of various reported reasons for foregoing care, disaggregated by country income group and region. In the sample, 18.8% (95% CI 17.8-19.8%) of households reported not being able to access healthcare when needed. Financial barriers were the most-commonly self-reported reason for foregoing care, cited by 31.4% (28.6-34.3%) of households. More households in wealthier countries reported foregoing care for reasons related to COVID-19 [27.2% (22.5-31.8%) in upper-middle-income countries compared to 8.0% (4.7-11.3%) in low-income countries]; more households in poorer countries reported foregoing care due to financial reasons [65.6% (59.9-71.2%)] compared to 17.4% (13.1-21.6%) in upper-middle-income countries. A substantial proportion of households in LMICs had to forgo healthcare in the early months of the pandemic. While in richer countries this was largely due to fear of contracting COVID-19 or lockdowns, in poorer countries foregone care was due to financial constraints.

Reaching the global target to reduce stunting: an investment framework.

Childhood stunting, being short for one's age, has life-long consequences for health, human capital and economic growth. Being stunted in early childhood is associated with slower cognitive development, reduced schooling attainment and adult incomes decreased by 5-53%. The World Health Assembly has endorsed global nutrition targets including one to reduce the number of stunted children under five by 40% by 2025. The target has been included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG target 2.2). This paper estimates the cost of achieving this target and develops scenarios for generating the necessary financing. We focus on a key intervention package for stunting (KIPS) with strong evidence of effectiveness. Annual scale-up costs for the period of 2016-25 were estimated for a sample of 37 high burden countries and extrapolated to all low and middle income countries. The Lives Saved Tool was used to model the impact of the scale-up on stunting prevalence. We analysed data on KIPS budget allocations and expenditure by governments, donors and households to derive a global baseline financing estimate. We modelled two financing scenarios, a 'business as usual', which extends the current trends in domestic and international financing for nutrition through 2025, and another that proposes increases in financing from all sources under a set of burden-sharing rules. The 10-year financial need to scale up KIPS is US$49.5 billion. Under 'business as usual', this financial need is not met and the global stunting target is not reached. To reach the target, current financing will have to increase from US$2.6 billion to US$7.4 billion a year on average. Reaching the stunting target is feasible but will require large coordinated investments in KIPS and a supportive enabling environment. The example of HIV scale-up over 2001-11 is instructive in identifying the factors that could drive such a global response to childhood stunting.

Reaching the Global Target to Increase Exclusive Breastfeeding: How Much Will It Cost and How Can We Pay for It?

There is an urgent need for global action to increase the rates of exclusive breastfeeding. In 2012, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set a global target to increase the rate of exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months up to at least 50% by 2025. However, current investment levels are insufficient to drive the kind of progress that is needed to meet the target. Reaching the global nutrition target of increasing exclusive breastfeeding to 50% will require an average annual investment of $570 million over 10 years in addition to what is currently being spent. This investment is projected to result in an additional 105 million children being exclusively breastfed and at least 520,000 child deaths prevented over the next 10 years. This analysis was part of an investment framework developed by the World Bank, Results for Development Institute, and 1,000 Days to provide policy makers with a roadmap for how to reach four of the six WHA global nutrition targets: decreasing childhood stunting, decreasing childhood wasting, decreasing rates of anemia in women of reproductive age, and increasing exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months.